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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.
    And how would going to the NBA now prevent Henderson from getting a degree? Could he not finish his degree in the summer like many before him have done in the past? I don't see the "he can get a degree" argument as being relevant.

    If you want to make the argument that he can graduate with his class, that's a different story. It's a much less powerful argument, but at least it's logically sound.

  2. #42
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    Feb 2007
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    The City of Brotherly Love except when it's cold.

    Post

    Quote Originally Posted by KandG View Post
    The only thing that might knock him down is teams' questions about his height (which wouldn't change significantly from this year to next year) or his ballhandling and general offensive game -- his defense is already considered advanced.
    I suspect Gerald will have access to NBA information through his father that, like Mike Dunleavy, will allow him to know his draft position very precisely. He could very well receive advice that another year in college working on his ability to create from the perimeter, handle the ball, and to go left would improve his stock. Without more development in these areas, he is more limited by his size. If a team is willing take a chance, however, as GS did with Mike, it's hard to imagine Gerald will stay.

    And there's always the PGA to consider.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

    I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?
    Would Jason Williams not have been able to return to Duke and pick up his studies if he had left after his sophomore year and gotten injured? Wouldn't the insurance have covered the tuition? I am not cracking wise but actually asking this question.

    I don't see how Henderson leaving after his junior year means he could not eventually finish the degree.

  4. #44
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    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC

    degree

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    And how would going to the NBA now prevent Henderson from getting a degree?
    Yes, absolutely he could still get a degree if he leaves early. My original point was to counter the notion that he should leave for fear of injury. I think the whole injury angle gets kind of overblown sometimes. Perhaps a larger concern should be that he stays and doesn't show significant improvement, or his weaknesses are exposed (i.e. Hansbrough).

    Again, all of this is just speculation that I'm making because I'm bored and am not ready for basketball to be over with 8-(

  5. #45
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    Feb 2007
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    Baltimore
    Quote Originally Posted by bluebear View Post
    I agree..No one should fault him or be surprised if he leaves despite the game yesterday. He has the potential to be a great pro..
    If we were to lose only one of GH or KS, Duke is better off losing G. Henderson may be a better player at this point but losing KS would make us even more one dimensional.
    I hope we don't lose either..
    oh...I wouldn't fault him at all, I'd jump onto that opportunity like a ...

    the metaphor that immediately came to mind would earn me a warning.

    However, just because I don't fault him, doesn't mean I have to be happy about it.
    Duke '03
    Tent 1 '99/'00

  6. #46
    Let's make one thing clear about the whole draft thing. If G is a 1st rounder because its a weak draft, then he is a late 1st rounder and could slide into the 2nd round. I don't think anyone here believes that so, we can assume its G's athleticism and potential that have him as a 1st rounder and thus would be a 1st rounder next year as well. If he goes higher this year because of the weak draft, he can also go higher next year by having a great senior season and tourney, finsihing AA and all that. Yes he can get injured, but he can also get injured during pre draft work outs too. Also an asteroid can hit the Earth and kill everyone. Lets look at the reasons for going vs staying.

    *G goes pro because:
    1. He's a guaranteed 1st rounder in a weak draft
    2. he feels his college game has reached its potential
    3. He feels he's at the age to start a pro career (not unreasonable at all)
    4. He doesn't care about being picked by a team that needs him versus being picked best available and rides the bench. As long as he gets paid.
    5. He's worried about injury
    6. He doesn't honestly see Duke making a championship run (given that alot would ride on who we could recruit for PG, that could be true).
    7. 3 years of college is enough...more than enough.

    *G stays because
    1. He's a guaranteed first rounder next year, why rush?
    2. No burden of trying to lift the family out of the po house
    3. He loves college
    4. He thinks Duke has a legit shot at a national title and thats important to him
    5. He wants a shot at being the big dog, he will be a preseason AA and K will taylor the offense for him. It'll be a 94 redux.
    6. He wants to potentially raise his stock by perfomance and thus drafted by need, not best available.
    7. No hurry to play for LAC or GS...thats like an 80 day trip to the dentist.
    8. H can improve his game substantially before going to the next level.


    I'm not saying one trumps the other, those are just the reasons I come up with. I think G is really considering all factors. I'll hate it if he leaves, but I sure as heck won't be mad at him. He'll always be a Blue Devil.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wilmington NC

    What about the economic future of the NBA?

    Like the rest of you, I have no idea what G is going to do, and trust that he will weigh all factors carefully.

    I'm more interested in how the financial state of the NBA may affect the decisions of those intelligent few (like G) who have the ability to make a draft choice given the writing on the wall -- that the salary cap is coming down, that several NBA teams are in serious financial trouble, and that a lockout is a distinct possibility in the near future.

