Harry Potter 5
Fantastic Four 2
What will be really big at the boxoffice-- vote for your top 5.
I'm voting for Kickin It Old Skool, despite the fact that there already was a South Park episode like it. It's difficult for me to admit this, but I'm a closet fan of Malibu's Most Wanted
I'm a little surprised there are no votes for Evan Almighty so far. That will be the funniest movie of the summer. I have a hard time figuring out which movie it replaces in the top 5, but it is PG and if they keep the humor mostly clean they could get a nice family crowd too.
If the Christian Right decides it is not blasphemous but is good for people's faith in God then it will be the #1 movie of the summer.
Damn-- I voted too soon.
-Jason "oh well, I can't figure out which of the huge sequels plus Rat that I would leave out of the Top 5 anyway" Evans
I doubt that Die Hard will be in the top 5, but maybe it should have been on the list to be ignored
Unfortunately, the question isn't which 5 movies will be best, but rather which ones will get people to flock in droves? Die Hard fits neither category, I guess.
A decent number of people voted in this thread, but very few stated anything regarding their opinions. At my work we're having a pool to choose the top movies, and I'm torn as to what order to put them in (not to mention the 5th one). The tie-breaker will be the biggest opening weekend (movie and total), but I'm guessing that will be Spiderman this coming weekend (probably close to the $135MM or so that Pirates brought in last year).
Here are my thoughts on the biggest 5, I'd love to hear others. I'm only talking domestic, btw.
1) Spiderman 3 - People love the franchise. The second movie actually did better than the first, and everyone knows how much was spent on the special effects for this one. Supposedly not a great story, but people will still see it. It's the first big movie to hit the theaters in a while, and after having few choices other than Disturbia people will flock to see it. It has 2 full weekends to bring in the money.
2) Pirates - Hard to argue with the franchise that just keeps bringing in the $$$. However, the second one wasn't all that great, and there may be only so much prancing that people want to watch Depp do. Also head to head with Shrek's second weekend.
3) Shrek - Will suffer slightly from facing off against Pirates, even though the two aim for slightly different demos. The key issue is that there should be a longer tail for Shrek, so it may start off slower but retain some momentum. Shrek 2's multiple was around 4X opening B.O.
4) Harry Potter - I'm not sure whether this should be higher, but it only has one weekend to itself and many people may spend time reading the 7th book the second weekend anyway, rather than watching the movie. I find it hard to care enough to watch the movies when they're on HBO, and BO has never been as large as the prequels to the movies above (last was around $290MM).
5) Really hard for me to call. Most likely are: Evan Almighty, Ratatouille, Transformers. Transformers is likely to bring in big bucks over the 4th, but I don't see much staying power. Evan Almighty's trailer just doesn't look that great to me, and although Carell has some cache now, he's not the sort to drive a $250MM movie. I know nothing about Rat, although Pixar movies tend to clean house. Should any of these even be higher?
Any thoughts are welcome!
Last edited by Clipsfan; 05-02-2007 at 01:25 PM.
I think Spidey will clean up because it has two weekends with no competition...and then still has two more of the busy May period, including Memorial Day weekend. And when people can't get into Shrek May 18th, they'll go see Spidey. When they can't get into Pirates, or Shrek May 25th...they'll go see Spidey. So I would have Spidey #1. Even if some reviews are coming in mixed.
#2 I have Pirates. Fact is the 2nd one did $423M, and it got panned by most critics (I actually liked it OK, especially after reading the negative reviews). This one also opens on a big weekend, then has nothing after it for a while. The week after is nothing. Two weeks after is just Oceans 11 (not a family flick). Three weeks afterwards is Fantastic Four...but when that sells out, people will go see Pirates.
#3 will be Shrek. Just too solid a franchise not to do well, and they seem to have this down right. Plus it is the one truly kid flick out until June 29th.
so that leaves #4 and #5, and here is where it gets tough. You really have Evan Almighty, Harry Potter, Transformers, Ratatouille, The Simpsons Movie, Fantastic Four and Oceans 11 fighting for these. I would vote off Oceans 11 because of its lack of appeal to kids. I think Harry Potter will have a huge opening...but then struggle when everyone is reading the book (as you mention). Fantastic Four will do OK, but after it comes out there are major movies four weekends in a row to steal its audience. So then you have Evan Almighty, Transformers, Ratatouille and The Simpsons Movie. My vote is Evan Almighty (look at how well Bruce Almighty did) and The Transformers. I think Ratatouille will be hurt by the fact that there have been a lot of rat movies for kids, and it has major competition the next few weeks.
