Starting Line Up 2009-10

[CDu]

So it's possible that no other particular lineup will be on the floor more than the three guard plus Kyle lineup, in which case I think my argument still holds true. But I really have no idea if that will be the case, so I suppose I'll have to concede that point.

I don't think ANY lineup will average more than 8-10 minutes per game. As noted, the 3-guard lineup can only be on the floor together for 15 minutes max. But that ignores the fact that the other two spots wouldn't likely be constant.

In fact, I'd expect Singler to get most (if not all) of his rest when the three guards are in the game. The reasoning being that I'd want Singler to be the third "wing" whenever there are only two guards. I would feel very uncomfortable if we had only two of Smith/Williams/Scheyer/Singler on teh floor, because that means we'd have three of our weakest (and/or most inexperienced) players out there together.

So I'd expect Singler to get nearly all of the minutes when there are only two guards, and thus only around 8-10 of the 15 minutes when there are three guards together. So that's the case, we're looking at the possibility that Singler would be playing the plurality of his minutes with a two-guard lineup (if one of the three potential two-guard combinations plays more than 8-10 minutes per game together). If that's the case, then probability would say that we'd be unlikely to see the 3-guard rotation start.

You don't necessarily have to concede though, as it is certainly possible that the most used fivesome could include three guards. However, I certainly don't think it's likely. And if it IS the most used lineup, I doubt it would be by very much.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I hope Ryan Kelly has a good summer with conditioning and strength training because it would be VERY beneficial to have him come in and give 10-15 minutes off the bench to help Singler. Kyle will be in a different role, probably chasing around smaller players of teams that impose the 3 guard lineup. Not saying he'll be winded, but it will help if Singler can have someone like Kelly come in and give quality minutes to make sure he is fresh. Someone like Kyle, especially this year with G gone, you don't want him to be huffing and puffing, or on the bench in foul trouble. The reason why I say Kelly rather than EWill or Nolan is because I do not think we should be using a 3 guard lineup much at all this year. That is dangerous with no depth. I think in our position, you have to have someone on the bench at all times, or at least most of the time.
Also, Coach K should not be afraid to use Miles and Mason at the same time this year, I would love it!

[RockyMtDevil]

I predict Singler logs more minutes played than anyone in the last 20 years, even more than Battier and JJ did their Sr. years...I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

[Bob Green]

I predict Singler logs more minutes played than anyone in the last 20 years, even more than Battier and JJ did their Sr. years...I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

I predict Jon Scheyer plays more minutes per game than Kyle Singler.

[Duke #33]

...I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

That would be an interesting idea, but it would probably only work in certain situations.

P.S. it's spelled Turkoglu

[SilkyJ]

I predict Jon Scheyer plays more minutes per game than Kyle Singler.

Have to agree with Bob, on this one. We have 3 guards and he's our best one, so he's got the basic math thing going for him. Not to mention our most heady player on both ends of the floor and likely leader of the team. I think Kyle will score more points though, but not by much.

[whereinthehellami]

Have to agree with Bob, on this one. We have 3 guards and he's our best one, so he's got the basic math thing going for him. Not to mention our most heady player on both ends of the floor and likely leader of the team. I think Kyle will score more points though, but not by much.

I don't know if you can say Scheyer is a more heady player than Singler. i think they are both heady players. One in the backcourt and one in the frontcourt. Singler lead the team in rebounding, blocked shots, and was second in steals (great for a frontcourt player). He probably lead in charges also, don't know where that stat can be found? Its great to have both of them on the team at the same time. It should be fun to watch next season.

[Greg_Newton]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

That is actually a very intruiging idea. I bet we will see K try this at some point, unless Nolan magically develops into a stellar pure PG over the summer. If Singler can improve his handle and quickness over the summer (and this is his main goal, so I'm sure he will), he could be quite effective in that role and could give us a very interesting dynamic.

[ACCBBallFan]

I recognize that coach K plays hs best 5 guys but it is not like that lineup can be out there 35 of the 40 minutes since there is no one to play any of the guard slots the other 5 minutes, before you even consider foul trouble or injuries.

