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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    Charting Duke vs. Texas

    The beat goes on for Nolan Smith. He was +12 off the bench, meaning Duke got outscored by seven when he was out of the game. And this leads to a larger point that I've mentioned in passing, but now warrants more serious attention: The starting lineup does not play well as a group. That quintet has produced a negative plus/minus rating in three of the last four games. Binghamton was the only positive performance. On the season, they are now -5 as a group.

    Look, Duke is heading to the Sweet 16, and now is hardly the time to mess around the with the starting lineup. But I'm ready to advocate quick subs early in each half, without a return to that group. And it's not that the guys are bad players. Lance played well against Texas and Williams, despite the -11 he endured with the other starters, finished at +6. It's just that this group, for whatever reason, doesn't function at an optimal level together, which really stands out, because they've received the bulk of the credit for Duke's turnaround.

    Meanwhile, former starters Smith and Zoubek continue to make positive contributions. Therefore, for K, it's worth considering a change in his substitution pattern so, at the very least, Williams and Thomas are rarely in the game together. Also, Duke will sub less often in the second half, so it makes sense to get Smith and Zoubek/McClure in early, so there's a chance for Williams, especially, to come back in for a stint, giving Smith another break before he finishes the game. For me, that's the big plus/minus takeaway from this game. Anyway, on to the numbers ...

    Individuals
    Nolan Smith 59-47 (+12)
    Brian Zoubek 28-21 (+7)
    Kyle Singler 62-56 (+6)
    Elliot Williams 38-32 (+6)
    Greg Paulus 3-2 (+1)
    Jon Scheyer 61-61 (0)
    Gerald Henderson 66-67 (-1)
    Lance Thomas 44-46 (-2)
    David McClure 9-13 (-4)

    Per 40 Minutes
    Brian Zoubek +21.5
    Greg Paulus +20
    Nolan Smith +16.6
    Elliot Williams +10.9
    Kyle Singler +7.3
    Jon Scheyer 0
    Gerald Henderson -1.1
    Lance Thomas -3.2
    David McClure -26.7

    Lineups
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x3) 22-16 (+6)
    Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Zoubek 5-0 (+5)
    Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 8-4 (+4)
    Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 6-2 (+4)
    Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Zoubek 3-0 (+3)
    Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-McClure 2-0 (+2)
    Paulus-Smith-Williams-Singler-Thomas 3-2 (+1)
    Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek 2-2 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Williams-McClure-Thomas 0-0 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x4) 7-8 (-1)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Thomas 2-4 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Singler 0-2 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Zoubek (x2) 5-9 (-4)
    Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x3) 9-20 (-11)

  2. #2
    To what extent do you think the dynamic you are talking about is a function of the match-ups with Tejas?

    As you suggested in the "How we beat Texas" thread, Scheyer chased Abrams very effectively for much of the game. The effort took its toll on the offensive side, in making it harder for Jon to run the point all game long.

    Luckily, Nolan could step in and pick up the slack by running the point at a few critical junctures. As much as Williams has energized this team, he simply does not have the reps in game situations to step in and play the 1 confidently.

    Maybe a lineup with Scheyer and Williams did not perform as well as a lineup with Scheyer and Smith. But maybe the root cause was not necessarily Smith or Williams, but a dangerous gunner like Abrams.

  3. #3
    Jumbo, great points about the starting lineup. I've felt for a long time now that the current starting lineup is not ideal to take the majority of minutes. I liked the substitution patterns in this game, however. I was happy to see Z get his minutes... although I was not happy to see him make back to back fouls within 30 seconds of each other (to pick up his 3rd and 4th) while Lance was waiting to sub in for him after the first one.

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