Starting Line Up 2009-10

[Cumae Sybl]

Yeah, the first three are a given. After that, anything could happen. I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas starts (given that he has the most experience of the remaining players). He'd be the guy I'd expect to start at the 4, but it all depends on who gets the start at the 5 spot. Those two spots may wind up being very fluid throughout the year, with lots of players getting starts and the minutes being distributed widely.

I do think the most important player development is going to be that of Smith. He's going to have to prove he can play 35 minutes per game and be a constant presence on both ends of the floor. We can't afford for him to get into any foul trouble or disappear for large stretches, because he can't be subbed.

Smith is also going to have the responsibility of handling the quickest player on the opposing team every night for major minutes. That's a big burden to carry. Hopefully he's ready for it. He showed flashes of the ability last year, but struggled for long stretches as well.

If he can step up and be an impact player for 35 minutes per game, we may be able to survive the lack of depth at guard (assuming no injuries to Scheyer, Smith, or Singler). But that's a big key to the season. If Smith is unable to handle that enormous increase in responsibility, it's likely to be a tough year.

A lot does depend on player development, or unkown players. Perhaps moreso than in the last 10-15 years at Duke.

My main fear regarding next year's team is Defense. I know that Kyle can handle the 3 offensively, and even the 2 for limited minutes. Same with Ryan Kelly, only less so than Kyle. But seeing those 2 guard the opposing 2s and 3s gives me with willies. And not the good kind. Same with Lance. I think he will be OK vs most 3s, but the 2s also worry me with him. Even if injuries and foul trouble go OK, I worry about stopping the other guys.

Right now, the opposing coaches we play must be thinking the same thing. Attack Kyle, Nolan, and Jon on D. Go at them, and isolate them on D, and try to draw fouls. If you could get to the last 4 minutes of a game with 2 of them fouled out or playing with 4 fouls, you could easily win even if you were down 5-10 points. Basically, try to foul out the only 3 proven ball handlers we have (Kelly and Plum 2 may have been good dribblers vs low level HS comp, but it is a different kettle of fish vs ACC level defensive guards who will be waiting under the ball as those bigs dribble).

IF, and its a big if, the Plums can develop into mobile shot blockers, our whole season changes. Jon, Ryan, Kyle, and Lance can employ the JJ style of defense on the perimeter. Basically, they can guard quicker players by really gambling big, secure in the knowledge that when/if their guy penetrates a shot blocker is waiting. Eventually the guy stops penetration entirely for fear of eating the ball on national television. I say the Plums because Z has yet to show me he is a MOBILE shot blocker. With 2 mobile shot blockers, or 1 mobile shotblocker next to an immobile, but HUGE, shot blocker, Duke's season gets exponentially brighter.

Really, I am not super worried about the O side. I would like more ball handling, penetration, and overall guard/wing play on O, but I think we can score. We DO have some mismatches on O. To win, you have to score more points than the other guy. You can do this by playing bad D and great O (See UNC, Last Year). Similiarly, you can play bad O and great D and win games (See Duke during JJ's last year when he and Shel were the only quasi OK O players on the team. JJ was great, Shel was OK, and everybody else was horrible on O). Next year we can be at least mediocre on O. And possibly better than that. Not great, but Solid to Good. If we can play great D we can be dangerous come March, with us being a threat for the elite 8. But that D hinges on shot blockers to protect our wing players. Beyond the natural 4s playing 2-3, shot blockers would protect Jon and Nolan from foul trouble by putting less pressure on them to stay in front of/with their assignments.

Similarly, we have some huge mismatches on D. Last year when dicussing UNC vs Duke, many posters said how much trouble either Hans or Thompson would have with Kyle, which they did. But those same posters discounted the trouble Kyle would have guarding those guys, which was also true.

If we have some shot blockers to discourage penetration, then our wings can play up on the opposing wings. I think the whole season depends on this.

