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Thread: ACC Next Year

  1. #1
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    Jun 2009

    ACC Next Year

    Recent roster attrition has really shaken up the ACC next year. What does everyone here think about next year?

    I have to think UNC is the cream of the ACC next year, with GT being the most serious threat. Clemson is right behind them, with Duke and UMD in that area.

    UNC
    GT
    Clem
    Duke
    UMD
    WFU
    FSU
    VT
    NCSU
    BC
    Miami
    UVA

    I see UNC as a team unto itself. If Drew is even decent, say 3/4 of Lawson, UNC is a national power. GT has the talent to threaten UNC, but it is really inexperienced.

    Duke, Clem, UMD, FSU, and WFU are in the next tier. Clem rebounded with the Noel Johnso commitment, and WFU has a lot of talent on the roster. They lost a lot, but the return a lot and have some decent recruits. FSU has Alabi and some good recruits, but will miss douglas early.

    I can never really get a read on VT. On paper they look mediocre to lousey, and then they are a tough out for everybody. NCSU is rebuilding, same with BC and Miami. UVA remains a wasteland outside of Sylvan.

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
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    I disagree a little. Though I am a little biased, I believe Duke will be better than you say. Here is My list.

    Duke
    UNC
    CU
    WFU
    UMA
    GT
    BC
    FSU
    VT
    Miami
    NCS
    UVA

    I believe Duke will be alot better, considering all of our bigs.
    Last edited by Hancock 4 Duke; 06-29-2009 at 04:41 PM. Reason: Changed list

  3. #3
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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumaean_Sibyl

    Hard to disagree with a prophet.

    UNC seems significantly weaker than they have been in several seasons, unless they get unexpected contributions from some young backcourt players. However, (and with the loss of Elliot Williams) they may still deserve to be the favorite.

    Duke, GaTech, and FSU will be in first division IMO. BC will be pretty decent, too.

    Seems wide open generally.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Cumae Sybl View Post
    Recent roster attrition has really shaken up the ACC next year. What does everyone here think about next year?

    I have to think UNC is the cream of the ACC next year, with GT being the most serious threat. Clemson is right behind them, with Duke and UMD in that area.

    UNC
    GT
    Clem
    Duke
    UMD
    WFU
    FSU
    VT
    NCSU
    BC
    Miami
    UVA

    I see UNC as a team unto itself. If Drew is even decent, say 3/4 of Lawson, UNC is a national power. GT has the talent to threaten UNC, but it is really inexperienced.

    Duke, Clem, UMD, FSU, and WFU are in the next tier. Clem rebounded with the Noel Johnso commitment, and WFU has a lot of talent on the roster. They lost a lot, but the return a lot and have some decent recruits. FSU has Alabi and some good recruits, but will miss douglas early.

    I can never really get a read on VT. On paper they look mediocre to lousey, and then they are a tough out for everybody. NCSU is rebuilding, same with BC and Miami. UVA remains a wasteland outside of Sylvan.

    Thoughts?
    Fair assessment, although I don't think the holes are that much better than Clemson/Tech/Duke. Our final position is so dependent on guard health, we are difficult to judge. No injuries to Scheyer and Smith - we could finish at or near the top; a major injury to either probably dooms us to middle of ACC. Nationally, i think the ACC will be down next year.

  5. #5
    Maryland looks not so different from what we were a couple of years ago. Ton of really good guards, with an ineffective center or two that forces the coach to constantly play small forwards in the post. I like them to be the surprise of the conference. Can we trade one of our 27 forwards for Mosley or Hayes? I'm kidding, of course, but it would be incredibly beneficial for both teams.

    FSU has lots of talent up front, but as I've made my opinion known before, they've got a terrible coach. I think Douglas was responsible for holding that team together last year, and they'll underperform without him.

    Duke is probably the toughest team to place, actually. Honestly, I could see us anywhere from 1st to 7th. In a one game situation, we're probably the 2nd best team, but over the course of entire season, I'm not so sure. As has been stated repeatedly, we're a single injury away from being completely screwed.

    Georgia Tech does look good, but they've been the supposed "surprise team" for three or four years now, so I'll believe it when I see it.

    It really is a complete mess. If I had to pick, I'd say something pretty close to what you have: UNC, Maryland, Duke, GT, Wake, Clemson, FSU, VT, BC, NC State, Miami, Virginia
    Last edited by Wander; 06-29-2009 at 05:02 PM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumaean_Sibyl

    Hard to disagree with a prophet.

