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  1. #1

    Computer rating systems

    Last year, I posted about my computer rating system that I use to fill out my bracket (or at least to choose which games to watch). Here are the ratings for this year, and the following are the predicted results for all of the first-round matchups:

    Code:
    First Round:
    1 Connecticut, 16 Chattanooga (23.67)
    1 Louisville, 16 Morehead St. (18.14)
    1 North Carolina, 16 Radford (22.96)
    1 Pittsburgh, 16 East Tennessee St. (16.13)
    2 Duke, 15 Binghamton (20.48)
    2 Memphis, 15 Cal St. Northridge (15.47)
    2 Michigan St., 15 Robert Morris (14.99)
    2 Oklahoma, 15 Morgan St. (16.39)
    3 Kansas, 14 North Dakota St. (7.68)
    3 Missouri, 14 Cornell (13.26)
    3 Syracuse, 14 Stephen F. Austin (12.32)
    3 Villanova, 14 American (12.87)
    4 Gonzaga, 13 Akron (14.68)
    4 Wake Forest, 13 Cleveland St. (8.55)
    4 Washington, 13 Mississippi St. (7.21)
    4 Xavier, 13 Portland St. (9.01)
    5 Florida St., 12 Wisconsin (-.09)
    5 Illinois, 12 Western Kentucky (9.37)
    5 Purdue, 12 Northern Iowa (9.24)
    5 Utah, 12 Arizona (1.72)
    6 Arizona St., 11 Temple (4.91)
    6 Marquette, 11 Utah St. (5.22)
    6 UCLA, 11 Virginia Commonwealth (7.91)
    6 West Virginia, 11 Dayton (12.15)
    7 Boston College, 10 Southern California (-3.41)
    7 California, 10 Maryland (2.08)
    7 Clemson, 10 Michigan (6.85)
    7 Texas, 10 Minnesota (2.59)
    8 Brigham Young, 9 Texas A&M (6.67)
    8 Louisiana St., 9 Butler (-.01)
    8 Ohio St., 9 Siena (2.55)
    8 Oklahoma St., 9 Tennessee (-.62)
    The number to the right is the expected margin of victory. A negative number means that the lower seed is expected to upset the higher seed.

    The ratings also predict a Final Four of UNC, UConn, Pitt, and West Virginia.

    What do you guys think?

    - matt

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orange County, NC
    Looks very interesting but are we supposed to be able to follow the link on the old post?

  3. #3
    The old rankings are at http://www.duke.edu/~mhj32/bball-08.txt.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Goldsboro, NC
    The games that I still have blank in my first round are the 8/9 matchups. These always kill me in my brackets. Specifically, the BC/USC matchup. Right now I am leaning toward USC over BC, although I wouldn't mind seeing the ACC team win. What do you guys think?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Mobile, Alabama

    Computer system

    Can you give us some explanation of how the computer ratings work? How do these number differ from Pomeroy?

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    Good info, but I would be surprised if Wisconsin beat FSU.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    Good info, but I would be surprised if Wisconsin beat FSU.
    Me too, but almost every computer model I've seen has Wiscy ahead of FSU. Will be curious to see how it plays out.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by rtnorthrup View Post
    Can you give us some explanation of how the computer ratings work? How do these number differ from Pomeroy?
    The game data is fitted into a linear system with slight weights and score caps and solved by least squares. Pomeroy used to employ a similar method but dropped it in favor of Pythagorean winning percentage, which basically estimates winning percentage based on points for and points against. Interestingly, the two unrelated methods produce pretty similar results (e.g., both systems rank WVU and Gonzaga significantly higher than human polls).

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