[rsvman]

My question to the board is where does everyone think we will finish now that EWill is gone? I think we are still a tourney team and am eager to see how K will adjust. I know he doesn't like zone, but if there was ever a time to play it, now seems like it. If he went big, he could play some great zone, keep some guards out of foul trouble and save Singler from getting gased and in foul trouble. They say coaches talk, maybe K could get some pointers from Boheim on the 2-3. By the way, Boheim is in no way in K's league, but the guy has had success with the zone. Just thoughts.

I think this is the key post in the last 4 pages of this thread. Syracuse seems to do pretty well against Villanova, whereas 'Nova shreds us and eats us for breakfast. This coming season we will be even more hard-pressed (pardon the pun) to cover teams like that with the typical pressure man-to-man to which Coach K is married.

Time for K to have an affair with the zone.


(Sadly, I think he's too stubborn to do it.)

[Cumae Sybl]

I think this is the key post in the last 4 pages of this thread. Syracuse seems to do pretty well against Villanova, whereas 'Nova shreds us and eats us for breakfast. This coming season we will be even more hard-pressed (pardon the pun) to cover teams like that with the typical pressure man-to-man to which Coach K is married.

Time for K to have an affair with the zone.


(Sadly, I think he's too stubborn to do it.)

It depends. I think a Zone WOULD help us win more games next year. But, I still don't think a zone makes us a threat for the Final Four. It might make us more likely to get to the sweet 16, or it might not. I don't know.

It may not be popular, and I know K won't go for it, at all, but I would just as soon take a different tack. Play the way we always play under K, and force feed minutes to Plums and Kelly. Get them ready for next year, when Duke will have at least a capable guard rotation. Capable, and potentially nasty, if we get a few more recruits.

Essentially, take our lumps this year get ready for a glorious future. K won't do this, and for Jon's sake I really can't fault him for it.

[sagegrouse]

Syracuse seems to do pretty well against Villanova, whereas 'Nova shreds us and eats us for breakfast.
Time for K to have an affair with the zone.


(Sadly, I think he's too stubborn to do it.)

This is the ultimate non sequitur. Villanova shot 27 of 64 against Duke (42%). Now exactly how is it that "'Nove shreds us?" Sounds like our man-to-man with switches worked pretty darn well.

OTOH Duke shot 16 of 60 (27%) and a whopping 18% from 3pt land. Gerald and Jon were a combined 4 for 32 (% is censored because it is obscene). Now exactly how does a zone defense improve our shooting percentage against 'Nova? Maybe if 'Nova used it?

sagegrouse

[NSDukeFan]

This is the ultimate non sequitur. Villanova shot 27 of 64 against Duke (42%). Now exactly how is it that "'Nove shreds us?" Sounds like our man-to-man with switches worked pretty darn well.

OTOH Duke shot 16 of 60 (27%) and a whopping 18% from 3pt land. Gerald and Jon were a combined 4 for 32 (% is censored because it is obscene). Now exactly how does a zone defense improve our shooting percentage against 'Nova? Maybe if 'Nova used it?

sagegrouse

Thanks for the reminder about that. I have fallen into the Nova killed us trap, when in truth our shooting killed us a lot more than Nova's guards beating us off the dribble did (though that was a huge issue.) I am even more scared of them next year, though it will be interesting if our increased size inside will prevent some of the shots inside after penetration. Hopefully, we would hammer them on the boards as well, though they rebounded well against us last year as well. Fortunately, that is one of very few teams that scare me next year with our lineup.

I believe K starts Nolan and Scheyer (can't see how that doesn't happen), Singler of course, Thomas due to his experience, leadership and hopefully a few more skills after a good summer and Zoubs or a Plumlee. I think the 4 and 5 will change starters throughout the season and expect lots of chances for our top 9 to show their stuff. Hopefully, Czyz gets some opportunities and capitalizes as well, though I am pessimistic due to his shortened summer.

One thing I am really looking forward to is to see how everyone has improved and unlike last year, there will be more minutes for the freshmen and everyone else who we all want to see succeed.

