MBB: Duke vs. Villanova (NCAA Tournament) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

This is the first of hopefully many Big East -ACC matchups in the Tournament.

I like this matchup, though, because we can start our normal five (Scheyer, Smith, Williams, Henderson, and Singler). If we play good defense throughout the game, instead of intermittenly like we did against Texas, we should roll.

That lineup will get some play, but Villanova will own the offensive boards against it. 'Nova is actually a strong rebounding team, and we saw how they kept getting second chances against a Ben Howland team. For the season, 'Nova ranks 56th in the country for offensive rebounding and Duke ranks 177th in defensive rebounding. 'Nova really isn't that great a matchup for Duke, and we will not roll.

[Troublemaker]

All those times in last night's second half when Ward drove to the basket, big Z was on the bench in foul trouble. If we're going to face a team that drives to the basket, we need Z in the paint ready to greet them. Zoubek is playing the best ball of his career by far, and I think we need to use him. Once again, let's dictate the style the opponent uses, rather than the other way around. I'd remind Zoubek that his value in the middle on defense is more having him rebound, intimidate and alter shots than blocking every single one. He's going to have to practice all week by guarding Singler without fouling. Then he'll be ready for Villanova. I'd be really let down if he doesn't play a bunch next week.

I'm not scared-- this is a great matchup for us. We win by more than 5.

Z will get close to zero minutes in this game. Dante Cunningham is one of the best players in the Big East with a good faceup game, and Z won't be able to guard him. I'm not sure Lance can either. Cunningham can both pull Z away from the basket and punish our smaller post players down low.

In general, I think there's a misconception among some Duke fans about how well Duke matches up with this team. Villanova is actually the nightmare matchup for Duke in this bracket, not Pitt.

When did Texas start to have offensive success against Duke? When they gave up on feeding the post due to Duke's ball pressure and decided to clear out for Ward to penetrate one-on-one. Well, Villanova is the best team in the country at spreading you out and penetrating. We have our hands full.

[devildownunder]

Z will get close to zero minutes in this game. Dante Cunningham is one of the best players in the Big East with a good faceup game, and Z won't be able to guard him. I'm not sure Lance can either. Cunningham can both pull Z away from the basket and punish our smaller post players down low.

In general, I think there's a misconception among some Duke fans about how well Duke matches up with this team. Villanova is actually the nightmare matchup for Duke in this bracket, not Pitt.

When did Texas start to have offensive success against Duke? When they gave up on feeding the post due to Duke's ball pressure and decided to clear out for Ward to penetrate one-on-one. Well, Villanova is the best team in the country at spreading you out and penetrating. We have our hands full.

I pretty much agree with you. what do you think K might do to prepare for this defensively?

[devildownunder]

That lineup will get some play, but Villanova will own the offensive boards against it. 'Nova is actually a strong rebounding team, and we saw how they kept getting second chances against a Ben Howland team. For the season, 'Nova ranks 56th in the country for offensive rebounding and Duke ranks 177th in defensive rebounding. 'Nova really isn't that great a matchup for Duke, and we will not roll.

You have to give up something. I still hold out hope that we'll run into a stretch of 5 mins. or so where Z is the only big on the floor and we benefit from that BUT realistically, I think we will be small most of the time and that's probably a good thing because I'd rather see our defense focus more on perimeter hedging to keep that ball from ever getting into the lane, rather than help defense after we've already given up the lane. We have better perimeter defenders than we do interior help defenders.

[loran16]

In general, I think there's a misconception among some Duke fans about how well Duke matches up with this team. Villanova is actually the nightmare matchup for Duke in this bracket, not Pitt.

When did Texas start to have offensive success against Duke? When they gave up on feeding the post due to Duke's ball pressure and decided to clear out for Ward to penetrate one-on-one. Well, Villanova is the best team in the country at spreading you out and penetrating. We have our hands full.

I don't think this is right...Texas had success with Ward because we prepared for James, Abrams and Pittman...and were still guarding em well when he went off. Was it poor play by us? Yeah, but we'll be prepared. UNC's rather good at spreading the floor and going in and out, i think they were better than Nova.

Pitt also has the inside-outside thing going. That's the big weakness, not spreading us out. We can handle that.

