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  1. #81
    Of course it's semi-selfish of me to hope G returns, but there's a perfectly good argument, with several elements to it, that says it's also in G's enlightened self-interest to return.

    In several ways, his very good, but by no means "brilliant" game reminds me of Dahntay Jones. Powerful wing athletes, with G's shot developing into Kobe-like hang time and softness. His dunks and Kobe-like sweet jumper are brilliant, but not his overall game. No way. By time Dahntay left, he was a fierce defender, more consistent than G here at end of G's jr yr. The thing that the 2 have most in common, imo, is a weak handle. G, like DJ, is so strong that often he can bruise by his man for a dunk. And he's developing a cross-over, but it's wildly inconsistent, and sometimes leads to turnover, off his own knee.

    It's taken Dahntay a few years, but he's found a role on a solid team, at maybe 15-18 minutes per game, perhaps more next year. I'd guess G might not make a big impact for a couple of years, for his game is incomplete. But I'd guess he could certainly be drafted this year in first round, maybe 15-20? Late lottery, maybe, but I'd be a little surprised.

    Honestly, right now, there must be a few NBA scouts who have a lot more confidence is Ellington's sweet, and consistent, jumper, than G's overall game. They might both return, might both leave.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    In several ways, his very good, but by no means "brilliant" game reminds me of Dahntay Jones. Powerful wing athletes, with G's shot developing into Kobe-like hang time and softness. His dunks and Kobe-like sweet jumper are brilliant, but not his overall game. No way. By time Dahntay left, he was a fierce defender, more consistent than G here at end of G's jr yr. The thing that the 2 have most in common, imo, is a weak handle. G, like DJ, is so strong that often he can bruise by his man for a dunk. And he's developing a cross-over, but it's wildly inconsistent, and sometimes leads to turnover, off his own knee.
    Concur... I was thinking along similar lines. For G to really make an impact in the pro game, he's going to have to be able to really break down players off the dribble and explode to the basket with more frequency. The bottom line on Henderson is that he's a nice player with some athleticism (but not exceptional by NBA standards) who does a lot of things well but nothing really great.

    I think the nightmare scenario for him is that he is drafted much too early with inflated expectations, and with a lack of overall polish, is never is able to establish himself among a glut of very similar players (see Avery, William).

    I'm hard-pressed to remember many players who stayed an extra year and whose draft stock slid... on the other hand, you have to wonder where, say Carlos Boozer or Corey Maggette are drafted after one more year??

    Random thoughts, entirely...

  3. #83
    "Not to nitpick, but G has been here 3 years."

    yeah, my bad.

    quick, but not accurate fingers.

  4. #84
    Join Date
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by turnandburn55 View Post
    I'm hard-pressed to remember many players who stayed an extra year and whose draft stock slid... on the other hand, you have to wonder where, say Carlos Boozer or Corey Maggette are drafted after one more year??
    I can think of a number of players whose stock slid by staying too long, including: Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, and Terrence Morris. That's just off the top of my head.

    It can work both ways. For guys who are going to be drafted high based on potential, sticking around will hurt their stock. For guys who lack "upside", sticking around may improve their stock or have no effect.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I can think of a number of players whose stock slid by staying too long, including: Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, and Terrence Morris. That's just off the top of my head.

    It can work both ways. For guys who are going to be drafted high based on potential, sticking around will hurt their stock. For guys who lack "upside", sticking around may improve their stock or have no effect.
    Another guy is Joakim Noah. He was a prospective number 1 pick and then slid down to 9th. However, he stayed and won another championship at Florida...

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I can think of a number of players whose stock slid by staying too long, including: Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, and Terrence Morris. That's just off the top of my head.

    It can work both ways. For guys who are going to be drafted high based on potential, sticking around will hurt their stock. For guys who lack "upside", sticking around may improve their stock or have no effect.
    Morris and McRoberts were the first that came to mind... Chris Porter of Auburn as well.

    I would submit that the guys who are most likely to see their draft stock sink are probably those who are unknown quantities or have had a single breakout season-- very likely to have their weaknesses exposed by another season of college bball.

    I'd say Henderson is probably in no-man's land here... he's a known quantity as a 3rd year starter on a high-profile team but also with enough rough edges to actually benefit from another year.

    Again, random thoughts for thought. Obviously I'd rather he stay and not go...

