The pennant (and wild card) race

[Olympic Fan]

Just thought I'd take this debate out of the AL MVP race thread and give the baseball fans on this board a place to talk about the closing stretch in the pennant races.

Actually, not a ton of drama left. The only really significant race that is (to my mind) still to be decided is the AL Central, where Detroit leads Minnesota by three games in the loss column (the ONLY way to count at this point) with 13 more to play. That would normally be pretty solid, except the two teams have four games coming up in Detroit. The Twins need to win at least three of four to have a chance ... but it's possible.

I think the Yankees lead on the Red Sox is equally tenuous in the AL East. The surging Red Sox have cut the Yankee margin to four games in the loss column and may get closer before their three-game head-to-head series in Yankee Stadium this coming weekend. Before that set, the Yankees have three games at the Angels, while the Red Sox have four in Kansas City.

The Red Sox probably have to sweep the series with the Yankees to have a chance, but that's something they've done before.

The only problem with this race is that it's not THAT important -- with Texas now eight games behind the Red Sox in the loss column (and 12 games behind the Yankees), it's pretty obvious that the AL East runnerup will win the AL wild card. So the Yankees and Red Sox are merely playing for postseason positioning.

The division winner will get to open with the Tigers or Twins and will have the homefield advantage in both the ALDS and ALCS. The wild card will have to open at the California Angels and will have the home field disadvantage in both series (even if the AL East runnerup finishes with a better record than the Angels, the Division champion gets the homefield over the wild card).

BTW, the Angels have a safe seven game lead on the Rangers in the AL West race.

The NL is equally non-dramatic. The Phillies are a lock in the NL East (up nine games with 14 to play). Despite last night's loss, the Cards are a lock in the NL Central (up nine games on the Cubs with 12 to play). The Dodgers "only" have a five-game lead on the Rockies with 12 left, but they are nine games up for a wild card berth, just in case they choke the NL West race.

The Rockies have the NL wild card well in hand -- up four games on the Giants and five on the Marlins and Braves with 12 to go.

So heading into the final two weeks, the only real drama -- as far as who makes and who misses the playoffs -- is the Detroit-Minnesota race.

The Yankees-Red Sox race can impact playoff seeding. And with the Dodgers (60 losses), Phillies (61 losses) and Cards (63 losses), so close, the last two weeks could change the NL playoff seedings. But that's about it.

PS One point of interest for tonight's games -- both New York and Boston are starting veteran pitchers who have been battling physical problems. I think the Yankees need Andy Pettite more desperately than the Red Sox need Tim Wakefield. But both are valuable postseason assets.

[bluebear]

Just thought I'd take this debate out of the AL MVP race thread and give the baseball fans on this board a place to talk about the closing stretch in the pennant races.

Actually, not a ton of drama left. The only really significant race that is (to my mind) still to be decided is the AL Central, where Detroit leads Minnesota by three games in the loss column (the ONLY way to count at this point) with 13 more to play. That would normally be pretty solid, except the two teams have four games coming up in Detroit. The Twins need to win at least three of four to have a chance ... but it's possible.

I think the Yankees lead on the Red Sox is equally tenuous in the AL East. The surging Red Sox have cut the Yankee margin to four games in the loss column and may get closer before their three-game head-to-head series in Yankee Stadium this coming weekend. Before that set, the Yankees have three games at the Angels, while the Red Sox have four in Kansas City.

The Red Sox probably have to sweep the series with the Yankees to have a chance, but that's something they've done before.

The only problem with this race is that it's not THAT important -- with Texas now eight games behind the Red Sox in the loss column (and 12 games behind the Yankees), it's pretty obvious that the AL East runnerup will win the AL wild card. So the Yankees and Red Sox are merely playing for postseason positioning.

The division winner will get to open with the Tigers or Twins and will have the homefield advantage in both the ALDS and ALCS. The wild card will have to open at the California Angels and will have the home field disadvantage in both series (even if the AL East runnerup finishes with a better record than the Angels, the Division champion gets the homefield over the wild card).

