Duke's Demise, Or Not

[RockyMtDevil]

I think we all find it interesting that ESPN specifically is fascinated with the apparent funk Duke BB is in. Here's more perspective on how the perception is vastly over-hyped.

Most Tourny Wins this Decade:

Kansas 26
North Carolina 25
Michigan State 25
Duke 23
Florida 20
UCLA 20
Connecticut 20
Texas 17
Arizona 17
Maryland 16
Illinois 15
Wisconsin 15
Kentucky 14
Memphis 14
Syracuse 13
Oklahoma 13
Pittsburgh 13
Louisville 12
Oklahoma State 11
Xavier, Ohio 11
Gonzaga 11

Most Wins This Decade:
Duke with what 289?

Sweet 16 appearances this decade:
Duke 8; Kansas 7; Michigan St. 6; UCLA 6; North Carolina 5; UConn 5; Syracuse 4; Florida 3; Maryland 3.

Most Final Four Appearances This Decade:
Michigan Stat (4)
UNC (4)
Kansas (3)
UCLA (3)
Florida (3)
Duke (2)
Maryland (2)
Uconn (2)

Duke is holding her own, especially with 7 conference titles to add to this. We should be so lucky to have a "bad decade" like this every decade.

RockyMtDevil

[roywhite]

Why limit this false perception to ESPN?

There are frequent posts on this forum about our "decline" and "failure" to recruit well.

[brevity]

Like your stats. Just one thing...

Xavier, Ohio 11

C'mon. There's only one Xavier at the Division I level. It's not Miami, where you need the (OH) or (FL) to distinguish one from the other.

[gwwilburn]

ESPN is always searching for drama. Just look at how many hours of their viewers' lives they have wasted with talk of TO, Rodger Clemens, A-Rod, Kobe, Isaiah Thomas, Jay Cutler, etc. And though we should all take this with a grain of salt, my grandfather, who graduated from State well longer than half a decade ago, will say that since UNC has a journalism school and Duke and NCSU do not, media organizations like ESPN, the N and O, etc, will always be ready to dig up dirt on any ACC school that's not an ugly color of blue.

[Edouble]

Duke is holding her own, especially with 7 conference titles to add to this. We should be so lucky to have a "bad decade" like this every decade.

RockyMtDevil

In the '90s we played in half of the National Championship games. In the '00s we've played in 1. I hope the next ten years are better than the last ten.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

In the '90s we played in half of the National Championship games. In the '00s we've played in 1. I hope the next ten years are better than the last ten.

Seriously. UNC (and Florida) have as many titles as we have trips past the Sweet 16, even though they went through a nasty coaching change. Gussy it up however you like, 2001 was nice but it's been a steep downhill since then.

[Cameron]

C'mon. There's only one Xavier at the Division I level. It's not Miami, where you need the (OH) or (FL) to distinguish one from the other.

Yeah, what's up with that?

Xavier has been a basketball power (not a top power, but a power nonetheless) for the past decade-and-a-half. The Musketeers have had national players of the year, all-Americans, regional final qualifiers (nearly knocking off our Final Four team in the Elite Eight in '04), countless NBA products (Brian Grant, Tyrone Hill, James Posey, Lionel Chalmers, Ramon Sato, David West, etc.), some of the best coaches in all of the college game (Pete Gillen, Skip Prosser, Thad Matta, Sean Miller, etc.), and on and on.

They have overtaken Cincy as the top basketball school in the Queen City, and, despite losing Sean Miller to Arizona today, the Musketeers will likely have another preseason top ten team coming back next fall.

They play great basketball at Xavier, and are a power. No needs to classify them as Xavier, Ohio.

[ice-9]

Seems like we have this conversation over and over.

YES, relative to other programs, Duke is still an elite school.

YES, relative to its own past, Duke has not performed as well.

Let's recognize these two facts can mutually exist!

[roywhite]

Seriously. UNC (and Florida) have as many titles as we have trips past the Sweet 16, even though they went through a nasty coaching change. Gussy it up however you like, 2001 was nice but it's been a steep downhill since then.

