And the fourth and last #1 seed goes to?

**houstondukie** · 03-10-2009, 04:43 PM

Everyone seems to think that UNC, Pitt, and UCONN have locked up #1 seeds, and I agree as long as they win at least one game in their respective conference tourneys.

So who gets the last #1 seed?

IMO, it comes down to 6 teams for the last spot:

Louisville
Oklahoma
Duke
Wake Forest
Michigan State
Memphis

All of these teams have to win their conference tournaments to be considered for the #1 seed.

And if Louisville wins the Big East tourney to add to their regular season championship, they will no doubt get the final #1 seed.

So here's my question...

If Louisville does NOT win the Big East tournament, who gets the last #1 seed if Oklahoma, Michigan State, Memphis, and either Duke or Wake Forest EACH WINS THEIR RESPECTIVE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS.

**hurleyfor3** · 03-10-2009, 04:54 PM

Not us. I think it's between Memphis and Oklahoma, with OU probably needing to win its tournament *and* Memphis to lose its.

The Ncaa doesn't always go on straight rankings/ rpi/ pomeroy/ whatever dork polls it says it doesn't look at. Geographical balance matters, too.

**chrisheery** · 03-10-2009, 05:01 PM

I think we would need to win the ACC tourney over a fully manned UNC (after beating Wake as well). We would also need Oklahoma to not win the Big 12 tourney. I don't think the C-USA tourney holds much weight. That said, we could fall to a 3 seed if we don't win at least 2 games in the tourney.

**crimsonandblue** · 03-10-2009, 05:03 PM

I don't think Memphis can get there. They've got four top-50 RPI wins. Period.

If OU runs the table, I think they can get there. Particularly if they beat MU and KU to win the tourney (even if it is being held in Oklahoma City). If not, if Michigan State wins the Big 10, I'd give them the nod.

Maybe the committee will disagree, but beating up on conference USA, while not dominating your out of conference quality opponents isn't a recipe for a one seed.

**houstondukie** · 03-10-2009, 05:05 PM

Originally Posted by hurleyfor3

Not us. I think it's between Memphis and Oklahoma, with OU probably needing to win its tournament *and* Memphis to lose its.

The Ncaa doesn't always go on straight rankings/ rpi/ pomeroy/ whatever dork polls it says it doesn't look at. Geographical balance matters, too.

So let's say Duke beats Boston College, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this weekend and wins the ACC championship. You think the NCAA will still give the number 1 seed to Memphis?

(assuming it wins conf. usa tourney, of course)

I don't agree.

If Duke wins the ACC tournament by beating Wake Forest and UNC, I think it needs only Louisville and Oklahoma to lose to grab the final 1 seed.*

* even if Michigan St and Memphis run the table

So here's how I rank them (as if they all win out):

1. Louisville
2. Oklahoma
3. Duke or Wake Forest
4. Michigan St.
5. Memphis - no way the NCAA picks Memphis as the 1 seed if teams 1-4 win their tourneys too. Memphis needs a lot of teams to lose.

**CameronBornAndBred** · 03-10-2009, 05:07 PM

I think it would go to Oklahoma. I hope so, it will be fun to watch Capel go in as a 1.

**hurleyfor3** · 03-10-2009, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by houstondukie

So let's say Duke beats Boston College, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this weekend and wins the ACC championship. You think the NCAA will still give the number 1 seed to Memphis?

We won't beat those three teams. (Which is not the same as saying we won't win the tournament.)

Has the ncaa ever split the 1-seeds two to one conference and two to another? That's just not in character.

**houstondukie** · 03-10-2009, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by hurleyfor3

We won't beat those three teams. (Which is not the same as saying we won't win the tournament.)

Has the ncaa ever split the 1-seeds two to one conference and two to another? That's just not in character.

Isn't it funny how 6 weeks ago, every expert was saying it was not just possible but probable that the ACC and BIG EAST would split the #1 seeds?

Could still happen, but nobody seems to mention it much anymore.

