Never too early. The front page got me eager.
I know we play Findlay and Georgetown. Plus Wisconsin at Wisconsin and the ACC schedule. Any other non conference games of importance?
Cream and Crimson on the outside.
Duke blue on the inside.
Davidson and at MSG to play Gonzaga
2009-2010 can't come soon enough.
Duke is also one of the host schools for the NIT Tip-off. If we win the first two games then we would go on to MSG. The other host schools I believe are Arizona St., LSU, and UConn but the rest of the field hasn't been announced.
I am not sure if it has been solidified but does anyone have any idea when the holes go to Cameron next season? Thanks!
Saturday, March 6 - 9p ESPNHD (Dan Shulman, Dick Vitale - Erin Andrews) - Saturday Primetime
Some things don't have to be solidified.
Trinity '97, Tent #1 '97
When will the complete schedule for next season be released?
3rd Friday in August.
2009-2010 can't come soon enough.
I know someone a month or so back briefly referred to this, but it got lost in the shuffle, so for general edification, please check out this 09-10 ACC master mbb schedule: http://www.theacc.com/auto_pdf/p_hot...el-three-years
Whence cometh my paranoia? Well, I maintained several times back in Jan-Feb, as we were all predicting the final 09 ACC standings, that it was a dispiriting curiosity how we seemed perennially to have the thoughest ACC schedule. I was humorously chastised that we always had the easiest ACC schedule, never having to play Duke.
That is a serious as well as humorous point, but unless that single factor overcomes all others, and overcomes relative to all other teams' otherwise-easier schedules, we get the 2d-toughest schedule again next year, I think.
To wit: A few of us have posted on the "Draft Fallout" thread an early prediction for ACC standings at end of 09-10. It seems a near-consensus among the few posters so far that Miami, UVa, and NCState are most likely bottom-tier next year. Top tier is Duke-UNC, maybe-maybe GaTech.
So, under my reasonable [tell me otherwise if I'm way off base] forecast, you get a tough schedule the more you must play Duke, UNC, maybe GaTech, and an easier schedule the more you play NCS, UVa, Miami.
Guess what? Duke gets bothUNC and GaTech home and away, and none of the likely-bottom-tier H&A. [And Duke's other 3 H&A opponents are solid: BC, Clemson, Md.] UNC? Well, they get Duke and GaTech H&A, but..... UNC also gets NCS H&A. Ga Tech might arguably have the toughest schedule, as they get both Duke & UNC H&A, and none of the bottom tier H&A. So, that means GATech's challenge to Duke and UNC will not be easy for them.
And who gets all 3 of Miami, NCS, and UVa H&A? Ans: Wake. True, Wake also gets UNC and GaTech H&A, but that's more than "balanced" by their other 3 H&A opponents. Perhaps Wake deserves a break, given their untimely draft-departees.
I think I actually realize this is all truly luck of the draw, but if so it's surely fair to point out who's had the 1st-2d toughest "unbalanced mess" year in, year out. That would be Duke. Repeating the obvious: unbalanced mess.
gumbomoop - thanks for that link.
Rather than project this year' strength, if we went strictly by last year's ACC wins, an average score would be 128 and the most difficult would be:
148 - GA Tech who only won two and is always at a disadvantage before we adjust for improvement
131 - BC
130 - Clemson (plays GT twice and Jackets will be much better this year)
130 - UVA
129 - MD
128 - VA Tech
128 - NC St
126 - Miami
125 - Duke (plays GT twice and Jackets will be much better this year)
124 - UNC (plays GT twice and Jackets will be much better this year)
124 - FSU (plays GT twice and Jackets will be much better this year)
113 - Wake (plays GT twice and Jackets will be much better this year)
The one team I think everybody agrees will win much more than the 2 ACC games they won last year is GA Tech with addition of Favors, return of Lawal and maturity of Shumpert.
It so happens that the four teams at the bottom of schedule difficulty play GA Tech twice this year as does Clemson.
So it appears Wake does have by far the ACC unbalanced easiest schedule and that the toughest are GA Tech and Clemson
When I arbitrarily give GA Tech 8 ACC wins instead of two and keep everybody else the same except for lowering GA Tech degree of difficulty, the average score would then be 136 with Clemson the toughest, Wake the easiest, GA Tech the second toughest and Miami the second easiest and everybody else not advantaged or disadvantaged very much.