Sorry, I just don't agree with this way of thinking.

Is the NCAA Tournament the sole determinant of program success?

How about great records, consistent national rankings, great players, ACC titles, etc. etc.?

What can be said is that Duke has not performed as well in the NCAA Tournament in the last 5 years as we did from 1986-1994 or from 1998-2004.

But the program has been excellent by any other measure. I hate to see so many fail to recognize that or celebrate that.

[_Gary]

Seriously. UNC (and Florida) have as many titles as we have trips past the Sweet 16, even though they went through a nasty coaching change. Gussy it up however you like, 2001 was nice but it's been a steep downhill since then.

Amen to that. We want to be team we were in the late 80's and the 90's. We don't want to be the one we've been this decade. And certainly not the one we've been over the last 7 years. No way should that be "good enough" for anyone associated with Duke basketball (whether players, coaches, or fans).

Gary

[Coballs]

Sorry, I just don't agree with this way of thinking.

Is the NCAA Tournament the sole determinant of program success?

How about great records, consistent national rankings, great players, ACC titles, etc. etc.?

What can be said is that Duke has not performed as well in the NCAA Tournament in the last 5 years as we did from 1986-1994 or from 1998-2004.

But the program has been excellent by any other measure. I hate to see so many fail to recognize that or celebrate that.

The NCAA Tournament is not the sole determinant of program success, but it is the by far the most important indicator. Final Fours and National Championships are what sets elite programs apart from very good programs. They have been the standard of success for Duke in the K era. Obviously, no program can reach the FF year in and year out. Our run in the late 80s - early 90s was exceptional and rare. But, by Duke standards, the last 5 years should not be considered a successful period. Regular season victories and ACC Championships are extremely important, but I hope and expect that deep tournament runs will continue to be our ultimate goal.

[Duvall]

I can't believe we're going to have to put up with this nonsense for the rest of our lives.

[dukie8]

I think a more telling stat is NCAAT wins over the past 4 years, particularly when Duke's incoming class 4 years ago was supposed to be one of the best ever. I quickly come up with the following:

1 UNC: 14
1 UCLA: 14
3 Memphis: 13
4 Florida: 12
5 Kansas: 11
6 Villanova: 9
7 Mich St: 8
7 Texas: 8
9 Louisville: 7
9 Pittsburgh: 7
9 UConn: 7
9 Georgetown: 7
13 Ohio St: 6
13 Xavier: 6
15 Duke: 5
15 Tennessee: 5
15 Illinois: 5
15 LSU: 5

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

But the program has been excellent by any other measure. I hate to see so many fail to recognize that or celebrate that.

"Excellent" is a relative term. Jyuwono's point that, relative to most programs we're still very good is well-taken. But the fact is that we've been the second (or third) best team in our state for half a decade (i.e. the non-childhood memory of a 16 year old recruit).

FWIW:
Record (ACC)
2001: 35-4 (13-3)
2002: 31-4 (13-3)
2003: 26-7 (11-5)
2004: 31-6 (13-3)
Total: 123-21 (50-14)
Avg: 30.75-5.25 (12.5-3.5)

2005: 27-6 (11-5)
2006: 32-4 (14-2)
2007: 22-11 (8-8)
2008: 28-6 (13-3)
2009: 30-7 (11-5)
Total: 139-34 (57-23)
Avg: 27.8-6.8 (11.4-4.6)

So we've been 3 games worse, and one worse in the ACC on top of our failure in the NCAAs (where, for better or worse, elite programs are measured) in the second half of the decade. We're still a top 10 program, but it's silly to suggest that we're even close to where we were at the beginning of the decade.

[Duvall]

"Excellent" is a relative term. Jyuwono's point that, relative to most programs we're still very good is well-taken. But the fact is that we've been the second (or third) best team in our state for half a decade (.

Third? Come on.

