Olek's Development

[m g]

it's been awhile since i've heard anything substantive about olek czyz's development. coming out of high school the two things we heard about most were his athleticism and work ethic - now that he's had a year at duke, does anyone have any information about what we can expect from him going forward?

[ACCBBallFan]

It will be a while before this question can be answered. Summer pick up games reports always have to be taken with grain of ssalt since there is no defense, eswpecially no team defense, as reports on Olek proved last year.

Even though Czyz may be Duke's second or third heaviest guy, there may be more need for a 3 than for a 4 depending on what Kelly/Mason can do offensively and defensively at 3. Kyle of course could do either.

If he has developed some ball handling ability to penetrate, we know he can dunk. So then it is a case of can he defend, particularly back door cuts which always caused Marty problems.

[BlueintheFace]

I heard he was tearing it up in the summer leagues. He'll probably start next season.

[El_Diablo]

I heard he was tearing it up in the summer leagues. He'll probably start next season.

...at point guard.

[Wander]

...at point guard.

And center, simultaneously.

[Cameron]

All joking aside, Olek's superman dunk on the right baseline against Presbyterian was one of the nastiest a Duke player delivered all season. Gerald obviously had some classics of his own, but that was as dirty as it gets. Sick.

If Olek can put the package together, he may leave here one of the great airmen we've seen in Durham.

As it is, however, he remains a hidden gem, yet to blossom into an ACC caliber player. I think he'll get there, but it won't be this season most likely.

[ncexnyc]

As it is, however, he remains a hidden gem, yet to blossom into an ACC caliber player. I think he'll get there, but it won't be this season most likely.

I believe you're right. As Duke fans we've been spoiled by the number of kids who are able to walk into the system and contribute immediately or after a short adjustment period. For some kids it requires the full four years for them to develop to their fullest potential.

While it's great to have immediate impact players, I think we all love the kids who show year by year improvement and who finally blossom in their senior year.

[Newton_14]

I was actually a bit surprised last year with where Olek was at with his game. I was not expecting him to be in the normal rotation, but I was expecting to see him closer to the level that Miles played at. I wonder if part of the problem was being used as a wing player rather than a post player... Olek possibly could have been a little better as a post, but who knows...maybe he just wasn't ready.

I do hope he can make progress and turn into a solid player. With his hops, he would be extremely fun to watch and he strikes me as the type of guy that would be estatic were he develop enough to be a factor on a good Duke team.

[Bob Green]

In regard to Olek, fans are going to have to exercise plenty of patience and ignore 95+ percent of summer pick-up reports. His best chance at earning playing time will be at small forward. We currently have 10 scholarship players on next seasons roster and six of them are definitely power forwards or centers. I agree with ACCBBallFan that Duke has a need for bench production at small forward and Olek might be able to earn some playing time in that spot. Hopefully, Elliot Williams works with Olek Czyz over the summer on defensive positioning, defending backdoor cuts, applying pressure in the full court press, etc...we all know Czyz must improve his defense to earn PT.

[Abraxas]

Small forward is the natural NBA position for Singler. He might want to play in that role... and that would allow the development of the PF and C for a number of players.

Let's examine the best Duke Lineups from last year:
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x68) 368-232 (+136)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x71) 281-241 (+40)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x41) 206-177 (+29)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler (x21) 69-45 (+24)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x16) 62-40 (+22)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Thomas (x11) 41-20 (+21)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x28) 124-104 (+20)
Paulus-Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x6) 34-17 (+17)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x21) 79-63 (+16)
Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 19-4 (+15)
Scheyer-Pocius-Williams-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 15-3 (+12)
Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Thomas (x6) 17-7 (+10)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x21) 50-41 (+9)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Zoubek (x10) 27-18 (+9)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-McClure-Thomas (x7) 20-11 (+9)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Zoubek (x7) 19-10 (+9)

Source: Jumbo's +/- thread: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...ad.php?t=12453

Several observations:

1. A core of players that appear almost every time
2. How much better the team was with Zoubek in the post (vs Thomas)
3. However, when there was a true post player (Zoubek or Thomas) in the linenup, and McClure and Singler were paired, they alternated their roles with McClure playing PF in Defense while Singler played PF in offense. Unfortunately, the stats tell you that those lineups were not often used probably because Henderson was playing SF very effectively (7 out top 9 lineups).

In my view, if Olek elevates his defense to "Play like McClure", he would then play as a PF in both defense and offense (because of his better offensive abilities). Only then Singler will play as SF. That would be a very tall lineup creating many matchup problems to our advantage. The bottomline is one of the PFs will take McClure's role allowing Singler not to wear down (or pick up the fouls) while playing PF defense. Perhaps, that position will be played by committee. Olek has a chance to play and even be in the starting lineup in 2011 or 2012. How good his defense has improved is one of the important questions for next season.

