Starting Line Up 2009-10

[MulletMan]

No I didn't, I said I could easily see Jon starting and even if he's 6th man he'd still be getting 28/30+ minutes. I'm also looking at this from more of a defensive perspective, with Nolan and Elliot that would give Duke a very tough defensive backcourt with length and lateral quickness. If Duke wants to go deep in March they need athleticism and it's not like they'd be sacrificing experience for athleticism because both Nolan and Elliot now have experience.

If you think that Jon Scheyer is not an excellent backcourt defender, then I think you need to watch him play some more.

[Greg_Newton]

No I didn't, I said I could easily see Jon starting and even if he's 6th man he'd still be getting 28/30+ minutes. I'm also looking at this from more of a defensive perspective, with Nolan and Elliot that would give Duke a very tough defensive backcourt with length and lateral quickness. If Duke wants to go deep in March they need athleticism and it's not like they'd be sacrificing experience for athleticism because both Nolan and Elliot now have experience.

It's easy to forget how good Jon is because his game isn't as "sexy" as our other athletic guards... but let's also not forget that he was often our best player this year, and will be one of the best players in the ACC next year. He doesn't have a great vertical and won't be making many summer league highlight reels, but when the ball goes up next year, you'll want him on the floor.

It would make me so happy if Jon were to spend all summer doing lateral quickness drills and surprised everyone by being a Nick Calathes-type PG and potential NBA prospect next year. He clearly has the skills, and if he could just work on his quickness and develop that type of attacking mindset over the summer it would be so great. Either way, he'll be really fun to watch as a senior.

[mo.st.dukie]

Yeah, he's pretty good but he's not that lock down defender and not on the level of Elliot. He lacks some of the physical tools that Elliot has and players have to be quick in todays game. I'm not saying Jon's a bad player because he's not, he's a very talented player and valuable to the team but we need speed, length and athleticism if we want to get back to the Final Four. I think whenever people see that a player isn't a starter they automatically think that the player isn't good, that's not the case at all but Duke has other players that may be able to give them something more or something different.

[Wander]

If you think that Jon Scheyer is not an excellent backcourt defender, then I think you need to watch him play some more.

He's pretty good defensively, underrated by the average basketball fan, and, yes, of course will be starting as he's our second best player. But his defense has been overrated here. It's good but not excellent. Somewhere between where the average college basketball fan thinks it is and where the average DBR poster thinks it is.

[Wander]

Yeah, he's pretty good but he's not that lock down defender and not on the level of Elliot. He lacks some of the physical tools that Elliot has and players have to be quick in todays game. I'm not saying Jon's a bad player because he's not, he's a very talented player and valuable to the team but we need speed, length and athleticism if we want to get back to the Final Four.

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be. Jon's our second best player. He's starting every single game next year, period.

[Wander]

As for the rest of the starting lineup, as successful as the Scheyer and Elliot starting backcourt experiment was late last season, I think in order to be the best team we can be, we need Nolan to be the starting point guard. And if Mason Plumlee doesn't assert himself as the obvious choice for starting center, preferably from the first day in practice, we're in for more of the same in regards to that position. I guess Lance can be the 5th starter as a glue guy, and I think he'll benefit from getting to be a forward most of the time instead of a center. And I want the 2009 ACC POY as many minutes as possible in meaningful games. 35+.

[Reddevil]

play zoubs at the end of games if he hasn't fouled out he suprisingly was 80% from the line last year...

More than any other year I can recall, this season will require a situational roster. The starting five may not equate to the five on the floor in the last 4-5 minutes, or to the five on the floor during the majority of the game. I can imagine having Nolan and Elliot starting and really pressuring the perimeter and setting the defensive tone. Creativity by the coaching staff may result in some point forward by Kyle along with one guard to help bring up the ball while two guards get a breather. K has always broken the game down into segments, and that will be a big key this coming season. The development of Lance, Z, and Miles, along with the readiness of the freshmen will be important. If MP II is able to contribute right away, that would be a huge positive. EW's free throw shooting will influence that last segment's personnel as much as anything.

