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  1. #21
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    I would personally be very surprised if Miami were to win their next two games and then get passed over by the committee, especially if they can also get a win or two in the ACC tourney. People have been speculating all season that 8 wins in the ACC might very well be enough this year, and Miami's solid RPI combined with their 3 OT ACC losses and blowout win against Wake Forest gives them a pretty good case in my book (especially if they finish the regular season with 4 straight wins, which they should). Perhaps I'm biased because I've always liked Jack McClinton, but I would have a hard time skipping over them.
    If you give Miami a bid, I think you’d be very hard pressed to not give Maryland a bid (assuming they beat Virginia this weekend and finish 8-8 in the ACC).

    Maryland has won some big games this year. Yes, they are their usual schizophrenic selves, losing against crappy teams but getting hyped up for the big ones, but their resume is certainly worthy of getting a bid considering they come out of the ACC and all of their conference losses have been against the top tier of the ACC.

  2. #22
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    --A big concern is the 8-9 game in the ACCT. Some bubble team is going to have to lose that game, and that's bad.
    The more I think about it, the more I agree with this point and its implications.

    Most likely, you're going to have Maryland and Miami in that game.

    I think the loser of that game has a really good chance of getting overlooked by the committee, unfortunately.

  3. #23

    Not all records the same

    I am interested in the fact that the unbalanced ACC scheduled hasn't entered into this discussion. I am aware that the RPI and the Pom rankings account for strength of scheduled, etc.

    But for those trying to use ACC records as proxies in their scenarios should consider who the teams have played. It hasn't gone unnoticed on this board that Duke has had the toughest ACC schedule by far. One game each against the 4 bottom ACC teams. So not all 8-8 or 9-7 records are equivilent.

    Which brings me to the tie breaker for seeding purposes for the ACC tourney. If we tie with UNC for reguar season, #1, I am inder the impression that we start comparing records against the next best conference team to break the tie. In this case, we want Wake to be third as we were 1-1 and UNC was 0-1 against them. UNC wins the tie breaker if Clemson is third. (Please correct me if I am wrong).

    Wouldn't it be nice if the tie breaker was who had the tougher ACC schedule? At least for this year...

  4. #24
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Atldukie79 View Post
    I am interested in the fact that the unbalanced ACC scheduled hasn't entered into this discussion. I am aware that the RPI and the Pom rankings account for strength of scheduled, etc.

    But for those trying to use ACC records as proxies in their scenarios should consider who the teams have played. It hasn't gone unnoticed on this board that Duke has had the toughest ACC schedule by far. One game each against the 4 bottom ACC teams. So not all 8-8 or 9-7 records are equivilent.

    Which brings me to the tie breaker for seeding purposes for the ACC tourney. If we tie with UNC for reguar season, #1, I am inder the impression that we start comparing records against the next best conference team to break the tie. In this case, we want Wake to be third as we were 1-1 and UNC was 0-1 against them. UNC wins the tie breaker if Clemson is third. (Please correct me if I am wrong).

    Wouldn't it be nice if the tie breaker was who had the tougher ACC schedule? At least for this year...

    Well, you have to look at more than just Clemson and WFU, though.

    There are two teams (Duke, UNC) that have a possibility of finishing 12-4.

    There is one team that can finish 11-5 (WFU).

    There is the possibility of FOUR teams finishing at 10-6.

    If Clemson beats WFU, FSU beats VaTech, and BC beats NCSU and GaTech, you'll have a logjam at third place.

    We're probably going to have either Clemson or Wake Forest on our side of the bracket. I'd rather have Wake Forest, personally.

  5. #25
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    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville

    bubble teams...

    Quote Originally Posted by Atldukie79 View Post
    Wouldn't it be nice if the tie breaker was who had the tougher ACC schedule? At least for this year...
    That would just make too much sense, wouldn't it?

    Seeing as that's unfortunately not the case though, does anyone know how 7-8-9 would go if VT/Miami/Maryland all finish 8-8 (which is fairly likely, unless VT goes 7-9)? If I'm reading right it looks like it would be Maryland, then VT, then Miami, seeing as Maryland beat VT in their meeting and split with Miami, and that VT beat Miami in their meeting. In that scenario, I could see strong cases being made for both Maryland (if they at least beat the 10 seed) and whoever wins the 8/9 game, even if they drop their next games. Which would mean that, at the least, getting 8 teams in the tourney is a very legitimate possibility at this point. 9 would be pretty tough.

    Or maybe I've got this all completely backwards?

  6. #26
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    That would just make too much sense, wouldn't it?

    Seeing as that's unfortunately not the case though, does anyone know how 7-8-9 would go if VT/Miami/Maryland all finish 8-8 (which is fairly likely, unless VT goes 7-9)? If I'm reading right it looks like it would be Maryland, then VT, then Miami, seeing as Maryland beat VT in their meeting and split with Miami, and that VT beat Miami in their meeting. In that scenario, I could see strong cases being made for both Maryland (if they at least beat the 10 seed) and whoever wins the 8/9 game, even if they drop their next games. Which would mean that, at the least, getting 8 teams in the tourney is a very legitimate possibility at this point. 9 would be pretty tough.

