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  1. #1

    Yikes, US News dropped us to 10th

    It's time again for the annual list everyone cares about more than they say they do.

    This year's rankings here.

    T1. Harvard/Princeton
    3. Yale
    T4. Caltech/Mit/Stanford/Penn
    T8. Columbia/UChicago
    10. us
    11. Dartmouth... there's some sort of rule that Dartmouth can't ever be higher than us

    ACC standings:

    10. Duke
    24. UVa (third best state school, behind Berkeley and Ucla)
    T28. Wake/Unc
    34. BC
    35. Georgia Institute of Technology
    50. U of Miami
    53. Maryland
    61. Clemson
    71. VPI&SU
    88. NC State
    102. Fsu

  2. #2
    So these rankings are compiled from 2008 data -- they reflect attitudes that year.

    Late spring 2006 is when the lacrosse stuff started, and 2007 is when it was huge in the news, all year long.

    Sooooo...I've gotta think that 2008 reflects the worst from that incident -- opinions of other professors, lower student application rates, etc.

    Hopefully Duke can begin to climb back after this. However, these things are somewhat self-perpetuating...kids applying to schools this year are going to see a #10 Duke (ugh double digits sounds so classless), stemming from an incident that happened in 2006, which may further affect attitudes.

    I tried finding year-by-year US news rankings, but could only come up with a few random years. I'd like to do a plot of top-10 or 15 school rankings to look at how much variance there is over time for our peer schools, as it seems many are staying in place while Duke has been steadily dropping the last 5 years or so.

    So, can anyone find this data? I'll analyze it if you can find it.

  3. #3
    I'd love to see year-by-year rankings. They go back to at least the late 1980s. It wouldn't be hard to research using those library thingies I vaguely remember we used to use before internet was invented.

    The highest Duke ever ranked was third, in 1994 and/or 1995. Which by YourLandlord's thinking would have reflected stuff that went on in 1991-92. What happened at Duke in 1991 and 1992... someone remind me.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    I'd love to see year-by-year rankings. They go back to at least the late 1980s. It wouldn't be hard to research using those library thingies I vaguely remember we used to use before internet was invented.

    The highest Duke ever ranked was third, in 1994 and/or 1995. Which by YourLandlord's thinking would have reflected stuff that went on in 1991-92. What happened at Duke in 1991 and 1992... someone remind me.
    http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:...&ct=clnk&gl=us

  5. #5
    Thanks. Give me a few minutes to put this together.

  6. #6
    Awesome, thanks. So I was wrong on when we finished 3d. Duke's lowest ranking, and biggest year-over-year drop, occurred right after the school let me in.

    What stands out is how much "better" Penn has gotten. We always called it the "safety Ivy" in hgh school. Thanks to the baby bust it wasn't all that hard to get into top schools in the late 1980s outside of H/P/Y.

  7. #7
    The difference between 8th and 10th is only one point. Probably most high school students don't realize that the rankings aren't super precise, but the difference of one point is negligible. But I'll admit that I'm still annoyed that they dropped us in the rankings. There's a big drop between Yale at 3rd and the ties at 4th. As much as we say we don't care, I honestly think it does have a slight effect on perception and how many high school students apply. I felt comfortable in the 4th-8th range...especially since I chose Duke over UPenn and Columbia in 2003 when Duke was tied with Penn at 4th and Columbia was 10. I just like being tied or above Penn, haha. Although I certainly realize that you can't really make such small distinctions and the quality of these institutions are all stellar and don't really change dramatically from year-to-year. But it's fun nonetheless. I think Penn's PA definitely benefits from people focusing on Wharton, which is seen as by far the best undergrad business school by most individuals. Not surprising that Columbia is the only school in the top 25 with tuition over 40k at $41,316...being in NYC and all. But that doesn't even include housing and food.
    Last edited by Bluedog; 08-20-2009 at 12:27 PM.

  8. #8
    Fourth when I graduated.

    Darn it, what are those kids down there doing?! Totally ruining my degree...


  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    The difference between 8th and 10th is only one point. Probably most high school students don't realize that the rankings aren't super precise, but the difference of one point is negligible. But I'll admit that I'm still annoyed that they dropped us in the rankings. As much as we say we don't care, I honestly think it does have a slight effect on perception and how many high school students apply. I felt comfortable in the 4th-8th range...especially since I chose Duke over UPenn and Columbia in 2003 when Duke was tied with Penn at 4th and Columbia was 10. I just like being tied or above Penn, haha.
    Slight? I think it has a huge effect.

