(pre) ACC Tournament discussion thread

[DBFAN]

I think we have a good draw, I mean we will probably get BC the first game (of course you never know with the inconsistency of BC) that will be a revenge game, and then we could get either Wake or Maryland on the Second round. Maryland would be worn out if they beat Wake, and with Wake having some young kids, it may be hard for them to figure out how to stretch themselves out, and not tire out.

BTW: Was very proud of this team today, just think, if we could get Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson all clicking at once, that would be a scary team.

Go Duke

[jipops]

I have no clue what to predict for this one. The Hokies could come out with the title on this one.

This thing could have the type of build up similar to the nba Western Conference playoffs had last season. Almost everyone is a tough out and there is some excellent talent on display.

[feldspar]

I have no clue what to predict for this one. The Hokies could come out with the title on this one.

This thing could have the type of build up similar to the nba Western Conference playoffs had last season. Almost everyone is a tough out and there is some excellent talent on display.

Interesting. I like this comparison.

I think this year's tournament, at least the Thursday/Friday games, will be MUCH more entertaining than last year's. Out of the first 8 games last year, only one was decided by less than ten points.

I don't see that happening next year.

[riverside6]

For those interested, we're running an ACC Tournament Bracket Contest.

Just like the NCAA tourney contests you do every year but for the ACC tourney. Consider it a warmup for the next weekend.

[Greg_Newton]

I think our chances of containing Rice would be much better in a rematch with EWill defending him.

True... I try to hesitate to lay so many expectations on Elliot so early, but he seems very mentally tough for his age.

Also, Carolina might be in for a tough game Friday afternoon. Whether their opponent is Miami or VT, it will be a dangerous team that is coming off of a solid win the day before and that will be well aware of the fact that if they beat UNC, they are likely in the NCAA tourney, and if they lose, they are out. BC is a probably a better team than either of them, but they won't be playing for their lives against Duke like Miami/VT will be against Carolina. Just a thought.

[jipops]

Interesting. I like this comparison.

I think this year's tournament, at least the Thursday/Friday games, will be MUCH more entertaining than last year's. Out of the first 8 games last year, only one was decided by less than ten points.

I don't see that happening next year.

Well the ACC has done it's best to destroy the best thing it has ever had, it's tournament. Would be nice if this year provided some sort of oasis.

[HDB]

Well the ACC has done it's best to destroy the best thing it has ever had, it's tournament. Would be nice if this year provided some sort of oasis.

Enlighten me --- how has the ACC done its best to destroy the ACC tournament? I still think it's the best Conference tourney going.

[wisteria]

Enlighten me --- how has the ACC done its best to destroy the ACC tournament? I still think it's the best Conference tourney going.

I could be wrong, but perhaps he's referring to ACCT being moved away from Greensboro?

[jv001]

Whoever goes further between Wake/Duke will have a great chance of getting the 2 seed in Greensboro.

You make a good point, but I would not mind seeing Duke get a location that will not be filled with unc fans. It happened in Charlotte and will happen in Gbo if we play there. I hate unc more every day. Go Duke!

[Duvall]

Enlighten me --- how has the ACC done its best to destroy the ACC tournament? I still think it's the best Conference tourney going.

Well, this year they moved the tournament to the worst basketball venue in the country. So there's that.

[marinbobbyduhon]

Whoever goes further between Wake/Duke will have a great chance of getting the 2 seed in Greensboro.

I need someone to explain to me why Wake Forest received the #2 seed in the ACC tourney. Both teams went 11-5 in ACC play, they split the season's series, each winning at home, although we looked substantially better than them, IMO, in our win at Cameron. Also, because of the unbalanced schedule, didn't someone post earlier that Duke had the toughest schedule in the ACC this year. So why are we the #3 seed?

Just curious, as I believe that we earned the #2 seed and were/are the better team, specifically because of our schedule and who we beat.

Thanks!

[Duvall]

I need someone to explain to me why Wake Forest received the #2 seed in the ACC tourney. Both teams went 11-5 in ACC play, they split the season's series, each winning at home, although we looked substantially better than them, IMO, in our win at Cameron. Also, because of the unbalanced schedule, didn't someone post earlier that Duke had the toughest schedule in the ACC this year. So why are we the #3 seed?

Just curious, as I believe that we earned the #2 seed and were/are the better team, specifically because of our schedule and who we beat.

Thanks!

