Ty Lawson Hits The Casino

[bfree]

I just sent this to the editors and I hope they post it...

The real bad PR move is lying about gambling. I can tell you from experience and from some basic understanding of the math, the odds of this statement being true are minuscule.:

"The only time I lost was in Reno; that's when everybody on the team lost," he said. "It's the only place I lost. The other five or six times I did gamble, I won at least $500."

If you play craps perfectly, and take zero unnecessary risks (pass line only and full 3/4/5 odds, which almost nobody does), the game has a very small house edge, .347%. That is to say for every $1000 risked, the player should get back approximately $996 in winnings. We don't know what amount Ty Lawson was stepping to the table with, but for it to be statistically even remotely likely that he ended 5 of 7 craps sessions +$500 or better, it had to be a ton. Way more than a college student without supplemental income should have on him.

So either he's the luckiest gambler on the face of the earth, lying, or has access to way more money than he should. Nice work Carolina!

On a serious note, lying about gambling losses is one of the first indicators of having a real problem. Gambling addiction is no laughing matter, and if anyone has issues, they should get some help.

[hurleyfor3]

For some of us, $250 at a casino is a rounding error.

I have no reason not to believe him. Having five winning sessions out of seven is not uncommon. Aw heck, I'll throw you the math: If the chance of a winning session is 49%, the probablity of five out of seven is (7 choose 5)(.49^2)(.51^5) = 17.4%. That's higher than JJ Redick's shooting percentage against LSU (16.7%)!

[bfree]

What kind of action do you bring? And do you think it would be appropriate for an unemployed college student? Think about it a second, it is absurd if it is true.

For some of us, $250 at a casino is a rounding error.

I have no reason not to believe him. Having five winning sessions out of seven is not uncommon.

[hurleyfor3]

What kind of action do you bring? And do you think it would be appropriate for an unemployed college student? Think about it a second, it is absurd if it is true.

I'm not going to speculate on Ty's financial situation. However, it is not unusual to double or triple your money in a given session. Winning $250 on, say, a $200-300 drop is a nice session, but by no means unbelievable, and I had more money than that in college. (If you must know, a couple times last weekend I had a couple sessions with similar percentage wins.) In fact, lacking further evidence I'd say he exhibits good control and risk management.

[DukiesPA]

I just sent this to the editors and I hope they post it...

The real bad PR move is lying about gambling. I can tell you from experience and from some basic understanding of the math, the odds of this statement being true are minuscule.:

"The only time I lost was in Reno; that's when everybody on the team lost," he said. "It's the only place I lost. The other five or six times I did gamble, I won at least $500."

If you play craps perfectly, and take zero unnecessary risks (pass line only and full 3/4/5 odds, which almost nobody does), the game has a very small house edge, .347%. That is to say for every $1000 risked, the player should get back approximately $996 in winnings. We don't know what amount Ty Lawson was stepping to the table with, but for it to be statistically even remotely likely that he ended 5 of 7 craps sessions +$500 or better, it had to be a ton. Way more than a college student without supplemental income should have on him.

So either he's the luckiest gambler on the face of the earth, lying, or has access to way more money than he should. Nice work Carolina!

On a serious note, lying about gambling losses is one of the first indicators of having a real problem. Gambling addiction is no laughing matter, and if anyone has issues, they should get some help.

Wow, this statement is amazing. From the simple story about a kid winning some money gambling you've gone and inferred that Carolina boosters are paying for him to gamble or he's got a serious gambling problem and is lying about everything -- those are some pretty bold statements to make. I understand it's Carolina and we're all a little pissed about them being there while we're not, but c'mon. If everything goes by the law of averages there's absolutely no reason anyone should ever gamble because they'll only lose money -- the fact that he's won more than he's lost based off a small sample size doesn't mean a thing. If you play smart and wait for hot rollers it can certainly be done.

The guy is 21 years old and he went to a casino and rolled some dice and won some money. According to the article it was on Wed night, so three days before their game. If Duke were there I'd actually like the fact they went out and blew off some steam to get away from all of the pressure before getting down to business.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

I'm glad to see it when a young man is out there enjoying being young and living while experiencing a new city instead of holed up in his hotel room watching the tube like he can on any other night of the week. It's important for some players depending on who you are to have some fun and take your mind off all of the pressure. He didn't do anything illegal and as far as we know he didn't drink down a case of Miller High Life in the process. To get a little off topic, that's the difference in atmosphere UNC offers in comparison to Duke which makes UNC more attractive to certain recruits.

If it was the UNC soccer team or NC State swim team, no one would give 2 craps.
Then again, should Lawson have commented to the press about what he was doing? No, he brought all this upon himself. Him and his staff acting surprised at the reactions of some seems to me more foolish than the act itself.

[cspan37421]

bfree, you bring up a good point, but keep in mind that Ty might have misspoken. Recall that the Beardstown Ladies sold a bunch of books on the flawed premise that investments subsequent to the original principal amount counted as investment return. Perhaps Ty "spent" $480 to "win" $500 - and he doesn't know (or notice) the difference between that and coming out $500 ahead.

hurleyfor3, it's always good to see probability in the public discourse! My late probability prof, Scoville, would be proud (though no one would be able to tell).

