Baseball Superstars

[NYC Duke Fan]

In my opinion right now there are only 3 superstars in baseball; A-Rod, Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez ,( when he plays ).

The follwing in my opinion are getting close but not there yet : Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau and Joe Maurer.

The follwing have the potential to be one but have a way to go : Evan Longoria, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Ryan Zimmerman, Chase Utely, Dustin Pedroia, Miguel Cabrerra, Ryan Braun

I did not include Derek Jeter, Carlos Beltran or Chipper Jones even though they are excellent players , I do not consider them to be super stars now and I do not think that they will get any better.

I am excluding pitchers.

Any additions or subtractions from my list ?

[kmspeaks]

I think I would have to bump Morneau down a level. To me a superstar is a player that even people who don't watch the sport know who he is. While he is an excellent player I don't see Morneau as close to that level.

To your list of those with potential but a long way to go I would add Baltimore's Adam Jones. Granted he will need to show continued improvement but with his performance last year and the early part of this year I believe he has shown the potential.

[pfrduke]

Hanley Ramirez needs to be on the list somewhere (even if he is toiling in Marlin-induced obscurity).

[InSpades]

Not sure how you separated Morneau or Mauer from the rest of the group (Twins fan?). Morneau is nothing special... Adrien Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira are arguably better and you didn't list them at all.

Mauer is interesting... this year he is showing power but it is really the only power he has shown so far in his career. If he can hit for power and keep his average close to where it's been for his career then he definitely is one of the top players in the game. However if he's hitting .330 w/ 10 home runs... I'm not sure if he qualifies.

David Wright also puts up #s that rival Morneau.

Another player you left out entirely is Hanley Ramirez who is way better than Jose Reyes. I'd put Hanley up there w/ Ryan Howard in the group just below the top group.

[Mal]

Bias disclosure first: Twins fan here.

If we're talking about "superstars" in the sense I think of them (ie, the most popular players nationally, who garner the most out of home market media attention), then the M&M boys will likely never be in the highest echelon of superstars (until they leave). Only one Twin ever has reached that stratosphere.

If, instead, we're really talking about who are the best players in the game right now, then that's a different story. As to Morneau, I'd disagree with inSpades's wording of calling him "nothing special." That's far too Yankees fan-sounding and dismissive of someone with an MVP Award, who's averaged 123 RBIs and an OPS+ of around 133 over the last three seasons, and who's currently sporting an OPS over 1.000 with 47 RBIs and 14 homers a third of the way through this one. That said, his career stats are virtually indistinguishable from Texeira and Gonzalez (and Miguel Cabrera), so point taken. We'll see how the rest of their careers turn out.

Where inSpades loses me is on Mauer. As any Twins fan will tell you, he's the better of the two and it's not that close. You're failing to note the most important aspect: he's a catcher. A 26 year-old catcher with two batting titles, a Gold Glove, and a career OPS+ of 135, to be precise. If (big if, of course) he continued to hit .335/.450/.885 for another 12 years, he would likely accumulate 200 homeruns and go down as one of the best hitting catchers ever, with a chance to be the all-time hits leader among catchers in about 2/3 the time it took Fisk to get there. Throw in another few Gold Gloves and you're talking about a surefire Hall of Fame resume. He certainly qualifies as one of the best players in the game, even without this year. For the record, in '06 Mauer hit 13 homers with 34 doubles and 4 triples for the second-highest OPS in the majors for a catcher, so this season's outburst isn't the "only time" he's shown any power in his career. It's just the first full blossoming of that power.

Not that I don't appreciate the otherworldly batting performance he's shown this season, of course. At the moment, he's undeniably the most dangerous hitter in the game. Again, as a catcher. Compare him to his peers - he's only been off the DL about 30 games, yet he's already leading the majors in HRs for a catcher and is second in RBI. This to go with an OPS of about 1.400, and he's already made what will probably be hands down the most amazing defensive play of the season by a catcher. Obviously it can't last like this, but I'll certainly take it for the time being.

[NYC Duke Fan]

Absolutely correct about Hanley Ramirez.

I totally agree with MAL even though I am not a Twin fan...Mauer is special and is bordering on being a superstar

[InSpades]

Mauer is a great player... I'm just saying without power he is not in the category of A-Rod, Pujols and Manny (and never will be). His seasonal averages work out to something like 10 home runs and 80 RBI. Obviously he also hits for a great average which is what makes him one of the top catchers in baseball. However being one of the best at your position doesn't get you put in the category of the above 3 (being one of the best all-time does). Throw out this season and you really have no case at all. This season he is doing something special that's for sure. I'm not ready to take 30 games and say it's more telling than the 500+ he played before it. This is a guy who put up less than 10 home runs the past 2 years.

[weezie]

Nothing to disagree with on the original list, but I sure would like to add Curtis Granderson to the list of up and comers.
A beautifully pure baseball talent with great wheels.