**feldspar** · 03-10-2009, 05:17 PM

Here's what I think needs to happen for Duke to get a #1 seed (in order):

Oklahoma has to NOT reach the semi-finals of the Big XII tournament

Michigan State has to NOT reach the semi-finals of the Big Televen tournament

Louisville CAN NOT win the Big East tournament

Memphis CAN NOT win their conference tournament

Duke HAS to win the ACC Tournament, preferably beating Wake Forest and UNC in the process

That's a tall order.

**Chard** · 03-13-2009, 09:56 AM

Anyone know what happened to the "predict Duke's NCAA seed" thread? The one where we were discussing what Duke's seed would be based on the results of the ACC tournament. Things just got a bit dicey with some of the projected #1's not winning one game in their tourneys.

**blueprofessor** · 03-13-2009, 10:04 AM

UNC,UCon, Louisville, and Michigan State.Just guessing.

Whom do we want...Louisville or MState?

Best--Blueprof

**Highlander** · 03-13-2009, 10:38 AM

Originally Posted by feldspar

Here's what I think needs to happen for Duke to get a #1 seed (in order):

Oklahoma has to NOT reach the semi-finals of the Big XII tournament

One down...

**InSpades** · 03-13-2009, 10:40 AM

Curious as to why people think UConn will get a #1 over Pitt. They basically have the exact same record (Pitt has 1 more non-conference win). Pitt has a higher SoS and most importantly, Pitt swept UConn in the regular season. I think it's still possible that they both get #1s, but more likely 1 of them gets a #1 and one of them gets a #2 and the #1 should go to Pitt.

**feldspar** · 03-13-2009, 10:46 AM

I’m becoming more and more convinced that, if Louisville doesn’t win the Big East tournament and Duke does win the ACC Tournament, Duke is pretty much a lock for a #1 seed.

Why? How bad would it look for the committee to award #1 seeds to three teams who didn’t get the job done in their respective conference tournaments and deny top bids to teams who did?

Imagine, for a moment, that Louisville loses tonight or tomorrow and Duke wins on Sunday. Then imagine the scenarios that everyone is talking about:

1 seeds:

UNC
UConn
Louisville
Michigan State/Memphis

Three teams that didn’t win their conference tournaments as #1 seeds? I don’t think the committee will allow that. Duke will end up taking Louisville or UConn's spot.

I hope this Duke team knows that they are now literally playing with a #1 seed on the line, because I really believe that, at this point, they are.

**blueprofessor** · 03-13-2009, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by feldspar

Here's what I think needs to happen for Duke to get a #1 seed (in order):

Oklahoma has to NOT reach the semi-finals of the Big XII tournament

Michigan State has to NOT reach the semi-finals of the Big Televen tournament

Louisville CAN NOT win the Big East tournament

Memphis CAN NOT win their conference tournament

Duke HAS to win the ACC Tournament, preferably beating Wake Forest and UNC in the process

Michigan State's not reaching the semis---- 10%
Louisville's not winning the Big Easy-------- 25%
Memphis's not winning conference tourney--20%
Duke's winning ACC tourney----------------30%

Probability that all 4 events occur: .1x.25x.2.x.3=.0015

Compute your own percentages and multiply .

TALL ORDER,indeed! But ,there is a chance.

Best regards--Blueprof

**RoyalBlue08** · 03-13-2009, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by feldspar

I’m becoming more and more convinced that, if Louisville doesn’t win the Big East tournament and Duke does win the ACC Tournament, Duke is pretty much a lock for a #1 seed.

Why? How bad would it look for the committee to award #1 seeds to three teams who didn’t get the job done in their respective conference tournaments and deny top bids to teams who did?

Imagine, for a moment, that Louisville loses tonight or tomorrow and Duke wins on Sunday. Then imagine the scenarios that everyone is talking about:

1 seeds:

UNC
UConn
Louisville
Michigan State/Memphis

Three teams that didn’t win their conference tournaments as #1 seeds? I don’t think the committee will allow that. Duke will end up taking Louisville or UConn's spot.

