FWIW, I endorse the continuation of this thread.
I wanted to revamp this thread from the Public Policy board since I found it interesting to monitor people's thoughts of the market and it wasn't at all controversial or acrimonious. I even thought that it seemed out of place on the Public Policy board. I guess government policies play a role in the market movement, but the thread was more about what people thought about the market's future direction and investment vehicles as opposed to a discussion of fiscal policies, so it didn't seem to fit the public policy bill to me.
Mods - feel free to chime in if you feel differently.
Here's a cached version, but it doesn't have the latest posts on it:
http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:...hp%3Ft%3D16887
Perhaps it's possible to resuscitate the complete thread.
On that note, market down 1% today on housing report numbers. I'm not optimistic in the short-term. We seem due for a pullback of 7-10% over the month or two, IMO. But I'm not going to try to time it.
FWIW, I endorse the continuation of this thread.
Well, Bernanke has said recently that the recession is pretty close to 'being over' and at least historically, hiring begins to improve about six months after that type of declaration is made. If that plays out exactly, by late March we should see a spike in hiring; the markets should begin to slowly move upward beginning then.
And if Cavlaw says this thread needs to continue, so be it!
dth.
Thought I'd "re-resurrect" this before it fades too far back. Any guesses on what's going to happen tomorrow? I wouldn't be surprised to see a big drop... the writing's been on the wall for a while now, and today seemed like it could have been the trigger. Guess we'll see.
(Disclaimer: I'm on record in the previous thread as entering a short position on the S&P a week or so ago when Dow was at 9,800, so I may be wearing "red tinted glasses"...)
Things are looking pretty flat today. Since some number of trades set things to auto-pilot around this time of the day on Friday I do not expect any sudden moves.
I have been hearing about the need for a correction from some people for some time now, but I don't see it. The fundmentals are not crazy out-of-whack, but most importantly, sentiment is mixed as far as I am hearing: plenty of Bears and plenty of Bulls. So while a correctionwouldn't shock me, I think it's more likely to continue roughly sideways for a while yet (a few months at least.) For the record I'm mostly invested with about 15% still on the sidelines and about 20% international.
The Gordog
Considering that real unemployment is ~16%, I'm wondering if the market surge is a Pump N' Dump on a massive scale.
Put me down for a "W" -- time to test the 200 day moving average soon.