I would be very surprised to see Duke sign Irving, Rivers, and Beal. Not with Curry, Dawkins, and Thornton already on board.
The most likely scenario for 2011 is one guard and two front-court players. If Duke were to come up empty on the guard sweepstakes in 2010, this could change.
And I'll climb Mt. Everest backwards before Mike Krzyzewski pulls a scholarship from Olek or anyone else for performance issues.
Once you get past he top 10 guys, primary players in 5 vs. 5, the other 3 do not have to be all planet.
Olek has some great athleticism that can simulate future opponents. He also has some raw skills that may eventually be put into game setting once his court sense improves in this his second year in Duke system.
First things first. Assuming Duke does get Irving and Barnes in 2010 class, I don't think Duke would mind at all getting Rivers and Beal who purportedly would like playing aside one another, though are not a package deal.
However, as more guys commit, I do agree with Jim that someone will probably self select elsewhere, possibly Rivers remaining "committed to UF", because when offered, I do think Beal would accept.
So the decision would be up to Rivers. Going from famine to feast at guard slots, Duke's key get in 2011 would be a big, either Quincy Miller or Marshall Plumlee who I already opined may go elsewhere, or someone else.
It is my impression that, for 2011, Duke has high interest in Quincy Miller and Marshall Plumlee for the wing/forward positions.
With regards to the guard position, the only reasons I can think for K not offering Beal yet are 1) the staff has not had enough time to evaluate him or 2) K is waiting on Rivers for a bit longer before turning to Beal.
Call me dramatic, but I am actually inclined to believe reason 2
Andre Dawkins -- 2011 Final Four MOP
So he needs to test Austin Rivers' degree of commitment to UF versus open to Duke option, before he leverages that with Brad Beal.
You and Jim make a good point though. Regardless of how high each recruit chances of choosing Duke may be, collectively not likely they all end up at Duke. This is true from a numbers standpoint and also from a how many guards can you effectively employ stance.
Having guys who want to be on the same team though may stretch those odds a tad.
As much or more though, Duke needs at least one of Quincy Miller, Marshall Plumlee or another quality big.
If Beal Irving and Rivers all want to go to Duke, I really doubt the coaching staff would say no. With all the struggles we have had hitting our targets the last 4 years,it would be a refreshing change to have these 3 elite prospects to want to enroll at Duke.Duke rarely uses all 13 scholarships.Its time we use all of them. Maybe Plumlee or Kanter could be the big man.Miller I would take him as well.
Brad Beal fits into DUKE's philosophy so well. For all the talks (and rightfully so) about Harrison Barnes being the epitome of a DUKE player, Brad Beal is not that far behind. He is a team-first player who has stated that he is looking for a school where "everyone loves each other" and plays hard together. He cares about getting a great education and is an honor student (contrary to previous posters who erroneously said he needs to get his grades in order). He is a high-character person who is always humble and says all the right things. He grew up a DUKE fan and idolized JJ Redick. And of course, he's also the #1 SG in the country.
Having said all that, I don't see how DUKE has room for both Austin Rivers and Brad Beal, unless Marshall Plumnee decides to go elsewhere (unlikely IMO).
If DUKE signs both Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irving (very likely, IMO), then Duke only has 3 scholarships available for the class of 2010 (Kyle Singler leaving before his senior year has no effect on the number of scholarships for this class).
Although mathematically we have 3 scholarships, in reality, DUKE has 2 scholarships to give out between Quincy Miller, Brad Beal, and Austin Rivers. The reason, IMO, is that Marshall Plumnee to very likely going to sign w/ DUKE. I know Marshall Plumnee is looking at all options and has expressed the possibilty of taking his own path and not attending DUKE like his brothers, but the opportunity to play w/ his brothers in college will ultimately sway him to DUKE.
So that leaves 2 scholarships for 3 players: Miller, Beal, and Rivers.
DUKE's #1 priority is PF Quincy Miller, who would fill in for Singler. Duke has a great shot of landing Miller.
That leaves that last scholarship for either Beal or Rivers. The fact that Beal still does not have an offer tells me that DUKE prefers Rivers, and is waiting for his visit, which is coming very soon. If they sense Rivers will not decommit from Florida, I think DUKE gives Beal the last scholarship. Which ain't a bad thing at all. In many ways (see above), I prefer Beal over Rivers.
Also, it's P-l-u-m-l-e-e with an L. "Plumnee" isn't even a name haha. Why are you so sure he ends up at Duke? Miles has spent most of his time on the bench and Mason hasn't even played a game yet.
Beal deciding between Kansas, Florida, and Illinois for Midnight Madness. We're still in his final 6, however (Missouri and Ohio St. are the other two)
We roll this scholly over for 2011 and offer Beal, Plumlee and rivers?
I love positive thinking! I think we go balls to the wall after Roscoe and if not offer both of them the chance to play at DUKE!
Got to stay positive. Rivers in the next great thing. A Rivers, Beal and Plumlee class would be an easy number one class. I'm all about offering Roscoe. And if that's what coach thinks will be the good move than go for it! We are still a National Champion CONTENDER!!! DUKE FOR LIFE!!
YThe best mix of academics and basketball doesn't bode very well for our basketball
We should watch who takes our recruits around and is it time?
Yeah, I think there are two options. Go after Roscoe Smith for 2010 (and if he chooses UConn or Georgetown, look at some other 3/4). Or they can roll over two spots from 2010 to 2011 and try to land a four man class.
Just based on some free info on Scout and chatter around the board, it seems like Beal, Rivers, Marshall Plumlee, and Quincy Miller are four potential targets. Quinn Cook is another name to look out for.
Miller is a priority
Andre Dawkins -- 2011 Final Four MOP
Oh yeah! I forgot about Miller! Kid has some game.
I still think we go hard after Roscoe. If we land him, we can still go hard after Qunicy Miller who is our main priority and Austin Rivers. Dawkins and Curry have the 2 spot locked down for a lil bit. THEN, we hand it over to JP Tokoto in 2012.