Gerald Henderson Draft Status -- Pre-Announcement thread

[CMS2478]

Hopefully you aren't suggesting that losing G alone would make next season tough we still would have a solid lineup coming back that would have Kyle and Jon in it. Also a few other guys a year older and better I am optomisic either way.

Airforcedukie

I think he/she is suggesting that we would return the same team basically minus Henderson, so how would we really expect to go a whole lot further? I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here because I love the guys on the team, but we got exposed last night and without a point guard that can penetrate or a presence down low we can't expect much more. I don't blame this all on Coach K, bc it's not like we haven't tried to recruit PG's or Big Guys....they just haven't came. We were stone cold last night from outside and didn't have the option of someone like a Jay Williams penetrating or posting up an Elton Brand. On nights when your shooting is off you need those type of players that you can rely on to score inside or drive in a for a layup, we simply didn't have that last night and unless something happens, won't have it next year either. I know I sound like a doubter, but sometimes you just have to stop sugar coating things and be honest.

[Spret42]

I'm certainly not in G's position (never have been, never will be) but I can't imagine walking away from college basketball like this. It is one thing if Duke had lost a close game and he had played at least average. But he was 1-14, and nonexistent for long stretches of the game. That is not how a possible lottery pick is supposed to play. I don't think that my ego could allow me to end my career that way.

That being said, I agree with the previous post that silence is not a good sign.

I agree that playing the way Henderson played isn't the kind of way one wants to end a career. However a year of college ball is a lot to commit to due to one sub par game against a very good opponent. The performance can honestly be as much attributed to the play and ability of his teammates as much as his play. Take Henderson and Cunningham and switch teams. Henderson goes for 25 and 8 against Duke with that Villanova group.

I have no idea whether he stays and if asked my opinion on what he should do I wouldn't be able to fully commit to either decision. He is skilled enough to play in the NBA, he is physically mature enough, he has a good head on his shoulders and an NBA pedigree. He could very easily go pro and continue his development. Or he could stay in college, where there is the significant upside of continuing to learn to take over and completely dictate the game, much in the way Grant Hill did in 1994. He is not in a financial bind. If he enjoys the college process, stay in college.

His silence to me shows an understanding of the need to think things through.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I think he/she is suggesting that we would return the same team basically minus Henderson, so how would we really expect to go a whole lot further? I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here because I love the guys on the team, but we got exposed last night and without a point guard that can penetrate or a presence down low we can't expect much more. I don't blame this all on Coach K, bc it's not like we haven't tried to recruit PG's or Big Guys....they just haven't came. We were stone cold last night from outside and didn't have the option of someone like a Jay Williams penetrating or posting up an Elton Brand. On nights when your shooting is off you need those type of players that you can rely on to score inside or drive in a for a layup, we simply didn't have that last night and unless something happens, won't have it next year either. I know I sound like a doubter, but sometimes you just have to stop sugar coating things and be honest.

Good points, I agree mostly but I do think that we can still get past the sweet 16 without Henderson. But you never know, we could get Henderson back and not make it out of the first or second round next year as well. Luckily it looks like the ACC will be down next year and the BE wont be as great as they are this year either. Anyway its always fun to speculate and predict

[CMS2478]

I agree that playing the way Henderson played isn't the kind of way one wants to end a career. However a year of college ball is a lot to commit to due to one sub par game against a very good opponent. The performance can honestly be as much attributed to the play and ability of his teammates as much as his play. Take Henderson and Cunningham and switch teams. Henderson goes for 25 and 8 against Duke with that Villanova group.

I have no idea whether he stays and if asked my opinion on what he should do I wouldn't be able to fully commit to either decision. He is skilled enough to play in the NBA, he is physically mature enough, he has a good head on his shoulders and an NBA pedigree. He could very easily go pro and continue his development. Or he could stay in college, where there is the significant upside of continuing to learn to take over and completely dictate the game, much in the way Grant Hill did in 1994. He is not in a financial bind. If he enjoys the college process, stay in college.

His silence to me shows an understanding of the need to think things through.

Very good post!!!

[UrinalCake]

I'm certainly not in G's position (never have been, never will be) but I can't imagine walking away from college basketball like this.

Let's be honest here, the ultimate goal that every one of these guys has is to make it to the NBA. That's the reason they're playing in college. They might enjoy the college experience as an added bonus, but it's not their primary purpose. I enjoyed my college years at Duke too, but if someone offered me several million dollars during my junior year, I obviously would have left in a heartbeat.

IMO the only reason he would stay is if he thinks it will improve his draft position. Given the rookie salary scale, it might make sense financially to stay another year and be drafted in the top 5 versus leaving now and being drafted top 10-15. But then again leaving early gets the clock rolling sooner on that initial, fixed contract.

Also I would think that the NBA people would want him to improve his outside shot a little, since he'd be a SG. Just my opinion again.

[CDu]

Good points, I agree mostly but I do think that we can still get past the sweet 16 without Henderson. But you never know, we could get Henderson back and not make it out of the first or second round next year as well. Luckily it looks like the ACC will be down next year and the BE wont be as great as they are this year either. Anyway its always fun to speculate and predict

If we don't have Henderson next year, we are going to have to get a LOT more out of Williams and Smith. And we'll probably have to get a post presence. I think last night illustrated how important Henderson was to the team's offense. From January to March, he was the one guy who consistently was able to create his own shot on his own night in and night out. When he didn't have it, the offense looked putrid.

We don't necessarily need one of Williams and Smith to become as good as Henderson, but both would need to expand their games offensively so as to provide two more options to replace the huge option we'd lose in that scenario. And we'd probably need to add another guard to the mix to fill minutes, as we'd have only 3 guards in that rotation.

