Nationwide Bubble Watch

[pfrduke]

Cincinnati, which was only barely clinging to bubble hopes anyway, has been officially pushed off, losing to Depaul (that's 0-18 in the Big East regular season Depaul) in the first round of the (five-round!) Big East tourney. Bye bye.

Davidson is likely on life support after losing in the semis to Charleston. Their best win is over W.Va, but otherwise, all they showed this year is that they a) have Stephen Curry and b) can play and lose to better teams.

St. Mary's is an interesting case - only 6 losses, several of which came without star Patty Mills, but extremely lacking in quality wins, and getting pasted by the Zags in last night's WCC title game. They have to be sweating.

[burns15]

Lunardi has St. Mary's in the first four out category in the his most recent Bracketology (updated today).

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[pfrduke]

And a hearty vaya con dios to Georgetown, which just fell to St. John's. They would have needed to at least reach Friday to have a good shot. The new opening round of the BET has been killing those teams that were hanging on to the bubble by their finger tips.

[Faustus]

Already.
As Seinfeld used to say,
"Oh, that's a shame."

[Bluedog]

Cincinnati, which was only barely clinging to bubble hopes anyway, has been officially pushed off, losing to Depaul (that's 0-18 in the Big East regular season Depaul) in the first round of the (five-round!) Big East tourney. Bye bye.

Davidson is likely on life support after losing in the semis to Charleston. Their best win is over W.Va, but otherwise, all they showed this year is that they a) have Stephen Curry and b) can play and lose to better teams.

St. Mary's is an interesting case - only 6 losses, several of which came without star Patty Mills, but extremely lacking in quality wins, and getting pasted by the Zags in last night's WCC title game. They have to be sweating.

Congratulations to DePaul on their first Big East victory! Woot woot. I had wanted to go to some games, but they are ridiculously expensive for such a terrible team. Now we'll see if Rutgers can complete the bubble popping of Big East teams with a victory over ND tonight (although I gotta cheer for ND).

I really don't think St. Mary's deserves an at-large bid. RPI 46, SOS 145. Their best wins are vs. SD St (44), Utah St (27), and Providence (71). Worst losses are Santa Clara (193), Portland (118), and UTEP (79). Three top 100 RPI wins all season just isn't enough, IMO. Georgetown has SEVEN rpi top 100 wins, for comparison. I tend to look at best wins as more significant than worst losses. We all know the bubble teams can lose to teams, the question is who can they beat...

[hurleyfor3]

Is it me, or are an extraordinary number of bubble teams this year rolling over in games they need to win? And not tough games, but stuff like Cincy/DePaul. This has to be good news for the higher/more consistent bubble teams such as BC, UMiami and Providence. Florida might even be back in.

[pamtar]

Lunardi has St. Mary's in the first four out category in the his most recent Bracketology (updated today).

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Our bracket in this scenario makes me drool. We should be able to easily get by Mich St. However, Pitt would be tough. Still, its more doable than UCon or UNC.

[pfrduke]

Cleveland State just stole a bid from a bubble team.

As an aside, I'd take any of Lunardi's "last four out" teams in a single game against any of his "last four in" teams.

[jimsumner]

Bad news for bubble teams. Cleveland State just beat Butler. Butler still gets in and the Horizon just became a two-bid league.

[BlueintheFace]

Bad news for bubble teams. Cleveland State just beat Butler. Butler still gets in and the Horizon just became a two-bid league.

No biggie, Cincinnati turned in their bid earlier today so Cleveland State just gave it to Butler.

[pfrduke]

No biggie, Cincinnati turned in their bid earlier today so Cleveland State just gave it to Butler.

I don't think Cincinnati actually had one to surrender.

[ice-9]

It's Providence that's on the bubble...let's hope they trip up as well.

[Bob Green]

St. Mary's is an interesting case - only 6 losses, several of which came without star Patty Mills, but extremely lacking in quality wins, and getting pasted by the Zags in last night's WCC title game. They have to be sweating.

I really don't think St. Mary's deserves an at-large bid. RPI 46, SOS 145. Their best wins are vs. SD St (44), Utah St (27), and Providence (71).

