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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    greater New Orleans area

    What will Duke's game look like next year.

    With all the concern over recruiting, concern about how good (or not depening on how you see your cup), concern about potential USA basketball impacts etc. etc. etc. I thought it might be more fun to get others thoughts about how the team might play next year, strategy-wise if you will...and given all the speculation on the starting lineup, concerns over guard depth, potential size advantage, etc. How much differently will the Duke team play next year. This year it appeared to me that the team really focused on defense early in the season, some argued to the detriment of offensive development.
    In the end the team played most games at a moderate scoring pace, seemed to focus significantly on individual ability to drive to the lane and get to the rim or pass out from mid-range. Not a lot of passing in to the rim for post-up opportunities for a multitude of reasons, not too many runouts. Not too many set plays, perhaps in effort to duplicate Team USA's ability to create on the court.
    Will the team have to slow down? Will we see a significant effort to force development of the interior game early on? Can/should the team maintain a fast pace? Will there be a drop in three point shooting %? Any prophets out there on what we will see next season?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    The team will look like Duke. They'll play extremely hard on every play, be aggressive on both ends of the court, and play very smart basketball. What more do you need to know?
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    https://ecogreen.greentechaffiliate.com

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    Lightbulb No fast-paced game for this squad...

    Sorry, as I too love to see lots of running and scoring. But there's just NO WAY this team is going to run much. With only 2 scholarship guards on the roster, there's just simply no way to run and (1) provide relief for fatigued guards; (2) have enough athletic/speed ability overall (except for Smith); and (3) more trips back and forth will mean more opportunities for our guards to pick up more fouls (see above re depth, especially fast depth). We will play long stretches with no more than one player on the court under 6'8" -- just not a formula for running.

    I foresee a lot more set plays (we don't have any 1-on-1 "creators" like Henderson now) and lots of post-up moves. If we are playing 4 guys between 6'8" and 7'2" much of the time, then there WILL be match-up problems for opponents where we can repeatedly force plays inside. Your typical opponent won't be able to play 4 bigs to be able to match up with us. So, for example, if someone like Vazquez (MD) - about 6'3" I think - is trying to guard a Kyle Singler at the 2G slot... With a 6" height advantage, what do you do?? You post up... a lot! Same goes for a 6'5" SF type trying to guard a Lance Thomas or Ryan Kelly at the 3. Expect some pretty good rebounding differentials in our favor as well.

    What I worry about is this: it is reasonable to expect other teams to use their speedy, smaller guys to penetrate and run past us. If Scheyer or Smith has fouls or fatigue or injuries, I see it as challenging for a 6'9" Singler, subbing in at the 2G, to consistently cover someone like a Vazquez (who can also pop from the outside).

    One nice thing is that you KNOW Coach K is going to just love addressing this new circumstance and how to work around our lack of G depth.

    -BDBD
    Last edited by -bdbd; 07-01-2009 at 10:05 PM.

  4. #4

    slow it down...

    bdbd is right, no chance of running. It's the 1st time EVER that I am more excited about what we are going to do on the defensive side of the ball than offensive. No way Coach K goes full court press or even 3/4 press - look for constant half court trapping (which actually worked well for us at the end of the year LY). Rather than seeing Kyle at the high point in the 1-3-1 trap, he will be trapping on one of the wings. Look for Lance at the top while one of our freshman standouts runs the baseline. This will cause many turnovers because of our size. Not sure what happens after we create the turnover and the ball is in our hands...flex offense?

    We will be OK and strong enough to win the regular season and the Duke Invitational Tournament - let's make a run to the FINAL 4!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    For the first time I think our football team will have more speed than our hoopsters. Keep up the great work coach Cut!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Wink Vasquez?

    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Your typical opponent won't be able to play 4 bigs to be able to match up with us. So, for example, if someone like Vazquez (MD) - about 6'3" I think - is trying to guard a Kyle Singler at the 2G slot... With a 6" height advantage, what do you do?? You post up... a lot! Same goes for a 6'5" SF type trying to guard a Lance Thomas or Ryan Kelly at the 3. Expect some pretty good rebounding differentials in our favor as well.

