Phase IV - 2009

[Jumbo]

I’ve spent very little time on the board over the past few days, and that’s a good thing. My thoughts haven’t been colored by the post-UNC fallout. In fact, I haven’t dwelled on that game much at all. Now that I’m taking the time to reflect – which is essential before looking ahead -- I feel fresh ... and even hopeful.

That sense of hope, of course, is tied to yet another group of questions that has arisen with the dawn of Phase IV, which we’ll consider the remainder of the regular season. If Duke can answer most of these affirmatively, we’ll be in very good shape. So here’s what I’m wondering about – and what I’ll watch closely – over the next seven games. And I’ll start with the most important issue of all.

Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
That seems to be one of the many fears abounding among Duke fans. A lot of people see a pattern in the last couple of seasons, and some have decided that we’re witnessing more of the same. Maybe Duke peaked against Xavier. Or against Maryland. Maybe everyone else is playing as hard as Duke did at the beginning of the year, narrowing the gap between teams.

Maybe. But maybe Duke has another level to reach, too. Maybe the inconsistency of the last month has to do with the fact that this team is still growing, still maturing, still mastering concepts. Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level. Such a game would involve a mix of the defensive intensity we saw earlier with the offensive efficiency we saw, say, in the first half against Carolina. It would include consistent scoring performances from Singler, Scheyer and Henderson (both inside and out), some easy baskets in the open court from Smith, a couple of plays inside from Zoubek to open things up, a couple of big jumpers from Paulus. We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
Kids are fragile. Duke’s kids clearly poured their hearts into that Carolina game, and came up short. That can destroy some confidence. So can a blowout loss at Clemson, a first-half egg against Miami and a close, painful loss at Wake.
Or, those can be bumps in the road for a group of kids who know they’re good, know they’re capable of beating anyone, anywhere and know that their best ball is ahead of them. This is purely a mental issue. The guys talked a lot before the season about how they were young the last two years, and thus lost their confidence easily. Now, we’re older and more mature, and we can’t afford that kind of a mental slip. This is something the kids can control. Simply, they need to believe in themselves as strongly as ever before.

Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.

Is The Slump over?
We know how poorly Jon Scheyer shot over the last few weeks. But now he’s coming of back-to-back 20-plus games. His shooting percentage wasn’t great (11-for-28 in those two games), but he was attacking more, regaining his scoring knack, etc. Hopefully, the efficiency will return soon. Because Duke is a different team when he is a reliable scorer. Suddenly, we have a Big Three. And if the defense has to respect Jon’s scoring, all the other things he does so well, particularly as a distributor, should come easier. Let’s hope he’s up for a steady stretch run, just like he offered last season.

Was there a glimmer of long-term hope that emerged in the last two games, even though they were tough?
I’ve been concerned about our offense all season, but I saw a lot to like in the last two games. It started in the second half against Miami where, against a zone, we still managed to add more motion off the ball. That opened things up so that even though we shot a ton of threes, they were great looks. And because of that motion, guys were able to drive against the zone, too. Then, against UNC, the offense really looked superb in stretches. Granted, some of that had to do with UNC’s lack of defensive effort. But again, there was more movement off the ball, quicker passing, etc. When we struggled in the second half, it was the result of shooting too quickly. But it never felt like a struggle to get a good shot, like we’d seen for much of the season. If we’ve added a more versatile, motion-based approach, we’ll be tougher to guard.

Zzzzzzzzzz?
Is Brian Zoubek ready to hibernate? Has he lost confidence and the ability to play against guys his own size? Will Duke stop looking to run some stuff through him? Or, can he challenge himself to play better? Can he bottle whatever he has shown in spurts to give us 15-20 quality minutes each night? There’s no question that just by taking up (and holding) space, he makes our defense better. There’s no question that just by entering the ball to him at the mid-post, our offense presents a different look. From there, it’s up to Brian. He can hold his ground on D, avoid fouling, and move just well enough to stay with his guy and cover for his teammates. On offense, he can control the ball, use his excellent vision to find teammates, hit a hook shot or two, and crash the offensive boards. What’s it gonna be?

Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. For Duke, that means pushing the ball off turnovers and rebounds, running inbounds plays successfully, attacking early to get teams in foul trouble, so a reach-in with eight minutes left sends us to the line. Pay attention to this – it will be really important.

Will the offseason changes pay off?
Supposedly, Duke altered its conditioning program to have fresher legs later in the season. We decided to play bigger so Singler wouldn’t get pounded night after night. Supposedly we changed the practice routine as well. So, we’re getting to the point in the season where those changes – hopefully – should be manifested in Duke’s play.

