Duke's Demise, Or Not

[The1Bluedevil]

Going into the tournament Duke and UCONN were both better. They had both won their leagues and Duke won their conference tournament.

[dukie8]

Going into the tournament Duke and UCONN were both better. They had both won their leagues and Duke won their conference tournament.

Florida won the SECT. The question wasn't who was the best team 3 weeks before the end of the season. The question was who was the best team in 2006? Duke was by far the best team in the country in December of 2005 after its dismantling of #2 Texas. Duke was not one of the 2 best teams at the end of the season.

[Scorp4me]

I don't agree with your analogy. A more apt one would be that your company brings in a hotshot Harvard MBA. You chose the line of work, but all year this guy does a solid job but at the end of the year he completely drops the ball on whatever it is you do (maybe loses a big account, screws up the deal of the year, etc). Yes, this guy was good all year but, when it mattered most, he failed.

Another analogy would be someone in a class who nails all the pop quizzes and the mid-term and had great participation every class during the semester and then bombs the final to get a B in the class. I'd rather be the person who does above average during the semester, nails the final and then walks away with the A or A-.

Alright we'll use your analogy. My dad had a German class once. Everyone in the course was failing. He took his finals and got a 16. All his friends failed the class and he passed with a D-. The professor decided anyone making over a 15 passed. But he still can't speak a lick of German. If he'd done well througout the year he might have actually learned something.

I think winning it all and doing well in the tournament is important. I'm not trying to take away from that or be an apologist. I just don't see how in a sport where there are over 300 teams and only one team wins it all you can be considered a failure for not being one of those every year.

But ok, let's assume I'm wrong. So are you only successful if you win it all? Is it trips to the final four? If so how many times do you have to make it there? And define recently? It just leaves out way too many good teams when you start doing that. I think we're just so focused on Duke that we lose our perspective of how good we actually are. Especially when our biggest rival just won the whole thing...for only the fifth time by the way. Most schools would look at where we are and love to trade. Carolina wouldn't today, but what about Kentucky? Florida? Or what about Michigan? State?

But ok, let's assume I'm wrong. So are you only successful if you win it all? If so what do you consider recently? Is it trips to the final four, if so how many times do you have to make it there? Again define recently? It just leaves out way too many good teams when you do that.

Just like winning it all doesn't make you elite I don't think that losing it makes you fail. You try to keep yourself in that top 10, top 25, whatev
Just like winning it all doesn't make you elite I don't think that losing it makes you fail. You try to keep yourself in that top 10, top 25, whatever you want to call it and each year someone else takes the top spot.

Again, some of the arguments just sound like Carolina fans. It'd be one thing if we were arguing this in 95, but we aren't. Perspetive. I guess we all have a different one.

[The1Bluedevil]

Sorry when I think of best team I think of an entire season. If Mich State would have won last night would they have been the best team?

[Reddevil]

I wasn't born at the time but anyone who followed Duke during the dark days of the 70s has a ton of perspective when analyzing Duke's current situation in college basketball.

I think Duke will be back in a big way the next couple of years. This so called "slump" is not nearly as bad as the '94-95 and '95-'96 seasons. We all know what happened with one outstanding recruiting class Coach K can finally focus on Duke and not the US team. I think recruiting will be tremendous even if Duke does not get Wall.

I have been coming to this site since it was juliovision because I love reading the breakdowns of the games and reading up on the players that have committed to Duke. The topics I hate reading are the ones complaining about Duke not getting to the Final Fours or Duke not being able to recruit kids anymore because of X. I know fans are going to vent but sometimes the venting takes the form of whining when discussing these subjects.

Look. I'm as bummed as the next guy that we haven't gone further in the tournament the last few years. And, the fact that Carolina has had such success during that time is compounds the agony. Relentless grief from insufferable Tar Heel fans. Still . . .

