Zoubek and Thomas are key to Duke winning the ACC and getting past the sweet 16. They need to take their games to the next level for next year. They need to be more consistent while expanding their games on the offensive and defensive ends. That is a tall task and might be asking for too much.
The half empty beer drinker inside me sees next year playing out exactly as it it written on paper. Duke has enough talent to beat anyone but will also struggle mightily against any and all athletic teams. In other words I don't think Duke has the athletiscm to win the ACC and get past the sweet 16 for next year.
I'm looking forward to watching Singler in his final year though. The kid is special. I wish he had a little more pieces to work with as he is a national championship caliber talent/catalyst.
C:Zoubs
PF:Singler
SF:Jon
SG:Email
PG:Nolan
6th man: Lance
7th man: Mason
8th man:Ryan Kelly
9th man: Miles
We could also
C:Lance
PF:Singler
SF:Jon
SG:Email
PG:Nolan
6th man: Zoubs
7th man: Mason
8th man:Ryan Kelly
9th man: Miles
I have heard (here on DBR) that Jordan redshirted last year and plans to return. I believe walk-ons get some recognition at the banquet their last year, yet there was nothing done for him at this year's banquet. My conclution is that he'll be back, but I'm not an insider so it's all heresay.
The Gordog
I see many of you writing that K will play his best five players, regardless of position, and I tend to agree with that as that is what he typically does. If that is the case, Duke's best five would most certainly have to include all three guards. Singler will see a lot of time at the 3 out of necessity, but Duke's best line-up and the one that plays the most is likely to be:
G - Scheyer
G - Smith
G - Williams
F - Singler
C - TBA (whichever one asserts themselves and elevates their game, possibly MP2)
I like that word: "heresay." A combination of "heresy" and "hearsay." Could have a lot of applicability on this Board.
WRT next year's starting line-up, I believe that four positions are set:
Scheyer
Singler
Nolan
EWill
The starting Center could be any of four people: Zoubs, LT, MP1, or MP2. Zoubek is very effective against certain teams, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him start, but the best news (see below) would be if one of the freshmen forces his way into the starting lineup.
At the three-minute mark (this year's substitution pattern), two of the big men will come off the bench, and one of the three guards and the starting C will sit. [FWIW, does anyone really think that Kyle is going to get much in-game rest next year? His only potential sub is Lance Thomas, unless Ryan Kelly is physically more mature than I believe or Czyz makes a giant step forward in skills and court sense.]
Predicting playing time for freshmen 6-9 or over is tough. The ones who have earned substantial minutes as freshmen under K have typically gone on to earn honors as upperclassmen: Ferry, Laettner, Parks, Brand, Boozer, and Shelden Williams. Shav was sixth in minutes in 2004 and probably would have made a big splash had he stayed four years. Similarly for McRoberts in 2006, who started nearly every game as a freshman. Burgess was a bit of a bust, here and at Utah, but was only ninth in minutes played as a freshman. That said, I guess our best hope for the long term is that MP2 and Ryan Kelly earn a lot of playing time next year.
sagegrouse
Last edited by sagegrouse; 05-20-2009 at 10:23 AM. Reason: Annoying typos
I agree with your 4 that are set. The other spot will come down to who does what over the summer and in practice. I just don't agree with the people who are saying what the starting lineup will be based on practice matchups. As a coach you want your 5 on the floor that gives you the best chance to win. You find a way to work around it in practice. The way the game is being played now and what K has done in the past makes me seriously doubt him starting Singler at the 3. Neither freshman looks ready to step in and start and why would we start a 4 and a 5 that are no offensive threat?
This is relatively easy guys.
Starters:
LT
Plumlee II
Singler
Jon
Nolan
First man off the bench: E-Will
Mark it down.
(Oh wait... you mean there will be practices and what-not before this is determined? OK, well, mark it down in pencil.)
Here's my thinking... You can't start all three guards. There's no way. In my opinion the only absolute locks are Jon and Kyle. I think you could switch E-Will and Nolan depending on how they play leading up to the start of the season. I think that Lance will get the nod to start simply becuase he can guard smaller quicker players fairly well, and the biggest defensive concern for our (now amazingly) large team will be its ability to play K's defense with so much size and so much less foot speed on the floor. LT was getting it on D at the end of last season, and if he becomes just a bit better offensively in this last year, he will see major minutes. I may be giving PlumII too much credit, but I think he could start.