I submitted my responses. For the record, they didn't change much from my thoughts above, and at least one other person here has the same choices.
Biggest 3-day weekend: $137.64MM (I'm guessing it will be this weekend)
Let's see if I'm right
This is really hard-- naming the top 5 is easy, in my opinion, but putting them in order. That's a lot tougher.
1. I'm gonna go with Spiderman here. The film is shattering boxoffice records all over the world already and having 2 weekends to make its mark is a huge bonus. Plus, by leading off the summer it benefits from the pent up demand for a good new movie (nothign worth a damn has been released in a long time). Lots of folks talk about it having 2 weeks beore Shrek comes out but I think the real competition for a teen-young adult skewing movie like this won't come for another week when Pirates opens. Shrek skews much younger than Spiderman so I could see Spidey being north of $120 million the first weekend, $70 million the second, and above $40 million the third weekend. That's just too big a headstart on the rest of the competition.
2. Pirates - Like Spidey, Pirates will get 2 weekends without much competition. The buzz on this one is really strong even with the last one being so mediocre. If a so-so Pirates could do $420 million, what will a good one do?!?! If any movie beats Spidey, it will be this one. I am really tempted to flip-flop these two in my picks. The advantage that Pirates has on EVERYTHING else is that this franchise has shown strength in all demographics. It does not overskew male or female or young or old-- everyone likes Capt. Jack and his mates.
3. Shrek 3 - They've hit 2 homeruns and there is no reason not to think they will hit a third. Number 2 was actually a far bigger success than the first one was. I have not been overwhelmed with the trailer though and I wodner if the youngsters who fell in love with the first two are getting too old for Shrek to be cool to them anymore (my 10-year-old is lukewarm on this film). Still, they've done such a good job making the jokes work for adults, this has got to be a huge flick. I also think the stunt casting of Justin Timberlake as Artie (young King Arthur) could help with boxoffice a little bit. By the way, Shrek 4 is already in the works.
4. Potter 5 - I think this movie will set an opening weekend record. Right now the oepning weekend record is held by Pirates 2 with $135 million. I think Spidey or Pirates 3 will have a good chance to top that. But, whatever the record is, I think Potter 5 will top it. The Potter-mania will be out-of-control by the time this flick opens. Everyone will be dying for the 7th book and will take the 5th movie as an appetizer. Plus, the trailer looks fabulous. What's more, I think all the tak of the 2nd weekend sucking as folks read the book are overblown. Lots of people who read the book will take a break from reading to go to the theater. And I think that after the book is done, people will be so Potter crazed that this film could have a big third weekend. While I am predicitng 4th place for it, I won't be surprised if it finishes as high as 2nd.
5. Ok, everyone says this is the tough pick (though I disagree). Last year the #5 film of the summer made $200 million (Superman). This summer it may take a little bit more than $200 mill to take the #5 spot so we have to see which film can reach that lofty figure.
Evan Almighty will be the funniest movie of the summer but adult comedies rarly reach that kind of level. Bruce Almighty did $240 million but Steve Carrell is no Jim Carey. I think Evan Almighy has a decent chance to get to #5, but will come up just a little bit short.
Transformers and Fantastic Four have just a little too much cheeze-factor to bring in women or the over 30-set. I actually think Transformers could be the bomb of the summer (only make about $120 million) because teen boys may consider it too young a film to be cool.
The Simpsons attracts less than 7 million viewers a week when it airs for free on TV. If every one of them goes to the movies, that's just a $70 million dollar boxoffice take. For that film to top $200 million it would need to hit 3x as many people as it does when it airs on TV. That's a tall order.