[GopherBlue]

Nbadraft.net and Draft express both have G going top ten. His reluctance to answer signals most likely that G is gone. The real victim here is K.

His reluctance to answer most likely signals he doesn't yet know for certain. Remember, G is a Jr, and has one opportunity to declare for the draft, go through workouts and get evaluations, and then make the decision...even if he is 98% sure he'll return.

Not a great comparison, but think about what Danny Green did last year - it didn't make a lot of sense at the time, and was handled kinda poorly, but in the end seemed to benefit him. I only see upside with going through the process (barring injury).

Victim? You lost me there...

[SMO]

If I were G, I'd declare, sign no agent, see where I stand in the draft, talk to Coach K, talk to dad, shun the NBA, come back to Duke, lead Duke to NCAA Championship, get jersey retired.

This is not an unrealistic scenario at all. I think the biggest stretch is the NCAA title but only because it always pays to take the field.

[freedevil]

The "victim" line is UNC trolling, a reference to K's poor choice of words after Henderson connected with Hansbrough's face.

[jv001]

It would be a bad way to go out, but we don't know what a young man like G is thinking. He needs time to piece together the information he will get from his dad, Coach K and others familar with the NBA. I heard the so called experts say this years draft is a weak one. I would think that would come into play in G's decision. I hope he returns but I'm confident we will be pretty good next year. Not FF good, but maybe Sweet Sixteen good. That all depends on how some players progress over the summer and just how good Kelly and Mason are when October arrives. Maybe we will get an unexpected signee at PG just as we got Miles last year. No matter what we will still be
DUKE. GO DUKE!

[SMO]

Also I would think that the NBA people would want him to improve his outside shot a little, since he'd be a SG. Just my opinion again.

I think they'd also like him to improve his ball handling a little and his ability to drive left. Minor improvements, but the added year could get him there. I think the main case for him going this year vs. next is that this year's draft will be weak. He's a great candidate for NPOY next year and I hope he values that.

[Zeke]

Realizing that an injury on one drive to the basket - in a game or practice -could hurt/end his NBA career. If that occurred at Duke that is just too bad. If it's after the NBA contract is in force then he's financially OK. I just don't know how GH could even consider not going to the NBA. There is seriously big money there.

[freedevil]

One bad game on Gerald's part probably won't change the minds of many scouts, particularly since few teams in the NBA play defense the way Villanova did last night (and before someone freaks out on me, note the slight sarcasm/exaggeration in that statement pertaining to NBA defense, please).

[KandG]

I've always felt he would be gone, taking away the emotion of the loss last night or any attachment to Duke.

The draft this year is so wide open that people can't even agree on who the number 2 pick will be, let alone numbers 3 to 12. I also feel that unlike players like Ellington, Lawson, or Green last year, Gerald is considerably more attractive and more ready for the NBA, and he's competing this year against several players that are even more raw and have more questions.

The only thing that might knock him down is teams' questions about his height (which wouldn't change significantly from this year to next year) or his ballhandling and general offensive game -- his defense is already considered advanced. I really don't know if the ability to improve his game with another year more outweighs the risk of injury, or enables him to jump numerous spots in the 2010 draft.

[Kedsy]

I think they'd also like him to improve his ball handling a little and his ability to drive left. Minor improvements, but the added year could get him there. I think the main case for him going this year vs. next is that this year's draft will be weak. He's a great candidate for NPOY next year and I hope he values that.

This has come up before, but he'll certainly be capable of working on his ball handling, his left hand, his shooting, whatever, while on an NBA roster at least as well as he can on a college roster. More capable, actually, because he doesn't have to worry about classes, etc.

Obviously I hope G stays, but I think the decision will and should be based on his own needs and desires. I don't think the "weakness" of this year's draft will come into play as much as some have suggested. This year he's borderline lottery, probably middle of the first round. Plus he starts the contract clock a year earlier, which in the long term is worth a fair amount of money. If he comes back and has the year we expect him too, he'll probably be a solid middle of the lottery pick (even in a stronger draft), and have a better chance to play right away. He'll also have a chance of getting injured in college which could damage his prospects.

He has to balance all those factors, plus some probably that I can't even guess, and see which way comes out on top. It's not obvious, at least to me, so I certainly don't think he's definitely gone. He has some excellent advisors (K, G, Sr.) and I hope he makes the best decision for himself.

[davekay1971]

Normally I'm one to entertain speculation, but this whole thread is pretty much nothing but baseless guessing. The man gave one statement that he had to think about it. Okay, fair enough. So we wait and give the young man time to make an important decision.

Thanks for a great year, G, and I hope to see you back in a Duke uniform one more year. If not, good luck at the next level. I'd ask you to throw it down over Hansbrough, but that will be difficult what with him sitting at the end of the bench.

[Kedsy]

I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here because I love the guys on the team, but we got exposed last night and without a point guard that can penetrate or a presence down low we can't expect much more.

We didn't get "exposed" last night, we just got beaten by a team who played harder than we did.

Duke will be good next year, G or no G. How good depends on how ready Kelly and the two Plumlees (and I suppose Czyz, but I'm not holding my breath on that) are to contribute. The team will look very different without G, but assuming at least a couple of the young big men can provide effective minutes, Duke will be a hard team to match up with.

[UrinalCake]

Realizing that an injury on one drive to the basket - in a game or practice -could hurt/end his NBA career. If that occurred at Duke that is just too bad. If it's after the NBA contract is in force then he's financially OK. I just don't know how GH could even consider not going to the NBA. There is seriously big money there.

I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?

[freshmanjs]

I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?

never understood this logic at all. how would G going pro limit his ability to get a degree in any way?

[HDB]

I think G is gone. His game is much more "NBA ready" than is Singler's at the moment and I really don't see that he'll be able to appreciably add to his game next year to appreciably improve his draft position. Just my $0.02.