    UNC seems significantly weaker than they have been in several seasons, unless they get unexpected contributions from some young backcourt players. However, (and with the loss of Elliot Williams) they may still deserve to be the favorite.

    Duke, GaTech, and FSU will be in first division IMO. BC will be pretty decent, too.

    Seems wide open generally.
    A Duke education certainly encourages creative, resourceful thinking! Of course, I'm referring to your reference to the prophetess.

    Regarding what to anticipate next year, I must add a point that you and I have discussed at length... the time between now and the first day of practice on campus offers little substantive information regarding play once the season begins.

    If I were going to select a maven to illuminate the 2009-2010 season, I think I'd select The King of Misrule (Captain, Krewe of the Twelfth Night Revelers).

  7. #7
    I accidentally postd this tothe wrong thread earlier ...

    There is never a good year to have Kyle and Lance having by default to cover a perimeter guy.

    This year at least ACC in particular and NCAA in general has an unusual shortage of 3 point shooters, with Duke while down by its 3 point shooter standards perhaps being the most loaded in ACC with Scheyer, Singler and occasionally Nolan, possibility of Kelly, with Mason being a stretch.

    So I suspect we see a sagging man to man employing some zone principles, not much zone per se as 2-3, 1-3-1, and lots of steals by talls the opposing guards can't pass or shoot over more than an overcommitting man to man.

    Just can't afford to get Nolan and Lance into FT playing too aggessively. I also expect to see other team press a lot when Singler has to play SG while Nolan or Jon rest a couple miniutes but with mobile bigs like Kelly/Mason that may play into Duke's favor as much as it hurts.

    I fully expect to see a ton more offensive rebounds and putbacks instead of Duke being in the receiving end of that as has been the case quite a bit this decade.

    MD for example without Dave Neal is even more highly dependent on a couple of frehmen bigs to snare a rebound, as OP referenced

    FSU is not huritng for bigs with Alabi, Reid, Singletary, but after losing a couple good gaurds the year before now loses Toney Douglas too. UNC still has plenty of bigs but is losing Ellington, Lawson and Green not to mention Tyler, and their questions are Drew II at PG (assuming he is 3/4 of Lawson is a stretch) and 3 point shooting, not bigs, with return of Ginyard for defense a big plus.

    BC losing Tyrese Rice but have some good role players returning, VA Tech losing Vassallo but still having Delaney and Jeff Allen, Maimi losing McClinton, Clemson losing KC Rivers and Ogelsby but still have Booker, Wake losing Teague, Hale and Johnson etc. but still have quite a bit of talent,

    plus a few ACC bottom feeders not having much to lose in the first place and still losing guys like Costner and Fells, UVA having a new coach etc.

    So given all that, I do not buy these concerns that Duke is close to 8-8 in ACC. Duke still competes for top honors in ACC and sweet 16/Elite 8 is probably their high water mark but once you get that far anything can happen based a lot on matchups and a little luck, and who gets hot as a team.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    There is never a good year to have Kyle and Lance having by default to cover a perimeter guy.

    This year at least ACC in particular and NCAA in general has an unusual shortage of 3 point shooters, with Duke while down by its 3 point shooter standards perhaps being the most loaded in ACC with Scheyer, Singler and occasionally Nolan, possibility of Kelly, with Mason being a stretch.
    That's a very good point. Our 09-10 roster would have been in big trouble in the 08-09 ACC, when basically every team had a lightning quick, sharpshooting star guard, or two, or three. However, this year, I can't really think of any PGs/SGs that really scare me in terms of matchups. Vasquez, Delaney, Landesburg, Ishmael Smith may be tough, but compared to Lawson/Ellington/Teague/McClinton/Douglas/Rice/Vassalio/Oglesby/Vasquez/Delaney/Landesburg/Smith/etc/etc/etc... not that bad. Many of us may be forgetting to factor in a significantly weaker and less offensively talented ACC into our projections for this team.

  9. #9
    I feel like next year will be one of the weakest the ACC in general has seen in quite a while. Neither of the perennial top two teams will be up to their own standards, bringing all of the teams a lot closer together, and there's definitely a chance for another team to swoop in and win the conference (personally, I expect this to be GT, provided they, and that highly touted freshman of theirs, actually live up to expectations for once).

