Playoff Baseball

[Matches]

If I'm a Yankee fan, I'd rather have CC on 3 days rest than Gaudin on full rest. I don't think pitching once on short rest will wear him out such that he'd be ineffective in Game 7 or in a WS performance.

And of course if they're up 3-0 they can always call an audible and slide Gaudin in there.

[duke23]

Are there any other Yankee fans upset by the apparent decision by Girardi to go with a three-man rotation in the ALCS?

I realize that nothing is written in stone at this point, still I think it's a bad, BAD idea. Sabathia has little experience pitching on three-day's rest and when he did try it late last year, he was relatively ineffective.

I am glad the Yankees plan to go with a three-man rotation. Sabathia pitched on three day's rest for Milwaukee for almost the entire second half last season, and he was a beast. Whether it tired him out for the playoffs is another matter, but irrelevant here, I don't believe there's any evidence to suggest that a single start on three day's rest makes a pitcher less effective in subsequent starts.

I'd also do it no matter what the series score is - down 0-3 or 1-2, I'm desperate for a win; up 2-1 or 3-0, I want to step on their throats. Regardless of the situation, I think Sabathia on 3 day's rest > Gaudin, ever.

[InSpades]

I think it's a no-brainer to start CC in game 4 on 3-days rest. If there wasn't the extra day off between game 4 and 5 I would probably think differently but there is so... CC had 1 bad outing on 3-days rest and it was his 4th consecutive start on short rest. The start before it he pitched 9 innings, throwing 122 pitches and giving up 1 unearned run. He is a beast and the Yankees would do well to get as much out of him as they can.

Unfortunately mother nature likely has other plans for this series... the forecast is for rain in NY for the next few days. Hopefully they can atleast get in friday's game and CC can still be in-line for 3 starts in this series.

One interesting thing they've been talking about on the radio in NY is what happens if they do have to push back the games by a day? The ALCS games are on Fox which has football on sunday. The NLCS is sunday night. Game 3 of the ALCS is set for monday afternoon... can they possibly have them play sunday night, fly across country and play monday afternoon? Do they want to go up against monday night football? I think the best solution would be to just move game 3 to tuesday and skip the day off between games 4 and 5. Not sure when you'd play game 2 though. I'm guessing Fox would say sunday night.

[Mal]

Fact: Since 1999, starters on three days' rest in the postseason are 7-27 against a fully-rested opposing pitcher.

Countervailing fact: Chad Gaudin. Chad Gaudin?

FWIW, duke23, CC was not throwing on short rest last year until the final three starts of the regular season when the division had slipped away and Milwaukee got desperate. Not to take anything away from the effort of doing it, or the results he got, but he made those starts against the Reds, the Pirates, and a Cubs team that had, if I recall correctly, already locked up the division and was likely resting people. Then he got shelled against the Phillies once it mattered and the other team had a major league lineup out there. It's possible that was the accumulated result of throwing on short rest four times in a row, and it's possible the previous episodes weren't good test cases. Probably some of both. The guy's a workhorse, but I don't know that he's shown he's tailor made for starting on short rest in the playoffs.

Then again, Chad Gaudin.

[YourLandlord]

Fun fact:

Last baseball off-season, the 30 teams that comprise MLB spent approximately $900 million in free-agent contracts.

One team, the Yankees, accounted for $450 million of that.

[InSpades]

Despite all the Yankees spent in the offseason, they actually managed to lower their overall salary for 2009. This despite signing pretty much the 3 highest priced free agents available. They got rid of the salaries of Giambi ($23M?), Mussina ($11M), Abreu ($13M?), Pavano ($10M) and lowered the salary of Pettitte (from like $16M to around $10M). Not sure if getting rid of the contract of Pudge Rodriguez really counts as he wasn't there very long.

[duke23]

Mal, you're correct, for some reason I thought it was longer - I guess it was just all the complete games I was thinking about. It's probably worth noting that in those 3 short-rest regular season games, he was coming off of throwing 99, 105, and 108 pitches, and threw no more than 7 innings in any of them. In his last regular season start he threw 122 pitches, then got shelled against the phillies on 3 days rest to start the playoffs. I would certainly hope the Yankees keep him around 100 rather than 120 in Game 1 if they plan on using him in Game 4.