    What I worry about is this: it is reasonable to expect other teams to use their speedy, smaller guys to penetrate and run past us. If Scheyer or Smith has fouls or fatigue or injuries, I see it as challenging for a 6'9" Singler, subbing in at the 2G, to consistently cover someone like a Vazquez (who can also pop from the outside).
    I don't think Greivis Vasquez, who is listed as 6-6 and 190 lbs., is going to blow by anybody on the Duke roster. At the NBA combine he was the weakest in the running, jumping, lifting tests. Smart, versatile, tricky -- maybe. I think Singler will do just fine against Greivis.

    sagegrouse

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Sorry, as I too love to see lots of running and scoring. But there's just NO WAY this team is going to run much. With only 2 scholarship guards on the roster, there's just simply no way to run and (1) provide relief for fatigued guards; (2) have enough athletic/speed ability overall (except for Smith); and (3) more trips back and forth will mean more opportunities for our guards to pick up more fouls (see above re depth, especially fast depth). We will play long stretches with no more than one player on the court under 6'8" -- just not a formula for running.

    I foresee a lot more set plays (we don't have any 1-on-1 "creators" like Henderson now) and lots of post-up moves. If we are playing 4 guys between 6'8" and 7'2" much of the time, then there WILL be match-up problems for opponents where we can repeatedly force plays inside. Your typical opponent won't be able to play 4 bigs to be able to match up with us. So, for example, if someone like Vazquez (MD) - about 6'3" I think - is trying to guard a Kyle Singler at the 2G slot... With a 6" height advantage, what do you do?? You post up... a lot! Same goes for a 6'5" SF type trying to guard a Lance Thomas or Ryan Kelly at the 3. Expect some pretty good rebounding differentials in our favor as well.

    What I worry about is this: it is reasonable to expect other teams to use their speedy, smaller guys to penetrate and run past us. If Scheyer or Smith has fouls or fatigue or injuries, I see it as challenging for a 6'9" Singler, subbing in at the 2G, to consistently cover someone like a Vazquez (who can also pop from the outside).

    One nice thing is that you KNOW Coach K is going to just love addressing this new circumstance and how to work around our lack of G depth.

    -BDBD
    I LOVE this statement! I agree completely.

  8. #8
    Duke's primary offense will be a 5-man motion offense, which is very different from the isolation offense we played last year or the D'Antoni offense we played the year before that. The only game in 2008-09 we seemed to run anything close to what I think we'll see next year was the first Michigan game (the win in New York, rather than the later game in Michigan). Also, contrary to what other posters are saying, I think we'll run more than we did last year -- I've said this in another thread but it is actually less tiring to run full-court in straight lines than it is to be in constant motion in the half-court, which will be our usual offense, so while we won't be running like UNC the last few years I believe we actually will run when we can.

    On defense, although I think a half-court trap would be intriguing, what I believe we'll see is a loose man defense, where the perimeter players try to cut off shots while channeling opposing drives to the middle where hopefully large help defenders will show up to challenge the shot. This could make us vulnerable to baseline cuts, which our frontcourt will have to try and control. However, if our big guys can clog the lane I think this defense could work, and work well.

    In short, if we can avoid injuries or foul trouble to the three S's (NS, JS, KS) I think Duke will be successful and a fun team to watch. Call me blindly optimistic if you wish, but I really believe it.

  9. #9
    Despite pleas from the Duke message baords,coach K will not play much zone.

    With the shortage of ACC 3 point shooters not named Singler, Scheyer, Malcolm Delaney and Eric Hayes kind of by themself among returnees though I am sure a few will surface but no Teague or Hale, no McClinton, no Rice, no KC Rivers, or Oglesby, no Ellington. Green, Lawson, etc

    I exect coach K to employ zone principles in a sagging man to man and rely on height to force opponents into worst shot in basketball the fall away jumper one foot inside the line (think Tyalor king five feet further in).

    If he keeps one or two post defenders at home in paint rather than letting opponent run isolation, they can be mini-landlord's disrupting penetration.

    He will run when he can which of course is facilitated by defensive rebounding or steals by talls/longs if not quicks. Huge height advantage almost always C 6'10 240 or bigger, PF 6'10 215 or bigger and SF 6'8 220 or bigger plus 6'5" guard and 6'2 leaper.

    As much as Duke was maligned by defensive rebounds until last couple of seasons not as badly, this year is the oposite and Duke gets a ton of offensive rebounds and putbacks versus everybody but UNC, GT and FSU, probably even over Clemson, Wake, Miami and NC St, surely over MD, UVA, VA Tech, BC, OOC foes except for finals of coaches vs Cancer, much bigger experience wise than Wisc who plays this style

  10. #10
    Duke may have a couple of other intangible plusses like having siblings play the PF/C combo in one set with Z/Kelly the other. I also think having guys making the entry passes being talls who have played the post before can be a plus, seeing over the defender, knowing how frustrating it is to work hard to establish position and then not having the ball passed in, or having it too late or in wrong spot.