    That being said, I think we still have a definitely shot at taking the ACC championship. The overall lack of guard talent across the board allows our biggest weakness in next year's team to not be exploited as much as it could have in the past, and there's a chance for our forwards to become big-time players (I am in the camp that feels Mason is going to have a big, immediate positive impact).

    This is going to be one crazy year in the ACC, and personally cannot begin to come up with a predicted finish order. I won't be surprised to see half the conference within a game or two of each other in the end.

  10. #10
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumaean_Sibyl

    Hard to disagree with a prophet.

    UNC seems significantly weaker than they have been in several seasons, unless they get unexpected contributions from some young backcourt players. However, (and with the loss of Elliot Williams) they may still deserve to be the favorite.

    Duke, GaTech, and FSU will be in first division IMO. BC will be pretty decent, too.

    Seems wide open generally.
    Not sure about UNC being SIGNIFICANTLY weaker next year. Weaker, yes. Significantly weaker, not so much.

    Given the roster attrition throughout the ACC, and their margin of superiority may be greatere than last year.

    Their front court rotation will be scary. SCARY. Davis and Thompson will be bears for us to guard, and Zeller and the Wears provide capable, at least, depth.

    The difference between them being good, and them being great, is Henson. Not Drew as was widely reported. If Henson can play the 3, UNC is bananas. That will let them play Ginyard at the 2. From there they only have to get solid play from the PG, with Strickland and McDonald giving good depth. By ACC play, these guys will be seasoned enough to give backup mpg.

    Drew doesn't have to be great for UNC to be good. Drew only has to be decent. If he can give them 60-75% of Lawson, UNC can be a final four team.

    Yes, UNC lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson would start at Duke next year. Heck, any two of them would start next year at Duke. We rip on Drew, but I would love to have a capable, team running PG with experience on the squad. There is not a single guy in their rotation that would not get big minutes at Duke next year, save the Wear Twins (a potential boondoggle down the road for UNC thank god).

    When looking at UNC, everybody focuses on what they lost. Their starting rotation has three guys who played for and won a NC, two guys who ALSO played in another FF and an elite 8, and played against those departed studs in practice every day.

    Sure, there will be an adjustment as role plaers become stars, but by ACC season they should have adjusted.

    As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.

    UNC may take a step back in the conf, but nearly everybody else took a bigger step back. The only team that took a step forward was GT, and they are young and have iffy coaching.

    UNC is no patch on KU or KY, but they look plenty good. Some folks in the national media also mention MSU, but after the physical abuse they suffered last march, I will have to see it to believe it.

    UNC is a top 5 team, yet again.

    Party. Foul.

    Not that anyone will believe this prophet.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Cumae Sybl View Post
    As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.
    There is absolutely zero percent chance that their offense will be better, or even as good, as last year's. They had four top-notch offensive players last year, and they'll be downgraded at offense at those four starting spots.

    But their defense should be one of the best in the country, which is why I like them to win the conference.

  12. #12
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    Halifax, Nova Scotia

    Surprise, a defense of Duke on DBR

    Quote Originally Posted by Cumae Sybl View Post
    Not sure about UNC being SIGNIFICANTLY weaker next year. Weaker, yes. Significantly weaker, not so much.

    Given the roster attrition throughout the ACC, and their margin of superiority may be greatere than last year.

    Their front court rotation will be scary. SCARY. Davis and Thompson will be bears for us to guard, and Zeller and the Wears provide capable, at least, depth.
    I agree their frontcourt has the potential to be very good next year. So does ours. No way they are the runaway favorite like they were last year, and still they didn't win the tournament and ended up only winning the conference on the last day. No way that a single member of Duke's team from the trainers, to the players, to the coaches is at all scared of their frontcourt. Neither am I.

    The difference between them being good, and them being great, is Henson. Not Drew as was widely reported. If Henson can play the 3, UNC is bananas. That will let them play Ginyard at the 2. From there they only have to get solid play from the PG, with Strickland and McDonald giving good depth. By ACC play, these guys will be seasoned enough to give backup mpg.

    Drew doesn't have to be great for UNC to be good. Drew only has to be decent. If he can give them 60-75% of Lawson, UNC can be a final four team.