Fact: Since 1999, starters on three days' rest in the postseason are 7-27 against a fully-rested opposing pitcher.

Countervailing fact: Chad Gaudin. Chad Gaudin?

FWIW, duke23, CC was not throwing on short rest last year until the final three starts of the regular season when the division had slipped away and Milwaukee got desperate. Not to take anything away from the effort of doing it, or the results he got, but he made those starts against the Reds, the Pirates, and a Cubs team that had, if I recall correctly, already locked up the division and was likely resting people. Then he got shelled against the Phillies once it mattered and the other team had a major league lineup out there. It's possible that was the accumulated result of throwing on short rest four times in a row, and it's possible the previous episodes weren't good test cases. Probably some of both. The guy's a workhorse, but I don't know that he's shown he's tailor made for starting on short rest in the playoffs.

Then again, Chad Gaudin.

[Olympic Fan]

I don't understand the contempt for Chad Gaudin (as in "then again, Chad Gaudin").

He's not Tom Seaver -- he's not even AJ Burnett -- but is he such a terrible option? The guy is a 26-year-old righthander with a 34-35 record in the Majors with a career 4.50 ERA. He's been better than that since the Yankees acquired him from the A's at midseason -- 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA.

Gaudin doesn't go deep into games, but he's started six games for the Yankees and guess what their record is in those games? 6-0.

His worst start actually came against the Angels in Anaheim on Sept. 22, just a couple of weeks ago. He started and went 4.2 innings, giving up two runs in a game the Yankees won 6-5. His other starts came against Oakland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Toronto twice. He went at least five innings in his other five starts.

He's a better option than Mitre or even Chamberlain (based on Chamberlain's late season starts). Is he a better option that Sabathia on three day's rest?

Well, Sabathia has pitched on three days rest four times in his career -- all late last season. He was 2-2 in those starts -- with one gem included.

He came back from a normal Sept. 16 start to start on Sept. 20 at Cincinnati. Pitching with three days rest for the first time in his career, he gave up four runs in 5.2 innings in a 4-3 loss.

He came back on Sept. 24 and allowed one run in seven innings (with 11 strikeouts) in a 4-2 win vs. Pittsburgh.

On Sept. 28 he was really sharp, allowing the Cubs one run in nine innings and winning the complete game 3-1.

Oct. 2, he started again on three day's rest and allowed 5 runs in 3.2 innings in a 5-2 playoff loss to the Phillies. The Brewers were out of the playoffs before he could pitch again.

Let's see ... that's 2-2 with 11 runs allowed in 25.1 innings. His Sept. 28 start was better than anything the Yankees could expect from Gaudin ... but you're rolling the dice. Even if you give him the Sept. 24 start, that's two good starts and two bad ones in four games on 3-day's rest. And that's not an accumulation of work -- his first one was a bad one.

Personally, I'd hate to waste a Sabathia start on a roll of the dice -- a 50-50 shot that he'd be able to handle it. I'd rather gamble with the kid who is 6-0 for you this season.

[Mal]

Oly, mostly just jabbing at the Yankees. That's what I'm reduced to after last week. The point was surprise that it's a legitimate possibility that the better choice for the Yankees, with all that payroll, is to stretch their ace to three starts in a seven game series in the face of recent trends, instead of going with a traditional 4-man rotation.

No contempt for Gaudin. My impression of him may be somewhat colored by how much of a train wreck he was here in Chicago last summer, I suppose, but regardless he's got a career 1.50 WHIP and has never started a game in the playoffs, to my knowledge. His career ERA, which you note, is fairly pedestrian for a playoff starter, especially when a decent bit of it has been accumulated in the National League. Against Scott Kazmir, I guess I would consider taking my chances with Sabathia, too. The point is, it's surprising the Yankees of all teams may have to consider that. I'd expect the fourth starter on a marginal playoff team to be a weaker option than the Yankees' #4. (side note: feel free to express any concerns you NYY fans have over the development and deployment strategy of Chamberlain here). You may be right, though, that Gaudin's filling a lucky charm role for the team and it's a good idea to pitch him while he's hot, given that he's been more effective in pinstripes than at any prior point in his career, and statistically at least is a completely different pitcher than he was last year. Then again, it's a legitimate possibility he performs as his career stats would predict, and the Yankees are at a disadvantage in Game 4.

