Angels & Demons
Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian
Land of the Lost
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Other (list in your post)
With Wolverine just a week or so away, we need to get the "top box office hits of the summer" thread going post haste!!
So, I am posting a poll where we can vote on what we think the top 5 will be. Please limit your votes to only the films you think will be in the top 5 once the summer boxoffice comes to a close. We'll probably call it shortly after Labor Day.
Last year, there were several folks who got 4 out of 5 correct, but no one got em all.
If I did not include a movie you wish to vote for, just post something explaining your picks.
--Jason "as always, voters are encouraged to discuss their picks and disparage the picks of others " Evans
Ok, the list of movies is up. Did I leave anything out?
--Jason "I left out GI Joe, but it is an August release and Dennis Quaid is not a huge BO draw" Evans
I took Star Trek, Angels and Deamons, Transformers, Ice Age, and Harry Potter.
I saw the leaked X-Men Origins, and it was absolutely terrible. Forget that it wasn't finished, bad reviews are going to kill the release - otherwise I would've taken it over Ice Age.
Nice work as always, Jason, but is there any chance you could edit the poll choices to show the (currently scheduled) release dates? It may influence people's decisions.
For example, I considered Night at the Museum 2, but it opens opposite not only Terminator, but also Dance Flick, which will eat into its audience.
Brutal summer slate, by the way. It will be hard for any film to top the box office 2 weekends in a row until about mid-July.
Isn't the Bruno movie coming out mid July? I think people are going to flock to that one...
My Quick Smells Like French Toast.
Why haven't YOU voted yet, Jason?
I've got Star Trek, Up, Terminator, Harry Potter, and Transformers. People will be chomping at the bit for a good summer popcorn film, plus all the Trekkies will go so they can complain, so I"m not betting against ST. Pixar always does well. Terminator is a sure thing. Harry Potter. 'Nuff said. They could film me bouncing on a trampoline for two hours (they could put the scenes involving my massive coronary after the credits or as special content on the DVD) and make $100M with it if they said I was Harry Potter. And I've got a feeling that Transformers is gonna do pretty well. Meagan Fox is only the hottest thing going. She melts the plastic in my underwear.
We'll see. Last year, I only got three.
LET'S GO DUKE!
I'll have to think about top 5. I think Star Trek, Harry Potter and Transformers are givens. I imagine Up will get the Pixar bump even if it is not as marketable of a story (was Wall-E?), then the 5th. Up for grabs among Wolverine, Land of the Lost (if it is able to be funny as a PG movie), maybe Public Enemies, but Michael Mann films aren't blockbuster like that usually. I bet there is a sleeper/surprise we aren't thinking of. Possibly Terminator since it will end up PG-13. Gotta think on this.
Last edited by A-Tex Devil; 04-22-2009 at 05:05 PM.
Wolverine, Museum, Transformers, Potter, and Terminator. I think I got all five last year, but this time I would be happy with four... not sure about Wolverine, to be frank
I think Harry Potter and the Transformers are practically givens to be top 5. After that its tougher to call, but I went with Up and Ice Age for the kids watching them 17 times over the summer, and Angels & Demons since it will get its share of free marketing via any controversy that anyone believes its anything resembling the truth. I just don't see Trek having the mass appeal to break the top 5. It may revive the franchise, but it won't be a blockbuster. Wolverine might get in there, but early word of mouth worries me. But what do I know?
Someone asked about release dates-- I think all the films are listed in order of their release date so the ones at the beginning are the May films and then the June ones. There are not as many big releases after July 4th so the list gets kinda sparse toward the bottom.
-Jason "I need to think a lot more on these before I vote" Evans
final results and discussion in this thread. No one got all 5. A lot of us got 4 out of 5.
There were 5 people who got 4 out of 5 and their only miss was on Wall*E, which was the #5 movie of the summer. Those folks were:
- brevity: 4 (missed WALL-E)
- cato: 4 (missed WALL-E)
- DevilBen02: 4 (missed WALL-E)
- Lord Ash: 4 (missed WALL-E)
- soccerdevil: 4 (missed WALL-E)
Last summer it took $233 million to be #5 on the list (the #6 movie made $215 million). With a little bit of ticket inflation, it could be a touch higher this summer, though I am not so sure of that. I think this will be a worse summer than last from a ticket sales standpoint.
--Jason "Up is no WALL*E, will this be Pixar's first 'miss'" Evans
I think this summer is much, much weaker than last, with several big names that don't really do that much for me.
That said, there are 2 absolute locks for Top 5 - Harry Potter and Transformers. No way will anything stand in their way.
I also think that Star Trek will get up there, mainly because it's been a while and the buzz is really strong.
So for me, that leaves two other spots.
I think Up will get there - not just because it is Pixar...but because there are no other animated kid type movies, and really only one challenger, which is Night at the Museum. I think that movie is going to struggle. The first did well, but it did so with bad reviews, it just came out over the holiday break and carried the kid Thanksgiving and X-mas crowd. It won't be so fortunate this time.
So my top 4 are UP, Star Trek, Potter and Transformers.
That leaves one more - I think it will be between Wolverine and Terminator. Not sure who I will pick, but leaning towards..."Hey - get out of my set."
I will go to see Night at the Museum because my 10 year old will love it. Other than that there is nothing on the list that I really care to see.
LET'S GO DUKE!
Still, as opposed to last summer when Panda came out before WALL*E, the Pixar flick gets the head start this summer (Ice Age 3 coms out on July 1 while Up hits on May 29th). The summer is more front-loaded though and Night at the Museum 2 comes out May 22nd, one week before Up meaning Up will have more competition.
--Jason "I just cannot decide what to vote for this summer!" Evans
Which movies will have the most things blowing up? I vote for those.
You must spread some comments around before flaming the Moderators again.
- Terminator 4
- Transformers 2
- X-men 4
- Star Trek 11
- GI Joe: Rise of Cobra
They may blow up a planet in Star Trek and will certainly blow up some huuuge starships, so if you want to rank them by volume of stuff blown up, I'd put Star Trek #1.
--Jason "this is actually a pretty decent formula... at least as a starting point" Evans
I've noticed that about half of the movies in this poll are either sequels or continuations of a series. This makes it hard to predict - a lot of people will watch sequels no matter how bad they are just because they feel like they should.
No upsets in my picks except for Ice Age - the kids movies make a killing because the parents have to go with their kids, sometimes multiple times. BTW what's a good age to take your child to their first movie? My daughter is turning 3 in July.