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Ellington? Really?

    Yes, he has a consistent Jumper. He along with Danny Green, also saw their numbers flatline when they weren't playing alongside the PG who is, by a wide margin, the best traditional PG in college hoops.

    If Ellington wants to know what his NBA career will look like, he needs to look at one JJ Reddick.

    Ellington is a consistent shooter. He is also a middling athlete. Basically, he is JJ Reddick with less range and slightly more athleticism. Like JJ, he will have trouble getting off that shot in the pros. He will have an easier time getting a shot than JJ, but he won't hit as many either.

    And Gerald has ELITE athleticism. He can run and jump like very few people. He needs to go left more, and could stand more range on his jumper, but no one is PERFECT in the NBA.

    In private workouts, Gerald will have NBA scouts drooling. With a pass first PG and a legitimate post to occupy defenders, he will be huge, eventually. Will he dominate from Day 1? No. Nor did Kobe, Bron, or D-Wade (who had a few college years under his belt).

    D-Wade is actually a great model for Hendo. Similiar size and game, with Hendo being more explosive and D-Wade being more skilled. Only Hendo can learn skills, and he already plays better D and rebounds better.

    I want him to stay. And that last game did him no favors. It also may be forgotten as soon as he sticks his elbow down the rim in a workout.

    Please stay, but Hendo has earned his shot at the pros.

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    Ellington? Really?

    Yes, he has a consistent Jumper. He along with Danny Green, also saw their numbers flatline when they weren't playing alongside the PG who is, by a wide margin, the best traditional PG in college hoops.
    You might want to check your facts. Actually, Ellington's numbers got substantially BETTER in the three games without Lawson. He had 16 against VT, 24 against FSU, and 25 against Radford, while shooting 25-43 from the field.

    But otherwise, I mostly agree. Ellington isn't the NBA prospect that Henderson is. I'm not as convinced that Henderson will be a star though. His lack of size will present a problem, as will his difficulties with ballhandling (though hopefully that will improve). He's a top-tier athlete without question, but he's not going to be able to out athlete people in the NBA.

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    D-Wade is actually a great model for Hendo. Similiar size and game, with Hendo being more explosive and D-Wade being more skilled. Only Hendo can learn skills, and he already plays better D and rebounds better.
    Based on this, Gerald should be taken #1. I have no idea why you think Gerald rebounds or plays better D than Wade right now. Wade was better than Gerald in college, and since then his career has taken off to the point that he is playing at a historically great level. It's not fair to make this comparison at all.

    G is a good NBA prospect, but I don't see stardom in his future. He is a terrific athlete and his defense has improved and become a strength. But offensively, he isn't multidimensional enough. He needs to continue improving on his passing and, for a guard, he is not a good ball handler. Also, though a great leaper and strong, he isn't particularly quick at changing directions.

    I think he will wind up being a solid NBA starter/6th man who puts up 10-14 ppg, which is in line with being a mid to late lottery pick.

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    D-Wade is actually a great model for Hendo. Similiar size and game, with Hendo being more explosive and D-Wade being more skilled. Only Hendo can learn skills, and he already plays better D and rebounds better.
    I'm guessing you didn't see Wade play in college. If you did, I have trouble seeing how you could conclude that there's anything Henderson does discernably better than Wade did in college. Wade was a better rebounder, better scorer, better ballhandler, stronger, and a better passer. They were similar defensively, and similar as shooters. Henderson MAY be a better leaper, but leaping loses a lot of its value without the other gifts.

    Wade is the absolute best-case scenario for Henderson, but Henderson is a far cry from that level. No offense intended to Henderson, but Wade was simply a ridiculous player in college (and now in the NBA). Henderson had a really nice stretch of about 15 games or so. But Wade put up performances like Henderson's (and better) for two full years.

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyFan View Post
    Based on this, Gerald should be taken #1. I have no idea why you think Gerald rebounds or plays better D than Wade right now. Wade was better than Gerald in college, and since then his career has taken off to the point that he is playing at a historically great level. It's not fair to make this comparison at all.

    G is a good NBA prospect, but I don't see stardom in his future. He is a terrific athlete and his defense has improved and become a strength. But offensively, he isn't multidimensional enough. He needs to continue improving on his passing and, for a guard, he is not a good ball handler. Also, though a great leaper and strong, he isn't particularly quick at changing directions.

