Why Does No One Say It?

[Duke09]

Carolina hasn't produced a pro in over ten years, since Antwan and Vince Carter left. That was 1998. I've been thinking about this for a long time. When will the media figure this out? Instead of the usual Duke memo about not producing big men or pros. Since 1998, who has come out of Carolina and done well?
Joe Forte? disappeared
Sean May? Ate himself out of the league
Rashad McCants? As Enigmatic as ever in the great North
Raymond Felton? Decent passer but shoots under 40% from the field for his career
Brandan Wright? Still young but getting under 20mpg
Marvin Williams? The best of the bunch, decent player but hardly an All-Star
Brendan Hayood? 7.5ppg career average

Meanwhile, in that same time frame, Duke has produced Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Chris Duhon, Jason Williams if he never got on a motorcycle, and Michael Dunleavy.

I just wanted to say it.

[dukemsu]

Carolina hasn't produced a pro in over ten years, since Antwan and Vince Carter left. That was 1998. I've been thinking about this for a long time. When will the media figure this out? Instead of the usual Duke memo about not producing big men or pros. Since 1998, who has come out of Carolina and done well?
Joe Forte? disappeared
Sean May? Ate himself out of the league
Rashad McCants? As Enigmatic as ever in the great North
Raymond Felton? Decent passer but shoots under 40% from the field for his career
Brandan Wright? Still young but getting under 20mpg
Marvin Williams? The best of the bunch, decent player but hardly an All-Star
Brendan Hayood? 7.5ppg career average

Meanwhile, in that same time frame, Duke has produced Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Chris Duhon, Jason Williams if he never got on a motorcycle, and Michael Dunleavy.

I just wanted to say it.

But the Cookie Monster will be there right behind the bench tomorrow, in a seat that would usually be reserved for someone who produced in the NBA.

May had a tremendous offensive game, but he was never going to be an NBA regular, due to his injuries, which were caused at least in part by his weight issues.

As for the rest...pfftt. Woudn't give up on M. Williams just yet, or Wright. Both tremendous talents, but still raw.

dukemsu

[chrisheery]

Felton is the best of the bunch. His numbers this year are very good and he is sought after by a number of teams going into free agency.

One you left off:
Brandan Wright


That said, I agree with the point of your post. None of them have become the stars Carolina gets credit for producing. I can almost guarantee none of the current guys will, either, though. Lawson is undersized and will likely play a lot like TJ Ford in the NBA. The best pro prospect that plays a lot is probably Danny Green, which isn't saying much. I guess Ellington could be a useful pro, but he's certainly not someone a team will be built around. Ed Davis might have the most upside.

Not sure if that is an indictment of the program though. As many of us say about Duke when people say Duke doesn't produce pros, who cares? If you can win with guys that aren't pros, isn't that all the better for your program?

[zingit]

Uhhh, I'm pretty sure any UNC fan would respond, "Michael Jordan." Q.E.D. I know you said "since Antwan and Vince Carter left," but still, when you got the greatest player ever, most people will give you a free pass, at least for a while. Who knows if that free pass might expire sometime, though, and people will start talking about how unremarkable most of their recent pros have been.

[eddiehaskell]

May had a tremendous offensive game, but he was never going to be an NBA regular, due to his injuries, which were caused at least in part by his weight issues.

Considering the Bobcats used a lotto pic on him, they probably thought he would at least be serviceable for while. So far he's played in 80 games in 3 years. During '06-'07 season he averaged 11.9 ppg and 6.7 rpg in 35 games, so maybe he can get back to that level of play.

Wright really isn't that young anymore - he'll be 22 in October. A lot of players around his age are playing better. Granted, he may just be a late bloomer.

[chrisheery]

Uhhh, I'm pretty sure any UNC fan would respond, "Michael Jordan." Q.E.D. I know you said "since Antwan and Vince Carter left," but still, when you got the greatest player ever, most people will give you a free pass, at least for a while. Who knows if that free pass might expire sometime, though, and people will start talking about how unremarkable most of their recent pros have been.

If you aren't going to play by the rules, it makes it very hard for us to make a decent case.

Kidding, of course they have that, but Elton was a more valuable, bigger star than Jamison. Vince at his best could have been one of the greatest ever, but he lacked the drive that Jordan had. They also have Worthy, Perkins, and, of course, Scott Cherry.