I think it is a mistake to make any grand pronouncements about the last 4 years or so. The simple fact of the matter is that there is a razor thin line between success (which we have had) and exceptional success (which we want). Exacerbating the issue is the fact that the primary factor determining on which side of that line you lie is your success in recruiting talented players based on evaluations made when they are 16 years old. Talk about an inexact science! Throw on top the NBA angle, and its just very hard to manage.

Clearly, a couple of our semi-recent recruiting successes (which all teams envied we had them) turned out to be not as great as predicted. Thems the breaks.

You really need to take a longer view when you consider these sorts of things.

So Carolina won, and all is gloomy for a day. Years from now, when we look back at this era - including the 2002-2009, and whatever happens until K retires, we will all embrace the memories. We are in the midst of a VERY special time for the program. This won't last forever. Don't forget to appreciate it. The glass is so much more than half-full. The kids are great. The program is run the right way. The excitement every year is amazing. If you're feeling down about a 30 win season, an ACC Championship, and a sweet 16 showing, ask yourself this question, "Does it only feel bad because unc won?" If Mich. St. had won, would the season seem better? Let's smell the royal blue roses, and admire what we are witnessing. Don't wait until 20 years from now to look back with adoration. Perspective; a longer view of the era; let it soak in. Oh, and 9F!

[rotogod00]

"But ok, let's assume I'm wrong. So are you only successful if you win it all? Is it trips to the final four? If so how many times do you have to make it there? And define recently?"

personally, i'd say success at duke is 1 Final Four every 4 seasons and consistently playing on the 2nd weekend of the tournament (4 out of 5 years perhaps)

[dukie8]

Alright we'll use your analogy. My dad had a German class once. Everyone in the course was failing. He took his finals and got a 16. All his friends failed the class and he passed with a D-. The professor decided anyone making over a 15 passed. But he still can't speak a lick of German. If he'd done well througout the year he might have actually learned something.

Your analogy again doesn't apply. If everyone, including your father, were failing all season, then how does that apply to Duke's typical season of winning a lot of regular season games and losing early in the NCAAT? Moreover, your father got a D-. Your analogy would apply to a team that loses most of its games during the regular season and then loses its first game of its conference tournament -- not Duke's situation.

[Scorp4me]

Your analogy again doesn't apply. If everyone, including your father, was failing all season, then how does that apply to Duke's typical season of winning a lot of regular season games and losing early in the NCAAT? Moreover, your father got a D-. Your analogy would apply to a team that loses most of its games during the regular season and then loses its first game of its conference tournament -- not Duke's situation.

You're going to find something wrong with every analogy I fear. But in your class everyone does well, gets good grades, passes their mid terms, attends class, but ultimately your final grade is determined by a 1 question test in which 1 person passes and all others fail. Now maybe that is your perception of the college basketball world and perhaps there are others that share your perception. But even if I'm in the minority that wouldn't make it right. And that wouldn't stop me from going to the Dean and trying to argue the futility of that approach (or coming on a message board and doing the same =)

rotogod I think your post is great. Defining success in a way everyone could agree with would be great...although impossible on this board apparently, lol. Is that based on past Duke success? Obviously different schools would have different definitions of success. I think it'd be fun to apply our definition of success to a school like Michigan St. or vice versa. I think the results would be enligtening as to how haughty some of our beliefs are. And while I think the Duke's/Carolina's/Kentucky's of the world would have similar definitions I'd have to argue that we wouldn't be on the bottom by any means...or on top, at least not today. Ughh!

I fear too many are basing their current version of success on what Duke has accomplished in the past. Not wrong, but dangerous. Duke won back to back titles and did I see someone say 7 final fours in 9 years. Geez! That should never have happened. That's like UCLA's string of championships. And that was what 10...15...20 years ago. Back before Duke began losing players early and before parity established itself in college basketball. I think it's natural to compare teams to previous teams, just important to keep in mind that what happened then shouldn't happen now. Heck based on what Duke HAS accomplished I don't think Carolina would even be considered successful at the moment. They'd still have a ways to go.

