We are up the #14 in both polls. I find that the polls are usually a fairly good indicator of the top seeds—much better than the RPI. So, according to the polls, we are a mid #4 seed, right on the verge of being a #3 seed.
That sounds about right to me.
CollegeRPI.com has us as a #3 already, in a bracket with Florida as the #1 and Texas A&M as our #2. Michigan State is the #6 we are likely to face in the round of 32. I’d take that bracket in a heartbeat!!
ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who I found last year to be stunningly wrong when the brackets were actually announced, has us as a #5 right now (which is utterly ludicrous and supported by no poll or computer ranking ANYWHERE). I discount him as a fool.
My read is that we get a #3 if we either win the two tough games this week or if we make the ACC finals. Split this week and lose to Carolina or someone else in the semis and we are a #4. Lose the next 3 in a row and we are a #5 or a #6.
Oh, and if we run the table including winning the ACC title and we are a #2.
-Jason "ACC has 6 bids locked up right now-- Clemson, Tech, and/or FSU need to do more" Evans
I have no problem being a 6-seed. I'd rather be a 6 than a 5, that's for sure. But I'd rather be a 2 than a 3. Who knows what could happen between now and Selection Sunday, though.
BTW, good to have you back, Jason.
I totally agree- I think Lunardi is way off. But, that being said, I'm fine with expecting a 4 or 5 seed and then being pleasantly surprised on Selection Sunday.
How sweet would it be to be the 2 or 3 seed in a region with Ohio State or Wisconsin at the 1 seed, and Memphis at the 2 or 3? I like our chances! Plus, I love the thought of Zoubek getting a chance to bang with Oden or Josh taking Oden on the perimeter. Not to mention our ability to extend on 3 point shooters- I can't see Ohio State beating us on midrange shots.
Work left to do--
Ga Tech- I think that a win against UNC will get them in so long as they do not follow it up by losing to both BC and their first round ACC opponent (especially if it is Wake or NC State). If they lose to Carolina then a loss to BC is pretty much a death blow. Even if they beat BC, they will need at least one and maybe even 2 ACC tourney wins to get to the dance. With 3 guaranteed games lefft, they are at 18 wins. I think 20 probably gets them in. 21 makes them a sure-thing. 19 and they head to the NIT.
FSU- Winning at Miami is a given to even be in the conversation. If they win their first round ACC tourney game after beating Miami then I think they may be in. That would give them 20 wins (and 8 in the ACC) against one of the nation's toughest schedules. Lose at Miami and you almost certainly need to make the ACC semifinals and maybe even the finals.
Clemson- If any ACC team is going to win 20 and not get invited, it is the Tigers. They are at 19 wins and damn well better beat Miami at home this week to get to 20. The problem is, especially when you look at their weak non-conf slate, 20 doesn't mean as much from them. If they follow up Miami with a win at Va Tech then their fortune really turns and they might even be in at that point. It would depend upon what other buble teams are doing and if there are some nasty upsets that send undeserving teams to the dance. without a victoy over Va Tech, they may need to make the ACC semifinals. Bottom line-- I think they need 21, maybe even 22 victories to feel safe at this point.
Everyone else is in.
--Jason "I've noticed FSU talking up Douglas' return lately. If he actually plays in the ACC tourney and plays well, that really helps their bid and seed chances" Evans
I agree. It seems like the most likely outcome will be a seed somewhere in the 3-4 range with 2 as our best case scenario and 6 as our worst care scenario. If we take care of business at home, we should eliminate a 6 seed from the range of possibilites.
I actually like FSU's chances. Florida, at Duke, and VT are all good wins, they look good to finish 8-8 in the league and, as you already mentioned, will finish with one of the 20 most difficult schedules. I also think the committee will take into account the fact that much of their schedule difficulty was voluntary (at Pittsburgh, at Wisconsin, and Florida). I also wonder if the committee will have last year on their minds if FSU is one of the last 2-3 teams on the bubble.
Last edited by mph; 02-27-2007 at 11:12 AM.
...are focused on ratings more than basketball analysis. That is unfortunate but it is reality. ESPN is playing the Duke hand for maximum effect. First, we were in danger of being NIT bound, then we rebounded to be a mid-level seed, now we need one more victory to move past our current #5 position.
We will be a #3 or #4 seed, IMO.
FSU & Clemson have much work to accomplish to earn an invitation. The ACC will max out at seven bids or possible just six.