    If it were me, I'd try to lock in a salary now. Next year, the same talent could be worth less cash.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Salty Breezes View Post
    Like the rest of you, I have no idea what G is going to do, and trust that he will weigh all factors carefully.

    I'm more interested in how the financial state of the NBA may affect the decisions of those intelligent few (like G) who have the ability to make a draft choice given the writing on the wall -- that the salary cap is coming down, that several NBA teams are in serious financial trouble, and that a lockout is a distinct possibility in the near future.

    If it were me, I'd try to lock in a salary now. Next year, the same talent could be worth less cash.

    Actually there is a potential lock out looming in 2011. That may be the biggest factor in G's decision.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Texas/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by RelativeWays View Post
    Actually there is a potential lock out looming in 2011. That may be the biggest factor in G's decision.
    I really don't buy the lockout talk.

    My guess is that G declares. If he receives a top 10 pick guarantee from a team then he will stay. If not, I think his friendship with Jon will bring him back for another year. I don't know if people realize how ridiculously close those two are.

  10. #50

    Reality

    Quote Originally Posted by RelativeWays View Post
    Let's make one thing clear about the whole draft thing. If G is a 1st rounder because its a weak draft, then he is a late 1st rounder and could slide into the 2nd round. I don't think anyone here believes that so, we can assume its G's athleticism and potential that have him as a 1st rounder and thus would be a 1st rounder next year as well. If he goes higher this year because of the weak draft, he can also go higher next year by having a great senior season and tourney, finsihing AA and all that. Yes he can get injured, but he can also get injured during pre draft work outs too. Also an asteroid can hit the Earth and kill everyone. Lets look at the reasons for going vs staying.

    *G goes pro because:
    1. He's a guaranteed 1st rounder in a weak draft
    2. he feels his college game has reached its potential
    3. He feels he's at the age to start a pro career (not unreasonable at all)
    4. He doesn't care about being picked by a team that needs him versus being picked best available and rides the bench. As long as he gets paid.
    5. He's worried about injury
    6. He doesn't honestly see Duke making a championship run (given that alot would ride on who we could recruit for PG, that could be true).
    7. 3 years of college is enough...more than enough.

    *G stays because
    1. He's a guaranteed first rounder next year, why rush?
    2. No burden of trying to lift the family out of the po house
    3. He loves college
    4. He thinks Duke has a legit shot at a national title and thats important to him
    5. He wants a shot at being the big dog, he will be a preseason AA and K will taylor the offense for him. It'll be a 94 redux.
    6. He wants to potentially raise his stock by perfomance and thus drafted by need, not best available.
    7. No hurry to play for LAC or GS...thats like an 80 day trip to the dentist.
    8. H can improve his game substantially before going to the next level.


    I'm not saying one trumps the other, those are just the reasons I come up with. I think G is really considering all factors. I'll hate it if he leaves, but I sure as heck won't be mad at him. He'll always be a Blue Devil.
    He will probably test the waters by going to the camp but not signing with an agent. My understanding is that allows him to opt back to Duke if things don't look as rosy.

    Given that foreign players are taking a significant percentage of open positions and that there may only be a few locks in college basketball (Griffin, Thabeet and Tyreke Evans and possibly Lawson), I would say that Gerald may find himself in the late first round or even the 2nd round. He is probably slightly under 6'4", and there are a lot of athletic players that size vying for the open positions.

    I think he has some things to work on, including ball security and mental parts of the game, like not forcing shots that aren't there. Another year would be good for Duke and could be good for Gerald as well.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    My guess is that G declares. If he receives a top 10 pick guarantee from a team then he will stay. If not, I think his friendship with Jon will bring him back for another year. I don't know if people realize how ridiculously close those two are.
    Yea I sent a couple of friends who are still at Duke a note asking them their thoughts WRT to G as they occasionally hang with the team, and they said something similar about G and Jon. I knew they were buds, but until this year and seeing them interact on the court and the Blueplanet videos (and now some anecdotes) I had no idea they were such good friends.

    That said, I dont think thats the only big factor in him returning if he's not a top 10 pick, or more importantly, if intelligent GMs tell him that he could still improve his game more in college, i.e. its not all about draft position.

    I think he started to get a feel for what it means to really turn it on in college, but he only did it for half a season. I think Coach K can still get more out of him and I think hearing that from Coach (assuming K agrees) may have just as big of an impact as anything else.

    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    He will probably test the waters by going to the camp but not signing with an agent. My understanding is that allows him to opt back to Duke if things don't look as rosy.
    Yessir, thats how it works and I assume that's what he'll do as well. No reason not to, really...