[eddiehaskell]

Looking back at Roy's 15 years at Kansas, other than Paul Pierce, I don't remember any "star" players coming from Kansas.

Drew Gooden and Kirk Hinrich are pretty good...Raef LaFrentz was OK...

Maybe Dean (not UNC in general) was just a good producer of NBA talent (especially during the last 20 years of his career)? Jordan, Carter, McAdoo, Jamison, Worthy, Walter Davis, Phil Ford, Perkins, Stackhouse, Wallace, Brad Daugherty, Kenny Smith, Al Wood, Hubert Davis...

Another thing I notice about the above list is that Dean didn't let many talented players escape the state of North Carolina. Jordan, Worthy, W. Davis, McAdoo, Jamison, Daugherty, Stackhouse, H. Davis, Phil Ford and H. Davis are all from NC. Maybe it's not possible to do that now with players being shipped all around the country to prep school.

[jma4life]

Wright and Marvin were only at UNC for one year. For the Carolina fans that don't give Duke Corey or Luol, what do they say about those two.

Anyway, I still maintain that succeeding in the NBA has more to do with the player's talent and individual work ethic. I don't think a coaching staff can have a big effect on a player's development. If anything, I think the biggest thing a program can do is shape the player's ability to deal with being a man living alone, etc in the pro's and all that stuff but as far as player development, I think that while the top programs differ, it is not too extreme a difference.

I do think a program can have a significant effect on whether a player actually makes the NBA. What I mean by that is evidenced well by Mike Dunleavy's pro career. The guy was a bum for GS. He was woefully underperforming and just did not do well at all relative to expectations.

Well, you put Mike in Indiana and everthing changes. The different "program" did not make him a better player. It simply allowed him to showcase and utilize his talents.

That is where programs differ. Maybe JJ would have made the same improvements at other programs but who knows whether he woudl have been given the opportunity he had at Duke. And with a guy like Stephen Curry, maybe he would've made the same or even greater improvements at Duke. But would he have had the opportunity to do as well as he has at Davidson?

These are random hypotheticals but my main point is, a program is most important in its ability to let players showcase talent. Actual development of talent is more dependent upon the player's individual work ethic, and innate abilities and frankly, a lot of these guys could make as much improvements in their games busting their asses with their older siblings as they could at a top program.

[rthomas]

Don't forget that Kobe would've picked Duke, so he goes on our list.

[bjornolf]

Duke09: You forgot Maggette in your list of Duke players. I think he's doing pretty well in the league. I don't think you can include Jay Williams though. You have to take the motorcycle into account, otherwise you'd have to give Sean May the benefit of the doubt if he'd stayed off the Big Macs. A player's off-court actions that basically end his career can't be ignored.

Chrisheery: Duke09 did have Wright. He's right under Felton.

[sandinmyshoes]

You have to love the sports fan cycle. We start pointing out the difference between pro players the last ten years, and then the UNC fans will use the "why hasn't K done more with so many players" argument that we used to use against Smith.

[davekay1971]

I never saw the "Duke doesn't produce pros" as a tremendous slam against the program. First of all, it is a clearly inaccurate claim. Second, if Coach K was able to get to all those final fours and win those national championships and all those ACC championships without pro talent, he must be a HELL of a coach!

Carolina recruiting fell off during Guthridge's tenure, and picked up again under Doh. Roy took a team with some pro talent to the championship, then reloaded. Felton, May, McCants, and Williams haven't set the world on fire, but Felton, at least, has a solid pro career, and Williams may yet develop. The current Carolina team, all too likely to win a NC, will produce probably no NBA all stars (except perhaps Lawson), but 4 NBA players among the current starters, with Davis sure to be an NBA player whenever he decides to go.

[brsett]

I don't disagree with your point that NBA talent at UNC has been a bit down recently, but then I look to their upcoming recruiting class, and ... well.. I think they'll be well represented before too long. The Henson kid looks ridiculous. Along with the other big name kids they've got coming I think a return the to the UNC of the 70's and 80's my be imminent.

[bjornolf]

Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll pick Roy and his staff for Team USA. Then Carolina can have a four year downswing and we can get some revenge. Maybe as an added bonus, the players won't be big fans of his. Just dreaming a little.