This # of guards and # of forwards discussion gets a little cloudy when Kyle plays WG on Offense and PF on Defense while Lance plays PF on Offense and defends the WG/SF.

without getting into who plays 32 min vs who plays 28, the minutes being discussed could be allocated primaily with a two guard set:

PG - Nolan (25-30) Jon (10-15)
SG - Jon (20) Elliott (20)
WG/SF - Singler (25) Elliott (10) Kelly or Lance (5)
PF - Singler (5-10 in 3 guard set or with Lance on D or Kelly on O)
PF - Mason and Lance/Kelly share (30-35)
C- Zoubs (20) and Miles (20) or split 40 so other manner like 20/15 with Mason moving to 5 spot for 5 min during 3 guard set

Pretty hard to imagine Olek getting much more than a couple minutes from one of these other 9 at WG/SF or PF.

I put more weight into how can the lineup of Nolan-Jon-Elliott-Singler - pick your favorite 5th guy be it (Zoubs, Mason, Miles, Lance) improve practicing against

Curry and four forwards who cannot dribble as well as Kyle (Kelly and other 3 of Zoubs, Mason, Miles, Lance or Olek) unless the coaches suit up which means the forwards do not get the needed practice at their position.

I agee there is a danger of the guards wearing out in practice with only three of them and Curry to play combo guards.

So it is easier to practice the emergency situation where Kyle plays SG than the 3 guards and Kyle plus one simultaneously, if for no other reason than to give one of the 3 guards or Curry a breather (can Olek do that?) or because one or more has a minor injury he is nursing.

With Kyle and perhaps Kelly having such Dunleavy like flexibiloity it is again like having two different guys on the roster, and K has a lot of good options.

[ice-9]

This next season is going to be veeeery interesting from a coaching point of view. How far will Coach K deviate from what he usually does to accommodate for the peculiarities of this incoming team?

First, I am also of the viewpoint that we will play a two guard lineup most of the time. Sure, all three guards will be on the floor during a game, but it wil mostly at the end of games where ball handling is critical. For the majority of the time, we will be seeing two guards plus three big men. Now this is where it gets interesting...

Does Coach K opt to go for a zone defense? Because I think this is the perfect lineup for a traditional zone. All our players are tall and quick for their position: Scheyer, Smith/William, Singler/Thomas/Olek, Kelly/MP2, and Zoubek/MP1. They'll have the length to contest shots and the mobility to cover gaps quickly. My guess he'll go for it more than usual, but it won't be our main defensive identity.

I do think playing our usual aggressive, overplaying perimeter defense is going to be more difficult with a relative big man at the 3, but it can be done. It can be done because unlike last year, we will have two very tall defenders to block/alter shots in the post should an opponent penetrate with two of Kelly/MP2/Zoubek/MP1 playing at almost any given time. My guess this is the defensive scheme that Coach K will go with at first.

However, my personal belief is that a more effective defensive scheme is to play a sagging defense that encourages opponents to shoot (vs. dribble) but which will inhale rebounds like Nigel Dixon in an all you can eat buffet. In other words, an Izzo type defense. This works for several reasons:

- Our team as a whole will be slower but taller. We won't be able to stop penetration if we play too close, but we'll have the length to bother shots even as we sag back

- With three tall players on the floor at (almost) any given time, we should be able to grab every rebound

- We don't really have the personnel to run a fastbreak or capitalize on a turnover. How many times last season did we make a steal only to fail to convert on the other end? If we had a PG like Wall, it might be different, but our guards aren't particularly fantastic on the break

- It's probably in our best interest to keep games to a low scoring affair. That means forcing missed shots instead of generating turnovers and to play a half court offense

If we play the above (or a zone), I could see a player like Kelly contributing valuable minutes. This is a guy who can score in so many ways but whose defensive weaknesses will be minimized in a sagging, rebound focused defense.

[Devilsfan]

Singler could share mins. with R. Kelly while we're playing D-2 and post grad squads during Nov. and Dec. but once the real season starts I think he needs to be in there 38 - 40 mins. That could keep him well rested for the Jan. Feb. and hpoefully long Mar. run as he is that important and that much better than anyone else at his position.