    When Z is in the game his 15 MPG, he is one of Duke's best +/- guys per Jumbo's stats, but also clogs the middle and prevents Kyle from posting up his smaller guy. OTOH, a 270 pound screen opens up a lot of dribble drive for Nolan.

    The other bigs with possible exception of Miles can play Pittsnoggle or Euro pick and roll style to really cause some immobile bigs some matchup challenges or at least pull more mobile bigs from the paint if the frosh can hit from outside vs. college competition.

    Once more ploy, using Olek for 5 more post fouls at 6'7" 240 to perhaps draw half as many fouls trying to stop his thunder dunks as he commits in his 5-10 MPG, kind of like a low skills hockey player inducing matching 5 min fighting majors with foe's best player, thus softening the gap between Miles/Z and their center who is either playing with some foul trouble or subbed out.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC

    attacking the zone

    I think our opponents will play a lot of zone against us. Our shooting bigs - Kyle, Kelly, MP2, possibly even Lance - will have to make enough outside jump shots to keep the defense honest, otherwise they'll pack it in inside. We'll usually have a size advantage, but I don't think straight-up "shooting over a shorter defender" makes for a very good offense.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I think our opponents will play a lot of zone against us. Our shooting bigs - Kyle, Kelly, MP2, possibly even Lance - will have to make enough outside jump shots to keep the defense honest, otherwise they'll pack it in inside. We'll usually have a size advantage, but I don't think straight-up "shooting over a shorter defender" makes for a very good offense.
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan
    The other bigs with possible exception of Miles can play Pittsnoggle or Euro pick and roll style to really cause some immobile bigs some matchup challenges or at least pull more mobile bigs from the paint if the frosh can hit from outside vs. college competition.
    I'm curious, where is this perception that Mason is a good long range shooter coming from? I've seen in posted by numerous people before on here.

    I watched all of his all-star games and videos and have extremely high hopes for him, but every time I saw him take a 16-18'+ jumper it did not look like a shot that he had any business taking (yet, at least). His form also looked like it needed work. I am quite excited about his length, agility, ball-handling and aggresiveness attacking the rim, so I can see him being very effective in pick and roll scenarios next year... pick and pops, not so much though.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia

    It depends

    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I think our opponents will play a lot of zone against us. Our shooting bigs - Kyle, Kelly, MP2, possibly even Lance - will have to make enough outside jump shots to keep the defense honest, otherwise they'll pack it in inside. We'll usually have a size advantage, but I don't think straight-up "shooting over a shorter defender" makes for a very good offense.
    where you are shooting from. I like this offense in the key.
    I don't think our lack of traditional guards will necessarily keep us from running next year as I do think we have guys who can get up and down the floor and would like to see Kyle, Ryan, Mason, etc. with chances to finish on the break and get some easy baskets.
    Last edited by NSDukeFan; 07-02-2009 at 06:27 PM. Reason: Addition

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    My real question is, will coach K finally be forced to change his defensive strategy after decades of pretty much the same thing?

    I'm not saying he will play lots of zone, but might we see a lot of SAGGING man to man with such a dearth of quality three-point shooters and top tier guards in the ACC next year? Perhaps a bit MORE zone than last year?

    This is the question that intrigues me the most.

    On Offense, we are going to see A LOT of inside-out basketball, and me might see interior passing the likes of which we haven't seen since, at least, 2004.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Wink Wow! Why won't this question go away?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    My real question is, will coach K finally be forced to change his defensive strategy after decades of pretty much the same thing?

    I'm not saying he will play lots of zone, but might we see a lot of SAGGING man to man with such a dearth of quality three-point shooters and top tier guards in the ACC next year? Perhaps a bit MORE zone than last year?

    This is the question that intrigues me the most.

    .
    K has been a head coach for 34 years and has played zone defense only in special situations. He has had phenomenal success in the past three decades at Duke. The man-to-an defense has been a big part of it.

    The Duke teams, including this past year's, play really, really hard on defense, often discouraging the opponents. "Animals," "Effing animals," one opposing coach said.

    Maybe he should have said at his presser, “I’m not leaving Duke, and I am not playing the zone defense.

    sagegrouse

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC

    Wink Why won't people read posts before they respond

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    K has been a head coach for 34 years and has played zone defense only in special situations. He has had phenomenal success in the past three decades at Duke. The man-to-an defense has been a big part of it.

    The Duke teams, including this past year's, play really, really hard on defense, often discouraging the opponents. "Animals," "Effing animals," one opposing coach said.