Wake beat Carolina.

After head-to-head, ties are broken by record against the team that finishes first in the standings. If that doesn't break the tie, records against the second-place team are considered, and so on.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

I think Maryland is a good team, but they will have a let down in the tournament. State is playing well right now, and will bet them.

I think it will end up being UNC vs. VT, FSU vs. Clemson, Wake vs. NCSU, and Duke vs. BC.

Then UNC will top Clemson and Wake will top Duke in the semis.

And like it or not, UNC will beat Wake for the ACC title

We'll beat Wake.
Love, Ima

[CDu]

Wake beat Carolina.

After head-to-head, ties are broken by record against the team that finishes first in the standings. If that doesn't break the tie, records against the second-place team are considered, and so on.

Exactly. The ACC doesn't consider strength of schedule in their seedings. It's purely win/loss overall and then win/loss against the top of the conference on down.

[Olympic Fan]

The fact that Wake is the 2 seed and Duke the 3 seed doesn't mean much, except that Duke has to play the late game Friday -- that's a bummer.

The fact that Duke and Wake are in the same bracket and would have to meet Saturday could have a huge impact on NCAA seedings. Only one of the two is going to be a No. 2 NCAA seed (you figure UConn, Pitt and UNC are No. 1 locks; Oklahoma, Louisville and Memphis are vying for the last No. 1 -- that leaves two more No. 2 seeds from among Kansas, Michigan State and the two ACC teams).

The difference between a No. 2 and a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament is not that big a deal ... but the ACC team that's seeded higher -- Duke or Wake -- should get the other Greensboro pod (UNC is locked into the other). That's two NCAA games in Greensboro rather than Philadelphia, Miami or Dayton.

Duke and Wake are so close nationally that Saturday will be seen as a tiebreaker game (or if one loses Friday, the other will win the tiebreaker by default).

Other NCAA implications? I agree that the winner of the Miami/VPI 8-9 game can play itself back into contention by upsetting UNC Friday -- so whichever the Heels face in the quarters will be a desperate team, fighting for its life ... and both have played UNC close. Wake could also face a desperate team on Friday if Maryland beats NC State in the 7-10 game.

I'm not that a quarterfinal win would get Miami/VPI or Maryland in the field, but I'm pretty sure that without such a win, those teams are out.

[diveonthefloor]

I almost wonder whether it would be better for Duke NOT to play in Greensboro pod...That place will be filled with UNC fans who will be vociferous against us. Other venues may be mildly anti-Duke, but not nearly as much as Gboro has the potential to be.

[roywhite]

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb.../confonly.html

A quick look at team stats for in-conference games only reveals some interesting points:

Duke is very ordinary in most team defense stats as ranked against other conference teams:
9th in FG% defense
7th in 3-pt FG% defense
8th in rebound margin
11th in blocked shots
3rd in steals

There is one category that Duke leads (by a sizable margin):
#1 in Turnover Margin; giving up 11.1 turnovers/ game and gaining 16.3 turnovers/ game

I don't know for sure but I suspect this margin has increased somewhat with recent lineup changes; we take care of the ball well, and force turnovers. It's a key path to success in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

[DukeUsul]

I almost wonder whether it would be better for Duke NOT to play in Greensboro pod...That place will be filled with UNC fans who will be vociferous against us. Other venues may be mildly anti-Duke, but not nearly as much as Gboro has the potential to be.

This is a good point. Playing in Philly would be much friendlier than playing in front of way too many heels fans.

[BlueintheFace]

I want me some Clemson and I want it BAAAAD!

If we could beat BC and then Clemson in the championship, then Carolina would be the only team we played this season that we did not beat.

That would be okay by me, but I think the most important thing is just to make it to the championship. If we do that, I believe we have locked up a #2 seed.

[mehmattski]

I'm a sucker for stats, so I thought I would take a look at the chances for each team in the ACC tournament using the log5 prediction method. Briefly, you take the winning percentage of each team to calculate the chances of each team winning a matchup. Tally that up across the whole bracket and you come up with something like this:



Where each column is the percentage chance that a team will advance to that round. My statistics are generated from Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings, taking only the raw offensive and defensive ratings from ACC games only.

If you would like to see more predictions, based on full-season data, points for/against, and simple winning percentage, I have a more in depth post here. Anyway, using only statistics from ACC games, Duke is still in very good shape to make the finals of the ACC tournament.