[ACCBBallFan]

Since we all know that coach K does not really coach purely by position, perhaps the best way to predict lineups may be to break the 9 regulars into three groups:

Best 3 Shooters (2 of 3 almost all the time):

Scheyer (35), Singler (35), Kelly (10)

Best 3 On Ball Defenders (2 of 3 almost all the time):

Elliott (30) Nolan (30) Lance (20) or some other combination

Best 3 Big Men (1 of 3 almost all the time):

Zoubek (15), Mason (15) Miles (10) or some other combination

With the only caveat being at least one of Nolan/Jon has to be in game at all times to be the PG.

Kyle could be slotted in any of the 3 categories, maybe even top 3 in any of them, but shooting is what Duke lacks most. Similarly Jon is also a more than decent defender but shooting is the skill set where Jon is definitely top 3.

If you adhere to these principles, it is almost impossible to assemble a terrible combination, though some are better than others. It would also very unusual to find a better combination from the 9 key guys that would not fall within these guidelines.

Best combination would always include Singler and Scheyer and not likely that Kelly would be in top 5 but not a bad thing if he is.

Best combination would always include at least two ball handlers, whether that is Jon and Nolan or Jon and Elliott, maybe all three but then something else suffers.

I know some had proposed a lineup of Nolan-Jon-Elliott-Kyle-Lance which would be very good to shake things up a couple minutes with full court press, but then the 5 best defenders all wear out at same time. Why recruit bigs if their only purpose other than practice players with Curry and Olek is to sit on bench and block the views of the Crazies?

Even looking only at height, only guys shorter than Lance are Nolan, Elliott, Jon and Olek who won’t play much. It’s not like Lance is that much better a leaper or rebounder than either of the Plumlees or Kelly who are all a couple inches taller and weigh as much or more. So it implies all three of their defense is so much worse, and whatever in the paint Offense they bring is no better than Lance.

Surely one will surface, or Zoubek except vs. guys like Monroe from G-town or Sims from Michigan who are too mobile with good range for Z but probably not true for at least one of the Plumlees, or even Olek who has about 20 pounds and hops on Lance, and is only an inch shorter, assuming he learned something about court awareness this past year to supplement his dunking skills.

So with respect to starters and key end of game situations, I think everybody agrees Jon and Kyle are two of the five, at least one of Nolan/Elliott is a third member just for two guards/ball handlers except in emergency when Kyle would have to be SG.

Not too bad a lineup regardless of whether fourth is Lance if he improves on FT’s or the other of Elliott (ditto on FT improvement needed)/Nolan, but if both of them, that means None of the Plumlees or Zoubek can man the post better than Lance, and Duke is in trouble getting past first round of NCAAs.

On the other hand, not a bad problem to have if

Two Plumlees and Singler-Scheyer and (Nolan/Elliott) or

Z-Plumlee-Kyle-Jon-(Nolan/Elliott) is best combo

Since that means at least one of the Plumlees is playing better than Lance who is a known steady entity, just not a center.

A slight variation off that that goes by position would be:

Guards (Min 2 of 3, Max 3 of 3)

Jon(35), Nolan (30), Elliott (30)

Biggest Guys (Min 2 of 4, Max 3 of 4)
Kyle (35), Zoubek (15), Mason (15), Miles (10) or some other combination of splitting the non Singler minutes

Duke could get by with just these seven and having Lance as defender alternate (assigned to SF, PF or even SG) and Kelly as shooter alternate (WF/SF)

With the way coach K does not really go by position, better to think of Lance as the guy who comes into game when Nolan/Elliott take a rest along with other substitutions most likely or moving somebody around.

Similarly Kelly is either a zone buster along with Kyle and Jon or comes in when one of them needs a breather, with other substitutions most likely or moving somebody around.

Nolan – PG
Jon – PG/SG
Elliott – SG/WG
Kyle – WF/PF
Mason – PF/C
Miles – PF/C
Zoubs - C

Tweeners/Specialists (1 of 3 either Lance for Defense or Kelly for Offense when 2 guards, none of 3 when 3 guards, none of 3 when 3 Bigs, and never all three at same time since Olek won’t play much among other reasons):

Lance (20), Kelly (15) with cameo appearances by Olek

If you were to group the Duke roster by Height/Weight, Lance is the fourth smallest under either method of summing height plus weight or rank ordering Height and rank ordering Weight separately and then summing the two rankings.