    Unreal that we drop from 4 (immediately behind HYP) to 10 in only 5 years.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post
    Slight? I think it has a huge effect.

    Unreal that we drop from 4 (immediately behind HYP) to 10 in only 5 years.
    We dropped from 7 to 12 in one year ('88 to '89), and then when back up to 5 the next year in '90. So, I don't really think it's a steady decline in rankings, but rather that there is typical fluctuation year-to-year because there is a segment of schools with really close scores. We could very easily shoot up to T-4 next year. We've gone from 8 to 4 (02-03), and then 5 to 8 (06-07) in recent back-to-back years. I don't think this really reflects a difference in the quality of the institution...but rather the statistical closeness and variability. Schools ranked 4-12 this year are all pretty close. So I'd expect to variability among that group next year. Somebody breaking into HYP territory doesn't seem likely, though, since their scores are well ahead.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Ash View Post
    Fourth when I graduated.

    Darn it, what are those kids down there doing?! Totally ruining my degree...

    Third when they used my class's stats, but that was the "most academically accomplished income class ever" (or until that point). I'm pretty sure the kids since then have not been of lesser quality. They had to "tweak" the model after that because of the brouhaha from other schools. Maybe the methodology has been changed again.

  12. #12
    Caveat: I don't care about what these rankings are "truly" worth. I'm analyzing the data, which, say what you will, greatly influences 16/17 year old students and their parents who want the best for them.

    Attached are 5 files:

    1. Year over year,
    2. Trailing 3 year moving average,
    3. Trailing 5 year moving average.

    Cal Inst of Tech and MIT compete for a somewhat different population of students than the rest of the top 10 (very math/engineering oriented), and therefore they are almost competing against eachother more than the rest of the top schools. Because of this, I have elected to remove CIT to make the trends more visible, as you will see.

    So I also included:
    4. Trailing 3
    5. Trailing 5 years, with CIT removed from both for clarity.

    These Trailing 3 and 5 years, minus CIT, are interesting. There is a CLEAR delineation, stretching back to 1992 (17 years!!!), in which there was a solid top-6 (H,Y,P, Stanford, MIT, Duke -- above the black line), with the only break being Penn's meteoric rise in the late 90's, to turn it into a top-7 (Penn is here to stay).

    NO other schools crossed that magical black line, either rising or falling -- the top group of HYP (as will always be the case) and the other 4, truly represented the best of the best.

    All the other schools fall in a big mess below that, fluctuating year to year, but in one group regardless.

    Look at the trailing 3 year (first graph with a black line) -- note that the last 5 years, Duke has nosedived to join that lesser group of schools, while all the other top level schools have maintained their position. Duke is now in that group of traditionally "lesser" schools.

    Duke is the only "top" school to lose such ground, so fast -- ever.

    This violent up/down pattern is much more common among the "lesser" schools....so which group does Duke really belong to?

    For the past 17 years, Duke has been in the very elite top-7 colleges in the nation, by a fairly clear gap (one could argue Dartmouth is somewhat in between the two groups, but that is neither here nor there).

    Look at the last graph posted. Almost every school has remained somewhat steady over the last 5 years -- some with slight downs or ups, one with a very large up (Chicago), but only one with a steep steep dive -- Duke.

    Like it or not, this is not a "year to year fluctuation", but a trend -- one that should be acknowledged and attacked. Duke can only hope and pray to repeat the bounce experienced off the previous 2 lows, but now we are in an even lower low -- Duke is now associating with a new group of schools, and this may be a tough reputation to shake.

    Thoughts? Further data analysis you'd like?
    Attached Images Attached Images

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    Duke's lowest ranking, and biggest year-over-year drop, occurred right after the school let me in.
    Wow. Thanks a bunch. I wonder if the Alumni Office has a big black X next to your name.

    Kidding aside, though, think fearless leader Broadhead will be making any comments about the slide?

  14. #14

    rankings

    Tenth place sounds great ... Forbes Magazine just ranked Duke 104th:

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/02/bes...2009_land.html

    It's not clear the reason for the deep slide, but in reading the comment section, it appears the conservative-oriented business publication is reacting to the faculty/administration response to the lacrosse case. You'll see remarks such as:

    “Unfortunately, though I greatly valued my Duke experience, I would not recommend Duke now to any high school senior. The takeover of the faculty by hateful race/class/gender extremists, as personified by the Group of 88, has essentially destroyed the university.”