Are we successful, I think so. As succesful as Carolina, no and it sucks. But right now who is? Would Kentucky trade with us right now, heck yes. Again perspective, zoom out! I'm not claiming to be completely right. I don't claim one thing as complete success. I just want people to quit claiming one thing as complete failure. As someone else said, you forget to enjoy this great time when you do.

[SupaDave]

This is a really important point that eddiehaskell brought up. ESPN doesn't care about the regular season (and with the exception of Duke fans, who does?). What they care about is the post season, and that doesn't include the ACC Tourney.

If you compare pre-2005 and post-2005, there is a significant difference.

2 Final Fours vs. 0, 5 Sweet Sixteens vs. 3 - these stats make a difference. Remember, earlier in the decade, Duke was THE team. There was no one getting as much national attention or praise from the media. It's like when Team USA won the bronze. The bronze is really good, but it's not the gold. Of course the media is going to criticize.

So ESPN is giving out national championships now?

[SupaDave]

[QUOTE]

I fear too many are basing their current version of success on what Duke has accomplished in the past. Not wrong, but dangerous. Duke won back to back titles and did I see someone say 7 final fours in 9 years. Geez! That should never have happened. That's like UCLA's string of championships. And that was what 10...15...20 years ago. Back before Duke began losing players early and before parity established itself in college basketball. I think it's natural to compare teams to previous teams, just important to keep in mind that what happened then shouldn't happen now. Heck based on what Duke HAS accomplished I don't think Carolina would even be considered successful at the moment. They'd still have a ways to go.

This is a good breakdown actually. There are far too many folks that don't know the names of the coaches before Coach K and the fact that K almost got run out of town. There is a sense of entitlement in this thread that is a bit unnerving.

What will you guys do if we NEVER win another national championship? Will you pick another team? Is that all that defines YOUR fanhood - championships?

You have to learn to enjoy a program in it's entirety.

This has inspired me. I think I'm about to start something new for the boards...

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

This is a good breakdown actually. There are far too many folks that don't know the names of the coaches before Coach K and the fact that K almost got run out of town. There is a sense of entitlement in this thread that is a bit unnerving.

What will you guys do if we NEVER win another national championship? Will you pick another team? Is that all that defines YOUR fanhood - championships?

This has inspired me. I think I'm about to start something new for the boards...

SupaDave, you and RoyWhite seem to be able to see beyond today and Carolina's national championship. The very idea that the only acceptable index of success is a national championship is such a narrow, self defeating view. Defining ourselves or Duke in terms of what Carolina does or doesn't do is limiting and disappointing.

I've loved this year's team throughout the season and celebrate their achievements. The recent Chronicle article about student athletes at Duke makes excellent points about what's really important about these guys and their time at Duke.

[dukie8]

[QUOTE=SupaDave;284173][QUOTE=Scorp4me;284156]I fear too many are basing their current version of success on what Duke has accomplished in the past. Not wrong, but dangerous. Duke won back to back titles and did I see someone say 7 final fours in 9 years. Geez! That should never have happened. That's like UCLA's string of championships. And that was what 10...15...20 years ago. Back before Duke began losing players early and before parity established itself in college basketball. I think it's natural to compare teams to previous teams, just important to keep in mind that what happened then shouldn't happen now. Heck based on what Duke HAS accomplished I don't think Carolina would even be considered successful at the moment. They'd still have a ways to go.

This is a good breakdown actually. There are far too many folks that don't know the names of the coaches before Coach K and the fact that K almost got run out of town. There is a sense of entitlement in this thread that is a bit unnerving.

What will you guys do if we NEVER win another national championship? Will you pick another team? Is that all that defines YOUR fanhood - championships?

This has inspired me. I think I'm about to start something new for the boards...

There's no sense of entitlement on here -- just a recognition that Duke is a far cry from the program it once was. Nobody expects Duke to win a NC every year or even go to the FF every year but it's been 5 straight years of teams getting upset in the NCAAT and, probably even worse, playing its best basketball in December. I don't think that it is that unreasonable to expect more than 5 NCAAT wins over the past 4 years when you have a HOF coach, 15 McD AAs over that time period and a very large basketball budget.