Zoubek
Miles
Mason

Kyle
Olek (probably won’t play much)
Kelly

Lance
Jon
Elliott
Nolan

Or

Zoubek
Olek (probably won’t play much)
Miles

Kyle
Mason
Kelly

Lance
Jon
Elliott
Nolan

Blue-White matchups

PG – Smith/Curry
SG – Williams/Scheyer
WF – Kelly (Czyz)/ Thomas
PF – Singler / Mason Plumlee
C –Zoubek (Czyz)/Miles Plumlee

[SilkyJ]

^ interesting breakdown and way of looking at things.

I would definitely think that the group "Best ballhandlers" also needs to have some consideration as we will need probably 2-3 on the floor at any time.

That group would undoubtedly be Nolan, Jon, Kyle, and I think elliot deserves to be there, though I'm not totally sure. It will be interesting to see how much PG elliot plays next year, I'm not expecting much, but the staff did recruit him to play SG and some PG so we'll see...I just dont remember him being that great of a handler.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

let's pray duke has a walk-on thats is a great b-ball player lol Guard or Forward lol

[ACCBBallFan]

SilkyJ - I think that takes care of iteself with only three combo guards eligible, at least two will always be in the game @ PG/SG.

Even if all three averages 30 minutes, with 80 by default at PG/SG and only 10 (perhaps 15 if Scheyer plays 35 instead of 30) with Elliott at WG, whether as a starter or reserve who cares, and 25 (more than half the time) without a 3-guard lineup.

PG - Nolan (30) Jon (10)
SG - Jon (20-25) Elliott (15-20)
WG - Elliott (10-15)

The other 25-30 minutes not played by Elliott are hard to classify as a position since Singler plays SF on Offense and PF on Defense while Lance is mirror image WF on Defense and an undersized PF on Offense.

So the other 25-30 on Defense are probably Lance for about 20 and Kelly/Olek for 5-10.

Lance's 20 tend to happen during Nolan's 10 minutes of rest and also during Elliott's 10 minutes of rest since as you say one of them is in the game with Jon Scheyer for ball handling for the 10 minutes the other rests.

During Jon's 5-10 minutes of rest both Nolan and Elliott are in the game.

Singler also plays 30- 35 minutes and the other 45-50 are shared by Zoubek and the two Plumlees, unless Kelly/Olek can compete for some of those PF minutes.

A concern besides the obvious if a combo guard is injured or in foul trouble, would be that two of the three best defenders Elliott and Lance struggle to make 50% FTs and may lose their stall ball minutes to a Plumlee or Kelly.

[m g]

it seems like one of the bigs (the plumlees, zoubek, kelly, possibly thomas depending on how much he's needed defensively) will end up losing out in a big way in PT. a few past teams (02-03 if i remember right) have split a chunk of time between a few underdeveloped big men, but hopefully some players on the 09-10 team will step up and force their less productive players out of minutes.

who do you think steps up, and who do you think will ride the pine?

k's best coaching jobs have come when he plays a short bench, and williams and smith will both benefit tremendously from the extra playing time they'll get on a 3-guard team. this team has a bunch of great defenders and hustle players, and for the first time in awhile, it's balanced. the real question will be getting quality minutes out of lineups that always feature 4 or 5 scoring threats. i really think kelly is the key. if he can be an effective 3, this team will find a satisfactory 5 in one of the plumlees, zoubek, or thomas (in which case singler might defend the 5, etc.)

my guess is that kelly will often end up taking some of thomas and zoubek's minutes (remember, thomas will generally guard the 3 unless he's playing with the 3-guard lineup) simply because he's a threat to score. zoubek and thomas never score, and the main problem on last year's team was that k was forced to use 2 of mcclure, thomas, and zoubek at the same time, leaving only 3 credible scoring htreats. singler and probably both plumlees can handle most college 5's, and given that kelly is 6'10, he can compensate for his speed disadvantage.