[miramar]

Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll pick Roy and his staff for Team USA. Then Carolina can have a four year downswing and we can get some revenge. Maybe as an added bonus, the players won't be big fans of his. Just dreaming a little.

There was an article not too long ago that indicated that Deano insisted that Coach K was the best possible candidate for Team USA, which of course was just an evil plot to put too much on his plate. Perhaps Coach K can return the favor and suggest they give the job to ol' Roy. They can even load up the team with Carolina guys, just as Deano did back in 1976.

[JimBD]

Uhhh, I'm pretty sure any UNC fan would respond, "Michael Jordan." Q.E.D. I know you said "since Antwan and Vince Carter left," but still, when you got the greatest player ever, most people will give you a free pass, at least for a while. Who knows if that free pass might expire sometime, though, and people will start talking about how unremarkable most of their recent pros have been.

Did UNC "produce" Michael Jordan? I'm pretty sure if he had gone to a college other than UNC, he still would have been one of the best players ever.

[studdlee10]

Anthony Randolph has surpassed Wright on the depth chart.

Wright is in a rather unfortunate situation. He's young and talented, but has been passed on the depth chart. He'll likely enter free agency unheralded, where he will be picked up for depth purposes.

He most certainly can become a good player in the league, but it's not encouraging that he's been passed up by a rookie who like him only spent only one year in college

Considering the Bobcats used a lotto pic on him, they probably thought he would at least be serviceable for while. So far he's played in 80 games in 3 years. During '06-'07 season he averaged 11.9 ppg and 6.7 rpg in 35 games, so maybe he can get back to that level of play.

Wright really isn't that young anymore - he'll be 22 in October. A lot of players around his age are playing better. Granted, he may just be a late bloomer.

[Biscuit]

Carolina hasn't produced a pro in over ten years, since Antwan and Vince Carter left. That was 1998. I've been thinking about this for a long time. When will the media figure this out? Instead of the usual Duke memo about not producing big men or pros. Since 1998, who has come out of Carolina and done well?
Joe Forte? disappeared
Sean May? Ate himself out of the league
Rashad McCants? As Enigmatic as ever in the great North
Raymond Felton? Decent passer but shoots under 40% from the field for his career
Brandan Wright? Still young but getting under 20mpg
Marvin Williams? The best of the bunch, decent player but hardly an All-Star
Brendan Hayood? 7.5ppg career average

Meanwhile, in that same time frame, Duke has produced Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Chris Duhon, Jason Williams if he never got on a motorcycle, and Michael Dunleavy.

I just wanted to say it.

As a Tar Heel I can readily admit that Duke has produced better pros than UNC over the last decade, mostly because Duke was the superior program in the early part of the decade and those are the players that are peaking now.

But you can't say "Jason Williams if he never got on a motorcycle" any more than I can say "Sean May if he never saw a McDonalds." It doesn't work that way.

Similarly, you can't downgrade Felton, a #5 pick and a PG who averaged 7 APG, for his poor shooting percentage, and then include as an asset in Duke's favor Dunleavy, a #3 pick who plays the 2/3 and who shoots almost as poorly. I promise you every single team in the league would rather have Felton than Dunleavy.

It is also a little strange to include Brand, who left in 2000, as a Duke product in your analysis but not include Jamison and Carter, who left in 1998. Jamison might be two years older, but he's been a lot more valuable than Brand this year.

Honestly, I think at this point it's kind of close when you consider all active pros. I'd give a slight edge to Duke. But when you consider the difference in the quality of the programs from 1999-2004, it's actually remarkable that the difference isn't greater.

[CLT Devil]

Living in Charlotte Ive been able to follow Felton's career as a Bobcat. He is very good...maybe his percentages don't show but he is very good at distributing and is a pretty powerful PG. I'd say he is the best of their pros right now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

For the record, I hate UNC. I hope Lawson stumps his big toe again and can't play tonight, Hanstravel gets called for 5 fouls in the first 5 minutes, and Ellington shoots 0-12 from behind the arc.

That said, UNC may be the one school that can't be knocked for their NBA success and that comes down to two words - Micheal and Jordan. Hate to say it, but IMO he's the greatest player ever to play the game. It doesn't matter if UNC doesn't produce a player who averages more than 10 points per game again, they still have MJ.

And regarding Kobe, he's not on our list. If he is, Duke haters would point to Shaun Livingston as another example of the "Duke curse"...