When Duke was upset by Cal in '93, nobody felt that Duke was slipping because it had not -- it went to the finals the next year. Upsets happen even to the very best programs. However, when it is 5 years in a row, I find it shocking that it even is up for discussion.

[roywhite]

[comments from Dukie8]

There's no sense of entitlement on here -- just a recognition that Duke is a far cry from the program it once was. Nobody expects Duke to win a NC every year or even go to the FF every year but it's been 5 straight years of teams getting upset in the NCAAT and, probably even worse, playing its best basketball in December. I don't think that it is that unreasonable to expect more than 5 NCAAT wins over the past 4 years when you have a HOF coach, 15 McD AAs over that time period and a very large basketball budget.

When Duke was upset by Cal in '93, nobody felt that Duke was slipping because it had not -- it went to the finals the next year. Upsets happen even to the very best programs. However, when it is 5 years in a row, I find it shocking that it even is up for discussion.

Well, it seems like a sense of entitlement to me, and a few others, judging by the responses. So we disagree on that point.

Beyond that, I don't see the point of so loudly and repeatedly making this claim. To bring it to our coach's attention? To diminish the efforts of our current players? To darken the outlook of those hopeless kool-aid drinkers (like myself) who actually appreciate 30 wins and an ACC title?

Ah, well...I've said my piece and will refrain from further comment in this thread. Go, Duke!

[SupaDave]

[QUOTE=dukie8;284182][QUOTE=SupaDave;284173]

I fear too many are basing their current version of success on what Duke has accomplished in the past. Not wrong, but dangerous. Duke won back to back titles and did I see someone say 7 final fours in 9 years. Geez! That should never have happened. That's like UCLA's string of championships. And that was what 10...15...20 years ago. Back before Duke began losing players early and before parity established itself in college basketball. I think it's natural to compare teams to previous teams, just important to keep in mind that what happened then shouldn't happen now. Heck based on what Duke HAS accomplished I don't think Carolina would even be considered successful at the moment. They'd still have a ways to go.

There's no sense of entitlement on here -- just a recognition that Duke is a far cry from the program it once was. Nobody expects Duke to win a NC every year or even go to the FF every year but it's been 5 straight years of teams getting upset in the NCAAT and, probably even worse, playing its best basketball in December. I don't think that it is that unreasonable to expect more than 5 NCAAT wins over the past 4 years when you have a HOF coach, 15 McD AAs over that time period and a very large basketball budget.

When Duke was upset by Cal in '93, nobody felt that Duke was slipping because it had not -- it went to the finals the next year. Upsets happen even to the very best programs. However, when it is 5 years in a row, I find it shocking that it even is up for discussion.

Depends on when you were living in this scenario. In 1993 we expected to win big quite frequently.

You're judging this basketball program based on 5 years? Are you serious? Based on your reasoning, Kansas should have scrapped their basketball program a long time ago.

Zoom out please! (I liked that)

[dukie8]

[QUOTE=SupaDave;284196][QUOTE=dukie8;284182]

Depends on when you were living in this scenario. In 1993 we expected to win big quite frequently.

You're judging this basketball program based on 5 years? Are you serious? Based on your reasoning, Kansas should have scrapped their basketball program a long time ago.

Zoom out please! (I liked that)

How does recognizing that Duke has slipped dramatically in the past 5 years become a blanket negative statement on the history of Duke basketball? Are you serious? Based on your reasoning, everything at St John's, which is #7 all time in wins, currently is hunky-dory and no need to be critical of what has gone on there over the past 5 years.

[Saratoga2]

Duke has a HOF coach who won with the Olympic team and who was praised by the all-star pros following that win. Duke has a basketball tradition second to none, good facilities and national exposure. Those would all seem to be reasons that would help us with recruiting.

Duke also has high academic standards and hasn't been recruiting in ways that perhaps Connecticut and Indiana had been accused of. Perhaps those interfere with our ability to attract some of the biggest time recruits, and we have missed on a number of those in the past few years. I am proud that the school has not sunk into the level of recruiting shenanagins that those schools appear to be guilty of.

