Top movies of summer 2007

[Clipsfan]

It appears that my fairly aggressive (and record-setting) estimate of $137.6 million in domestic box office for the past weekend was low. Early estimates are that Spidey pulled in $148 million, setting individual records for the highest box office ever on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. With another weekend with no competition (Go see 28 Weeks Later!) Spidey should continue to rack in the $$.

[JasonEvans]

Of the 65 people to vote in our poll, only 59 picked Spiderman as one of the 3 top grossing moves if the summer.

If you are one of the 6 who did not vote for Spidey, I'd love to hear your rationalle at this point...

...And can I have some of what you are smoking?

-Jason "it will be over 250 million by the end of next weekend" Evans

[Dukerati]

I agree with Udaman's point about the recent overabundance of animated films with animals which was the deciding factor for me of Transformers over Ratatouille. I also like the fact that Transformers already has a huge built-in audience from all who watched the show as kids (me among them) in addition to Shia LeBouf who I am guessing will draw in even more of the all-important younger demographic...

[Clipsfan]

-Jason "it will be over 250 million by the end of next weekend" Evans

I think that's a very safe guess, considering that it's already at $161MM and somehow brought in $10MM yesterday (on a Monday, not during summer!) That's more than any movie brought in the prior weekend!

[Udaman]

Hard to argue with making $242M after only 10 days...but this weekend saw a 60% drop for Spidey, and the studio can spin it all they want...but fact is that is pretty big.

This weekend they have Shrek, which will dominate, and next weekend comes Pirates, which targets the Spidey audience big time.

Fact is, I don't see Spidey 3 beating either Spidey 2 or the original in total box office take. Not surprising...because it wasn't that good (at least in my opinion). Put it this way - I saw both Spidey and Spidey 2 twice at the theaters. I also own both on DVD. No way will I see 3 again, and doubt very seriously I will buy it. I think many others are in this boat as well.

[Cavlaw]

Well, I'm one of the folks who hasn't seen Spiderman yet. I believe I will eventually see it in theaters, although I lost a lot of excitement for it way back when I heard they had gone with the multi-villan angle that has pitifully diluted and ruined pretty much every franchise that's done it, and the lukewarm reviews don't help.

My wife and I just don't go to the theater very often, and I had hoped to go for Spidey. After spending the last 4 weeks in the office I think I see a break in the clouds coming up this weekend... right when Shrek opens. I think Shrek wins that one. Then Pirates opens, and I htink it's a coin flip between Spiderman and Pirate - as unenthused as I've become about spidey lately, Pirates 2 has me down on that, too. I may end up not seeing either until they come out on DVD or HBO...

[JasonEvans]

Hard to argue with making $242M after only 10 days...but this weekend saw a 60% drop for Spidey, and the studio can spin it all they want...but fact is that is pretty big.

This weekend they have Shrek, which will dominate, and next weekend comes Pirates, which targets the Spidey audience big time.

Fact is, I don't see Spidey 3 beating either Spidey 2 or the original in total box office take. Not surprising...because it wasn't that good (at least in my opinion). Put it this way - I saw both Spidey and Spidey 2 twice at the theaters. I also own both on DVD. No way will I see 3 again, and doubt very seriously I will buy it. I think many others are in this boat as well.

I agree that this was a very tough weekend for Spidey. The dropoff speaks to some poor word-of-mouth and not much repeat business.

Spidey will still end up making something in the range of $350 million and will easily be one of the top 5 movies of the summer, but I don't think it will pierce $400 million and I think it will end up as the #2 or #3 movie of the summer overall. It is a huge success, but also has to be seen as a disappointment.

If I was Toby M, Dunst, or Sam Rami I would have no interest at all in doing a 4th one. Sony may throw obscene money at them to try it, but I think they'd be wise to stop here.

-Jason "I am seeing a sneak of Shrek this week-- early word of mouth is not all that great" Evans

[Udaman]

Spidey was down another 50% this weekend. Basically stick a fork in it.

It might (though highly doubtful) end up catching Spidey 2, which came in at $373M. Right now it is sitting at $281, and with the bad reviews, Shrek 3 and now Pirates coming at it full blast, next weekend it will likely make less than $20M. It has zero chance of catching the first one (at $403M).

The two big questions to me now are:

1) Will Shrek 3 do better overall than Spidey 2? Too close to call. I don't think Shrek will drop 60% (like Spidey did)...but a portion of the audience will be taken from Pirates, and then 2 weeks later Surf's Up comes out (and then Fantastic Four, and then 2 weeks later Ratatouille). My prediction, Shrek does $65M next weekend, then $40M the week after that. In the end, these two movies will be neck and neck for total box office take - my guess is Shrek will barely win.

2) How much will Pirates end up doing? It all depends upon reviews. If people like this last one - it should beat both Shrek and Spidey (something I think will happen). I do bet it has an opening of about $125M, and only falls about 30% in week 2 (to around $80M).