We rehashed Sabathia's stretch of short rest starts up above. My conclusion is that you can't really conclude much based on them. Mostly due to the difference between the atrocious lineups he was facing in the first two games with the fairly ferocious one he saw in the NLDS.

[duke23]

Gaudin, simply, is not a pitcher I want starting a postseason game. Ever. He is a nice 5th starter, but he's pretty much guaranteed to pitch no more than 5 or 6 innings and give up no less than 3 runs. Which isn't "bad", but it's basically the worst-case scenario for CC in my mind.

Throw out CC's postseason start last year, which was his 4th consecutive start on 3 days rest and came off of throwing 122 pitches, and he gave up 2 ER in 21.2 innings in those first 3 short rest games. As long as Girardi limits his pitch count to 100-105, I don't see any problem here.

And no Yankees fan needs a reminder of Josh Beckett's game on 3 days rest, 6 years ago...

[InSpades]

Let's see ... that's 2-2 with 11 runs allowed in 25.1 innings. His Sept. 28 start was better than anything the Yankees could expect from Gaudin ... but you're rolling the dice. Even if you give him the Sept. 24 start, that's two good starts and two bad ones in four games on 3-day's rest. And that's not an accumulation of work -- his first one was a bad one.

Personally, I'd hate to waste a Sabathia start on a roll of the dice -- a 50-50 shot that he'd be able to handle it. I'd rather gamble with the kid who is 6-0 for you this season.

You're giving him the Sept. 24th start? Like there's a place where 7 innings, 1 ER, 4 hits and 11 Ks isn't worthy of being classified as a good start? 3 of the 4 runs he gave up on his 1st "bad" start were unearned. Obviously it wasn't up to CC's standards but if not for an error he gets out of that inning without giving up a run. His 1 run in his "gem" was also unearned. So of those 11 runs, he gave up 7 earned in 25+ innings. That's like a 2.5 ERA. Even if you ignore the fact that the errors led to runs, he gave up less than 4 runs per 9.

Lastly, you are not "wasting" a Sabathia start. He still gets to pitch twice in the series on full rest. I would consider it a wasted start if you pitched Gaudin instead of Sabathia. Not that I think Gaudin is bad, just that I think CC is better (even on 3-days rest). In general I think managers stick to "the book" way too often in baseball. I'm glad to see Girardi taking some chances (though I really don't like him as a manager).

[juise]

I have decided whenever the Dodgers get behind, I must go straight to work and desperately keep refreshing the online trackers. So far this practice has resulted in a 9th inning comeback against the Cardinals (the Matt Holliday game) and today's 8th inning comeback against the Phillies.

I may have to test this when Duke gets behind this year. It's a lot easier to be at work during the game when you live on the West Coast.

[Philadukie]

Wish Utley could throw to first.

By the way: Kobe, you're from Merion! Traitor!

[Olympic Fan]

What is it about playing the Yankees this postseason? First the Twins run themselves out of any chance of upsetting the Yanks, then tonight the Angels play defense like the '62 Mets. An error by Tori Hunter? Willie Aybar letting that pop fly drop?

We got lucky with the weather -- if was cold, but not wet. And CC Sabathia (on full rest) was a horse -- one run in eight innings.

I gotta say, with 19 regular season wins and strong performances is the ALDS and now the ALCS, C.C. has certainly been everything the Yankees paid for.

[dukebluelemur]

Again a yankee opponent shoots themselves in the foot. Tough ending to a long game.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Again a yankee opponent shoots themselves in the foot. Tough ending to a long game.

ARod, the new Mr. October!

Thrilled the Yankees won, it was a great game, but it should have ended an inning earlier, rather than on the throwing error by LA's second baseman.

[Olympic Fan]

Earlier Saturday, I was channel hopping during a break in the college football game I was watching and I stumbled across a replay of game seven from the 2003 ALCS -- the Aaron Boone game. It was interesting that they included commentary from Boston sports writer Dan Shaunnessy, who spent most of his time ripping Grady Little for not pulling Pedro after seven ... and especially not after two were on in the eighth.

