That one ACC win might be difficult to come by this year, unfortunately. Our schedule is not very forgiving. Our home games are against Maryland, Va Tech, Ga Tech, and Wake, and I don't see us winning on the road. I think Army, Maryland, and Virginia are the coin flip games. If we win two of those three and beat Richmond and UNCC, we get to four. But I wouldn't count on us winning two of those three. And I'll be surprised if we win any of the other FBS games.
I think 3.5 or 4 wins is probably a reasonable line for us this year. Four or five wins is definitely doable, but three is very reasonable too.
On an unrelated note, it's weird to see that we don't finish the season against UNC this year (instead we finish with Wake).