[Scorp4me]

The NCAA Tournament is not the sole determinant of program success, but it is the by far the most important indicator. Final Fours and National Championships are what sets elite programs apart from very good programs. They have been the standard of success for Duke in the K era. Obviously, no program can reach the FF year in and year out. Our run in the late 80s - early 90s was exceptional and rare. But, by Duke standards, the last 5 years should not be considered a successful period. Regular season victories and ACC Championships are extremely important, but I hope and expect that deep tournament runs will continue to be our ultimate goal.

No! No, no, no, no, no! The NCAA Tournament is not the most important indicator of program success. It's a one and one format that is GREAT for the fans and the talking heads, but a poor choice to be an objective indicator of a program's success.

Do I want to win the in the NCAA or even the ACC Tournament, of course I do. I certainly want to win it all. But if you have a consistent record of wins those things will take care of themselves. We could lose every game in a year, get hot at the end and go on a 10-0 run to end the season winning the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't consider it very successful. I'd consider it frakkin lucky.

And for the record beating UNC doesn't make a season successful either. It just means you don't have to listen to their fans the next day. Isn't it sad that for me is the highlight of beating them...not having to listen to their mouths.

[dukie8]

No! No, no, no, no, no! The NCAA Tournament is not the most important indicator of program success. It's a one and one format that is GREAT for the fans and the talking heads, but a poor choice to be an objective indicator of a program's success.

Do I want to win the in the NCAA or even the ACC Tournament, of course I do. I certainly want to win it all. But if you have a consistent record of wins those things will take care of themselves. We could lose every game in a year, get hot at the end and go on a 10-0 run to end the season winning the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't consider it very successful. I'd consider it frakkin lucky.

And for the record beating UNC doesn't make a season successful either. It just means you don't have to listen to their fans the next day. Isn't it sad that for me is the highlight of beating them...not having to listen to their mouths.

Villanova fans would disagree with you about their '85 season and NC St fans would disagree with you about their '83 season.

Also, nobody complains about the NFL playoffs not being a true test of the best teams because of its one-and-done nature. That phenomenon seems to be highly concentrated with college basketball fans trying to justify their teams early exits in the NCAAT.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

Villanova fans would disagree with you about their '85 season and NC St fans would disagree with you about their '83 season.

Truth. Which season do you feel better about: 2006 or 1991?

[Coballs]

No! No, no, no, no, no! The NCAA Tournament is not the most important indicator of program success. It's a one and one format that is GREAT for the fans and the talking heads, but a poor choice to be an objective indicator of a program's success.

It may not be the best indicator of a team's success in any one given year, but tournament results are the best marker of a major program's success over a period of several years.

[roywhite]

"Excellent" is a relative term. Jyuwono's point that, relative to most programs we're still very good is well-taken. But the fact is that we've been the second (or third) best team in our state for half a decade (i.e. the non-childhood memory of a 16 year old recruit).

FWIW:
Record (ACC)
2001: 35-4 (13-3)
2002: 31-4 (13-3)
2003: 26-7 (11-5)
2004: 31-6 (13-3)
Total: 123-21 (50-14)
Avg: 30.75-5.25 (12.5-3.5)

2005: 27-6 (11-5)
2006: 32-4 (14-2)
2007: 22-11 (8-8)
2008: 28-6 (13-3)
2009: 30-7 (11-5)
Total: 139-34 (57-23)
Avg: 27.8-6.8 (11.4-4.6)

So we've been 3 games worse, and one worse in the ACC on top of our failure in the NCAAs (where, for better or worse, elite programs are measured) in the second half of the decade. We're still a top 10 program, but it's silly to suggest that we're even close to where we were at the beginning of the decade.

When you're a top 10 program, is the glass half empty? There are, what 300+ schools playing major college basketball?

Really, do we have some entitlement to being in the top 5 or the top 3 or in the Final Four regularly? Yeah, I get the fact that our neighbor played tonight and we didn't. But all this dwelling on a (relative) decline is foolish.

I've been a Duke fan for over 40 years. Some folks need a little perspective.