[Mal]

Mauer is a great player... I'm just saying without power he is not in the category of A-Rod, Pujols and Manny (and never will be). His seasonal averages work out to something like 10 home runs and 80 RBI. Obviously he also hits for a great average which is what makes him one of the top catchers in baseball. However being one of the best at your position doesn't get you put in the category of the above 3 (being one of the best all-time does). Throw out this season and you really have no case at all. This season he is doing something special that's for sure. I'm not ready to take 30 games and say it's more telling than the 500+ he played before it. This is a guy who put up less than 10 home runs the past 2 years.

I guess I'll disagree on a couple of points, although it may be more semantic than anything. Even without this season, who's challenging Mauer for best catcher in the majors over the prior three years? Brian McCann? Jorge "Hands of Stone" Posada? I know homeruns are the be all end all for some but lack of pure power didn't stop Ichiro from becoming one of the most popular players out there and winning an MVP. Again, two batting titles by age 25. No catcher had won a batting title in something like 50 years prior to Mauer. He's a different kind of hitter than most catchers. He doesn't fit the mold of sitting in the 5 hole and swinging for the fences and hitting a lot of RBI sac flies. He'll never be as big an RBI guy as he could be because he's working deep counts and scoring runs, not driving them in, from the 2 or 3 spot in the order. Plus, most guys trend upward in power numbers as they get beyond their early '20s, anyway.

We may just be coming at this differently. I agree that Rodriguez, Ramirez and Pujols are in another category from Mauer in terms of homerun prowess and overall production at the plate (and over a long period of time for all of them). And that, if we're defining stardom by piling up the big homerun and RBI stats and leading off SportsCenter highlights, a guy who hits .340 with 8-10 homers and 80 RBIs will never been seen in the same light. That is the way stardom works, I guess, so maybe I'm just railing against that generally.

But two of the three of those other guys play at two of the least important defensive positions, and one of them is a complete liability in the field (which makes A-Rod stand out above even those two all-time great hitters, in my eyes). People seem to require a catcher to produce in the same way, and with the same numbers, as anyone else in the game to be considered a truly elite player. I think differently, given the inherent discount in plate appearances (cutting down on accumulation stats) and the defensive duties, which are 100% more physically taxing and important than any other non-pitcher position. Maybe Mike Piazza changed everyone's expectations of catchers at the plate too much. Maybe I'm too defensive of catchers (former pitcher myself, so I may be overly attentive to their contributions and to what an incredible liability a poor catcher is).

I recognize that without growing into a big homerun hitter, Mauer would always be seen by many as somehow lacking something, but I think that's because people aren't looking at his contributions correctly.

[NYC Duke Fan]

Mauer is a great player... I'm just saying without power he is not in the category of A-Rod, Pujols and Manny (and never will be). His seasonal averages work out to something like 10 home runs and 80 RBI. Obviously he also hits for a great average which is what makes him one of the top catchers in baseball. However being one of the best at your position doesn't get you put in the category of the above 3 (being one of the best all-time does). Throw out this season and you really have no case at all. This season he is doing something special that's for sure. I'm not ready to take 30 games and say it's more telling than the 500+ he played before it. This is a guy who put up less than 10 home runs the past 2 years.

Pete Rose hit 16 Homeruns the most he ever hit,only twice in his career. Pete Rose was a super star and I don't necessarily think that HRs are the do-all for labeling a player a super star.

[InSpades]

Obviously if you are looking at batting average then Mauer looks really good. He's led the league twice. I think BA is a pretty overrated statistic though. Slugging Percentage and OPS (on-base plus slugging) are more meaningful.

Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
McCann .298 .361 .500 .861
Mauer .322 .405 .476 .881
Posada .278 .380 .480 .860

Those are career #s. I think it's pretty close. If you look at only the past 3 years it's even closer. Posada has somehow gotten better recently (aside from last year which was basically lost due to injury). McCann has had better years than Mauer in 2 of the last 3.

Mauer certainly has the edge defensively though.

As for Pete Rose... I think he benefits from 2 things. 1st off he played in a different era, so his lack of power wasn't as noticeable. Also he played forever. I think his longevity is what sets him apart more than anything else.

Pujols might deserve his own category though. He is hands down the best hitter in baseball.

[Mal]

Of course BA is a flawed and incomplete stat. OPS is obviously a more complete measure, but it too has its limitations (despite my citing it, and OPS+, a good bit in prior posts). Notably, (1) there's no inherent reason for the ratio of OBP and SP to be 1/1, so slugging is probably overcredited, (2) slugging is itself a flawed statistic (is a triple really three times as valuable as a single?), and (3) both OBP and SP fail to account for baserunning ability. Cases in point: Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn both had career OPS's right around .850. Perhaps their abilities were overrated, but I don't think their obviously Hall of Fame credentials are seriously tarnished because they hit a lot of line drive singles and gap doubles instead of booming homeruns.