With Providence and St. Mary's both solidly on the bubble, one would have to believe St. Mary's has an advantage with their win over Providence. I realize the situation isn't that simple but a victory in a head-to-head matchup has to mean something.

[CDu]

With Providence and St. Mary's both solidly on the bubble, one would have to believe St. Mary's has an advantage with their win over Providence. I realize the situation isn't that simple but a victory in a head-to-head matchup has to mean something.

I'm sure it means something, but only assuming that the resumes are virtually identical otherwise. The committee will look at the entire body of work. 30 games is a better measure of who is more deserving than one game. I mean, no one would say that UVa is better than Clemson, would they? Or that Morgan St is better than Maryland? BC better than Duke or UNC?

St. Mary's just doesn't have nearly the resume Providence has, in my opinion. St Mary's has only three wins against the RPI top-100 (they're 3-4 in games against the RPI top-100) and two losses to teams outside the RPI top-100.

Providence, on the other hand, has six wins against the RPI top-100 (two against the top-25) and no bad losses at all. I think that is worth more than a head-to-head loss back in November.

Other than the RPI (which overvalues wins against poor competition and undervalues competitiveness against good competition), there's little to support a claim for St. Mary's in the tournament, in my opinion.

[dukie8]

I'm sure it means something, but only assuming that the resumes are virtually identical otherwise. The committee will look at the entire body of work. 30 games is a better measure of who is more deserving than one game. I mean, no one would say that UVa is better than Clemson, would they? Or that Morgan St is better than Maryland? BC better than Duke or UNC?

St. Mary's just doesn't have nearly the resume Providence has, in my opinion. St Mary's has only three wins against the RPI top-100 (they're 3-4 in games against the RPI top-100) and two losses to teams outside the RPI top-100.

Providence, on the other hand, has six wins against the RPI top-100 (two against the top-25) and no bad losses at all. I think that is worth more than a head-to-head loss back in November.

Other than the RPI (which overvalues wins against poor competition and undervalues competitiveness against good competition), there's little to support a claim for St. Mary's in the tournament, in my opinion.

equally, and probably more, important is the fact that the committee judges each team as it is now. the st mary's team today is much worse than the st mary's team that beat providence in november now that it clear that mills is much less than 100%.

[MulletMan]

You know what's really interesting about that DePaul upset is that while it clearly hurts Cincy (or kills them) it most likely also hurts Providence. A win over Cincy in the second round of the Big East tourney probably would have helped Providence's S.O.S. and RPI numbers and been another win against a top 100 team. Now, they are playing a sub 200 team with a horrendous record. A win doesn't do them much good, and proabably leaves them needing to beat Louisville in the semis. A loss destroys any chance they have of getting in.

[dukie8]

You know what's really interesting about that DePaul upset is that while it clearly hurts Cincy (or kills them) it most likely also hurts Providence. A win over Cincy in the second round of the Big East tourney probably would have helped Providence's S.O.S. and RPI numbers and been another win against a top 100 team. Now, they are playing a sub 200 team with a horrendous record. A win doesn't do them much good, and proabably leaves them needing to beat Louisville in the semis. A loss destroys any chance they have of getting in.

yes, the depaul win really hurts providence. beating depaul does nothing for them but beating cincy (a team formerly known as a bubble team) likely would have gotten them in. i'm still not sold on louisville. it had the benefit of not having to play at uconn or at pitt and lost to a horrible nd team by 33. beating louisville will get providence in.

[ice-9]

I hope Providence beats Louisville and gets into the tournament.

It'll make space for Duke at the 2 seed.

[CDu]

I hope Providence beats Louisville and gets into the tournament.

It'll make space for Duke at the 2 seed.

What many of the talking heads who are discussing potentially 3 Big East schools getting #1 seeds are forgetting is that at least one of Pitt and UConn will lose on Friday (at the latest), and at least two of the three possible #1s will lose in the Big East tournament. And it's very possible that Louisville will lose to Villanova or Marquette on Friday.

Meanwhile, OU has a good shot at winning their tournament, as does Memphis.

[pfrduke]

Providence managed to escape the Blue Demons, despite trailing much of the game. The game against Louisville tomorrow could be a "win-and-in" for them.