    Yes, UNC lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson would start at Duke next year. Heck, any two of them would start next year at Duke. We rip on Drew, but I would love to have a capable, team running PG with experience on the squad. There is not a single guy in their rotation that would not get big minutes at Duke next year, save the Wear Twins (a potential boondoggle down the road for UNC thank god).
    Yes, Duke lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Singler, Scheyer or Smith would start at UNC next year. Heck any two of them would start next year at UNC. I would take Nolan over Drew every day of the week and twice on Sundays. There is not a single guy in our 9 man rotation (sorry Olek) who wouldn't get minutes at UNC next year. (I admit it would be hard for some of our guys to get major minutes at the 4 or 5 spots with Thompson and Davis there.)
    When looking at UNC, everybody focuses on what they lost. Their starting rotation has three guys who played for and won a NC, two guys who ALSO played in another FF and an elite 8, and played against those departed studs in practice every day.

    Sure, there will be an adjustment as role plaers become stars, but by ACC season they should have adjusted.

    As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.
    I believe there is a reason people focus on what they lost. They just lost the all-time leading scorer in ACC historysorry JJ. They also lost 2 other first rounders and a second-rounder. Much as I think you may be underrating the potential of Duke next year, I think you may be doing the same for the team that just left UNC.

    UNC may take a step back in the conf, but nearly everybody else took a bigger step back. The only team that took a step forward was GT, and they are young and have iffy coaching.

    UNC is no patch on KU or KY, but they look plenty good. Some folks in the national media also mention MSU, but after the physical abuse they suffered last march, I will have to see it to believe it.

    UNC is a top 5 team, yet again.

    Party. Foul.

    Not that anyone will believe this prophet.
    You are correct, I do not believe this prophet. Could UNC be a top 5 team next year? Sure, but for that to happen, the freshmen have to step up big. Those that discount Duke's chances next year seem to discount the possibility of our freshmen stepping up next year as well. Look, I agree UNC should be picked ahead of Duke to start next year and I agree they have a lot of talent. I guess I also think that experience counts for something and with four starters back next year from the ACC tournament champs and a 30-6 team and 2 top recruits in this year, I think you might miss a lot if you discount Duke's chances to be right in the mix for an ACC championship, along with a few other schools in a wide open year.
    Last edited by NSDukeFan; 06-29-2009 at 09:24 PM. Reason: Finally remembered how to use multi-quote

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    You are correct, I do not believe this prophet. Could UNC be a top 5 team next year? Sure, but for that to happen, the freshmen have to step up big. Those that discount Duke's chances next year seem to discount the possibility of our freshmen stepping up next year as well. Look, I agree UNC should be picked ahead of Duke to start next year and I agree they have a lot of talent. I guess I also think that experience counts for something and with four starters back next year from the ACC tournament champs and a 30-6 team and 2 top recruits in this year, I think you might miss a lot if you discount Duke's chances to be right in the mix for an ACC championship, along with a few other schools in a wide open year.
    Not to nitpick but Duke was 30-7. I agree with what you say.

    Lets do the who would you rather have game..

    Smith Or Drew? For me its easy. Smith.

    Scheyer or Ginyard/Strickland. I would take Scheyer over Ginyard but Strickland has a chance to be pretty good. For now I take Jon.

    Singler or Henson. Henson really has more potential but Singler is already there. Depends on who you are.

    Thomas or Davis. I would take Davis. I think he has a chance to be special. Probably lead UNC in scoring.

    Zoubek or Thompson. Im thinking Thompson but it will be interesting to see how Zoubek progresses. Being 7'0 or 7'1 he has an advantage.. But will he take advantage?

    Bench. Kelly/Plumlee/Plumlee/Olek or McDonald/Wear/Wear/Zeller. Plus the non starter of Ginyard/Strickland. I believe UNC has more depth but The two Plumlee's and Kelly have a higher ceiling. Probably give the slight advantage to UNC for now.

  14. #14
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    Agree with NSDuke Fan

    UNC may be very good, but they still have a million question marks. Who is their most proven player? Deon Thompson, a career role player who by all accounts has been underwhelming this summer. Ginyard was a solid defender before his injury, but he was never an offensive threat and is another question mark after a major injury and a year off. Davis, Henson, Zeller and Strickland all show potential, sure, but who knows what they'll do next year? None of them have proven themselves to be big-time college-level players yet, unless you count Davis' 6.7 PPG. And I haven't seen much from Drew, McDonald or the Wears to concern me yet.