You’ll notice there are plenty of issues some people have lamented that I haven’t identified. For instance, I never mentioned Elliot Williams or Miles Plumlee, and that’s because I believe if the other issues are resolved, their contributions become luxuries, not necessities. I didn’t worry about an over-reliance on threes, because if Duke is running a successful motion offense, that’ll take care of itself, too.

The important thing, again, is that this team still has plenty of upside. I can’t stress that strongly enough. I can’t guarantee that the guys will reach their potential, but it exists. And as long as it exists, we have to remain hopeful that this can be a really special season.

[BlueintheFace]

I am beginning to suspect that K has decided that Z is one year away from being able to contribute on a final four caliber team... again. I hope I am wrong.

[MChambers]

Thanks for another excellent analysis. I'm mostly concerned about Smith and Zoubek getting back to where they were. I think that is very connected to our defensive struggles.

[DukieInBrasil]

I was pretty pumped up on Z and kinda deflated on LT a while back, but that has kinda reversed lately. Lately (including 1st half of BC) LT has given us some pretty solid ball, not great but enough.
So maybe that should enter into the questions for Phase IV Jumbo; what kind of play will we get from LT now that he appears to have grabbed the minutes that Z is shedding? Will they team up to form an actual tandem threat or will it be totally random in how effective either or both are on a given night?

[rtnorthrup]

A very inauspicious start to Phase IV.

[77devil]

I’ve spent very little time on the board over the past few days, and that’s a good thing. My thoughts haven’t been colored by the post-UNC fallout. In fact, I haven’t dwelled on that game much at all. Now that I’m taking the time to reflect – which is essential before looking ahead -- I feel fresh ... and even hopeful.

That sense of hope, of course, is tied to yet another group of questions that has arisen with the dawn of Phase IV, which we’ll consider the remainder of the regular season. If Duke can answer most of these affirmatively, we’ll be in very good shape. So here’s what I’m wondering about – and what I’ll watch closely – over the next seven games. And I’ll start with the most important issue of all.

Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
That seems to be one of the many fears abounding among Duke fans. A lot of people see a pattern in the last couple of seasons, and some have decided that we’re witnessing more of the same. Maybe Duke peaked against Xavier. Or against Maryland. Maybe everyone else is playing as hard as Duke did at the beginning of the year, narrowing the gap between teams.

Maybe. But maybe Duke has another level to reach, too. Maybe the inconsistency of the last month has to do with the fact that this team is still growing, still maturing, still mastering concepts. Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level. Such a game would involve a mix of the defensive intensity we saw earlier with the offensive efficiency we saw, say, in the first half against Carolina. It would include consistent scoring performances from Singler, Scheyer and Henderson (both inside and out), some easy baskets in the open court from Smith, a couple of plays inside from Zoubek to open things up, a couple of big jumpers from Paulus. We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
Kids are fragile. Duke’s kids clearly poured their hearts into that Carolina game, and came up short. That can destroy some confidence. So can a blowout loss at Clemson, a first-half egg against Miami and a close, painful loss at Wake.
Or, those can be bumps in the road for a group of kids who know they’re good, know they’re capable of beating anyone, anywhere and know that their best ball is ahead of them. This is purely a mental issue. The guys talked a lot before the season about how they were young the last two years, and thus lost their confidence easily. Now, we’re older and more mature, and we can’t afford that kind of a mental slip. This is something the kids can control. Simply, they need to believe in themselves as strongly as ever before.

Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.

Is The Slump over?
We know how poorly Jon Scheyer shot over the last few weeks. But now he’s coming of back-to-back 20-plus games. His shooting percentage wasn’t great (11-for-28 in those two games), but he was attacking more, regaining his scoring knack, etc. Hopefully, the efficiency will return soon. Because Duke is a different team when he is a reliable scorer. Suddenly, we have a Big Three. And if the defense has to respect Jon’s scoring, all the other things he does so well, particularly as a distributor, should come easier. Let’s hope he’s up for a steady stretch run, just like he offered last season.

Was there a glimmer of long-term hope that emerged in the last two games, even though they were tough?
I’ve been concerned about our offense all season, but I saw a lot to like in the last two games. It started in the second half against Miami where, against a zone, we still managed to add more motion off the ball. That opened things up so that even though we shot a ton of threes, they were great looks. And because of that motion, guys were able to drive against the zone, too. Then, against UNC, the offense really looked superb in stretches. Granted, some of that had to do with UNC’s lack of defensive effort. But again, there was more movement off the ball, quicker passing, etc. When we struggled in the second half, it was the result of shooting too quickly. But it never felt like a struggle to get a good shot, like we’d seen for much of the season. If we’ve added a more versatile, motion-based approach, we’ll be tougher to guard.