Still feel the top 5 will be Pirates, Shrek, Spidey, Evan and Transformers

[JasonEvans]

I thought it was time to bring this post back to the top of the board again to see how folks did in their predictions. Pretty much everyone picke the three obvious ones (Shrek, Spider, Pirates) that all look to be top 5. Anyone who picked Oceans 13 is not doing well. Fantastic Four looks like it will probably come up short too. As others have mentioned, the reviews for Evan look horrid.

Hmmm, need to look at this some more to figure it out. My top 5 are still alive as I had the Threequels plus Rat and Harry Potter.

-Jason "on vacation... back on Monday" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Still feel the top 5 will be Pirates, Shrek, Spidey, Evan and Transformers

Care to revise that, Udaman? Evan is going to struggle to get to $150 million (I bet it stalls around $125-$135 million).

I must admit, after poo-pooing Transformers during the pre-summer discussion, I think it is going to be a big hit. The early reviews are very strong and the public is starving for a good sci-fi thrill ride after action-adventure stories like Pirates and Spidey were disappointing.

I think it is going to come down to Rats vs. Robots for the fifth movie in the top 5.

I think Potter 5 is a virtual sure-thing for our top 5. There is yet to be a Potter movie that made less than $250 million and this one is going to benefit from the massive hype of the 7th book coming out. It will be interesting to see what director David Yates does with this film. He is not a known commodity in Hollywood but has a reputation as a brilliant director in the UK (apparently, JK asked for him as she loved his work on TV).

Rats vs. Robots-- which will make more?

-Jason "again, I saw Ratatouille a few weeks ago and it was fabulous!" Evans

[Dukerati]

I agree with Jason on Potter. I thought it was a shoo-in for the top 5 at the start of the summer and the slowly building crescendo of hype has me feeling good about its chances.

If Robots win (and I am predicting it will), I would have been spot on with my movie predictions. I must admit that I am surprised at how well Ratatouille has been received (although I shouldn't have been - I didn't bother to check that Brad Bird had written it - stupid! stupid! stupid!) but I was scared off by the relatively lukewarm success of Pixar's previous film, Cars, and thought it might become a bit of a trend.

Go autobots!

[DevilAlumna]

What is this belief that Transformers will be huge? I really think that movie will open big (80+ million) and then just die. Its appeal is so limited. No one over the age of 40 will go see it, no females will go see it, teens think of Transformers as baby toys. Do you really think the 20-ish male audience can drive it to $200+ million?!?!

I must admit, after poo-pooing Transformers during the pre-summer discussion, I think it is going to be a big hit. The early reviews are very strong and the public is starving for a good sci-fi thrill ride after action-adventure stories like Pirates and Spidey were disappointing.

Wow - I watched the HBO "First Look" for Transformers, and have totally done a 180. I never watched the cartoon, so have no attachment to to concept whatsoever (I was more a He-Man/She-Ra fan.) My husband & I made a deal that he would go see "Knocked up" with me, and I would in kind see "Transformers" with him.

But after watching the special, I can't wait to see it! I didn't realize what a good cast it has (no guarantees of greatness, but still a good sign), and after seeing some of the machines, plus the special effects that enhance them, it looks like something not to be missed on the big screen. Color me impressed.

After seeing a few more trailers/reviews for Die Hard 12, I'm a little more positive about it; I'm also beginning to wonder if Potter's going to be too dark for younger audiences, and too grim for a summer crowd in general. All this talk of Daniel Radcliffe exploring Harry's moody, emotional side just doesn't scream out, "fun!"

[Cavlaw]

The reviews I've seen have pegged it as a pleasant surprise, but without staying power and no appeal for a second viewing. It's not one I plan to see, but might do very well in the first couple weeks based on the hype.

[DevilAlumna]

We've got tickets to see Transformers tonight; I'll post my thoughts tomorrow.

[Udaman]

Missed the boat on Evan Almighty, that's for sure (pa dum dum). The only good thing about it, is that I saw it after reading all the massively negative reviews, and thus went in with rock bottom expectations, and then sort of enjoyed it. But...only because it wasn't as bad as I was thinking it would be.

A real shame - that premise could have been great. (Spoilers) The biggest disappointment by far was the lack of religious believers around. I mean, if a guy starts building an ark and suddenly lots of animals show up in pairs, there would be thousands and thousands of followers there. Guess they couldn't really do that...but to not even address it made the show seem really dumb. That, and the fact that everyone kept saying Evan was crazy, when clearly they could see that a beard doesn't grow in 1 day, that animals don't follow people around, and that building an ark in a week is impossible. That, and the fact that Evan was completely different than in the first film....yes, I could go on and on.

So Spidey, Shrek and Pirates are a sure thing. I'm thinking Transformers will be top 5 for sure as well. That leaves one spot. Most seem to feel it will be Harry Potter (and that is the best bet)...but I still think that the last book will really hurt their sales, and that of all the books, #5 was the least favorite of a bunch of people I know. It will all depend on the opening weekend. If it pulls in north of $90M, then it will finish in the top 5. If not, then it will be between the rat, Bourne Ultimatum and Homer Simpson.

[mapei]

Every one of these movies seems dreadful to me! They seem all made for restless teenagers - or younger. Compare to the thread on all-time greats that we did some weeks ago.

[dukestheheat]

Jason!