    I think he will wind up being a solid NBA starter/6th man who puts up 10-14 ppg, which is in line with being a mid to late lottery pick.
    Sorry for saying basically the same thing immediately following you, but I agree with your assessment. Comparing Henderson to Wade isn't fair to Henderson.

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by turnandburn55 View Post
    ... on the other hand, you have to wonder where, say Carlos Boozer or Corey Maggette are drafted after one more year??
    They both ended up doing OK for themselves.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    In private workouts, Gerald will have NBA scouts drooling. With a pass first PG and a legitimate post to occupy defenders, he will be huge, eventually. Will he dominate from Day 1? No. Nor did Kobe, Bron, or D-Wade (who had a few college years under his belt).
    As others have said, G and Wade have completely different types of game. The issue with Kobe and Lebron is that they are 2 or 3 inches taller than G which makes a huge difference. His NBA ceiling is not nearly as high as theirs due to that height difference (and possibly other things as well).

    A player who G reminds me of in some ways is Jeff Trepagnier, who played at USC from 1997 to 2001. In his junior year, Trepagnier, who was a remarkable athlete, scored 15.9 ppg, with 6.6 rebs per game and 2.1 assists, 3.1 steals and 1.4 blocks, numbers which compare favorably with Gerald's this year. His senior year he had injury issues and was suspended for some period of time for a recruting violation or some such, but he finished the year strong. He was drafted in the 2nd round by Cleveland.

    According to Wikipedia: "At 6'4", Trepagnier was considered by some scouts to be undersized for the NBA shooting guard position, his natural spot. In three seasons for the Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets, Trepagnier averaged 2.8 points per game."

    Because of his height and inability to play point in the pros, unless G improves from where he is, his wiki page is in danger of looking like Trepagnier's. Whether this suggests he should go out now and get picked in the middle of the first round -- so he can at least collect one large, guaranteed contract -- or whether it suggests he should stay another year and improve his game beyond Trepagnier's (if he can) is difficult to say.

  14. #94

    Size and comparative ability

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    As others have said, G and Wade have completely different types of game. The issue with Kobe and Lebron is that they are 2 or 3 inches taller than G which makes a huge difference. His NBA ceiling is not nearly as high as theirs due to that height difference (and possibly other things as well).

    A player who G reminds me of in some ways is Jeff Trepagnier, who played at USC from 1997 to 2001. In his junior year, Trepagnier, who was a remarkable athlete, scored 15.9 ppg, with 6.6 rebs per game and 2.1 assists, 3.1 steals and 1.4 blocks, numbers which compare favorably with Gerald's this year. His senior year he had injury issues and was suspended for some period of time for a recruting violation or some such, but he finished the year strong. He was drafted in the 2nd round by Cleveland.

    According to Wikipedia: "At 6'4", Trepagnier was considered by some scouts to be undersized for the NBA shooting guard position, his natural spot. In three seasons for the Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets, Trepagnier averaged 2.8 points per game."

    Because of his height and inability to play point in the pros, unless G improves from where he is, his wiki page is in danger of looking like Trepagnier's. Whether this suggests he should go out now and get picked in the middle of the first round -- so he can at least collect one large, guaranteed contract -- or whether it suggests he should stay another year and improve his game beyond Trepagnier's (if he can) is difficult to say.
    I think Henderson is a shade under 6'4" in stocking feet and isn't freakishly long. He would be 4 inches shorter than LeBron and 3 inches shorter than Kobe. Lebron is pushing 270 pounds by his own estimate which Kobe has a finer build. Both handle the ball better than Gerald, but one would suppose that he could improve that in the NBA.

    I listed 4 college players in an earlier response, who I feel would be drafted into the NBA ahead of Gerald. After watching the Pitt/Villanova game, I can see 3 others who are more NBA ready. Blair and Young of Pitt and Cunningham of Villanova. If you look at all the major teams, it is likely that there are many others who can compete for positions.

    I see the smartest approach for Henderson, if he is truly undecided, is to go to the camp but don't sign with an agent. Maybe his athletic skills will be highly valued, however, his downsides, which others have mentioned in this thread may push him down in the first round or even into the second.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Wade is the absolute best-case scenario for Henderson, but Henderson is a far cry from that level.
    I agree with this and I agree with Diddy. I think if G fully develops his skills, Wade is the paradigm for the kind of the player he might eventually be.