    Or maybe I've got this all completely backwards?
    Once tonight's games are done, I'm gonna do a complete overview of where things stand and the scenarios given this weekend's upcoming games, including tiebreakers.

  7. #27
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    Feb 2009
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    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by feldspar View Post
    Once tonight's games are done, I'm gonna do a complete overview of where things stand and the scenarios given this weekend's upcoming games, including tiebreakers.
    Sounds great. Man, do I love March.

  8. #28
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post

    I'm going to raise the same concern I did in the other thread, before I was roundly shouted down: you've got to look at the whole field when you try to assess this thing. Blanket assertions that if so-and-so goes 8-8, then they're in--those are meaningless if you're not looking at the whole field. If you just make assertions based on an arbitrary notion of what's good enough, it's sound and fury, signifying nothing.
    http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

    Gotta agree with Throaty here. In basketball, as in so many things in life, those doing the analysis almost always have bias towards focusing on their own impact on the prescribed outcome. (Think of US politicians in the 80's claiming that WE brought down the Soviet Union when in fact most experts in the rest of the world would tell you that the Soviet Union mostly crumbled from within...)

    Results from mid-major tournaments, at least as much as the impact of ACC bubble-teams' performances, will determine how many ACC teams are dancing in March.

    Think, hypothetically, that based on just ACC team performances, the committee would rank MD as the 65th team to make the NCAA's, and VPI as the 63rd best, and BC as 57th best.

    But then you get 3rd, or 4th or 6th-place teams - teams that otherwise would have had no chance of dancing - then winning their mid-major tournaments. But in doing so they displace their conference's best team that was considered a lock and has, say 25-28 wins. The committee would be hard-pressed not to still invite that 28-win, first-place squad. So, as the dominos fall, these teams with poor (or even losing) records, but who won their tournaments, have to be slid into the list of 65 qualifiers (even if they ultimately receive a 12 - 16 seed). So then MD goes from the committee's 65-th best/qualifying team, to 66th, or 67th or whatever. And they are out. If, in my hypothetical rankings above, three such otherwise unqualified teams win their tournamnts, then VPI slides from #63 to #66... and out of the dance. So, ultimately, a team like VPI can win ALL of their remaining games and still not dance, depending on what happens elsewhere. If you, like me, want to see a LOT off ACC teams playing in the NCAA's, then root for all of the Mid-Major favorites to win their conference tournaments. The more upsets there are, the harder it becomes for the ACC to max out.

    All that said, I expect ultimately to see 7 ACC teams in the tournament, though +/- 1 is possible. Locks: UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson. Very probable: FSU. Probable: BC. Bubble: VPI, Miami, & MD. And it seems likely that at least one of those bubble teams qualify. Two bubble teams would be great.

    -BDBD

    P.S. Also very interested in WHERE Duke is going to play. Given that RPI/SOS, a #1 seed seems still within reach, but probably requires an ACC championship.
    Last edited by throatybeard; 03-04-2009 at 08:48 PM.

  9. #29
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by feldspar View Post
    Once tonight's games are done, I'm gonna do a complete overview of where things stand and the scenarios given this weekend's upcoming games, including tiebreakers.
    BC and Miami appear to have gotten the wrong road map. The Eagles are down 8 with 4 to play, and the Canes got pasted in the first half.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  10. #30
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Brookline, MA
    BC lost by 5 at NC State, which they did not need. You would think that they could get to 9-7 in the conference since they end the season at home vs. Georgia Tech....except that Georgia Tech is beating Miami by 13 with 3:50 to go! If this score holds up, it's a crushing loss for Miami since they would be 6-9 in the conference with a game against NC State to end the season. Not a good night for ACC bubble teams with Va Tech also losing to Carolina.

  11. #31
    Yep, Miami lost, too. Looks like they're sunk. And could BC get any less consistent?

  12. #32
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by arydolphin View Post
    BC lost by 5 at NC State, which they did not need. You would think that they could get to 9-7 in the conference since they end the season at home vs. Georgia Tech....except that Georgia Tech is beating Miami by 13 with 3:50 to go! If this score holds up, it's a crushing loss for Miami since they would be 6-9 in the conference with a game against NC State to end the season. Not a good night for ACC bubble teams with Va Tech also losing to Carolina.
    In the past 24 hours, the ACC went from a path to 9 teams to maybe only 6 or 7. Gaaak!

    BC lost to NC State. They must beat Ga Tech now and I think they even need to win a first round ACC tourney game against someone like Virginia or NC State. They should still get in, but they are not making it easy on themselves.