[BlueinBlo]

Small forward is the natural NBA position for Singler. He might want to play in that role... and that would allow the development of the PF and C for a number of players.

Let's examine the best Duke Lineups from last year:
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x68) 368-232 (+136)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x71) 281-241 (+40)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x41) 206-177 (+29)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler (x21) 69-45 (+24)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x16) 62-40 (+22)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Thomas (x11) 41-20 (+21)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x28) 124-104 (+20)
Paulus-Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x6) 34-17 (+17)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x21) 79-63 (+16)
Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 19-4 (+15)
Scheyer-Pocius-Williams-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 15-3 (+12)
Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Thomas (x6) 17-7 (+10)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x21) 50-41 (+9)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Zoubek (x10) 27-18 (+9)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-McClure-Thomas (x7) 20-11 (+9)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Zoubek (x7) 19-10 (+9)

Source: Jumbo's +/- thread: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...ad.php?t=12453

Several observations:

1. A core of players that appear almost every time
2. How much better the team was with Zoubek in the post (vs Thomas)
3. However, when there was a true post player (Zoubek or Thomas) in the linenup, and McClure and Singler were paired, they alternated their roles with McClure playing PF in Defense while Singler played PF in offense. Unfortunately, the stats tell you that those lineups were not often used probably because Henderson was playing SF very effectively (7 out top 9 lineups).

In my view, if Olek elevates his defense to "Play like McClure", he would then play as a PF in both defense and offense (because of his better offensive abilities). Only then Singler will play as SF. That would be a very tall lineup creating many matchup problems to our advantage. The bottomline is one of the PFs will take McClure's role allowing Singler not to wear down (or pick up the fouls) while playing PF defense. Perhaps, that position will be played by committee. Olek has a chance to play and even be in the starting lineup in 2011 or 2012. How good his defense has improved is one of the important questions for next season.

Nice Post!! I have always like Zoubek better than Thomas but still think neither of them would make us national championship contenders. I think we should start with that first most successful pairing and then when ACC play comes out Mason Plumlee in there. He really impressed me that last all star game.

[Duke #33]

I like Zoubek, but it seems he is only effective against certain players. When the other team had a big player(s), he seemed very effective at distrupting that persons offensive game(remember the FSU game in ACC tourny). In many games though, the other team had more mobile big men, so Zoubek easily got beat.
Back to Olek, I think that if he can improve his ball handling and 3 pt shot, he could play some valuable time at the 3. In addition, he would need to work on his perimeter defense. Physically/athletically, Olek is very capable of being a great player, but his skill level is not good enough yet.

[ACCBBallFan]

Singler is a smart defender, but not sure it is true to say he will draw less fouls as a 3 than as a 4.

Though a little taller than Lance, Mason is too frail to play the 5 slot, unless Singler is at the 3, and smeone else whether that be Kelly, Olek or Miles is also paired with those 2 in a 3-bigs set.

I think Lance needs to be a defensive specialist at the 3/4 but teams that field a defensive specialist as a starter usually are stroinger at both PG and C than Duke is, and Offense takes a hit with Lance as it did with Dave.

Realistically only Miles and Z have the size to play the 5, and with Singler at the 3 and one of Mason, Lance, Kelly or Olek at the 4, rebounding should not be a problem, but without Z or Miles, it will be unless both Mason and Kelly are as ready as Singler was his freshman year.

[Newton_14]

Singler is a smart defender, but not sure it is true to say he will draw less fouls as a 3 than as a 4.

Though a little taller than Lance, Mason is too frail to play the 5 slot, unless Singler is at the 3, and smeone else whether that be Kelly, Olek or Miles is also paired with those 2 in a 3-bigs set.

I think Lance needs to be a defensive specialist at the 3/4 but teams that field a defensive specialist as a starter usually are stroinger at both PG and C than Duke is, and Offense takes a hit with Lance as it did with Dave.

Realistically only Miles and Z have the size to play the 5, and with Singler at the 3 and one of Mason, Lance, Kelly or Olek at the 4, rebounding should not be a problem, but without Z or Miles, it will be unless both Mason and Kelly are as ready as Singler was his freshman year.

I agree with most of your post except for the Mason part. Mason is not frail. Kelly is thin, but Mason is sporting a pretty solid muscular body and I don't think he will have trouble adding weight and bulking up. Plus he has serious hops and length. I believe he will play mostly the 5 next season and I give him an outside chance of being the starter from day one.

He will get strong competition from both his brother and Zoubs. Lance will finally get to play his natural position which should help him as well. Plenty of depth an options at the 4 and the 5 in the coming season and they all should help each other get better in the practices. We just need someone from that group to be an offensive threat.