And all that leads us to Ratatouille. As you all know, I love writer/director Brad Bird. He's brilliant and I think this movie will be excellent. But even if he was not involved, this would be my pick. If we are looking for a film to make $240+ million then how can we not pick the Pixar film? The only Pixar films not to top $240 million are Toy Story ($191 mill in 1995) and A Bug's Life ($162 mill in 1998). Adjust those two for rampant ticket inflation and they are each up in the $300 million range. Heck, Cars was a disappointment for a Pixar film and it made $244 million. If Ratatouille is better than Cars it will be up close to $300 million. In fact, if a couple of the super-sequels disappoint a bit, Rat could climb into the top 2 or 3 for the summer.
Sorry I took so long with this post. Putting these 5 in order is a real challenge, but I think these 5 are the top 5 for sure.
-Jason "this will be easily the biggest summer in Hollywood history" Evans
Well, I talked to the Patterson's and they said ... okay, I am kidding.
I think your top four are locks. With the Simpsons being a tad dated and Transformers much the same, I talked to the P's (so I am not kidding) and will go with Transformers as my fifth pick. I feel pretty good about this too. So, I will commit to Transformers at number five.
We all seem to agree on the top 2 of Pirates and Spiderman. Though I think that will be the order rather than the reverse. The soso reviews for Spiderman plus the lack of popular involvement in the story line(compared with Harry Potter and Pirates, everyone has seen the movies and wants to know how the story arc turns out, Spiderman movies have been more standalones where if people didn't catch the movie, they wouldn't feel they missed out on the end of the story or some such... how's that for a parenthetical comment?) will knock Spiderman 3 down just a peg so that Pirates will take the top slot. Add in that while Spiderman has the benefit of the early uncontested opening, Pirates will be hitting the prime spot for young adult repeat viewings as kids are being let out of school.
I also disagree with most about what will be 3rd. I'll be surprised if Shrek finishes within $50 million of Harry Potter. This summer is going to be a frenzy of Potter publicity and I think its possible it could dislodge one of the top 2 from its slot. It also has the 2nd half of July mostly to itself after the slew of big releases in May/June. To me those 3 are the clear top 3, with a broad audience appeal. Shrek will take the 4th slot, and is the last of the sure fire $200 million pictures. The final slot I think will go to Transformers. Big publicity push and a July 4th opening will generate big enough numbers to slot it ahead of the rest of the field.
I had a really hard time choosing between Ratatouille and Evan Almighty, and Jason's logic is making me second guess my entry. I'll have to stick by my guns and hope that Evan Almighty is the sort of movie that people see 5 weeks after it came out because there aren't many comedies out (I have no choice, I turned in my entry already!)
I am shocked that so many of you don't think Rat will be among the top 5. Are you all expecting it to be far and away the lowest grossing Pixar film (adj. for inflation) ever?
What is this belief that Transformers will be huge? I really think that movie will open big (80+ million) and then just die. Its appeal is so limited. No one over the age of 40 will go see it, no females will go see it, teens think of Transformers as baby toys. Do you really think the 20-ish male audience can drive it to $200+ million?!?!
By the time it opens, the cool effects that are wowing us in the trailer will seem old hat after watching Pirates and Spidey.
-Jason "like I said, the top 5 feel like a lock to me" Evans
what the hell is an evan almighty?
it's already lagging as i have never heard of it.
Jason - I agree that Pixar knocks things out of the park. And the writer is top notch. But my feeling is that kids are sort of "ratted out." In the past year you have had Flushed Away - which didn't do that well. Also there have been a large number of animal animated movies in a row. Over the Hedge, Open Season, Happy Feet, Charlotte's Web, Open Range....That and the reviews for Ratatouille look sort of boring (and geared towards adults).
I think this one will disappoint. Cars had the allure of being something different. So did Finding Nemo, Toy Story, A Bugs Life, etc. They've always been on the cutting edge. Ratatouille doesn't seem original. Put it this way...my kids were clamoring to see Cars a year before it came out. They are much more pumped to see Shrek and Surfs Up - at least right now.
I will agree with you on Pirates, however...I think it actually does beat Spidey. But Harry Potter...I'm not sold on. Of all the books, this one was my least favorite. It will have a HUGE opening, on that you and I agree. But...once people read the book, they'll know what happens to Harry and Voldemort...and perhaps the movies will take a hit because of that. In fact, I bet Half Blood Prince will really struggle (the suspense of who it is will be done...the suspense of is Snape good or bad will be done), until Deathly Hallows comes out and blows them all away as it will be the last farewell for Harry Potter.