BTW, the Angels have a safe seven game lead on the Rangers in the AL West race.

The NL is equally non-dramatic. The Phillies are a lock in the NL East (up nine games with 14 to play). Despite last night's loss, the Cards are a lock in the NL Central (up nine games on the Cubs with 12 to play). The Dodgers "only" have a five-game lead on the Rockies with 12 left, but they are nine games up for a wild card berth, just in case they choke the NL West race.

The Rockies have the NL wild card well in hand -- up four games on the Giants and five on the Marlins and Braves with 12 to go.

So heading into the final two weeks, the only real drama -- as far as who makes and who misses the playoffs -- is the Detroit-Minnesota race.

The Yankees-Red Sox race can impact playoff seeding. And with the Dodgers (60 losses), Phillies (61 losses) and Cards (63 losses), so close, the last two weeks could change the NL playoff seedings. But that's about it.

PS One point of interest for tonight's games -- both New York and Boston are starting veteran pitchers who have been battling physical problems. I think the Yankees need Andy Pettite more desperately than the Red Sox need Tim Wakefield. But both are valuable postseason assets.

Nice summary..as a Sox fan, I'd like to catch the Yankees to pick up the home field advantage and also face the tigers--nothing against the tigers but I'm worried about how long the Sox playoff streak against the Angels can continue...Short of a sweep in NY though, this is very unlikely..
Agree that Wakefield will be a big asset in the post season if he can get back on track. He won't likely start but can eat up innings and preserve the other relievers if a game gets out of hand..

[weezie]

Man, I'm just glad the Tigers have a night off. They are killing me...
Feast or famine, always. It's emotionally exhausting!

[Jim3k]

And the curious thing is that the hottest team in the majors right now is the last place Oakland A's. They are playing like spoilers, but even if they win nothing much will happen on the spoiling front. They have a 7 game win streak and have won 12 of their last 14. They have 13 games left, playing entirely within their division (6 against the Angels), but are unlikely to to make a serious dent in the standings even if they keep up the pace. They are 7 games behind Texas and 11 behind the Mariners.

I see them tonight against (a wounded) Texas. It should be a pleasant evening no matter what. But no $7 beer.


Clarification: Last place in the Pacific.

[Jim3k]

And the curious thing is that the hottest team in the majors right now is the last place Oakland A's. They are playing like spoilers, but even if they win nothing much will happen on the spoiling front. They have a 7 game win streak and have won 12 of their last 14. They have 13 games left, playing entirely within their division (6 against the Angels), but are unlikely to to make a serious dent in the standings even if they keep up the pace. They are 7 games behind Texas and 11 behind the Mariners.

I see them tonight against (a wounded) Texas. It should be a pleasant evening no matter what. But no $7 beer.


Clarification: Last place in the Pacific.

Boy...was that ever a waste. Kudos to Kevin Millwood, though. Win streak broken. Last place remains deserved.

[blazindw]

Man, I'm just glad the Tigers have a night off. They are killing me...
Feast or famine, always. It's emotionally exhausting!

My emotions exactly! That Twins/Tigers 4-game series to close the season could be one of the most important in Tigers history.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, a poor night for the two best teams in the AL ... both go down on the road.

I suspect the Yankees feel a little better about Andy Pettite's comeback performance (3 ER in six innings) than the Red Sox feel about Wakefield's return (4 ER and seven BB in five innings). But neither was exactly dazzling.

It keeps the speculation alive as to the playoff rotations. For the Yankees, it's likely Sabathia, Burnett and Pettite -- with Burnett a mystery (he bounced back from a bad month with a pretty good start last time out) and Pettite's shoulder a concern.

For the Red Sox Beckett and Lester appear to be locks. Hey, Sox fans, who is No. 3 -- Dice-K? Burchholz?

The fourth starter/long relief guy in both camps is a mess -- Chamberlain and Wakefield.

Interesting choice by Francona tonight -- he's starting Byrd against Greinke. Is that a giveaway pick (to avoid wasting a quality starter against the KC ace)?