142 Clemson has the toughest ACC unbalanced schedule
139 GA Tech
134 VA Tech
134 NC ST
125 Wake by far the easiest unbalanced ACC Schedule
Since GA Tech and Clemson are perhaps the two teams best able to challenge Duke and UNC for top of ACC, it appears the big two will again prevail in top tier.
Your calculations seem to verify my sense that Wake gets big, big break. And it seems that UVa, likely still a bottom-tier team, doesn't get a break
But tell me, what would happen if you arbitrarily gave GaTech 9-10 wins? Would 10 Ws for GaTech change your calculations substantially? My speculation [from "Draft Fallout" thread]- and it's nothing more - was that GaTech was team most likely to edge near Duke-UNC top-tier, and I "gave" them 10 ACC wins.
Using 10 GA ACC wins, the average becomes 139, and Clemson gets even more disadvantaged, while Wake and Miami in that order still have the easiest unbalanced schedule.
Again UVA a bottom feeder gets no break and NC State and VA Tech who could surprise a few folks with two of their big 3 back, just not Vassallo, have a slightly easier task than the others who are all at the 139 average +/- 2.
This quantum leap for GA Tech virtually flips the original 2008-09 stats around since bottom 4 in difficulty all play GA Tech twice.
146 Clemson by far the toughest unbalanced ACC schedule
139 BC - average ACC unbalanced schedule
137 GA Tech
136 VA Tech
136 NC ST
134 Miami quite easy unbalanced ACC schedule relative to everybody except Wake
129 Wake by far the easiest unbalanced ACC schedule
These metrics do support your original premise that Duke would have the second toughest ACC unbalanced schedule if GA Tech ascends as much as many folks are predicting.
Personally I think that is tough to do to improve 8 games with addition of just one guy, especially since this team has never shown an ability to win on the ACC road, and gets no break from unbalanced schedule.
Coach Paul Hewitt is better at attracting guys to Atlanta than getting them to play as a unit or stay.
Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 06-22-2009 at 04:19 PM.
Ga Tech is indeed a tough guess for next season, perhaps toughest in league, though pretty much all teams have major ?-marks. Really.
I'm no Hewitt fan, so he's probably one of Tech's biggest ?-marks. But as to talent, I was pretty impressed with Shumpert, esp by season's end. A bit less so with Lawal, but heck, he was a projected 1st-rounder had he remained in the draft, wasn't he? Favors certainly impressive, and I think Hewitt has a couple of other solid recruits, plus Bell returning from redshirt.
They're not quite so loaded as UK, but they're pretty loaded with good experience, and very promising frosh.
While you're definitely right to wonder just how big a jump they can make, it seems at least on paper that maybe they could emerge from what I call next year's "middle/muddle" tier to nab a solid 3d-place, possibly even challenge for 2d. If they fail to make big jump, Hewitt's in trouble.
Back to my original paranoid thought - that Duke gets screwed every year by the unbalanced mess - I think your metrics suggest I overstated just, but perhaps only just, a bit. The metrics do indicate that 1 or 2 teams benefit noticeably, and 1 or 2 are noticeably disadvantaged by this mess. We all sensed this intuitively; your numbers prove it.
Until another poster challenges your numbers, at which point I will revert to my default paranoia.
1. Duke to play UNC-G at home on 11/13.
2. Duke to play Gardner-Webb at home on 12/15.
3. Duke to play Radford at home on 11/21.
4. Duke to play TBD on the afternoon of 12/31.
appx. 11/16 2 PNIT games (possibly Coastal Carolina & UNC-C)
11/25 & 27 PNIT Finals (with CT, LSU, AZ St.)
1/6 v. ISU (Chicago)
Highly Likely Opponents: St. John's, @Georgetown, Davidson, Gonzaga at MSG (12/19).
Add St. John's in Cameron on 12/5.
Also possibly add Long Beach State on 12/29, but this isn't confirmed per their prospectus.
Last edited by duke2x; 07-20-2009 at 09:53 PM.
Trinity '97, Tent #1 '97