So, my top 5 (final answer) is: Pirates, Spidey, Shrek, Evan Almighty (don't forget the religious groups that will watch this) and Transformers.
By the way, the biggest theater in Durham (Streets at Southpoint) has Spidey opening up ON SIX SCREENS. That is unheard of down here. From 7-9 tomorrow night, you have a choice of Spidey, Blades of Glory, The Condemned, Fracture, Hot Fuzz, or Next. That is it.
After 10 p.m. it is Spidey, Blades of Glory, Lucky You, Next, or Perfect Stranger.
Maybe Spidey ends up the biggest money maker just because there's literally nothing else to see. When Pirates opens up there will still be Spidey, and Shrek.
(note - I'm not changing my picks. Last response said Final Answer...so no going back)
(note - this is not me in any way trying to steal Jason's copyrighted signature)
At least one female is excited about Transformers. Can't wait!
Interesting debate, especially since I don't have a strong opinion about most of these films.
The one I'll be most intrigued to see how it does is "Transformers"
On the surface, it's absolutely unattractive -- a live-action version of a kiddie toy/cartoon show ... you might as well try to drag me to the new Mutant Ninja Turtles movie ... ugh.
On the other hand, it has the best trailer of the season and one of the best I've ever seen. That makes me think about the two parts of a movie's success -- marketing and word-of-mouth.
I think most summer films are relatively immune to professional criticism. So what if Pauline Kael and Robert Ebert don't like Spidy or Pirates? Their opinions matter on adult drama and maybe some adult comedy (does Evan Almighty qualify as adult comedy? To my mind, the first one didn't, but that was a Jim Carey film).
I think marketing is the key to the first weekend. The sequels -- Spidey, Pirates, Shrek and Potter -- all have huge, built-in first-weekend audiences. The limiting factors are which get the 3-day weekends and what competition they face. They quality of the film has little to do with a film that opens in a million theaters on the same day.
I think Transformers will open well solely on the basis of its trailer, kind of like Independence Day once did (IMO, the single most successful trailer in motion picture history).
But that's why criticism means so little. All of these films are guaranteed a huge opening ... nothing the critics say is going to change that.
The real measure of the top hits will be the quality of the entertainment they deliver. And it's not what I think or the critics think, but what the 15-year-old boy who might see his favorite picture 10-15 times and tell all his buddies, "You've got to see this, dude" (do 15 year olds still say, Dude?) ... or in the case of "Titanic" the 15-year-old girls who go over and over and tell all their friends.
I know it sounds simplistic, but I think the ultimate rank of these films pretty much depends on which ones entertain their target audiences the most.
Transformers will be a big hit if -- and only if -- the movie delivers on its trailer. Of all the films this summer, that's the one that will be easiest to judge by its second weekend. Independence Day exploded on the 4th of July ... but kept rumbling through the rest of the summer because it was a two-hour thrill ride. I wonder if Transformers will do the same?
Having seen the crap that's done well (e.g. Ghost Rider, Wilds Hogs) I can't help but think that it is more than entertaining the people that makes a movie do well. I thought the last Pirates movie was awful, but it still brought in more than $400MM in the US. I fell asleep watching it in the theater...
Believe me ... I agree with you about the quality of these summer films. But I'm in my 50s and I find most of these films juvenile.
But the summer audience isn't made up of thinking adults. It's targeted at 13-20 teens -- mostly boys (although Depp and Bloom may bring in the girls too). I thought Pirates sucked, but obviously those teens didn't.
The interesting one in that regard are the Harry Potter movies. The books became a phenom almost a decade ago and the target audience was 10-15 years old. That group is now young adults. Are they still Potter fanatics? Or do the books grab a new group of kids every year?
I really don't know, although it's clear that the books have become more mature (and darker) as the series has progressed. I can see a generation of pre-teens growing up with the series through their teen and young adult years ... I have a harder time thinking that every year, a few million new 9-10-11 year olds discover "The Sorcerer's Stone" and go from there.