[bluebear]

Well, a poor night for the two best teams in the AL ... both go down on the road.

I suspect the Yankees feel a little better about Andy Pettite's comeback performance (3 ER in six innings) than the Red Sox feel about Wakefield's return (4 ER and seven BB in five innings). But neither was exactly dazzling.

It keeps the speculation alive as to the playoff rotations. For the Yankees, it's likely Sabathia, Burnett and Pettite -- with Burnett a mystery (he bounced back from a bad month with a pretty good start last time out) and Pettite's shoulder a concern.

For the Red Sox Beckett and Lester appear to be locks. Hey, Sox fans, who is No. 3 -- Dice-K? Burchholz?

The fourth starter/long relief guy in both camps is a mess -- Chamberlain and Wakefield.

Interesting choice by Francona tonight -- he's starting Byrd against Greinke. Is that a giveaway pick (to avoid wasting a quality starter against the KC ace)?

Buchholz deserves the number 3 slot based on his performance since August but i suspect that if Dice-K continues to pitch reasonably well, he'll be number 3 with Buchholz moving to number 4. Things could be shuffled though depending on how games 1 and 2 go.
Big squander by the sox last night..Yankees at Angels and end up losing and the sox, despite a poor performance by Wake, blow a big lead. The bullpen is starting to look a little shaky with Delcarmen and Bard being hit or miss in recent appearances. The backend of Wagner and Papelbon looks fine but Dice K and Buchholz are not likely to pitch 7 innings..

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Things look much rosier for the Yankees this morning. They finally won in LA, the Sox and Rangers lost, so the Yanks are in the playoffs and have a 5 game lead in the lost column on both the Sox and the Angels, in regards to winning the division and having home field advantage throughout the playoffs and World Series!

[YourLandlord]

Interesting choice by Francona tonight -- he's starting Byrd against Greinke. Is that a giveaway pick (to avoid wasting a quality starter against the KC ace)?

The Red Sox aren't trying to win any more games this season. Meaning, they've got the Wild Card and aren't making a push for the division. They would be foolish to -- there are no guarantees they'd get it, and they'd simply tire themselves out.

This is why they are a) starting junky starters, b) throwing junky relievers, and c) resting position players.

They're trying to see who has got what left now that it's nearly October -- like auditions for the playoffs.

[Olympic Fan]

Another interesting night in the AL East race (if there really is a race) ... good news for the Yankees in that they won a series in Anaheim for the first time in five years. Better news in that AJ Burnett had his second straight strong start in a row, allowing one run and striking out 11 in 5 2/3 innings.

Also Ian Kennedy came out of the pen and make his first appearance of the season. He was kind of shaky (loading the bases), but got out of trouble. I'm sure we'll see him a few more times down the stretch -- he might be a guy that can give the Yankees useful bullpen innings in postseason.

But Kennedy is just a bonus ... Burnett's return to form is vital for the Yankees' postseason rotation. If he's not an outstanding pitcher in October, New York's title dreams will be short-lived.

Yanks are off until the three-game set with the Red Sox starts Friday. New York's Magic Number is five with nine games to play. The Red Sox have an extra game left at Kansas City last night after rallying from a 2-0 deficit to swamp the Royals 9-2 last night.

In the best race left, the Twins stayed on Detroit's heels (3 games back) and the Rockies dropped a game to its pursuers in the NL wild card race. Colorado is still four games up (on the Braves and Giants) with 10 to play, so I don't think there is much of a problem there.

[Olympic Fan]

On the 10th to the last day of the season, things got a lot tighter in the AL Central -- the last legitimate Division race left -- and there was a HUGE development in the Yankees/Red Sox duel.

The Tigers lost another game on their lead to the Twins -- meaning that with nine days left, they are up two. Remember, these two teams play four times next week (starting Monday). It's still up for grabs.

The Yankees beating Boston in the opening game of their three-game set in Yankee Stadium wasn't that big of a deal, although it brought the Yanks close to clinching the Division and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (their magic number is three).