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by 77devil View Post
    I suspect Gerald will have access to NBA information through his father that, like Mike Dunleavy, will allow him to know his draft position very precisely. He could very well receive advice that another year in college working on his ability to create from the perimeter, handle the ball, and to go left would improve his stock. Without more development in these areas, he is more limited by his size. If a team is willing take a chance, however, as GS did with Mike, it's hard to imagine Gerald will stay.

    And there's always the PGA to consider.
    Coach K has way more NBA connections that would give him a better idea of where Gerald would go in the draft. So K would actually be the best person to give Gerald an idea of where he would be drafted.

    I think Gerald will go, but I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed. I really do believe that Gerald hurt his draft stock by a few spots. Just like players can play themselves into the first round, or into the lottery, with almost nothing more than a hot tournament performance, players can also hurt their draft stock with a bad one. Gerald had a nightmare last game which happened to highlight some of his shortcomings. His whole NCAA tournament was some of his worst play of the season.

    Scouts and GM's value players who step up on the biggest stage, which is one of the reasons you see players get drafted earlier than they otherwise would have thanks to strong play in the tourney. If Ty Lawson, for example, plays great and leads UNC to the championship, he could very possibly jump ahead of Gerald on many teams' draft boards, especially those that need a PG (good PG's are quite scarce in the NBA, much more so than 6"4 shooting guards).

    It makes sense that struggling in the tourney would hurt a little bit - not drastically, because NBA people already know what Gerald can do, and he brings so many talents that they love to the table - but it could drop him a few spots on the draft board nevertheless.

    Like I said, I think Gerald is probably gone. But it's possible he played his way from a lock lottery pick to a questionable lottery pick, and it could affect his decision.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    I really don't buy the lockout talk.

    My guess is that G declares. If he receives a top 10 pick guarantee from a team then he will stay. If not, I think his friendship with Jon will bring him back for another year. I don't know if people realize how ridiculously close those two are.
    See, I think while Jon wants the best for G for G to leave for his senior year and hang him out in a way has to be a factor. G isn't an all about me kind of guy, and I think that is a factor. G has said numerous times it isn't about getting to the NBA, its about making an impact. He still needs some in development and just because he was silent over what to him felt like losing to UNC the FF being they played Nova shouldn't be used as "G is gone." I think G is back and brighter things loom for this team.

    Also, if he does declare: Let's not panic until he signs with an agent. CH went through the same stuff last year, and things panned out. Hopefully, this will work its self out for us.

  14. #54
    I think there's more to his stock falling thing than just 1 game. If you look at his season objectively, he started off pretty invisible, went to amazing, and then finished the season very poorly. I'm not just talking about his last game, anyone can have 1 bad game. His last 10 games were bad (everything since his magnificent Wake Forest game). He shot better than 50% once in the last 10 games, and better than 40% only twice (so 8 out of 10 he was 40% or less). Overall he was 35% from the floor in those 10 games. He was 27% from 3.

    He obviously would be drafted regardless of this all due to potential, but potential only gets you so far. It's not like he's a 6'5" point guard, he's a 6'4" shooting guard. I could see him slipping in the draft. He's certainly a first rounder but I doubt he'd go in the lottery. He may be better off going this year just because it's a weaker class.

    I'm not overly concerned, I hope Gerald does what is right for Gerald and wish him the best whatever he does. Duke will be good next year either way, having Kyle come back was vital and is amazing news. Without Gerald... Duke will have to go bigger next year. You'd see a lot of Kyle/Kelly at the 3 spot with Smith/Scheyer/Williams the only guards seeing real time. Maybe we get a guard recruit and then that would allow us to play 3 guards more which would be nice. The key for Duke would be how good the freshman perform. If Kelly comes in and performs as well as Kyle did his freshman year then Duke would be in great shape. You know Nolan and Elliot are gonna improve a lot this summer.

  15. #55
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    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    I could be wrong, but I don't believe the G that leveled Hasbro, because he didn't appreciate his dunking at the end of the game and the G that got downright nasty after Neal leveled Nolan is the type of kid who is worried about jumping to the NBA right now.

    I believe he is totally disgusted with the way things went down last night and isn't to pleased with the way he was punked by Nova, he'll be back, the kid's to proud to walk away with unfinished business on the table.

    Just my take watching Mr. Henderson these past 3 years.

  16. #56
    Posters above have done a good job of identifying the pros and cons of the decision facing Gerald, so I'll just highlight a couple.