Perhaps coach K has evolved his attitude regarding recruiting and is willing to go after really big time players who may only stay a year or two. No evidence of that to date, except with the Wall recruitment and perhaps Knight.

Love to see the team be more dominant again and feared in the tournament.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

You're judging this basketball program based on 5 years? Are you serious?

How would you prefer to judge the current state of the program, if not by recent results? Obviously the Duke program is large enough that no 5-10 year period will define it. Bu if you want to have a sense of where we are right now and where we are trending, how we've done in the last several seasons seems as good a benchmark as any.

As a comparison, when we had our midseason swoon this year the season wasn't ruined, but it was clear that something wasn't working as well as it could. K recognized this and made a change (moving Jon to PG, adding Email, etc). If he'd just sat back and said "oh well, we've still got a nice overall record" no change would have been made and we probably wouldn't have gotten better. I hope that K is doing the same thing in a macro sense today. We've had a great 25 years, but the last 5 have been below the standards we've set for ourselves.

Obviously nothing we say or do will have any effect on the program itself since we're not players and coaches. In that light, I guess I can understand why some folks would be happier to just say "Duke is great, Trust in K" and leave it at that. I get that, but I think there's also a place for honest and critical (in the positive, academic sense of the term) discussion of the program. What have we done well? What could we do better? What are other programs doing that we might emulate or react to? Of course that won't change anything, but that's what makes discussion possible and valuable. Without that we'd just be an echo chamber/pep rally.

[SupaDave]

[QUOTE=dukie8;284201][QUOTE=SupaDave;284196]

How does recognizing that Duke has slipped dramatically in the past 5 years become a blanket negative statement on the history of Duke basketball? Are you serious? Based on your reasoning, everything at St John's, which is #7 all time in wins, currently is hunky-dory and no need to be critical of what has gone on there over the past 5 years.

Honestly now, you're comparing US to St. Johns? Wow.

[SupaDave]

How would you prefer to judge the current state of the program, if not by recent results? Obviously the Duke program is large enough that no 5-10 year period will define it. Bu if you want to have a sense of where we are right now and where we are trending, how we've done in the last several seasons seems as good a benchmark as any.

As a comparison, when we had our midseason swoon this year the season wasn't ruined, but it was clear that something wasn't working as well as it could. K recognized this and made a change (moving Jon to PG, adding Email, etc). If he'd just sat back and said "oh well, we've still got a nice overall record" no change would have been made and we probably wouldn't have gotten better. I hope that K is doing the same thing in a macro sense today. We've had a great 25 years, but the last 5 have been below the standards we've set for ourselves.

Obviously nothing we say or do will have any effect on the program itself since we're not players and coaches. In that light, I guess I can understand why some folks would be happier to just say "Duke is great, Trust in K" and leave it at that. I get that, but I think there's also a place for honest and critical (in the positive, academic sense of the term) discussion of the program. What have we done well? What could we do better? What are other programs doing that we might emulate or react to? Of course that won't change anything, but that's what makes discussion possible and valuable. Without that we'd just be an echo chamber/pep rally.

Yes - please look at those 5 years and tell me what we've got. A few #1 rankings, some ACC championships, some Maui Championships, never lost in the Big Ten Challenge, and have made the tourney every year.

Let's see here...

Going back to 2003-2004 we have been in the final four once and the sweet sixteen three times. We have won FIVE ACC championships.

A larger look going back to 1999 shows that even with ONE National Championship we've been LARGELY a sweet sixteen team.

Looks to me that we are right about where we should be - still performing at a high level.

See this is where perspective and FACTS come in instead of some mysterious sharp decline.

WHAT standard based on the FACTS are we not meeting?

[dukie8]

[QUOTE=SupaDave;284211][QUOTE=dukie8;284201]

Honestly now, you're comparing US to St. Johns? Wow.

Where did I compare St John's to Duke? Do tell.