    They may well pull it together and win the ACC, but I see no reason why they're a lock to be a nationally elite team at this point. Especially on a Duke message board, geez...

  15. #15
    I agree with the poster that said the ACC will be down next year. I also agree that you better keep an eye on Maryland. They basically have the same team as last year and you have to believe they can find a freshman to get the rebounds Neal got. Also, Gary is a decent bench coach. After Carolina, it could go a lot of ways. It could come down to who puts in the most work over the summer.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Cumae Sybl View Post
    Not sure about UNC being SIGNIFICANTLY weaker next year. Weaker, yes. Significantly weaker, not so much.

    Given the roster attrition throughout the ACC, and their margin of superiority may be greatere than last year.

    Their front court rotation will be scary. SCARY. Davis and Thompson will be bears for us to guard, and Zeller and the Wears provide capable, at least, depth.

    The difference between them being good, and them being great, is Henson. Not Drew as was widely reported. If Henson can play the 3, UNC is bananas. That will let them play Ginyard at the 2. From there they only have to get solid play from the PG, with Strickland and McDonald giving good depth. By ACC play, these guys will be seasoned enough to give backup mpg.

    Drew doesn't have to be great for UNC to be good. Drew only has to be decent. If he can give them 60-75% of Lawson, UNC can be a final four team.

    Yes, UNC lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson would start at Duke next year. Heck, any two of them would start next year at Duke. We rip on Drew, but I would love to have a capable, team running PG with experience on the squad. There is not a single guy in their rotation that would not get big minutes at Duke next year, save the Wear Twins (a potential boondoggle down the road for UNC thank god).

    When looking at UNC, everybody focuses on what they lost. Their starting rotation has three guys who played for and won a NC, two guys who ALSO played in another FF and an elite 8, and played against those departed studs in practice every day.

    Sure, there will be an adjustment as role plaers become stars, but by ACC season they should have adjusted.

    As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.

    UNC may take a step back in the conf, but nearly everybody else took a bigger step back. The only team that took a step forward was GT, and they are young and have iffy coaching.

    UNC is no patch on KU or KY, but they look plenty good. Some folks in the national media also mention MSU, but after the physical abuse they suffered last march, I will have to see it to believe it.

    UNC is a top 5 team, yet again.

    Party. Foul.

    Not that anyone will believe this prophet.
    Here's the thing, even with Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green, UNC was only an average ACC team when Lawson didn't play over the past two years. I don't know how you could assign Drew a percentage of Lawson, but in my mind the bottom line is Lawson is who made UNC special and Drew isn't close.

    I agree that the biggest key to UNC's season is how good Henson is, but he's a freshman just like MP2 and Kelly, so I don't think you can make any judgments until we see the kids play some games.

    If we don't suffer any major injuries (and, yes, I'm knocking on wood as I type that) our two-man backcourt is better than UNC's, even though they have more bodies there than we do. I believe that if we get lucky and don't have such injuries then our team and UNC's team are pretty equal. I'm no prophet but obviously we'll see who's right sometime next season.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If we don't suffer any major injuries (and, yes, I'm knocking on wood as I type that) our two-man backcourt is better than UNC's, even though they have more bodies there than we do.
    You make an excellent point. Carolina is in worse shape than we are as far as the backcourt goes. Drew is no Ty Lawson or Ray Felton. If Scheyer and Smith stay healthy, Duke potentially has the best backcourt duo in the league. When you throw Singler into the mix, at small forward/wing guard, we are in solid shape. If we suffer an injury to one of those three, the situation becomes cloudy.
    Bob Green

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    You make an excellent point. Carolina is in worse shape than we are as far as the backcourt goes. Drew is no Ty Lawson or Ray Felton. If Scheyer and Smith stay healthy, Duke potentially has the best backcourt duo in the league. When you throw Singler into the mix, at small forward/wing guard, we are in solid shape. If we suffer an injury to one of those three, the situation becomes cloudy.
    I think that's an optimistic statement. If we suffer a serious injury to any one of those three, I think the situation becomes much worse than cloudy. If we lose any of those three, we have a very weak team in my opinion. We then have only two guys remotely capable of defending at the guard spot and handling the ball. And that's being generous with Singler's ability to defend at guard.

    Having a potentially talented frontcourt (and remember, it remains to be seen how good our frontcourt will actually be) does not make up for weakness in the backcourt. You need to have the backcourt in place to do well. And if we only have two guys capable of playing the backcourt on the team, well, that's trouble.