    If G comes back, G will be THE leader of the team next year. Unquestioned, no doubt about it. It will be HIS team, not Kyle's or Jon's or anyone else's. The situation will force him to prove himself as a leader. G is unlikely to have that situation in the NBA, except it is possible that after years of improvement, if he does develop his skills to the level of someone like a Dwyane Wade, he has a shot at being the leader of an NBA team, like a Kobe or a LeBron. If he comes back, he will be the Kobe of Duke next year, both the most talented player AND the leader of the team. Career military officers will tell you that the most exhilarating time of their careers was as commanding officer of a unit, even at a relatively junior rank, and not when they were higher-ranking officers on the staff of some large command. There is no greater test of the mettle of a person than being a leader. K is especially attuned to this, and looks to develop leaders. The opportunity to, as the leader of a team, accomplish something great is an opportunity that is available to only a relatively few and may not come along more than once in a career.

    On the opposite side, is the risk of a career-limiting or –ending injury. Think of Shaun Livingston. This is an even greater risk for G because he is a high-flyer at only 6’-4”. And there seems to be more thuggish play on the court than in years past, possibly a reflection of the increased thuggishness and classlessness of fans. A career-ending injury can also occur off the court, witness JWill. If G decides to stay and sustains an injury that affects his NBA career, he might be kicking himself for the decision for the rest of his life.

  17. #57
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    Jan 2009
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    I would love for G to watch tape of Brandon Roy all summer long then come back for his senior year and try to finish it out on a good note with his best friends. I think he will have success in the NBA, but he needs to learn a lot about moving with/without the ball and creating. Remember, this guy is incredibly athletic, but when he gets to the NBA, he'll be just another fish in the sea when it comes to athleticism. I still don't think he truly knows how to be a "true scorer" which is why I think getting a lot of tape on Brandon Roy and just watching him operate with a smoothness that he does not have yet.

  18. #58
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCrazy84 View Post
    I would love for G to watch tape of Brandon Roy all summer long then come back for his senior year and try to finish it out on a good note with his best friends. I think he will have success in the NBA, but he needs to learn a lot about moving with/without the ball and creating. Remember, this guy is incredibly athletic, but when he gets to the NBA, he'll be just another fish in the sea when it comes to athleticism. I still don't think he truly knows how to be a "true scorer" which is why I think getting a lot of tape on Brandon Roy and just watching him operate with a smoothness that he does not have yet.
    I think this is the biggest thing people fail to realize about the jump to the NBA. In college, a 6'4" guy with Henderson's hops can dominate on athleticism alone. In the NBA? Not so much. That's not to say Henderson can't be an impact player at the next level. But it doesn't mean he's a slam dunk lottery pick this year either.

    I think Roy is an interesting role model. Henderson is a more explosive leaper, but both are similar athletically otherwise. Roy had a much more versatile game. One might argue that Roy had an "old man's game," in spite of being pretty athletic. Interestingly, the two have fairly similar peripheral stat lines as juniors. The big difference is that Roy was a 57% shooter from the field as a junior (Henderson was 47%), and Roy was a better overall defender while Henderson was the more prolific scorer.

    Roy really didn't take off until his senior year. He became a 20, 5, and 4 guy with great defensive skills. Henderson took off this year as a scorer, but not as a playmaker or as an EFFICIENT scorer. Roy was just so efficient offensively and so versatile. It would be nice to see Henderson return and show those skills as well.

  19. #59
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    Oct 2007
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    Atlanta, GA
    I think G would be making a big mistake if he left after this year. He plays the position where there is the biggest glut of talent in the league. Right now, I see Henderson, in NBA terms, as a McCants without the consistant shot.

    'Nova's defense made him look a little bit like a one trick pony. When he goes up against an elite team with a full load of athleticism, he has problems. It's true that in the NBA, he won't be as full of a focus for the other team's defense as he was last night, BUT he will have to go up against better one on one defenders with much bigger dudes waiting in the paint.

    When I look at G, I don't see "NBA Superstar" written all over him. His game just isn't mature enough yet. I think he has the potential, if he stays one more year, to be a Ben Gordon type of player, an undersized guy who was just embarrassing people in his last year at UConn. Players tend to develop more in college than they do in the pros. When you sign to a team, you are expected to compete for PT right away. If G stays another year, he'll have another college season with the green light to shoot 15-20 shots a game. I think that would be better for his long term development. He does not yet have the ability to consistently go left. His shot selection could also use some work.

    Selfishly, I'd love to see G come back for another year as a pre-season All-American and Sportscenter Top 10 fixture, then have him go on to be an impact NBA player. I feel like there is a strong possibility that if he goes this year, he'll get some PT for a few seasons then fade into obscurity when his team drafts a 6'6" SG over him a few years later.

    One thing that no one has mentioned yet is the fact that G began really developing his game very late at Duke. In basketball development time, he's really only been here about a year and a half. I think that one more year would pay off in spades for his future pro career.

  20. #60
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    Feb 2007
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    Tennessee
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

    I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?
    Going NBA and finishing his degree are not mutually exclusive. Besides, $6,000,000 would pretty much cover tuition most schools

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