    Miami threw it away by losing by 10 to a really bad Ga Tech team. hey certainly must beat someone like Va Tech or Maryland in the ACC first round and might even need to beat Duke or UNC in the second round to have a prayer of getting in. Really, really bad loss.

    Va Tech must win at FSU -- a tall order. Either that or they may need an upset over an upper level team (Duke or UNC, most likely) in the ACC tourney.

    --Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans

  13. #33
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In the past 24 hours, the ACC went from a path to 9 teams to maybe only 6 or 7. Gaaak!

    BC lost to NC State. They must beat Ga Tech now and I think they even need to win a first round ACC tourney game against someone like Virginia or NC State. They should still get in, but they are not making it easy on themselves.

    Miami threw it away by losing by 10 to a really bad Ga Tech team. hey certainly must beat someone like Va Tech or Maryland in the ACC first round and might even need to beat Duke or UNC in the second round to have a prayer of getting in. Really, really bad loss.

    Va Tech must win at FSU -- a tall order. Either that or they may need an upset over an upper level team (Duke or UNC, most likely) in the ACC tourney.

    --Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans
    Right now, seven would be nice. VT and Maryland could very well lose @FSU and @UVa. I'd even say I'd expect both of them to lose those games. So we're very likely to have three teams sitting at 7-9 in conference. If that happens, honestly I'd have trouble making a case for any of them over, say, a 7-11 Georgetown team.

    I think we'll safely get six. A week ago, I felt really confident we'd get seven, and maybe eight. Now, I'm not confident we'll get seven, and I'd be really surprised to get eight.

  14. #34
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    Feb 2007
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    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In the past 24 hours, the ACC went from a path to 9 teams to maybe only 6 or 7. Gaaak! ...

    Miami ... might even need to beat Duke or UNC in the second round to have a prayer of getting in. ...

    Va Tech ... may need an upset over an upper level team (Duke or UNC, most likely) in the ACC tourney.

    --Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans
    I vote one beats UNC. Too bad for the other.

  15. #35
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Right now, seven would be nice. VT and Maryland could very well lose @FSU and @UVa. I'd even say I'd expect both of them to lose those games. So we're very likely to have three teams sitting at 7-9 in conference. If that happens, honestly I'd have trouble making a case for any of them over, say, a 7-11 Georgetown team.
    No. No, no, no. The NCAA Tournament should and must be conducted without the Georgetown Hoyas. Choosing an unusually strong set of teams to beat you should not qualify a team for the NCAA tournament.

  16. #36
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    Feb 2009
    Location
    Durham
    I think BC will be fine if they beat Ga Tech...Miami might have just sunk their ship though.

    I think nights like tonight should really put to rest the whole Big East vs the ACC arguement. Whether they like to admitt it or not, there are nights off in the Big East. Eventually you get to play Depaul or Rutgers or St. Johns or South Florida who have little to no talent and are pretty easy wins. In the ACC the "nights off" are teams like GA Tech and NC State and UVA..teams not performing well in conference, but teams with talent that they would love to have at the previously mentioned Big East schools. The bottom of the ACC is dangerous (just wait for the crazy upsets in Atlanta!), the bottom of the Big East is downright weak. No question the toughest conference top to bottom is the ACC!

  17. #37
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    No. No, no, no. The NCAA Tournament should and must be conducted without the Georgetown Hoyas. Choosing an unusually strong set of teams to beat you should not qualify a team for the NCAA tournament.
    No GTown, no Notre Dame, no Florida, no Kentucky, no Arizona, no Indiana.

    There should be some extra room in the tourney this year.

  18. #38
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    My views on the number of tournament bids the ACC receives are a little different. I believe it is better for the conference, in the long run, to receive less bids but have all the teams who go dancing perform better. Therefore, I hope we receive only six bids but all six teams win their first round game. I desire to see at least four ACC teams in the Sweet 16 and two in the Final Four.

    If we send nine teams dancing, but two or three lose their first game, what has the conference actually accomplished?

    Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, Clemson, FSU, and Maryland are my six choices. Though I realize BC is the more likely sixth bid.
    Bob Green

  19. #39
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    Dec 2008
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    I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death!
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    My views on the number of tournament bids the ACC receives are a little different. I believe it is better for the conference, in the long run, to receive less bids but have all the teams who go dancing perform better. Therefore, I hope we receive only six bids but all six teams win their first round game. I desire to see at least four ACC teams in the Sweet 16 and two in the Final Four.
    This is exactly what I was thinking AFTER last nights results. We always fall for the number of bids argument this time of year as though that is going to be the ultimate measure of strength, but the performance in the tournament is really what matters (and generates the most $$). Getting more bids does not settle any argument over which conference is stronger, but getting more teams into the sweet 16 and beyond does. We all know the ACC is strongest top to bottom, so why care about those that do not recognize this? Also, before we start thinking of the other ACC members (except unc) as brethren, there is a matter to be settled in Atlanta.

  20. #40
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    --Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans
    Agreed.

    Last night was not good.

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