    One thing I would point out is that G has developed very slowly as a basketball player, much more slowly than Wade, and for that reason I think it would be a mistake to say that we know what his ceiling is yet.

    Anyone who is a scratch golfer has ridiculously good hand-eye coordination. And we have seen that G is already a ridiculous athlete.

    There is no reason that someone with G's coordination can't develop into an ankle-breaker handling the ball. But he is nowhere, nowhere near that today.

    Also his shot has improved greatly from his freshman year, but looking at the mechanics on his shot I don't think he is near what he is capable of. I love the height he gets on his shot and his followthrough. I think he can ultimately be a better shooter than D-Wade.

    And maybe what he still lacks most is court vision and creating opportunities for other players on the floor. He needs to develop into the kind of player that if you double team him, he will burn you with the open man. And he could do so much more than just drive and kick.

    So yes, he has a long way to go. But he's building himself very slowly, and I don't think we yet know what his ceiling is.

  16. #96
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Yes, Wade had better numbers that G in college. Who were his teammates again?

    What would G's numbers have looked like this year if he were allowed to ignore the team concept a la Wade during his last years in College.

    And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.

    And really, most of his hype and rep still stem from one of the best playoff runs a player has ever had. His finals performance was a thing of beauty. Since then he has put up good numbers on a really bad team. When he wasn't hurt.

    Wade still isn't a great three point threat.

    Are you all saying that in two to three years there is no way G can be that good?

    This past year, towards the end, teams keyed on Gerald in way that will never happen in the pros. Teams basically left E-will alone and completely ignored whatever post we had in. Whenever G touched the ball 2-3 gus went on high alert and all shifted to take away driving lanes.

    In the pros, if you try that, the other guys will eat you alive.

    We all know about Duke's big three. If we are honest, it was the ONLY three. No one else on our team was dangerous. Nolan was capable, but so inconsistent that it was worth the risk.

    Jon and Kyle, skilled, tenacious, and intetelligent though they were, could be effectively guarded by a single defender. Not shut down mind you, but one guy on an island could keep them from going off.

    Not so with Gerald. His defender always got help from Mid January on.

    And G did it with no Big to draw attention or sheild off a post Defender. He did it with no PG to orchestrate the O or set him up. With Lawson for a PG, G would have had 25 plus a game and been the most dangerous player in the ACC.

    I stand by the Wade thing. Similiar bodies, similiar games. Sure, G needs refinement. If he was close to Wade now, we would still be playing. If he had some help. But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.

    This paper thin, and patently obvious and self serving, attempt to denigrate G's abilities to keep him at Duke is just sad.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    Yes, Wade had better numbers that G in college. Who were his teammates again?

    What would G's numbers have looked like this year if he were allowed to ignore the team concept a la Wade during his last years in College.

    And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.

    And really, most of his hype and rep still stem from one of the best playoff runs a player has ever had. His finals performance was a thing of beauty. Since then he has put up good numbers on a really bad team. When he wasn't hurt.

    Wade still isn't a great three point threat.

    Are you all saying that in two to three years there is no way G can be that good?

    This past year, towards the end, teams keyed on Gerald in way that will never happen in the pros. Teams basically left E-will alone and completely ignored whatever post we had in. Whenever G touched the ball 2-3 gus went on high alert and all shifted to take away driving lanes.

    In the pros, if you try that, the other guys will eat you alive.

    We all know about Duke's big three. If we are honest, it was the ONLY three. No one else on our team was dangerous. Nolan was capable, but so inconsistent that it was worth the risk.

    Jon and Kyle, skilled, tenacious, and intetelligent though they were, could be effectively guarded by a single defender. Not shut down mind you, but one guy on an island could keep them from going off.

    Not so with Gerald. His defender always got help from Mid January on.

    And G did it with no Big to draw attention or sheild off a post Defender. He did it with no PG to orchestrate the O or set him up. With Lawson for a PG, G would have had 25 plus a game and been the most dangerous player in the ACC.

    I stand by the Wade thing. Similiar bodies, similiar games. Sure, G needs refinement. If he was close to Wade now, we would still be playing. If he had some help. But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.

    This paper thin, and patently obvious and self serving, attempt to denigrate G's abilities to keep him at Duke is just sad.
    First, Wade never "ignored the team concept."