I also don't see the need for a zone and only expect it on occasion like this year. I think we will sag more on defense than usual, and hopefully everyone picks up helpside quickly.

[BlueintheFace]

In my opinion, having a strong identity is really about having 2 or 3 things you believe you are good at (good father/mother, good architect, good communicator, etc...). A person takes those 2 or 3 things and makes them the foundation for their identity, and when everything seems to be going wrong, they rely on that solid foundation.

I also believe that coach K thinks along these same lines and tries to establish 2 or 3 qualities every year as a foundation for each individual team's identity to further strengthen the team's chances and personality. Every year, one of those is defense... but the others vary.

Last year I believe it was Defense, Three-point shooting, and Health. You can really see these three themes in his rhetoric throughout the year. He often talked about threes not falling or how well a player shot from behind the arc, how our defensive intensity was, and how we are finally healthy.

08'-09' Duke Basketball- We play defense harder than anybody, we don't hesitate to take and make the open threes, and we are finally healthy.

This next year I believe the team identity will be all about Defense, Rebounding, and protecting the rim.

09'-10' Duke Basketball- We play defense harder than anybody, we own the boards, and we don't give easy looks in the lane.

I think you can already see some of that rhetoric emerging from Coach K's 4-part interview.

http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/tag/duke-basketball/

[ACCBBallFan]

There is never a good year to have Kyle and Lance having by default to cover a perimeter guy.

This year at least ACC in particular and NCAA in general has an unusual shortage of 3 point shooters, with Duke while down by its 3 point shooter standards perhaps being the most loaded in ACC with Scheyer, Singler and occasionally Nolan, possibility of Kelly, with Mason being a stretch.

So I suspect we see a sagging man to man employing some zone principles, not much zone per se as 2-3, 1-3-1, and lots of steals by talls the opposing guards can't pass or shoot over more than an overcommitting man to man.

Just can't afford to get Nolan and Lance into FT playing too aggessively. I also expect to see other team press a lot when Singler has to play SG while Nolan or Jon rest a couple miniutes but with mobile bigs like Kelly/Mason that may play into Duke's favor as much as it hurts.

I fully expect to see a ton more offensive rebounds and putbacks instead of Duke being in the receiving end of that as has been the case quite a bit this decade.

MD for example without Dave Neal is even more highly dependent on a couple of frehmen bigs to snare a rebound.

FSU is not huritng for bigs with Alabi, Reid, Singletary, but after losing a couple good gaurds the year before now loses Toney Douglas too. UNC still has plenty of bigs but is losing Ellington, Lawson and Green not to mention Tyler, and their questions are Drew II at PG and 3 point shooting, not bigs, with return of Ginyard for defense a big plus.

BC losing Tyrese Rice but have some good role players returning, VA Tech losing Vassallo but still having Delaney and Jeff Allen, Maimi losing McClinton, Clemson losing KC Rivers and Ogelsby but still have Booker, Wake losing Teague, Hale and Johnson etc. but still have quite a bit of talent,

plus a few ACC bottom feeders not having much to lose in the first place and still losing guys like Costner and Fells, UVA having a new coach etc.

So given all that, I do not buy these concerns that Duke is close to 8-8 in ACC. Duke still competes for top honors in ACC and sweet 16/Elite 8 is probably their high water mark but once you get that far anything can happen based a lot on matchups and a little luck, and who gets hot as a team.

[SupaDave]

Coach K said it! Kyle's playing on the perimeter.

[CDu]

Coach K said it! Kyle's playing on the perimeter.

Well, duh! Was there anyone who didn't believe that Singler would be playing on the perimeter this year with the lack of guards we have? I mean, most people knew Singler would be playing the perimeter (as the 3 man) before Williams left. Singler was moving to the perimeter out of necessity as soon as Henderson declared.

This isn't really news. In fact, there wasn't much that came from that press conference of any significance. We already knew (or at least should have highly suspected) that Singler would play the perimeter on this team. We know Coach K is going to say he loves his team. There wasn't ever really much substance to the Lakers thing.