As for Zoo, well i suspect McClure will get the most minutes, though lance is well suited here too. People forget Lance is a fast defender who can defend guards and small forwards when he's not stupid with fouling. This is ideal for us.

I think we win in a tight one. I think Nova's being overrated...had we played in Durham, i think we wouldve won by as much as they did over UCLA. Just saying.

[ice-9]

I agree that Villanova is going to be a TOUGH game. But so will any other game against a 3 seed.

I think Duke should win. Nova has a great chance of upsetting us, but if they beat us, it will and should count as an upset.

Yes, they're good at penetrating and we seem to be weak there, but we have trouble defending the penetration sometimes because we overplay the perimeter. If we overplay the perimeter and Nova penetrates, they won't get many 3-point looks. If we pack the lane and cut off penetration, they'll have more open 3-point shots. Our system has pros and cons and it'll be interesting to see how things play out, but I disagree that Nova is somehow a fundamentally a bad match-up for us.

(A bad match-up is UNC: speedy PG, all-conference center, tons of shooters, tons of big men).

Against Nova, we'll be able to play our best 5 players. That to me is the definition of a good match-up. And if we want to mix things up and cause problems for them -- i.e. how do you defend a 7-footer when your biggest guy is a medium sized 6'8 power forward -- we can. I disagree with the assessment that Nova is a bad match-up for us.

Other reasons why we are a 2 seed and they are a 3 seed:

- We've done more throughout the season; we have a better record against a tougher schedule

- We're better rated in all the polls and computer rankings

- We have at least two NBA players and they may not even have one, so I strongly disagree the talent level is equal

- We are riding with more momentum having won the ACC tournament, a tough second round game, and 10 of the last 11 games

Bottom line, I think Vegas' assessment of -2.5 is about right. It's gonna be a dogfight and a close game, but we should be the favored team.

[bossesjoe]

To be honest the fact that 'Nova dispatched UCLA and their physical playing style so easily scares. They will rebound, work the inside, and run the transition very hard. I have faith, but this is definitely going to be one of the hardest games this team has faced all year.

[Troublemaker]

I pretty much agree with you. what do you think K might do to prepare for this defensively?

Gotta play the percentages, and pray. Help off of Redding (28% from 3) and Anderson (32%). Allow Cunningham to have the 16-footer, which he's been banging home all season, but at least it's a 2-pt shot. Stay at home on the rest.

Most importantly, don't foul. If a layup's inevitable, just let them have it. We don't want to allow 3-point plays and we definitely don't want them to get easy points towards the end of each half via free throws ('Nova shoots 75% from the line) while fouling out our players. They are one of the best teams in the country at drawing fouls because they are so good at penetrating. Don't foul, don't foul, don't foul is what Coach K will be preaching all week.

The other thing is attack, attack, attack (on offense). This is a game we're going to have to win with offense, as I expect 'Nova to spend all game carving up our defense with drives and backdoors. We need our players to attack them on the other end just as aggressively as they will attack us, and that means staying out of foul trouble (so you don't have to worry about charging). Instead, try to get THEM in foul trouble.

[Troublemaker]

Pitt also has the inside-outside thing going. That's the big weakness, not spreading us out. We can handle that.

As for Zoo, well i suspect McClure will get the most minutes, though lance is well suited here too. People forget Lance is a fast defender who can defend guards and small forwards when he's not stupid with fouling. This is ideal for us.

I think we win in a tight one. I think Nova's being overrated...had we played in Durham, i think we wouldve won by as much as they did over UCLA. Just saying.

A guard-oriented team is only an ideal matchup for Duke if they're not quick. Villanova is superquick. How did guard-oriented Belmont give us so much trouble last season? Villanova is Belmont on steroids.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. In general, I'm much more fearful of quickness than size.

[Duke76]

where we have played 2 teams from the same conference...I think it was even
2 Big East teams and everyone said they were gonna play physical with us and we get punked...we skinned them both...anyone remember??

K and the boys are gonna put them away and then we're gonna make ole Roy cry in the semis and take care of that team from Louisville...we owe them one from back in...was in 86 nervous Pervis was one lucky dude then

anyway we're gonna shock the world!! play that "eye of the tiger" song again K. play it loud

[gumbomoop]

hmmm, as it think about it, game time will probably depend of if pitt advances or not. lowest seed gets the first game, doesn't it?