But what was a big deal was a third-inning line drive off the bat of Cabrera that smacked Lester in the right knee. It was an ugly play and Boston's top pitcher (over the last month) was down a long time. The x-rays were negative, but the "experts" on MLN suggested that he wouldn't be able to throw in practice for 7-9 days -- which could have a huge impact on the Red Sox postseason rotation.

That might make Dice-K's start against the Yankees (and Sabathia) today a big one. He's had two good starts since coming back. A third would establish him as another solid starting option in postseason.

The NL wild card race didn't get any closer Friday night, but it did sort itself out a little bit with the Rockies and Braves winning, while the Giants and Marlins lost. The latter two are now five behind the Rockies and two behind the Braves. Atlanta is still three games behind the Rockies, but at least they've turned it into a two-team race.

[jimsumner]

I believe it was Swisher who hit the liner off the leg.

And yes, Tigers-Twins has suddenly become the most (only?) compelling race left. It must have been SI and the laudatory article on how valuable the Tigers' season has been to the failing psyche of the Motor City. Now, that's pressure.

[Olympic Fan]

I believe it was Swisher who hit the liner off the leg.

Jim, you are usually right when you correct me, but not in this case. It was Melky Cabrera who hit the line drive (Swisher had walked on the previous at bat, loading the bases):

http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2009/0...ategory=sports

Good news for the Red Sox. Lester said the injury is not as bad as had been reported and that he'll take his regular start next week.

Even better news: Dice-K had another strong start Saturday (I think that's his third straight good one since returning from injury), even if he was outpitched by Sabathia. But having Lester and Dice-K in top form for postseason (to go along with Beckett and Buchholz) sets them up pretty well, even if it is going to be the wild card.

Actually TWO great races left. The best is the AL Central. The Tigers did a great job rallying from an 0-5 deficit to the White Sox to maintain their two-game lead on the Twins. It's all going to hinge on that four-game series starting Monday.

But the NL wild card is now also at two games with the Cards beating the Rockies and the Braves beating the Nationals. The big difference is that these two teams don't face head to head, so there will be a lot of scoreboard watching in Atlanta and Denver.

[jimsumner]

Swisher, Cabrera, one of those switch-hitting outfielders.

I stand corrected.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Jim, you are usually right when you correct me, but not in this case. It was Melky Cabrera who hit the line drive (Swisher had walked on the previous at bat, loading the bases):

http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2009/0...ategory=sports

Good news for the Red Sox. Lester said the injury is not as bad as had been reported and that he'll take his regular start next week.

BD and I talked about Melky's liner off Lester's leg in the LTE.

As one who has twice taken batted line drives off the lower leg/shin, and those were "just" soft balls, not a baseball hit by a major league player, it will be several days before Lester wants to throw again. Off the quad is not nearly as bad as if it hit him in the knee (or shin!), but still, the swelling and soreness take several days to subside, to say nothing of the mental aspect (gun shyness) of wanting to get back out there.

[jimsumner]

Still, some drama left. Tigers and Twins start a huge four-game series tomorrow. And the NL wild-card is getting close. Given how many Braves fans we have on this board, this one should get some attention.

But the Yanks do look pretty good going into the post-season. Imagine a Yankees-Dodgers series. What's the over/under on how soon we get sick of Joe Torre v. Yankees articles?

[Bob Green]

Imagine a Yankees-Dodgers series.

I'd rather imagine a Yankees-Cardinals series.

[blazindw]

I'd rather imagine a Yankees-Cardinals series.

Lord willing, a Tigers-Cards rematch. We owe them one. We also have to beat the Twins first.

[throatybeard]

I'd rather imagine a Cardinals-not AL East series. The AL East is something you just sort of wish you never had to hear of again if you're not in that division. Well, I liked Toronto back in the day.

As Bob points out there have been a few classic Cardinals-Yankees WSes. And I guess a Cardinals-RS series in 2004, not terribly compelling from a neutral standpoint, a sweep.

I am still hoping the Braves can pull out the WC miracle though.