kelly did not look great in all of the AS games, but one of the more insightful comments i read about his game at the Nike and McD's games was that he looked uncomfortable in the unstructured showboating style of play. he held himself on the boards against more athletic players (he got 7 and 10 rebounds in those games without playing huge minutes as i recall), and he clearly has shooting ability that will pay off in a structured offense like the one at duke. especially if he is playing with a lineup featuring other proven scorers (and he should always be able to have 3 of the williams/scheyer/singler/smith group on the floor with him), he will be a killer spot up threat, pick and pop guy, and add valuable size as a rebounder.

kelly is not a fully developed prospect, but he should at least be able to handle the ball well enough to play the 3 when other versatile bigs (plumlees, singler) are on the floor to help compensate for his ballhandling. regardless of his athleticism, speed, or size for a PF, he has a definite matchup advantage over most college 3's. thomas, singler, or williams would be a better option on some guys, but kelly's ability to displace a non-factor on offense will overcome that. i think (or maybe just hope) that he will end up getting a lot of court time at the 3 with singler and the plumlees.

things may not pan out this year, but each of the past 3 years, duke has been severely limited by the potential lineups it can put on. sometimes it was post defense, sometimes it was quickness, last year it was post offense, and it was ALWAYS that we were prone to matchup problems. none of those problems exist for this team. we have offensively capable players at every size, versatility on both ends of the floor, and a size advantage that will be exploited in ways that duke fans have forgotten are possible.

i like to think that this assessment honestly takes into account the weaknesses in our players' game (particularly kelly, who we can't even fully evaluate for awhile). i would describe the past three years as projects or challenges for duke and K. we were getting so much out of teams with such basic flaws. this year could be different because it's so much less of challenge and so much more an opportunity. i just feel bad for whichever of those post guys ends up riding the pine.

my hope is that zoubek becomes more of a matchup specialist (like against texas's big dude) and that thomas finds his way into the lineup alongside four offensive threats because of his D and hustle. worst case scenario is that neither of the plumlees or kelly develops into an offensive threat. if that happens, we will be stuck with the exact same scoring problem we had last year. one of them has got to flirt with 9-10 ppg, or at least 15 points per 40 minutes. that's the biggest question mark that the season will turn on, and i think kelly is the guy to do it

[COYS]

it seems like one of the bigs (the plumlees, zoubek, kelly, possibly thomas depending on how much he's needed defensively) will end up losing out in a big way in PT. a few past teams (02-03 if i remember right) have split a chunk of time between a few underdeveloped big men, but hopefully some players on the 09-10 team will step up and force their less productive players out of minutes.

who do you think steps up, and who do you think will ride the pine?

k's best coaching jobs have come when he plays a short bench, and williams and smith will both benefit tremendously from the extra playing time they'll get on a 3-guard team. this team has a bunch of great defenders and hustle players, and for the first time in awhile, it's balanced. the real question will be getting quality minutes out of lineups that always feature 4 or 5 scoring threats. i really think kelly is the key. if he can be an effective 3, this team will find a satisfactory 5 in one of the plumlees, zoubek, or thomas (in which case singler might defend the 5, etc.)

my guess is that kelly will often end up taking some of thomas and zoubek's minutes (remember, thomas will generally guard the 3 unless he's playing with the 3-guard lineup) simply because he's a threat to score. zoubek and thomas never score, and the main problem on last year's team was that k was forced to use 2 of mcclure, thomas, and zoubek at the same time, leaving only 3 credible scoring htreats. singler and probably both plumlees can handle most college 5's, and given that kelly is 6'10, he can compensate for his speed disadvantage.

kelly did not look great in all of the AS games, but one of the more insightful comments i read about his game at the Nike and McD's games was that he looked uncomfortable in the unstructured showboating style of play. he held himself on the boards against more athletic players (he got 7 and 10 rebounds in those games without playing huge minutes as i recall), and he clearly has shooting ability that will pay off in a structured offense like the one at duke. especially if he is playing with a lineup featuring other proven scorers (and he should always be able to have 3 of the williams/scheyer/singler/smith group on the floor with him), he will be a killer spot up threat, pick and pop guy, and add valuable size as a rebounder.