Additionally, the marginal difficulty for a given hitter of increasing their OBP by 10 points is probably greater than the difficulty of increasing Slugging by a commensurate amount, although they both contribute 10 points to OPS. This is especially worth keeping in mind when comparing people in different parts of the batting order. The extra 10 points in OBP are typically more worth more to his team for a leadoff through third hitter in terms of runs scored, as well. Guys sitting at 5 or 6 in the order are better off hitting the long ball, as the guys behind them at the bottom of the order aren't likely to get them (or someone on base in front of them) around station to station if they hit a single or take a walk.

In some senses, runs scored could be used in this conversation, too. Although again, it's obviously a flawed measure since it's dependent on other batters and lineup position. Nonetheless, it's generally true that batters with higher on-base percentages score more runs than those with high slugging percentages. It's also true that scoring runs is how you win baseball games, so in some respects it's one of the more important and underrated statistics out there. Finally, it's true that, likely due in some part to the fact that he gets on base more often than other catchers, Mauer's scored more runs than McCann and Posada from '06-'08 ('05-'07 for Posada to counter for last year's health), despite (a) being injured for a good portion of 2007 and limited to barely over 100 games, and (b) playing in a vastly less powerful offense (even than the National League Braves).

Whatever, let's just agree on two things and call it a day: First, there's no competing with Pujols. Year in, year out, absolute machine. Second, that the actually improving performance of Jorge Posada at the plate in these twilight years is totally surprising. I can no longer list him among the most overvalued players in the game, and I've been forced to respect his bat in a new way. He's still sort of a nightmare behind the plate, but he mostly makes up for it.

[Olympic Fan]

Some interesting points on this thread about the revelvance of various stats and the irrelevance of others.

OBP and OPS (and in historical terms, OPS-plus), while both flawed in certain ways, are probably the best measures of offensive success, while the old triple crown categories are the worst. This best proof of this assertion is to go to the end-of-year team stats and try to equate various stats with runs scored. By tradition for years the Baseball Encyclopedia ranked teams based on batting average -- which had only a very tenuous relationship to runs scored. If you want to do the research, you'll find that team OBP and OPS are FAR more accurate indicators of actual runs scored.

As for modern superstars, I'm dismayed by the casual dismissal of a couple of older players from the list of superstars.

For instance, why not Chipper Jones? I know that he's 37 years old and injury prone, but over the last three seasons he's the only player in baseball to post OPS better than 1.000 -- he's posted OPS of 1.005/1.029/1.044 -- which is very comparable to A-Roid (1.031/.914/1.067), Manny (1.058/.881/1.031) and Pujols (1.102/.997/1.114).

In fact, Chipper and Manny are exactly the same age -- and over the last three seasons, Chipper has been slightly more productive offensively and MUCH more productive defensively ... and he hasn't been suspended 50 games for using a banned substance.

Right now, Pujols is on a remarkable tear -- his OPB is .470 ... exactly what Chipper's OBP was last year (when he won the batting title with a .364 average). Among the top superstar candidates mentioned here, the best career OBP at the moment are Pujols (12th alltime), Ramirez (30th alltime), Jones (40th alltime), Rodriguez (105th alltime).

Two points in Chipper's favor -- unlike two of your three "superstars" he's never been linked to the use of a banned substance. And defensively, while never a gold glover, only Pujols is his clear defensive superior among the superstar list (Note: Back in A-Roid's shortshop days, he would have had an edge, but at third, his numbers aren't as good as Chipper's). Manny is the one who stands out on this list -- he's such a bad defender that to a small degree it negates some of his offensive value.

Here's a factoid to consider when judging Jones' superstar status -- in all of baseball history, he has the best raw OPS of any player who played the majority of his career at third base -- that includes Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Pie Traynor, Eddie Matthews, Brooks Robinson and the rest.

I'm not saying he's the best third baseman of all time -- or even the best offensive third baseman (Note: Schmidt's OPS plus -- which measures a players' OPS against the average OPS of his league -- of 147 is slightly better than Jones' 145 ... although as noted by Mal, a total that close might expose the flaw in the OPS. Schmidt has a better SLUG, while Chipper has a better OBP -- indeed, the best OBP of any career third baseman; BTW Matthews is close on OPS plus at 143, then there's a big dropoff to Brett at 135 -- guys like Traynor (106) and Brooks Robinson (104) aren;t even in the conversation).

I guess it all comes down to your definition of superstar. I would argue that a guy who has established himself as one of the greatest players in baseball history -- as both Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter (start comparing Jeter to Cal Ripken to get an idea of what a great shortstop he has been over the years) have done deserves consideration as a superstar over some young outfielder or catcher who is riding a two-month hot streak.

As for your original threesome of "superstars", I think Albert Pujols is the best offensive player in the game today and is a fine defensive first baseman. A-Roid is going to end up with some of the best offensive stats in history, even if he is a steroid abuser.

Manny has been a great offensive player for a long time -- and he certainly had an impact on the NL West race last year. But in terms of age and recent production, he has nothing on Chipper ... if you throw in defense, he loses ground ... aside from the fact that it's hard to be a superstar when you're serving a 50-game suspension for using a banned substance.