I just don't see all three guards starting together. Maybe coming out in the second half, and possibly playing some good minutes together, but no way all three of those guys average 37 minutes per game. Right? I'm being too hopeful, huh?
Actually, I should tell you the same thing. It appears that nobody knows if Jordan will be back.
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...ordan+davidson
Additionally, it appears that he is having surgery this summer.
But please, enlighten us... share your inside information.
AND, even if Jordan is coming back, you have one team with Jon, Nolan, and E-Will vs another with Seth, Jordan, and ?? Ryan??... I'm just not sure that this is ideal, for a number of reasons. One of which is because then you have Singler and Zou vs LT and only ONE of the Plumlee's.
Don't forget the old K motto. You practice like you play.
Why would all three starting mean they'd have to play 37 minutes a game? Although 35 mpg wouldn't shock me at all. Kyle's going to get around that, too, but that doesn't mean the four big minute guys can't start off the game.
When you say we have so much less footspeed, do you mean defensive quickness? Because most of our big men seem to get up and down the floor pretty well (probably all but Z), so I don't think speed is really the issue. Quick feet on defense, I would agree is a potential problem and will hopefully be where Lance makes his mark, in the few moments when we rest the guards.
Incidentally, this has nothing to do with your post, but count me among those who don't think practice matchups will dictate who starts the games.
You know, I bet that there are at least 10-15 point guards in the student body that were even their high or prep school's basketball team captain. I suspect that a couple of them would love to fill a roster spot for a year or even just practice with the team. I think "NO WAY" is a pretty absurd statement.
IMO, the lineup that would give Duke the best chance in March:
Nolan
Elliot
Kyle
Lance
Mason or Miles (whichever shows best in practice)
However, this lineup will only happen IF both Elliot and Nolan improve their ballhandling and shooting. If that happens then this lineup gives us length, athleticism, experience, shooting with Kyle, and is a big lineup (6'2, 6'5, 6'8,
6'8, 6'11). I could easily see Jon starting instead of Elliot and all three guards on the floor at the end of games. But I just think that when looking at the last 4 years, each NCAAT loss pretty much resulted because the other team had superior athleticism.
Alright. Let me rephrase. There is no way to simulate ACC caliber basketball (probably not even MVC caliber basketball) in practice every day if we run a blue team and a white team with three guards a piece. Okay?
ADDITIONALLY, if we did so, we would be selling a lot of top flight post talent short. Guys come on... this team will run all three guards together occassionally, but it just isn't going to be for a majority of the minutes, it isn't going to be the primary game plan, it just IS NOT as feasible as other options.
play zoubs at the end of games if he hasn't fouled out he suprisingly was 80% from the line last year...
No I didn't, I said I could easily see Jon starting and even if he's 6th man he'd still be getting 28/30+ minutes. I'm also looking at this from more of a defensive perspective, with Nolan and Elliot that would give Duke a very tough defensive backcourt with length and lateral quickness. If Duke wants to go deep in March they need athleticism and it's not like they'd be sacrificing experience for athleticism because both Nolan and Elliot now have experience.
Yes... defensive quickness Sorry for the confusion. The ability to move feet, rotate, switch, etc. PlumI was pretty inept at this last year, Zoubs is great for defeding the low post, and I'm not counting Kyle as a "big" as he's likely to see lots of time outside of the post again. So when you're looking at Thomas, Z, PlumI, PlumII, Czyz, and Kelley, I think that Thomas starts over all of those guys due to his defensive quickness and ability to guard multiple players on the opposing team.
The last Duke team that was this thin at the guard position, IMO, was the 04-05 team that had Daniel, Dock, JJ and Demarcus. JJ averaged 37 mpg that season, Ewing was at 35, Dock had 27 and Nelson played about 19. So that's 48 mpg between Dock and Nelson... you take the number of guards on that team down to 3, JJ still plays 37-38, Ewing goes up to 37-38, and the third guard left probably averages in the same range if we play the same style. JJ and D-Ew started every game, so if you start the other guard, whoever it might be, I don't think its an extrapolation to think they'd be playing MAJOR minutes.
I'm not saying its a definite, but three guards start... three guards play major minutes... three guards have dead legs at the end of games.