I don't think advancing high seeds are relevant. CBS will have to "balance" 4 games into 2 slots, with likely switches depending on how games progress. Part of CBS's calculation depends on who's in the West region [UConn/Purdue and Memphis/Mo/Marq], which also plays Thurs. My guess as to which would be the marquee matchup of the eve is Duke-Villa, much more than Pitt/Wisc/X, and certainly much more should OK St. beat Pitt, and more than any match in West. I'd bet Duke-Villa is 9:30, esp because, absent any really compelling matchup, "Let's watch Duke lose" is the marquee draw across the country.

This is just a lazy-Sunday-aft-semi-semi-educated guess. I'll make Duke-Villa a 3-pt favorite for 9:30.

[Troublemaker]

(A bad match-up is UNC: speedy PG, all-conference center, tons of shooters, tons of big men).

Against Nova, we'll be able to play our best 5 players. That to me is the definition of a good match-up. And if we want to mix things up and cause problems for them -- i.e. how do you defend a 7-footer when your biggest guy is a medium sized 6'8 power forward -- we can. I disagree with the assessment that Nova is a bad match-up for us.

Other reasons why we are a 2 seed and they are a 3 seed:

- We've done more throughout the season; we have a better record against a tougher schedule

- We're better rated in all the polls and computer rankings

- We have at least two NBA players and they may not even have one, so I strongly disagree the talent level is equal

- We are riding with more momentum having won the ACC tournament, a tough second round game, and 10 of the last 11 games

Bottom line, I think Vegas' assessment of -2.5 is about right. It's gonna be a dogfight and a close game, but we should be the favored team.

If you think 'Nova is a good matchup for Duke, that's fine, but rankings, seedings, and point spreads really shouldn't be taken into account. The point spread is set to get equal cash on both sides of the bet so that the book can collect the vig; Vegas doesn't "think" Duke should win. They just think Duke -2.5 is a profitable number for them at which to set the spread.

[gumbomoop]

Sorry for referring to 'Nova as "Villa." Unpardonably gauche.

[JDev]

I think Duke matches up well with Nova using varying line-ups made up of Scheyer, Williams, Henderson, Singler, Thomas, Smith, and McClure. Nova is small, so this group matches up well defensively. Singler could be a tough match-up for Nova if they choose to put Cunnigham on Thomas to avoid foul trouble. In the instances where Duke goes big with Zoubek in, Cunningham will have to guard him, as he is typically the biggest guy on the floor for Nova. If they do put Cunningham on Thomas, I hope he is the one doing a lot of high ball screens, bringing Cunningham out and opening the lane. A lot will be made of the Nova guards and their ability to drive, but this is a game where Duke can and should attack the basket at a high rate.

[captmojo]

When did Texas start to have offensive success against Duke? When they gave up on feeding the post due to Duke's ball pressure and decided to clear out for Ward to penetrate one-on-one. Well, Villanova is the best team in the country at spreading you out and penetrating. We have our hands full.

We'll just have to agree to disagree.

Sorry to split quotes. Your assessments sound reasonable, a good study, but I take a slight exception to the driving Longhorns' success and the reasons for it. A lot of the times they were driving seemed to me to be a result of the Duke guards playing off slightly and expecting help defense to be there behind them. Of course, with the foul trouble Duke was in, a lot of that defense went by the boards and prospective defenders became spectators.

[CDu]

During the Texas game, some of Z's best minutes came against Texas' small line-up -- w/out Pittman -- because he was the only big guy on the floor. I'm sort of hoping he can accomplish the same thing against Villanova. He does slow things down some but we've already slowed down the offense and don't really look to break much now anyway. You're probably right that he won't play much, given the track record this year but I still think we can hope for some minutes of Z as the lone tall tree out there.

I just think this is a horrible matchup for Zoubek. Villanova has only one guy in their rotation that Zoubek can guard at all (Pena), and that guy doesn't play a lot. I'll be surprised if we see much time for Zoubek, and if he is in it will be when Pena is in. Texas was a better matchup because they always had one of Johnson, Atchley, and Pittman in the game, and those guys are either pure posts or non-threats offensively. Cunningham and company is a much different animal.