I hope this Duke team knows that they are now literally playing with a #1 seed on the line, because I really believe that, at this point, they are.

I think you got your #1 seeds right except Pitt is a 1 seed over UConn (whom they beat twice). I think UNC and Pitt are still locked in. Memphis will be there unless they slip up in Conf USA and the last one goes to Louisville if they could win their tournament, then Michigan State if they win their tournament...and if neither of those happen that Duke can sneak in with an ACC tourney title.

**tbyers11** · 03-13-2009, 11:22 AM

Originally Posted by Chard

Anyone know what happened to the "predict Duke's NCAA seed" thread? The one where we were discussing what Duke's seed would be based on the results of the ACC tournament. Things just got a bit dicey with some of the projected #1's not winning one game in their tourneys.

I was looking for that thread yesterday as well and it just disappeared. It wasn't locked and slid to the 2nd page. It was deleted. Strange.

With Pitt, OK and UConn all losing in the quarters of their tourneys, things have opened for the Devils to possibly get a 1 seed. They still need to win the ACC. But if they beat BC/Wake/UNC to do it, I don't see how the committee can place Mich St or Memphis over them no matter what they do in their tourneys.

Right now I think the Number 1 seeds look like:

Fairly set
UNC (assuming they don't lose to VT and Lawson's toe makes it to next weekend

)
Pitt (they beat UConn twice and don't have the bad losses that Louisville has)

If all these teams win out, in order they deserve #1
Louisville
Duke
Michigan State (beating Minn/Wisc/Illinois wouldn't raise their profile as much Duke's three potential victories would)
Wake (they are just a slight notch below Duke right now and beating MD/Duke/UNC would boost them greatly as well)

Could still get #1 if some combination of the above 4 teams don't take care of business
UConn
Memphis

No shot at #1
Oklahoma

This assumes that Memphis wins the CUSA tourney. IMO, if any of the 4 teams above UConn and Memphis win out, I think they are easily more deserving of a #1 than Memphis. We have debated back and forth how good they are this year. My opinion is that they are not that good. I would be shocked if they made the FF and think they are likely to lose in the Sweet 16.

However, no matter how good they may be their resume simply is not worthy of a number 1 seed. They might sneak into it via attrition in the other conference tourneys but I feel their resume maxes out at a 2 seed.

**mgtr** · 03-13-2009, 11:29 AM

I remember a few years ago a discussion (probably on TV) that the committee doesn't give much weight to wins on selection Sunday (ie, ACC championship). They pretty well have things set before then, and would be very reluctant to make meaningful changes.

**RoyalBlue08** · 03-13-2009, 12:57 PM

I agree I don't think Memphis deserves a 1 seed, but it is a big difference between what I think is fair and what I think is going to happen unfortunately.

**houstondukie** · 03-13-2009, 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by feldspar

I’m becoming more and more convinced that, if Louisville doesn’t win the Big East tournament and Duke does win the ACC Tournament, Duke is pretty much a lock for a #1 seed.

Why? How bad would it look for the committee to award #1 seeds to three teams who didn’t get the job done in their respective conference tournaments and deny top bids to teams who did?

Imagine, for a moment, that Louisville loses tonight or tomorrow and Duke wins on Sunday. Then imagine the scenarios that everyone is talking about:

1 seeds:

UNC
UConn
Louisville
Michigan State/Memphis

Three teams that didn’t win their conference tournaments as #1 seeds? I don’t think the committee will allow that. Duke will end up taking Louisville or UConn's spot.

I hope this Duke team knows that they are now literally playing with a #1 seed on the line, because I really believe that, at this point, they are.

I agree. Duke is not being discussed AT ALL for a 1 seed.

Neither is Wake Forest. If they beat Duke and UNC to win the ACC championship, that gives them a 4-1 record against Duke/UNC.

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And the fourth and last #1 seed goes to?

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feldspar, what are the odds now?

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