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Tenth place sounds great ... Forbes Magazine just ranked Duke 104th:

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/02/bes...2009_land.html

    METHODOLOGY for this "ranking":

    1. Listings of Alumni in the 2008 edition of Who's Who in America (12.5%)

    2. Salaries of Alumni from PayScale.com (12.5%)

    3. Student Evaluations from Ratemyprofessors.com (25%)

    4. Four-Year Graduation Rates (16.66%)

    5. Students Receiving Nationally Competitive Awards (8.33%)

    6. Faculty Receiving Awards for Scholarship and Creative Pursuits (5%)

    7. Four-year Debt Load for Typical Student Borrowers (20%)

    LLLLLOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLL.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by weezie View Post
    Wow. Thanks a bunch. I wonder if the Alumni Office has a big black X next to your name.

    Kidding aside, though, think fearless leader Broadhead will be making any comments about the slide?
    No. Peter Lange always says the same thing when the rankings come out:

    2005 - Tie for 5th
    "We’re pleased that Duke is ranked again in the top tier of national universities [...] Even as we welcome this news, however, we remind high school students and their families to recognize the limitations of these surveys. No ranking can fully capture the life of a university, and students should look beyond the numbers to evaluate carefully which institutions will provide the best fit for their own interests."
    http://news.duke.edu/2005/08/usnewsrank05.html

    2007 -8th
    "We're gratified that the quality of our faculty and students has been recognized once again [...] As always, we acknowledge the limitations of these and other rankings and urge anyone considering applying to college to use the rankings as only one, and certainly not the most informative and important, of many possible sources of information"
    http://news.duke.edu/2007/08/rankings07.html

    2008 - Tie 8th
    "We’re pleased to see Duke’s faculty and students recognized for their excellence once again. [...] As always, we remind students and parents of the limitations of these and other rankings, which they should use as only one source of information as they engage with the college application process. Duke attracts a wonderful student body and we encourage young people who are interested in applying to visit the campus and see Duke for themselves."
    http://news.duke.edu/2008/08/usnews.html

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post

    METHODOLOGY for this "ranking":

    1. Listings of Alumni in the 2008 edition of Who's Who in America (12.5%)

    2. Salaries of Alumni from PayScale.com (12.5%)

    3. Student Evaluations from Ratemyprofessors.com (25%)

    4. Four-Year Graduation Rates (16.66%)

    5. Students Receiving Nationally Competitive Awards (8.33%)

    6. Faculty Receiving Awards for Scholarship and Creative Pursuits (5%)

    7. Four-year Debt Load for Typical Student Borrowers (20%)

    LLLLLOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLL.
    haha, agreed. Ratemyprofessors.com and who's who in america? Are you kidding me? Duke also has its own site for course evals so those aren't included, and anybody on the internet can post on ratemyprofessors.com.

    From that ranking:
    14 Centre College
    16 Boston College
    20 Whitman College
    ...
    54 Hampden-Sydney College
    57 Principia College
    61 New College of Florida
    75 Juniata College
    ...
    77 Vanderbilt University
    83 University of Pennsylvania
    98 Dartmouth College
    101 Millsaps College
    103 Wheaton College
    104 Duke University
    109 Oklahoma Baptist University
    ...
    207 Cornell

    Clearly Centre College >>> Principia College >> UPenn = Dartmouth = Millsaps = Wheaton = Duke >>>>> Cornell, right?

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post

    Thoughts? Further data analysis you'd like?
    yea, compare size of endowment to rank.
    ~rthomas

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by rthomas View Post
    yea, compare size of endowment to rank.
    Sure thing, although it seems to me that endowment size is a function of rank, not that rank is a function of endowment size. As in, if you're an elite university for a long time, you're going to raise a lot of money (and acceptably so!)

    Just a minute...

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post
    Sure thing, although it seems to me that endowment size is a function of rank, not that rank is a function of endowment size. As in, if you're an elite university for a long time, you're going to raise a lot of money (and acceptably so!)

    Just a minute...
    Actually it's the other way around. Larger endowment means higher salaries for faculty, lower student to faculty ratios in the classroom, etc, etc down the line.
    ~rthomas

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