[miramar]

I agree with most of your post except for the Mason part. Mason is not frail. Kelly is thin, but Mason is sporting a pretty solid muscular body and I don't think he will have trouble adding weight and bulking up. Plus he has serious hops and length. I believe he will play mostly the 5 next season and I give him an outside chance of being the starter from day one.

ESPN lists him at 6-11/220 lbs., which is pretty close to Laettner's 6-11/225 at Duke (per dukeupdate.com). I have also seen him listed at 205 and 210, but he certainly looks to have the physical tools to play the #5.

For three years I have been hoping that someone would step up and get at least 10 points and 7 rebounds at the center position, and Mason could be the guy.

[Duke #33]

get at least 10 points and 7 rebounds at the center position, and Mason could be the guy.

While Mason can get 10 and 7 at Duke, next year those numbers would seem high. A good freshman year would be around 6 and 5.
For reference, Ed Davis averaged 6.7 points and 6.6 rebounds and then was projected to be around the middle to start of the lottery.

[Bob Green]

Though a little taller than Lance, Mason is too frail to play the 5 slot...

I agree with most of your post except for the Mason part. Mason is not frail. Kelly is thin, but Mason is sporting a pretty solid muscular body and I don't think he will have trouble adding weight and bulking up. Plus he has serious hops and length. I believe he will play mostly the 5 next season and I give him an outside chance of being the starter from day one.

ESPN lists him at 6-11/220 lbs., which is pretty close to Laettner's 6-11/225 at Duke (per dukeupdate.com). I have also seen him listed at 205 and 210, but he certainly looks to have the physical tools to play the #5.

I agree with Boozer and miramar. Mason Plumlee is taller than Miles Plumlee and much bigger than Lance Thomas. I suspect there will be serious competition for starters minutes in the post next season. Zoubek and Thomas have the advantage that comes with the experience of Seniors, but nobody should rule out the Brothers Plumlee. Personally, I believe the job is Zoubek's going into the start of practice, but Mason and Miles will be pushing Zoubek hard for minutes. Depending upon the scenario: team health, foul trouble, and the strengths of the team we are playing on any specific night, Lance Thomas could see time at small forward.

Of course this thread is about Olek Czyz, and as I've previously posted, Olek's best chance to earn playing time is at small forward. With our thin backcourt, competition for the small forward position is going to be intense, especially during any game one of our three guards encounter foul troubles.

[ACCBBallFan]

With respect to Olek, yes I think he is in competition with Kelly for a very few minutes backing up Singler at the 3 spot and perhaps more extended time when Singler has to play the 2 spot if one of the three guards is in foul trouble or injured, causing Kyle to play as much as 10 minutes there while the two available guards each play about 30 or more. In that instance Kyle would play another 20 or more at the 3, leaving 20 or so to be shared by Lance, Kelly and Olek possibly in that order.

Maybe my expectation that centers have to weigh at least 230 was too high a bar, though still preferable. I see the UNC had Ed Davis listed at 6'10" 215 and he was effective at times in his limited minutes, though paired with a bigger guy too.

Lance being 6'8 and 220 or so was problematic but maybe the three extra inches of height and some leaping skills and aggressiveness makes that more palatable for Mason.

I also agree with Bob that Zoubs will be one of the centers and perhaps the first choice against traditionally sized back to the basket guys and the Miles and now maybe Mason too will share the position as Zoubs cannot go 30 for a number of reasons, at most average 25 and I think it will be more like 20.

I know some people hope for a lot less than that but I think many people confuse style points with effeceness as Jumbo's +/- stats prove Zoubek is one of Duke's most effective +/- players.

If Olek has improved court awareness tremendously he has the size and athleticim to make an impact, but I expect his minutes will at most resemble Miles' or Marty's last year, whether that be at the 3, the 4 or the emergency post defender. He will be an exciting player, but exciting on both ends of the floor for differnet reasons.

Perhaps Kelly or Mason will get more minutes than Miles last year but to expect both to be Singler as a frosh like and Hansbrough as a frosh like in their freshman year is a lot to ask, adn they are in effect in competition not only with Lance and Zoubs but also with Olek and Miles who have the extra year in the Duke system.

Having Singler, Scheyer and Nolan/Elliott to spread the spacing will give thes guys more room to operate. If any of them can develop a mid range jump shot while the top three offensive threats draw double teams or penetrate past their defender that will help their PT over those who don't.

[weezie]

Short and sweet, Olek has great hands and wide shoulders and will be just fine.
A banger in the making.

[Wander]

My guess is that Czyz is a Lee Melchioni like contributor, and that means garbage minutes next year and an important role player his final two years. I want the 2010 ACC Player of the Year playing as many minutes as possible, and if Kelly and Plumlee aren't good enough to completely take over Czyz's potential minutes, I think we're in trouble.

This of course comes with the usual disclaimers about being really early to start guessing minutes, injury issues, etc.