    Here is some background info about Dwyane Wade.

    He led his Marquette team, which you bashed, to the Final Four. There were FOUR guys on that team that averaged double figure scoring. On the way to the Final Four, Wade dropped 29 pts, 11 reb, and 11 assists against #1 seeded Kentucky... that was the 3rd triple-double in NCAA Tournament history. Wade averaged 21.6 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.6 assists, and 2.1 steals per game on a Final Four basketball team. He also blocked 51 shots on the year (insane number for a 6'4" guard).

    In his first year in the NBA, Wade averaged 16 pts, 4 reb, and 4.5 assists per game... really impressive. In his second year, an amazing 24 points, 5.2 reb, and 6.8 assists... so he definitely didn't take a "few years to adapt to the league."

    D-Wade is no slouch.

    And no, Gerald is nowhere near where Dwyane Wade was when he ended his career. Maybe if G comes back next year, he can have a similar season to what Dwyane did.

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    If I were G, I'd declare, not hire an agent, and get a very real assessment of, not only where I stood in the draft, but also what pro scouts would like to see improved upon if I were to go back to college another year. Whether or not to return is an important career decision for him, and I'm sure he'll get good advice about what to do.

    I hope he comes back. Despite the critiquing that's been done about his game (and yes, as a junior in college his game is not perfect), I absolutely love watching the guy play in a Duke uniform. He's a phenomenal athlete. Every game, you can rely on him making breathtaking plays, whether a powerful rebound, a nasty block, or an explosive throw-down dunk. He's improved remarkably from last year to this, and I would love to see how his game improves next year as well. Finally, like the rest of our guys, he carries himself with class. He's a guy you can always be proud to have represent your school.

  19. #99

    Thank you...

    Quote Originally Posted by FireOgilvie View Post
    First, Wade never "ignored the team concept."

    Here is some background info about Dwyane Wade.

    He led his Marquette team, which you bashed, to the Final Four. There were FOUR guys on that team that averaged double figure scoring. On the way to the Final Four, Wade dropped 29 pts, 11 reb, and 11 assists against #1 seeded Kentucky... that was the 3rd triple-double in NCAA Tournament history. Wade averaged 21.6 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.6 assists, and 2.1 steals per game on a Final Four basketball team. He also blocked 51 shots on the year (insane number for a 6'4" guard).

    In his first year in the NBA, Wade averaged 16 pts, 4 reb, and 4.5 assists per game... really impressive. In his second year, an amazing 24 points, 5.2 reb, and 6.8 assists... so he definitely didn't take a "few years to adapt to the league."

    D-Wade is no slouch.

    And no, Gerald is nowhere near where Dwyane Wade was when he ended his career. Maybe if G comes back next year, he can have a similar season to what Dwyane did.
    and amen. Look, I like G's game, but don't start putting him in the same sentence with DWade and (are you FREAKING serious?) Kobe and Lebron. Not yet, at least.

  20. #100
    Honestly, I can't tell if you are being serious or not. But I will respond anyway to some points:

    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.
    Wade was taken 5th in the draft, with three of the players before him being considered great prospects, any of whom would be the #1 pick this year. Yes, he has exceeded expectations, but he didn't come out of nowhere. And most players take a few years to adapt, so I'm not sure what your point is.

    This past year, towards the end, teams keyed on Gerald in way that will never happen in the pros. Teams basically left E-will alone and completely ignored whatever post we had in. Whenever G touched the ball 2-3 gus went on high alert and all shifted to take away driving lanes.
    So what kind of defenses do you think Wade, who was apparently selfish and played with poor quality teammates in college, faced? They made him struggle so much that he shot above 50% from the field his last year.

    With Lawson for a PG, G would have had 25 plus a game and been the most dangerous player in the ACC.
    No he wouldn't.

    But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.
    How can you make this claim what it's obvious you didn't watch Wade in college? It's not just work that put Wade where he is today. Hard work is the easy part.

    Your problem is you are making basic errors in logic. You can't assume that if two players start at the same point (which Wade and G didn't), then the career trajectory of the second player will equal that of the first. Should we expect all tweener guards who can dribble and shoot but are not great collegians, to be only "hard work" away from being the next Gilbert Arenas? Why aren't you picking Dahntay Jones, who is a much more valid comparison for G?

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