    First and foremost, we're going to need the "little three" to stay healthy. But almost just as importantly, Smith is going to need to make major progress as a player. He showed signs of it early last year, but he's going to have to be able to play close to 35 minutes of productive basketball every night for this year's team. If that happens, maybe we can survive the lack of depth. And then maybe we can see what the frontcourt brings us.

  19. #19
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    I think the members of this forum are being more optimistic than they should be. Sure, we all hope that Duke wins as many games as possible, but over a 30+ game season, our 3 guards must averaged 55+ points per game combined. Jon and Kyle shouldn't have a problem holding up their end, but is Smith up to the task? Sure, we have some highly regarded freshman coming in, but one of them will have to have an "ACC freshman of the year" type year for Duke to be a contender. Its all about how consistent our team can score and how deep our bench can go, if we do not go deep enough, look for a late season drop off like we have had for the last 5 years. Am I being a touch pessimistic? Perhaps...

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think that's an optimistic statement. If we suffer a serious injury to any one of those three, I think the situation becomes much worse than cloudy. If we lose any of those three, we have a very weak team in my opinion. We then have only two guys remotely capable of defending at the guard spot and handling the ball. And that's being generous with Singler's ability to defend at guard.

    Having a potentially talented frontcourt (and remember, it remains to be seen how good our frontcourt will actually be) does not make up for weakness in the backcourt. You need to have the backcourt in place to do well. And if we only have two guys capable of playing the backcourt on the team, well, that's trouble.

    First and foremost, we're going to need the "little three" to stay healthy. But almost just as importantly, Smith is going to need to make major progress as a player. He showed signs of it early last year, but he's going to have to be able to play close to 35 minutes of productive basketball every night for this year's team. If that happens, maybe we can survive the lack of depth. And then maybe we can see what the frontcourt brings us.
    I'm definitely among the wildly optimistic posters, but I can't disagree with CDu's points here, having made 1 or 2 of them myself. For that matter, I doubt many could possibly ignore the ominous danger of injury to any of "the 3," nor of merely minimal improvement from NS. As I've commented elsewhere on board, K will surely tell it to NS straight, which in my K-channeling is: "Nolan, you gotta play; no meek crap."

    As for our spot in ACC, here was my take 2 weeks ago, in aftermath of "draft fallout" but before EWill's departure:

    Top tier -
    1. Duke-UNC tie, 12-4
    3. Ga Tech, almost certainly the by-far biggest jump up from '08-'09, maybe challenge for 2d, but let's say 10-6

    Middle/muddle tier -
    4. FSU - Alabi, Singleton, Kitchen, Dulkys may improve noticeably, and Snaer is reported to be excellent, 9-7
    5. BC - lots of experience, Skinner gets his guys to play his system very consistently, Trapani 2d maybe 1st-team ACC, 9-7
    6. Md - still smallish, but now lots of experience and several solid players, 9-7
    7. Clemson - loss of Oglesby hurts, but Booker surely 1st-team ACC, long-shot possible CPOY?, 8-8
    8. Va Tech - Allen and Delaney, maybe I've got 'em too low, 7-9
    9. Wake -devastating losses to early NBA, 7-9

    Bottom tier -
    10. Miami - I sure don't see them as dead last, but maybe they're closer to bottom than I'd have figured, so, 5-11
    11. UVa-NCSt tie - both are a year away even from middle of, uh, the pack - 4-12

    So, now with EWill gone, how far do we fall, relative to others, esp at top? My optimism shows here, for I'd say we're still top tier, let's say still 12-4, maybe 11-5. But as I and many others have said, the ACC is considerably down next year, so we still have lots of talent, just not nicely balanced, position-wise.

    Further, if most now concede top spot to UNC, does that ignore the fact that Duke is actually in better shape than UNC at the point: to wit, NS/JS are superior to Drew/Ginyard/Strickland at PG. Aren't they? As long as we're agonizing over injury to NS, what befalls UNC should Drew go down? Or Wake if Smith gets hurt? Or MD without Vasquez for awhile? Clemson absent Stitt? It's true that our perimeter generally is appallingly thin, but specifically on the injury issue, several teams are on thin ice.

    The more I think about it, GaTech, if Favors is real deal, and if Hewitt is decent X/O coach, is primed to challenge for 1-2 spot.

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