kelly is not a fully developed prospect, but he should at least be able to handle the ball well enough to play the 3 when other versatile bigs (plumlees, singler) are on the floor to help compensate for his ballhandling. regardless of his athleticism, speed, or size for a PF, he has a definite matchup advantage over most college 3's. thomas, singler, or williams would be a better option on some guys, but kelly's ability to displace a non-factor on offense will overcome that. i think (or maybe just hope) that he will end up getting a lot of court time at the 3 with singler and the plumlees.

things may not pan out this year, but each of the past 3 years, duke has been severely limited by the potential lineups it can put on. sometimes it was post defense, sometimes it was quickness, last year it was post offense, and it was ALWAYS that we were prone to matchup problems. none of those problems exist for this team. we have offensively capable players at every size, versatility on both ends of the floor, and a size advantage that will be exploited in ways that duke fans have forgotten are possible.

i like to think that this assessment honestly takes into account the weaknesses in our players' game (particularly kelly, who we can't even fully evaluate for awhile). i would describe the past three years as projects or challenges for duke and K. we were getting so much out of teams with such basic flaws. this year could be different because it's so much less of challenge and so much more an opportunity. i just feel bad for whichever of those post guys ends up riding the pine.

my hope is that zoubek becomes more of a matchup specialist (like against texas's big dude) and that thomas finds his way into the lineup alongside four offensive threats because of his D and hustle. worst case scenario is that neither of the plumlees or kelly develops into an offensive threat. if that happens, we will be stuck with the exact same scoring problem we had last year. one of them has got to flirt with 9-10 ppg, or at least 15 points per 40 minutes. that's the biggest question mark that the season will turn on, and i think kelly is the guy to do it

I'm actually a little surprised that more people haven't talked about Kelly as a potentially significant contributor to next year's team and am glad you made this post. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are about Kelly's ability to adjust to the college game and, in particular, Duke's defense quickly enough to be one of the top seven players on next year's team. However, you make a good point that it is very likely that he will have a number of chances to prove himself simply because he can handle the ball and is a good shooter and free throw shooter. In the event that one of our three guards is in foul trouble or has fouled out, our end of game lineup would consist of two of the guards Scheyer, Elliot, and Nolan plus Singler, and two bigs. Zoubek hit free throws well last year in a very few opportunities, however beyond that our big guys are not good free throw shooters. Neither Lance nor Zoubek handle the ball, either, obviously. If Kelly proves he is able to take care of the ball and hit free throws, he just might prove to be invaluable when we need as many ball handlers and free throw shooters on the court as possible. I would love to see Kelly and Mason step up and push our veterans. I would imagine that the offensive ceilings for both freshman are probably higher than with any of the other bigs currently on the roster (Singler excluded, of course). The question is simply how long it will take them to develop, because we will need both of them in a big way next year.

[dukelifer]

I'm actually a little surprised that more people haven't talked about Kelly as a potentially significant contributor to next year's team and am glad you made this post. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are about Kelly's ability to adjust to the college game and, in particular, Duke's defense quickly enough to be one of the top seven players on next year's team. However, you make a good point that it is very likely that he will have a number of chances to prove himself simply because he can handle the ball and is a good shooter and free throw shooter. In the event that one of our three guards is in foul trouble or has fouled out, our end of game lineup would consist of two of the guards Scheyer, Elliot, and Nolan plus Singler, and two bigs. Zoubek hit free throws well last year in a very few opportunities, however beyond that our big guys are not good free throw shooters. Neither Lance nor Zoubek handle the ball, either, obviously. If Kelly proves he is able to take care of the ball and hit free throws, he just might prove to be invaluable when we need as many ball handlers and free throw shooters on the court as possible. I would love to see Kelly and Mason step up and push our veterans. I would imagine that the offensive ceilings for both freshman are probably higher than with any of the other bigs currently on the roster (Singler excluded, of course). The question is simply how long it will take them to develop, because we will need both of them in a big way next year.

I am expecting that Kelly has a high bball IQ and is coming in with an advanced skill set. He is not as strong as he will be in two years and that will be his biggest problem next year- dealing with much stronger players. But in the offense, he will get shots and his ability to hit threes will make him a weapon. But he will banged a bit and will probably struggle more against very athletic teams until he figures out what he can and cannot do in the college game. But Kelly has excellent basic skills and that will go a long way toward having a successful freshman season.