What about 'Surf's Up!'? I laughed my head off at that one, on a day when I needed to laugh my head off. In fact, I need that today. I'm a total kid at heart and heck I even do stuff that you'd think was 'kidly', so I'm going to like that type of movie. I bet if you added it to the poll (which I know is closed) you'd get some votes. If you haven't taken your fam to see it, I do recommend it.

dth.

[JasonEvans]

Oh it will fall more than 25% each weekend-- probably more like a 35-40% drop next weekend, which would still be very strong as most movies drop 50% their second weekend.

But, just in case you were not aware, people go to see movies Monday - Thursday in addition to the weekends. Ratatouille will make about $4 million a day over the next 4 days before next weekend.

I stand by my prediction that it will get to $200 million. I think it may come up short of $250 million, which is a real pity and surprises me quite a bit. I think word of mouth will help it a lot though and it will remain strong for a long time -- well into August when kids go back to school. This is the kind of flick that will do repeat business.

Check back with me in a month and we'll see if it is going to make it to $200 mill. I think you'll be surprised.

-Jason "word of mouth on Rat will be BIG" Evans

First of all, I was 50-50 on my Rat predicitons. It did a ton better during the week than I thought, pulling in 7-10 million a day, almost twice what I predicted and a clear sign that word of mouth is going well.

I was dead on target with my prediction of what the 2nd weekend would be. Rat dropped 38% and made almmost $30 million in its 2nd weekend. It is now at $109 million and still going pretty strong. Harry Potter skews older but will be tough competition next week. Still, I think the strength of Potter may be a good thing for Potter fans as families with kids under 10 who go to the theater and find Potter sold out will be more likely to default to Rat as a backup versus anything else in theaters today. In any event, I feel even better about my $200 prediction today than I did a week ago.

That said, I am ready to concede that I missed on one of the top 5 movies of the summer. Transformers is clearly going to get into the top 5. I blew it on that one. This flick is going to be huge. It has now passed $152 million in one week of release and did $67 million over the weekend despite opening on Monday. This flick is going to soar past $250 million and may end up around $300 million. I don't think it can catch Spidey for the year's #1 film, but it could still catch Pirates (will end up just a little north of $300 mil) and maybe even Shrek (will end up close to $320 mil).

Potter opens next week. The reviews are pretty good so far but the Potter story is becoming more and more a drama and less fantasy and action starting with this book. The story also gets darker and more somber here so I think this film may have trouble doing massive business. I still think it will make more than $200 million, probably around $250 million. I'll be able to guage it a lot more after Monday night, when I see an early screening of it. Yes, I am a lucky man

Will there be anything else to challenge the 6 top films of summer (Rat, Potter, Transformers, and the 3 threequels)?

Die Hard is a fun ride (wife nad I saw it last night) but it is currently at $84 million in total boxoffice after doing $17 million this weekend. It is going to be a success (it will be very big overseas), but I don't see it getting to where these other 6 do. Knocked Up (#132 mill/5 mill this weekend) and Fantastic Four (123 mill/4 mill this weekend)) both look like they are going to stall short of $150 million.

Simpsons, Bourne Supremacy, and Rush Hour 3 are the only other contenders and I don't see any of those getting to the $200 mill needed to crack the top 5 (or top 6).

-Jason "as an aside, I saw about 15 minutes worth of Sunshine a few days ago and it looks amazing!! I am a big Danny Boyle fan and like Cillian Murphy too" Evans

[Udaman]

So Potter is now a lock for the top 5. That leaves really one spot (because the others are Spidey, Shrek and Pirates).

Right now the best bet is the Rat (though $200M still looks really iffy) - if it falls 35% a week from here on out...it will likely end right around that mark, any more and it doesn't make it.

No other movie out now has a chance to get into the top 5, so it would have to be The Simpsons or Bourne Ultimatum.

Incidentally, saw Potter for the 2nd time, and it was still just as good in my opinion. This movie could finish 2nd for the summer (though I still think the book will hurt things this coming weekend).

[JasonEvans]

So Potter is now a lock for the top 5. That leaves really one spot (because the others are Spidey, Shrek and Pirates).

Right now the best bet is the Rat (though $200M still looks really iffy) - if it falls 35% a week from here on out...it will likely end right around that mark, any more and it doesn't make it.

No other movie out now has a chance to get into the top 5, so it would have to be The Simpsons or Bourne Ultimatum.

Incidentally, saw Potter for the 2nd time, and it was still just as good in my opinion. This movie could finish 2nd for the summer (though I still think the book will hurt things this coming weekend).

Huh? What about Transformers? I have now conceded that it will be in the top 5. I was wrong on that one. I think it stays ahead of Rat all summer long. Rat will top $200 million, but Transformers will get well past $250 and will probably come very close to touching the $300 mark.

We know the Top 5, IMO, all that is left is the order. I think Transformers comes up short of Spidey and Shrek but maybe passes Pirates. Still too early to tell what happens to Potter going forward but I don't think it will pass $300 million. I bet it ends up 4th or 5th out of the top 5.

Rat comes in 6th.

--Jason "pity, cause I think Rat is easily the best film of any of them" Evans