[weezie]

Being from Detroit, I can't imagine a worse situation than having your team wandering the streets of the D until 1:30 am. Ole' Roy must not be worried, though.

Yeah, maybe tonight Ty and his mates should consider a trip over to Canada
to take in the Windsor Ballet!

[bjornolf]

I have a scarier conspiracy theory. <Inserting tongue in cheek>

What if the casinos that he won in 5 out of 7 times are owned by Carolina boosters or alums? What if they saw him on the security cameras and slipped him loaded dice? What a GENIUS way to slip a player cash without worrying about the NCAA finding out!

<removing tongue from cheek> That was fun!

[dukejunkie]

Being from Detroit, I can't imagine a worse situation than having your team wandering the streets of the D until 1:30 am. Ole' Roy must not be worried, though. I know the Spartans are staying out in the burbs to avoid this and other distractions as much as possible. Guess the Heels are downtown.

dukemsu

It may be questionable to have the players out until 1:30. However, if they're allowed a little freedom at night in Detroit, I'd argue they're probably safer in one of the casinos. From what I hear, they have some serious security there. I guess they need it.

[jipops]

I don't think this is that big of a deal. But let's face it, if this were a Duke player at a casino - it would be a HUGE deal to everyone else.

[killerleft]

I hope he DID win big. Seeing a Tar Heel using up his good fortune a little early suits me just fine.

[Misunderestimated]

I don't think this is that big of a deal. But let's face it, if this were a Duke player at a casino - it would be a HUGE deal to everyone else.

Agreed. Could you imagine the backlash if it had been Paulus or JJ who made the gambling comment to the reporter(s)?

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

Mr. Lawson and the rest of you Tar Heels...please gamble, drink, stay up late, do all sorts of bad things to your body (smoke, eat bad greasy food, etc.). WE here should welcome all that. I don't think this shows a respect for Villanova. I think Lawson and his mates think this will be a relatively easy game.

I don't want to speculate about the outcome of Saturday's game (who really knows until they play), but I will say this: The master of choking under pressure was Dean Smith and I think Dean has taught Roy well. Before Coach K, ACC was often referred to meaning Another Carolina Choke!

The Wildcats were a bad call away from knocking off the Heels when UNC won its title a few years ago.

I think the Wildcats will be more prepared for UNC than people are giving them credit for either.

Get Lawson and/or Hansborough in foul trouble and make it a close game late into the second half and? Well, Carolina has not played a close game recently with the Toe in the line-up. Let's see what happens.

We know first hand the defensive pressure that Villanova can provide.

GO DUKE!

[tendev]

I knew I would see this thread. If gambling is legal and Lawson is legally gambling then why does this matter? And so he can't gamble or drink a beer or whatever any other 21- year old does because he is a well-known basketball player on a well-known team.

[AnimalFriendly]

Hi,

The Wildcats were a bad call away from knocking off the Heels when UNC won its title a few years ago.

GO DUKE!

No, actually they were not. Carolina was up by 3, yes 3, points when the so-called "bad" travel call was made. Had Villanova's basket counted, Carolina would still have had a one point lead AND the ball with no more than 7 seconds left, in which case they most likely still would have won.

[moonpie23]

I knew I would see this thread. If gambling is legal and Lawson is legally gambling then why does this matter? And so he can't gamble or drink a beer or whatever any other 21- year old does because he is a well-known basketball player on a well-known team.

well, he IS a well-known under-age drinker and driver...

[Biscuit]

Roy's response:

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow...ve-gambled-too

I don't care what shade of blue you favor, that's pretty funny, unless of course you're a huge fan of The Cosby Show.

[cspan37421]

I knew I would see this thread. If gambling is legal and Lawson is legally gambling then why does this matter?

Do you really not know any reason why sports leagues look very dimly on their players, coaches, or referees gambling (and many prohibit it outright)? You really can't think of why it could matter?

Here's a hint. Suppose instead of winning, he loses - big. Hmmm, how to make up those losses... What thing of value could he provide or do to make up for the loss ... Hmmm....

[BlueDvl817]

...but I couldn't agree more with Ol' Roy on this one. Come on, they got in on Wednesday night and they have three days before they have to play. Instead of pacing around in the room that night getting worked up over a game three nights away, why not relax a little bit? If gambling is what it takes, then so be it, it's legal, he was supervised by someone connected with the team, and I really doubt he's stupid enough to really get himself deep in the hole.

I understand some posters' points about it simply not being smart for PR reasons, but honestly some of you seem to want to attack anyone wearing Carolina blue for any reason. He's got plenty of time to prepare for the game, and I highly doubt any media attention over this is going to distract Ty, Roy, or any of the others from the real reason they came to Detroit. Uh, I need to take a shower, I can't believe I just defended a Tar Heel.