I too would have little problem with a 6 seed...I guarantee that no 3 seed would want to see us in the second round. I nevertheless think 6 is horribly low. What I really don't get is that kuralonna, with 4 losses, is a distinct possibility (and not far from an outright lock) for a 1 seed, whereas our 7 losses push us far enough down to even be mentioned as a 6, with a stronger schedule in the same conference.
If I had to predict just one number, I'd project us as a 4 right now. Might be kind of nice...I agree with others that we just may actually be peaking at the right time this year, and it'll definitely be fun to play the hunter as opposed to the hunted (at least for a round or two).
Va Tech 4
Out (Clemson, GTech, FSU)
The conventional wisdom seems to be that getting a top 4 seed is important -- there is a big difference between a 4 and 5 or 6 seed. Is the CW true or false? If true, is Duke on the "bubble" seeding wise?
Sure, I think the Committee will reward the two Big 10 schools with #1's. One will go to Kansas/A&M and the other to Florida. I think even if Carolina pulls out the ACC tourney, they fall to a 2 (b/c they are losing in Cameron).
As pointed out by others, Duke at a 3 is about right, unless we win out, which is ambitious. Maryland is hot at the right time, which goes a long way to undoing their terrible start. BC's 10 ACC wins are hard to ignore, but I think their last 10 and loss of Williams (not to mention underachieving in past few tourneys) will hurt them. UVA is a tough call but I see them stumbling early in the ACC tourney.
I would love to see Clemson make it in but their finish in league play will keep them out. You may be right that one of the other 2 will get a bid, but I think it would take a run into the ACC semis for either. The ACC deserves 7, no doubt. But, unless one of those 2 does something special over the next two weeks, I see the Committee looking elsewhere.
Secondly, while I agree that Florida is very good, I'd much rather play them than UCLA, Wisconsin, or especially Ohio State. I think Florida loafs a lot and, sorta like UConn last year, thinks they are entitled to things instead of fighting for them. Florida can be had.
I hate our matchups versus ultra-quick teams like UCLA and Wisconsin. I don't want to see Memphis as our #2 either (i we get a #3) because they too are insanely quick. Speed is my biggest fear for this team. I think super-speed is the hardest thing for our D to handle and, as we all know, our D is our life.
As for OSU, they too are fast but the reason they scare me is Oden. I think he would just kill McBob and Nelson's ability to take the ball to the hoop. All those drive and dish buckets we get go away against OSU because the other OSu players don't help off their men as much because Oden can provide all the help they need all by himself. Plus, I suspect that as Oden gets healthier, Ohio State becomes increasingly impossible to beat. Yes, he is that good.
So, give me Florida, the team that thinks it can turn it on when it needs to. Teams like that NEVER win the title and it seems they are always upset victims (see UConn 2006 and Duke 2002 for recent examples).
-Jason "lets just run the table and be a #2, ok?" Evans
I was just thinking that if we run the table, we'll be a very similar 2 seed to UCLA last year. They finished the season strongly after some rough patches, and entered the tourney on a high note. I'm not saying that we'll make the finals or anything, but I'd love to see the recent play continue. I think that a key element will have to be finding a go-to scorer, as right now our offense looks ragged when we "need" to score, especially at the ends of halves.
#4 seeds and #5 seeds face #1 seeds in the Sweet 16. This year especially, the #1 seeds seem to be a LOT stronger than many of the #2 seeds. I know more than a few Duke fans who say they would rather be a #6 than a #4 so they could avoid UCLA, Florida, Ohio State as long as possible.
A lot of folks think the #5 is a very bad seed to be in because the #5s have a dreadful record in first round games against the #12 (at least that is the perrception, I forget how true it turns out to be). The #12s tend to be the very best of the teams that made the dance from the small conferences. Meanwhile, the #5s tend to be largely major conference teams who were good, but not great. Yup, the kind of team that is ripe for an upset. There are some NCAA Tourney watchers who consider the #5 to be the worst seed to bet upon.
--Jason "as I have been saying, lets get a #2 and not worry about all this " Evans
Stewart Mandel has us currently with a four seed. But the interesting thing in his article is that he mentions that unbalanced conference schedules will be a variable with the Committee. (I missed this over the weekend.) The example he uses is with "bubble teams," but it would seem to apply for seeding as well. That might help us considering (a) the overall strength of the ACC vis-a-vis other conferences and (b) our schedule in the ACC. Has anyone heard anything official about unbalanced conference schedules will impact seeding by the Committee?