Interesting that the commentators at the game, especially McCarver were very supportive when Little went to the mound in the eighth and shockingly left Pedro in the game, even though he was starting to get hammered (six of the previous eight hitters had hit rockets off him, even if two of them were line outs). Naturally, after the game, McCarver (the most overrated commentator in history) blamed Little for the stupid decision to leave Pedro in.

Anyway, I told the story because of the postgame interview with Boone. After the homer, he says, "Derek keep telling us to just hang in there and sooner or later the ghosts would come out."

I was thinking about that about 1:30 this morning, when Melky pulled his grounder to the right ... apparently the ghosts have made their way from old Yankee Stadium to the new one. The winning play made me think of Lombardi's "Snooze" in the 10th inning of the final game of the 1939 World Series, when a combination of mental and physical errors combined to beat the Reds.

Whoever is responsible -- the ghost of Charlie Keller (who knocked Lombardi senseless in '39) or just the brain fart by Iturus -- thanks for the gift.

Great game ... memorable game ... but as a Yankee fan, I'm willing to admit we've been d*mned lucky in postseason so far.

PS When you bring up bad calls that go in NY's favor -- and some do -- keep in mind the call of Jeter's double-play ball last night that went against the Yankees. Replays showed he was easily safe.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Anyway, I told the story because of the postgame interview with Boone. After the homer, he says, "Derek keep telling us to just hang in there and sooner or later the ghosts would come out."

I was thinking about that about 1:30 this morning, when Melky pulled his grounder to the right ... apparently the ghosts have made their way from old Yankee Stadium to the new one. The winning play made me think of Lombardi's "Snooze" in the 10th inning of the final game of the 1939 World Series, when a combination of mental and physical errors combined to beat the Reds.

Whoever is responsible -- the ghost of Charlie Keller (who knocked Lombardi senseless in '39) or just the brain fart by Iturus -- thanks for the gift.

Great game ... memorable game ... but as a Yankee fan, I'm willing to admit we've been d*mned lucky in postseason so far.

PS When you bring up bad calls that go in NY's favor -- and some do -- keep in mind the call of Jeter's double-play ball last night that went against the Yankees. Replays showed he was easily safe.

Earlier this week I posted something about the ghosts finding their way across the street!

Yankee haters are a lot like Duke haters - they don't/won't admit that we don't get all the calls. We should, but we don't!

[Turk]

Sillies in 6. Bring on the Yankees!! Dodgers starting pitching is worse than Phil's bullpen...

Oh, and Kobe's not a traitor - he's not from anywhere. He only happened to be living around Philly when it was time for high school. There was no way he'd be caught dead wearing any Philly gear on camera in Dodger Stadium - he knows who signs his checks. But I hope the Philly fans are happy with The Roots and Kevin Eubanks on TV - a superior trade in my book...

[InSpades]

Is Girardi terrible or what? It seems like every move he makes that doesn't involve bringing in Mariano Rivera is a bad move (and really, it's pretty darn hard to mess that up). I counted atleast 4 bad moves by Girardi in tonight's game:
1. Taking out Marte to pitch Coke. The Yankees have 2 lefties in the pen, do they really want to take 1 of them out to pitch the other one? Both for 1 batter?
2. Taking out Damon to put Hairston in leftfield w/ 1 out and bases loaded. Seriously what are the odds that a fly ball is hit to leftfield by the next batter where Hairston's better arm is the difference in the play? 1 in 1000? Maybe? Damon is due up 3rd in the next inning!
3. Pinch hitting Cervelli for Mariano. Just let him strike out and pitch the next inning. Unless he really really really thought Mo couldn't go another inning.
4. Aceves has been bad all postseason. Robertson has been nothing but good all postseason (and really all year). Why would you ever take him out after easily disposing of the 1st 2 hitters he faced?

You can add in a bunch of other things that weren't "bad decisions" but things that just went badly. He goes to the mound to talk to Pettitte before facing Vlad... obviously didn't say the right thing. Gardner gets caught stealing on a pitchout with an 0-1 count and everyone and their mother knew he was running. I'm not blaming Joe for either of those but they are just more things he does that turn out badly. Lucky for him he has a $200M team that will probably win despite the fact that he's an awful manager.

Edit. Pinch hitting Hairston for Gardner was also dumb. They are very similiar hitters really. You are just putting yourself in a position not to have a defensive replacement when you need one (which obviously ended up happening when they were forced to lose the DH).