Zzzzzzzzzz?
Is Brian Zoubek ready to hibernate? Has he lost confidence and the ability to play against guys his own size? Will Duke stop looking to run some stuff through him? Or, can he challenge himself to play better? Can he bottle whatever he has shown in spurts to give us 15-20 quality minutes each night? There’s no question that just by taking up (and holding) space, he makes our defense better. There’s no question that just by entering the ball to him at the mid-post, our offense presents a different look. From there, it’s up to Brian. He can hold his ground on D, avoid fouling, and move just well enough to stay with his guy and cover for his teammates. On offense, he can control the ball, use his excellent vision to find teammates, hit a hook shot or two, and crash the offensive boards. What’s it gonna be?

Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. For Duke, that means pushing the ball off turnovers and rebounds, running inbounds plays successfully, attacking early to get teams in foul trouble, so a reach-in with eight minutes left sends us to the line. Pay attention to this – it will be really important.

Will the offseason changes pay off?
Supposedly, Duke altered its conditioning program to have fresher legs later in the season. We decided to play bigger so Singler wouldn’t get pounded night after night. Supposedly we changed the practice routine as well. So, we’re getting to the point in the season where those changes – hopefully – should be manifested in Duke’s play.

You’ll notice there are plenty of issues some people have lamented that I haven’t identified. For instance, I never mentioned Elliot Williams or Miles Plumlee, and that’s because I believe if the other issues are resolved, their contributions become luxuries, not necessities. I didn’t worry about an over-reliance on threes, because if Duke is running a successful motion offense, that’ll take care of itself, too.

The important thing, again, is that this team still has plenty of upside. I can’t stress that strongly enough. I can’t guarantee that the guys will reach their potential, but it exists. And as long as it exists, we have to remain hopeful that this can be a really special season.

Yes, unlikely, unlikely, no change, no, apparently not, yes, not if you launch mostly threes, don't think it matters

[loran16]

Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.

Nolan will make or break this team. Case example today. Our D has been really poor since his play has deteriorated.

[Kedsy]

Great job, Jumbo. All your points are good, but your first point really resonates with me. Last year at this time, although we obviously peaked in the Carolina game, our play had been very consistent, so when it dropped off we never recovered. This year appears different, because our play has been so inconsistent.

If you look at Pomeroy's rankings, he has a rating for "consistency." Duke ranks 300th in the country in that ranking (out of 344), meaning we are one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. Carolina's, in contrast, is #68, meaning what you see is pretty much what you get. There's not a lot of room for improvement there.

What does this mean for Duke? To me, it means we're dangerous. Sure, we could lose to a BC or Michigan, but we could also play like the best team in the country if we get hot. Here's hoping, anyway.

[Kedsy]

Nolan will make or break this team. Case example today. Our D has been really poor since his play has deteriorated.

I agree. Nolan is a huge key for our future success this season.

[superdave]

Nice analysis.

I do think easy buckets would be a great sign because they typically come from great defense which come from intensity which will be lead by Nolan on the ball.

[RelativeWays]

Jumbo's list is missing a very important question:

Which item will be most important to you to survive the rest of this year, alcohol or antacid tablets?

[bfree]

A very inauspicious start to Phase IV.

Jumbo, when does Phase V start?

[Cicero]

Jumbo, when does Phase V start?

Presumably right after Phase IV ends, which is the end of the regular season...

the dawn of Phase IV, which we’ll consider the remainder of the regular season.

...therefore Phase V would begin with Duke's first game of the ACC Tournament. Hopefully Phase V (and VI, if the NCAA Tournament constitutes a separate phase) will be long-lasting!

[Kfanarmy]

Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?

Hard to say on this, but I see little evidence of set plays to stabilize Duke, or early timeouts for that matter, when the other team makes a run, both staples of 90's Duke teams.

Can Duke rediscover its identity?

I'm not sure what the identity is. Duke has had great half-court defense most of the year, but ineffective transition defense. When the team isn't hitting its shot, it has really struggled to contain the other teams offense. Early on, perhaps talent differential made up the difference...against athletic ACC teams, transition D seems to be a real weakness, and the jury is still out as to whether any significant change has occurred on offense. The team seems the same to me, perhaps this is really just a top 12-20 team that rose to the top of the rankings based on brand. Top 20 is good, just not what Duke fans were expecting.

...And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?

there are about 3 shooters on the team that seem to be in a confidence crisis, as soon as they miss a couple, they begin hesitating or not shooting...putting an awful lot of pressure and expectation on Singler and Henderson

Zzzzzzzzzz?

The problem, if there is one, with Zoubek is no latitude for a mistake. His first gets him yanked from the game. He wasn't there against UNC for the final 16 or late in the 2nd half against BC for who knows what reason...I'm guessing there must be one, but am not sure the numbers reflect it. Can't be good for his long-term confidence, nor for the chemistry of the team.