[FireOgilvie]

Yeah, he's pretty good but he's not that lock down defender and not on the level of Elliot. He lacks some of the physical tools that Elliot has and players have to be quick in todays game. I'm not saying Jon's a bad player because he's not, he's a very talented player and valuable to the team but we need speed, length and athleticism if we want to get back to the Final Four.

I would love it if Elliot improved enough for this to be the case, but I don't see it happening. If you max out everyone's potential, then you're probably right... Duke has a higher ceiling with Elliot. But, barring huge improvements in every category, there's no way Elliot is better than Scheyer. Scheyer was just as good as Henderson at the end of the year; he was also ACC Tournament MVP.

[mo.st.dukie]

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be. Jon's our second best player. He's starting every single game next year, period.

Yeah, if you're operating under the assumption that other players aren't going to get better. Elliot has NBA-like athleticism so if he improves some of his skills then maybe he surpasses Jon similar to how Nolan surpassed Greg when everyone said last offseason that Greg would start every single game period. And I mentioned in my first post that Jon will start if both Elliot and Nolan don't improve their ballhandling and shooting. I'm just throwing my opinion out there.

[Matches]

My guess:

Scheyer
Smith
EWill
Singler
Plumlee II

Could be Thomas in that fifth spot though.

[InSpades]

Jon not starting is somewhat unfathomable. Even if Elliot and Nolan both improve immeasurably, they'd just force K to start 3 guards. If 2 big men (other than Kyle) also end up playing well enough that Duke is better off with Scheyer coming off the bench then I will eat my shorts.

I really think whether K starts 2 or 3 guards is irrelevant. All 3 of them will get around 30+ minutes in games that matter. The only player who will play more than them is Kyle. If 1 of them comes off the bench... it doesn't really matter. We will probably see anywhere from 5-20 minutes of 3 guard lineup per game. Probably less at the start of the year and more in the 2nd half.

[CDu]

I have heard (here on DBR) that Jordan redshirted last year and plans to return. I believe walk-ons get some recognition at the banquet their last year, yet there was nothing done for him at this year's banquet. My conclution is that he'll be back, but I'm not an insider so it's all heresay.

I thought that someone who went to the banquet stated that Davidson was, in fact, honored this year, and that Coach K noted that Davidson's status for next year is up in the air. He redshirted this year to be available if absolutely necessary, but that he wasn't a definite to come back.

I don't think that's been updated since, but the statement by Coach K was made prior to landing Curry.

[VaDukie]

Prediction: The "All 3 guards will start" vs. "We can only start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" argument will reach levels not seen since the Scheyer v. Henderson battle of Summer 07. Ah, good times...

[BlueinBlo]

Prediction: The "All 3 guards will start" vs. "We can only start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" argument will reach levels not seen since the Scheyer v. Henderson battle of Summer 07. Ah, good times...

Unless Nolan Smith turns into Henderson number 2, I don't see them going with 3 guards. Smith ended the year on the bench and I expect him to start this year on the bench. The line up would be entirely too small and weak imo.

[BlueintheFace]

Prediction: The "All 3 guards will start" vs. "We can only start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" argument will reach levels not seen since the Scheyer v. Henderson battle of Summer 07. Ah, good times...

I disagree. The ONLY argument for "All 3 guards start" is that you want all your best players starting. The arguments for the other side are NUMEROUS and fairly convincing. My perception is that the "All 3 guards start" crowd is a distinct minority on this board and they break down in to two groups:

1) All 3 guards start, but we end up playing Singler and/or Kelly at the SF position more than the guards.

- This position is not really distinguishable from the "Start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" group. There is certainly a meeting of the minds with the two groups on how minutes are distributed here. The only difference is how this first faction sees K starting the game off (those first 5 minutes).

2) All 3 guards will start and be on the court together as much as humanly possible... ~35+ minutes/game.

- This faction of "All 3 guards start" believers have it in their head that 4 of our players (Jon, Nolan, E-will, and Kyle) will play ~70% of this team's minutes. They believe that the other 30% will go to the remaining 6 PFs/Centers on the team. My belief is that this second faction is pretty small and will be shouted down before the season starts.

[SilkyJ]

I disagree. The ONLY argument for "All 3 guards start" is that you want all your best players starting. The arguments for the other side are NUMEROUS and fairly convincing. My perception is that the "All 3 guards start" crowd is a distinct minority on this board and they break down in to two groups:

1) All 3 guards start, but we end up playing Singler and/or Kelly at the SF position more than the guards.