[Kedsy]

I am expecting that Kelly has a high bball IQ and is coming in with an advanced skill set. He is not as strong as he will be in two years and that will be his biggest problem next year- dealing with much stronger players. But in the offense, he will get shots and his ability to hit threes will make him a weapon. But he will banged a bit and will probably struggle more against very athletic teams until he figures out what he can and cannot do in the college game. But Kelly has excellent basic skills and that will go a long way toward having a successful freshman season.

My guess is Kelly will go as far as his defense allows. We've seen time and again players who appear to be offensively gifted being glued to the Duke bench because of apparent defensive liabilities.

If Kelly can come in and guard either a small, quick forward or a big, strong one, then he'll probably get plenty of minutes. If he can't do either, then I'm not sure how far his offensive skillset alone will take him.

I've only seen him in high school all-star games and you can't tell defense from that, so the way I look at it we'll have to sit back and wait until the Fall to see whether his defensive abilities will allow him time on the court.

Here's hoping...

[ACCBBallFan]

it seems like one of the bigs (the plumlees, zoubek, kelly, possibly thomas depending on how much he's needed defensively) will end up losing out in a big way in PT. ...

williams and smith will both benefit tremendously from the extra playing time they'll get on a 3-guard team. this team has a bunch of great defenders and hustle players, and for the first time in awhile, it's balanced. the real question will be getting quality minutes out of lineups that always feature 4 or 5 scoring threats. i really think kelly is the key. if he can be an effective 3, this team will find a satisfactory 5 in one of the plumlees, zoubek, or thomas (in which case singler might defend the 5, etc.)

I look at your first paragraph the opposite way. Lance is not a scorer, particularly when forced to play center. So I see it as the two Plumlees and Zoubek will compete for the 40 minutes at center slot, not lose minutes that none except Zoubek ever had.

Lance will get his 15-20 minutes, just hopefully not as an imitation center, but more as a McClure clone.

In your second paragraph, it depends on what you mean by 3-guard team. The way I see it is because there are only 3 combo guards eligible to play (with Curry available as 4th guard only to practice but not play), even if they all play 30 minutes, that ends up being 80 minutes across the PG/SG slots and a maximum of 15 if Scheyer plays 35 in a 3-guard set (less than half the time).

I do agree that Nolan/Elliott will benefit by each playing 30 minutes and not having to look over the shoulder if they make a mistake to see Greg or G or Marty or Dave immediately subbing in for them.

I agree Kelly could be a key third outside threat to complement Jon and Kyle but see him getting his 5-10 minutes as a sub for each of them 5 minutes each. If his defense is ahead of the typical freshman big, maybe all 3 at once, but that is pretty optimistic in his first season and only time will tell.

Nolan (30), Jon (35) and Elliott (30) total about 95 minutes.

Singler 35 sums to 130 and leaves 70 of 200 for the other 6 guys.

My guess is Zoubek, and the Plumlees share 40 in post to sum to 170,

and the other 30 go to Lance (15-20) and Kelly (10-15) with crumbs to Olek.

Singler and Scheyer may even play the entire 40 vs. top ACC and in NCAAs, or when someone is not available or not playing adequately.

The other meaning of 3-guard as in formation is difficult to practice with only Seth Curry and 4 forwards to provide daily competition. It' actually easier to practice the emergency Kyle as SG set.

But when 3 guards are in for best 5, Kyle should also be in making it Nolan-Jon-Elliott-Kyle- a Plumlee or Z, even harder to assemble a lineup of Curry-Kelly-Lance-Plumlee-Zoubek/Plumlee (or Olek in one spot).

Lance as the 5th guy is just asking for failure vs. better competition, but Lance as a sub along with other moves to rest Nolan/Elliott 10 minutes each works pretty well, just switching from 3 guard set to 2 guard set.

So Nolan and Elliott snag some of G's and Greg's and Marty's minutes by default, and the balance of G's and McClure's minutes get spread to the two frosh and Miles.

If you prefer McClure's minutes/role goes to Lance and Lance's old minutes/role goes to one of the frosh or Miles.

It is critical that Lance and Elliott improve their FT Accuracy or their end of games minutes will suffer.