Can we get easy baskets?

No one is looking to push, and when they do, it seems, often as not the ball is thrown away. how many times against Carolina did Duke pull up with numbers going down on the offensive end in the 2nd half. I think Wake's blocks affected the team significantly.

The team has a lot of upside, but there seems to be so many small issues that it will be difficult to adjust them all. 3 point shooting does not seem to be getting better, so this team, IMO needs to learn some inside out, set plays...even if "inside" means having someone who can pass from the foul line.

[RepoMan]

Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

I think this is the key for this team.

Thanks, Jumbo.

[miramar]

Excellent post, as always.

Re: Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level.

That’s an important point, but also the real mystery here. We’re almost in March and this team clearly has the ability to do so much better, something that we couldn’t really say the last couple of years.

Re: We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

I haven’t given up yet--and won't until the last buzzer sounds--but I’m worried.

Many of the issues in the post are problems that a team like Duke should not have at this point of the season. It’s like the G-Man’s comment last night that Coach K hasn’t given up on Zoubek, Thomas, and Plumlee yet. Although Lance played well, the fact that he mentioned it tells you that it’s a real concern, although only one of many.

[NSDukeFan]

Yes, unlikely, unlikely, no change, no, apparently not, yes, not if you launch mostly threes, don't think it matters

Wow, I hope you are ok and are still going to watch the best part of the season.

Thanks again for the analysis Jumbo. I look forward to the Phase analyses.
I agree very much with easy baskets. If we are playing against an equally talented team, the difference between a win and a loss can often be points off turnovers, rebounds and easy (fast-break especially) baskets. Fortunately, rebounding has been much better than the past couple of years, turnover differential I believe was positive until our recent defensive struggles and a few fast-break easy buckets and/or preventing the opposition from these could be very valuable.
I hope we can regain our defensive identity, so that if we are having a poor shooting night, we still have a chance to win.
I am excited for another month and a half of exciting basketball.

[ncexnyc]

Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?

It's only fitting that Jumbo listed this question first, as it's the most crucial one on his list.

Based on what I saw Sunday night and at the close of Phase III, I'd have to say yes. We don't appear to have it in us to play a full game. We just don't seem constitent on either end of the court.

Our line-up is for the most part set, with minor adjustments such as Greg for Nolan and Lance for Brian being the only feasible changes. The time for Ewill, Marty and Miles to become major cogs in this team is past and any attempt to get them more time will only disrupt an already shaky team chemistry.

Jumbo talked about other teams now playing as hard as Duke did earlier in the season, but I believe it's more that Duke presents a set line-up sooner, while other teams take the chance on giving freshman more on court team, with the view that it's where you finish the season as a team being more important than where you start it. I know there are people who disagree with my viewpoint and say players earn their oncourt time in practice, but why has Duke appeared to peak to early, while other teams surge at the end?

The season isn't lost, but Coach K needs to realize exactly what he has and optimize the abilities of the players he has. In other words the staff needs to put the players into positions where they can succeed.

[77devil]

Wow, I hope you are ok and are still going to watch the best part of the season.

I am fine and I always watch with great interest until the end of the Duke season no matter what. I am also a pragmatist and very circumspect about the prospects for this team. Jumbo asked questions and I answered them objectively, from my perspective, and without emotion.

I was a student during the worst of times for Duke basketball. Even though expectations are so much higher now, the current situation is a walk in the park by comparison.

[trinity92]

Nolan is the key-- if he doesn't develop into a true playmaker, not only will we struggle this season, but next season, and probably the one after, unless we nab John Wall or Tyler Thornton arrives ready to start, both unlikely outcomes.

Nolan is also the key to easy baskets. He's shown he can carve up a defense and get to the hoop or dish for easy baskets, but he hasn't done it in a good long while.

Going into this season without recruiting a banger/post player or a true PG, the only reasons we had to believe our results would be different from last year's were the following:

-Z or LT would improve dramatically, or Plumlee would be a stud. Didn't happen
-Nolan would run the team effectively. Happened early, but totally gone recently.
-Everyone else would be a year older, wiser and stronger. I'd say this has been the case, but not enough to outweigh our failures to improve in the other categories.

As a result of the foregoing, our Team Identity at this point is that we're eerily close to being the same team as last year. We even started our recent slide at a similar time to last year's: After our most impressive win of the season-- last year @ Carolina, this year at home vs. Maryland.

I am not writing off the season, both because of the royal blue coursing through my veins and because I see some of the same flashes of upside Jumbo does. Even acknowledging our shortcomings, I see us making the second weekend of the tournament, and with the right matchups, some luck and renewed vigor, plus a sprinkling of Coach K's magic pixie dust, a FF run.

Go Duke!