- This position is not really distinguishable from the "Start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" group. There is certainly a meeting of the minds with the two groups on how minutes are distributed here. The only difference is how this first faction sees K starting the game off (those first 5 minutes).

2) All 3 guards will start and be on the court together as much as humanly possible... ~35+ minutes/game.

- This faction of "All 3 guards start" believers have it in their head that 4 of our players (Jon, Nolan, E-will, and Kyle) will play ~70% of this team's minutes. They believe that the other 30% will go to the remaining 6 PFs/Centers on the team. My belief is that this second faction is pretty small and will be shouted down before the season starts.

Sounds roughly fair, but I think the discussion about who starts (or more importantly: who plays a lot) shouldn't center around our backcourt, but our frontcourt. THAT's where the questions are. Jon, Nolan, and EWill will all play 25+mpg b/c they have to. And we obviously know that Kyle is going to get his as well. What we don't know is what 2-4 other players will play significant minutes, and that's where the debate should be...there are just soooo many unknowns and questions there.

1) Will lance and zoubs develop much more than they already have? 2) How much of a jump will MP1 make? 3) how good are the freshman?

Until we know those answers, we really don't know our rotation, and we won't know those answers until November. Yes we can speculate all day, and we will b/c some its fun, but just everyone remember before you go out on a limb that dkbaseball claimed in the summer of 2008 "this time next I fear our biggest worry with Olek will be him jumping to the pros"

how'd that one work out dk?

[miramar]

Yes we can speculate all day, and we will b/c some its fun, but just everyone remember before you go out on a limb that dkbaseball claimed in the summer of 2008 "this time next I fear our biggest worry with Olek will be him jumping to the pros"

how'd that one work out dk?

While many of us may often appear clueless, in our collective defense we should remember that even the professionals make big mistakes. I remember a few months back that DBR had a link to an article that indicated that NBA scouts had given up on Gerald Henderson entirely. How did that work out, pro scouts?

Come to think of it, I wish they hadn't corrected their mistake...

[Atldukie79]

K has had a tendency to play smaller and quicker when possible. I am quite sure that our 3 guards will see many minutes. I really don't think it matters whether all 3 start or not regarding minutes (maybe it matters for ego). Except for the issue of injury...and foul trouble (both real), we will be quite fine with "just" 3 guards. Nolan and Williams remind me of Amaker and Dawkins in body type. I believe they can run all day and log many minutes. Scheyer has proven that he can play 35+ minutes if necessary.

I think the critical issues are these:

1) Can we match up with quick, athletic teams when Singler/Kelly have to cover smaller, quicker guys?
2) Will we have 4 3 point shooters on the court very often so that we can spread it out? (Scheyer and Singler have proven 3 point games. Williams and Nolan need to show that they can hit it. Maybe Kelly can. Who else?)
3) Will any of our low post players be considered a threat to score...dare I ask that they command a double team? (No proof of this yet...I think Mason can be that guy eventually)
4) Who can create their own shot when the clock winds down? "G" was the man for that. Williams, Nolan and Singler are candidates...

Frankly, I think this will be a fun year, and there is much upside, though balanced against a thin margin for error.

[InSpades]

Unless Nolan Smith turns into Henderson number 2, I don't see them going with 3 guards. Smith ended the year on the bench and I expect him to start this year on the bench. The line up would be entirely too small and weak imo.

Smith ended the year playing better than Elliot Williams. Post-concussion they played about the same # of minutes and Nolan was much more effective offensively.

Too small and weak? So you'd rather we put a team of tall bodybuilders on the court? I think it's pretty unanimously agreed that Duke's best lineup would be 3 guards, Kyle and a big. If Nolan doesn't start it's because they need him to play when Jon or Elliot sit.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Jon not starting is somewhat unfathomable. Even if Elliot and Nolan both improve immeasurably, they'd just force K to start 3 guards. If 2 big men (other than Kyle) also end up playing well enough that Duke is better off with Scheyer coming off the bench then I will eat my shorts.

One year ago, did you really think that Paulus would not be starting in 2008-09?