    Maybe he should have said at his presser, “I’m not leaving Duke, and I am not playing the zone defense.

    sagegrouse
    As I said, I DON'T think K will play a lot of zone. However, I am interested to see if K backs off of the "Animals, Effing Animals" hardnosed D a bit next year. Why? Because K adapts styles to his teams as we all know. Well, this team is NOT built to play that kind of defense all year long. Sorry, It just isn't. So, it stands to reason that K would adapt his defense to the personnel, right?

    That being said... I don't completely buy that mess about K adapting style of play to his personnel. I believe he always does it for offensive style, but it is my opinion that he has actually shown very very little flexibility on the defensive end in the past. Usually that doesn't matter because usually we have the guards to play his style of hard-nosed man defense. This year, not so much.

    As to WHY people keep bringing up zone... well, why wouldn't people ask if we will play more zone? We played more zone last year than we have in recent memory. When was the last time anybody remembers a Duke team playing almost an entire half of a trapping zone (@BC) like we did last season. K was influenced by Boeheim and international opponents and we have seen that influence in an increasing willingness to try zone.

    I, for one, prefer man to man 99% of the time, but questions about Zone seem entirely justified to me. Obviously people who call for Syracuse style defense all year long do not understand K, but we must recognize that there is a trend.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Smile Fair comment

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    As I said, I DON'T think K will play a lot of zone. However, I am interested to see if K backs off of the "Animals, Effing Animals" hardnosed D a bit next year. Why? Because K adapts styles to his teams as we all know. Well, this team is NOT built to play that kind of defense all year long. Sorry, It just isn't. So, it stands to reason that K would adapt his defense to the personnel, right?

    That being said... I don't completely buy that mess about K adapting style of play to his personnel. I believe he always does it for offensive style, but it is my opinion that he has actually shown very very little flexibility on the defensive end in the past. Usually that doesn't matter because usually we have the guards to play his style of hard-nosed man defense. This year, not so much.

    As to WHY people keep bringing up zone... well, why wouldn't people ask if we will play more zone? We played more zone last year than we have in recent memory. When was the last time anybody remembers a Duke team playing almost an entire half of a trapping zone (@BC) like we did last season. K was influenced by Boeheim and international opponents and we have seen that influence in an increasing willingness to try zone.

    I, for one, prefer man to man 99% of the time, but questions about Zone seem entirely justified to me. Obviously people who call for Syracuse style defense all year long do not understand K, but we must recognize that there is a trend.
    You had a fair comment. I think you are wasting your breath: K is going to play man not zone.

    sagegrouse
    'Really proud to be labeled GRANT HILL on my previous post.'

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    You had a fair comment. I think you are wasting your breath: K is going to play man not zone.

    sagegrouse
    'Really proud to be labeled GRANT HILL on my previous post.'
    I agree wholeheartedly (as I said), but will we see a sagging man that emphasizes protecting the paint rather than the trademark "in your face, deny entry passes with pressure, poach passing lanes defense"??

    That would seem to make sense to me, but K has never embraced that style. I can honestly say, I'm not sure which style would best suit this team.

    The zone question really boils down to: Will K play Zone ~1% of the time (per usual), ~5% of the time (like last year, which was a change) or more (as it seems to be a recent trend to increase the amount of time K throws out the zone)

  19. #19

    Size

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Also, contrary to what other posters are saying, I think we'll run more than we did last year -- I've said this in another thread but it is actually less tiring to run full-court in straight lines than it is to be in constant motion in the half-court, which will be our usual offense, so while we won't be running like UNC the last few years I believe we actually will run when we can.
    Since Duke is going to be bigger, the team should be getting a lot of rebounds, and if you are rebounding well on the defensive end that gives you the opportunity to push the ball up the court. That doesn't mean that Duke will be doing a Paul Westhead, but they should have plenty of opportunities for the controlled break, and if it's not there, then they can start their regular offense. As Hall Wissel has noted, "In the controlled fast break, fundamental execution and good decision making matter more than speed." Not to mention that at least psychologically, it wears down the opponents more than the team that's executing it.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    greater New Orleans area

    inside out or outside in

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    On Offense, we are going to see A LOT of inside-out basketball, and me might see interior passing the likes of which we haven't seen since, at least, 2004.
    Of all the things I thought the team had difficulty with last season, it was interior passing...part of this due to Z and others not being in the game consistently and partly due to the changing PG situation...so some players and synchronization never really developed.

    This year, I almost expect to see more of an outside in game, with JS and wings taking open shots when truly open, but working much harder to pass the ball in to posting big men, more reposting when initial shot isn't there etc. Will be interesting to see if they really focus on this early on or if the team focuses on using the interior to set up open outside shots...

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