I haven't seen Villanova play much, do you think they'd let Singler pull Cunningham that far away from the basket?

Cunningham is pretty comfortable defending away from the basket. If Villanova does put him on Singler, he'll have no problem going out and defending. And if they don't, they'll have a big wing/forward who is comfortable defending inside or out (Anderson, Redding, or Clark) guard Singler. The one thing Villanova is not short on is decently-sized, athletic wing/forwards who are willing to defend on the perimeter or in the lane.

[Ian]

Personally I thought Duke defended Texas' spread offense fine.

At least 2 of Ward's drives were clearly charges when the help defender got into position but were called blocks that allowed Ward to score and get a FT. If both of those plays were called correctly and Ward got called for 2 charges it would have been the end of Texas' spread offense. Those 2 bad calls also created foul trouble for Lance Thomas who is our best inside help defender.

The problem wasn't our defense, it was the refs. There is no effective defense if the offensively player is going to get a blocking call when he simply runs over the defender.

[Troublemaker]

Sorry to split quotes. Your assessments sound reasonable, a good study, but I take a slight exception to the driving Longhorns' success and the reasons for it. A lot of the times they were driving seemed to me to be a result of the Duke guards playing off slightly and expecting help defense to be there behind them. Of course, with the foul trouble Duke was in, a lot of that defense went by the boards and prospective defenders became spectators.

That could be right. But it could also be that when a defense is spread out, it's tougher for help defense to arrive in time due to the greater distance that needs to be covered.

The Texas game was just a great example of what Duke's defense can force teams to do. Here was this huge team that was supposed to cause us all sorts of problems with its size (and Pittman did give us fits, for sure). But when push came to shove, the opponent decided its best chance of winning was to spread and go iso because they couldn't get the ball inside enough due to Duke's ball pressure. Only then did Texas make a run and almost steal the game from us.

Like others, I hope that with a few days to prepare, Duke can defend Villanova well. But I do think, ultimately, we're going to have to win with offense.

[devildownunder]

I just think this is a horrible matchup for Zoubek. Villanova has only one guy in their rotation that Zoubek can guard at all (Pena), and that guy doesn't play a lot. I'll be surprised if we see much time for Zoubek, and if he is in it will be when Pena is in. Texas was a better matchup because they always had one of Johnson, Atchley, and Pittman in the game, and those guys are either pure posts or non-threats offensively. Cunningham and company is a much different animal.



Cunningham is pretty comfortable defending away from the basket. If Villanova does put him on Singler, he'll have no problem going out and defending. And if they don't, they'll have a big wing/forward who is comfortable defending inside or out (Anderson, Redding, or Clark) guard Singler. The one thing Villanova is not short on is decently-sized, athletic wing/forwards who are willing to defend on the perimeter or in the lane.

The more I think about it, the more I tend to agree that Zoubek won't play much. As for Cunningham guarding Singler, I was thinking more about pulling him away from the basket, freeing up the lane for cutters. I've seen enough of Villanova in the last two weeks to know they have plenty of athletes, what I'm contemplating is how we do to them what I'm sure they'll try to do to us -- spread their defense.

[CDu]

The more I think about it, the more I tend to agree that Zoubek won't play much. As for Cunningham guarding Singler, I was thinking more about pulling him away from the basket, freeing up the lane for cutters. I've seen enough of Villanova in the last two weeks to know they have plenty of athletes, what I'm contemplating is how we do to them what I'm sure they'll try to do to us -- spread their defense.

I don't think they'll worry about Cunningham being pulled away from the basket on defense. He's not really a big shotblocker/shotchanger anyway. I'm sure we'll try to spread them out and run high screens just like we do against everyone though. They'll overplay and be physical on the perimeter, and they'll come over to help on defense with force (not from a shotblocking presence, but from a put a body on you presence). They're quick and physical.

If we are strong with the ball, we should be able to get opportunities on offense. We need to hit shots when we have them. We also need to be aggressive but under control. We can definitely get into the lane against them, and we can draw fouls if we play smart. It should be a very interesting game.