Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 21 to 26 of 26
  1. #21

    Pitino on PTI

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Blair got in foul trouble on plays that didn't seem to amount to much. So, not sure that lesson is repeatable unless the zebras are calling it tight.

    Others who watched the whole game plus the replays may have a different view.

    sagegrouse
    Pitino was on PTI yesterday or the day before and said that the secret to beating Pitt was to attack Blair as he has a tendency to reach around and gets fouls. I wonder if Providence (Rick's old school) got the memo.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I am not here to dwell on what this means for Pitt. I am here to talk about the Big East and Providence.

    The Friars now go to 9-7 in the Big East with games left at Rutgers and at Villanova. If they beat Rutgers but lose to Nova (which would seem quite reasonable) they would be 18-12 (10-8) on the season. They would really only have one somewhat bad loss-- at the start of the season to a decent but not that good Northeastern team. They would also have non-conf losses to Baylor, BC, and St. Marys-- all of which are decent-good teams. Those losses were all on the road, so no big deal- though it is notable that Providence did not manage to beat any of those clubs. And, aside from this game against Pitt, Providence's resume of good wins is pretty pathetic. They beat Syracuse, but that ain't all that special. Aside from that, they have a pair of wins against Cincy and a win over Rhode Island-- they have not beaten any other teams in the top 80 or so.

    So, would an 18-12 (10-8) team from the BEast with only 1 or 2 (is Syracuse in?) wins against tournament teams make the NCAA tourney? I think probably not. They are currently 77th in the RPI, 73 in Sagarin, and 81 in Pomeroy. Those numbers will go up with the win over Pitt, but not hugely.

    The long and short of this is that Providence will not be another BEast team in the dance unless they follow up this win with one or two more against top 15 ranked BEast teams. I think that the better their conference record is, the worse it makes teams behind them in the BEast standings look. Teams like Syracuse (7-7), Notre Dame (6-8), and Cincy (7-7) are not happy to see Providence ahead of them in the standings.

    Hehehe... I want the ACC to get more in than the Big East. We need to shut up all those "experts" who claimed the Big East was the greatest of all time or some such nonsense earlier this year. Of course, with UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, and Marquette all likely to get top 3-4 seeds in the tournament and likely picks to make the Sweet 16, the BEast will have a gaudy NCAA Tournament record-- but I still want the ACC to get 7 or 8 and the Beast to get 6 or 7.

    --Jason "I know K likes Boeheim, but I really, really want Syracuse to miss the dance" Evans
    providence is in with its win against pitt (for now). lunardi had them in last friday and took them out on monday after its loss to nd. the above analysis just looks at providence in a vacuum and completely ignores what really matters -- the resumes of other extreme bubble teams. providence now has 2 wins over tournament locks (pitt and syracuse) with the pitt 1 being huge. i don't understand how you even can question syracuse at this point with OOC wins at kansas (yes, that really was a road game), at memphis and florida. not too many teams period have 3 wins like those (forget about bubble teams).

    lundardi's last 4 in on monday were BC, penn st, sd st and maryland. penn st and sd st lost last night so they are gone. which teams should take those 2 spots ahead of providence? temple, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (tennessee)? UAB, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (arizona)? cincinnati, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (unlv)? va tech, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (BC). michigan and ND have some nice wins but a lot more losses.

    now watch providence go out and lose to rutgers to once again toss them from the field.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    providence is in with its win against pitt (for now). lunardi had them in last friday and took them out on monday after its loss to nd. the above analysis just looks at providence in a vacuum and completely ignores what really matters -- the resumes of other extreme bubble teams. providence now has 2 wins over tournament locks (pitt and syracuse) with the pitt 1 being huge. i don't understand how you even can question syracuse at this point with OOC wins at kansas (yes, that really was a road game), at memphis and florida. not too many teams period have 3 wins like those (forget about bubble teams).

    lundardi's last 4 in on monday were BC, penn st, sd st and maryland. penn st and sd st lost last night so they are gone. which teams should take those 2 spots ahead of providence? temple, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (tennessee)? UAB, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (arizona)? cincinnati, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (unlv)? va tech, who has 1 win against an ncaat team (BC). michigan and ND have some nice wins but a lot more losses.

    now watch providence go out and lose to rutgers to once again toss them from the field.
    Providence is not in the field as of today. They are very close, but I suspect their bad losses and lack of good wins would keep them just barely out. It is worth noting that their RPI AFTER THE WIN LAST NIGHT is 71. Most years, the last at-large team in the dance has an RPI in the 50s, sometimes the 60s. Getting an at-large bid with an RPI in the 70sis fairly unusual. It can happen, but does not happen often. It would probably require no upsets in smaller conference tournaments and all the other major bubble teams to lose early in their conference tournaments.

    As for your cry of "who would get in instead," what about Michigan? They have the same number of losses as Providence plus they have more victories over tournament teams (Duke, UCLA, Illinois, and Minnesota). Michigan's RPI and computer rankings are significantly better then Providence. I find it hard to make any argument for Providence over Michigan.

    You appear to be relying a lot upon Lunardi, who (in my opinion) is not all that great of a source. I think he does a lot of projecting of future games and when his projections are wrong his picks look insane. I am trying to look at where teams are RIGHT NOW and am saying that Providence is not in the tourney today. When I look at what they have remaining, I think they will need to beat Villanova on the road or they will need to win a pair of games in the BEast tournament or they will miss the dance. It could happen, but I sorta doubt it will.

    -Jason "we shall see..." Evans

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Providence is not in the field as of today. They are very close, but I suspect their bad losses and lack of good wins would keep them just barely out. It is worth noting that their RPI AFTER THE WIN LAST NIGHT is 71. Most years, the last at-large team in the dance has an RPI in the 50s, sometimes the 60s. Getting an at-large bid with an RPI in the 70sis fairly unusual. It can happen, but does not happen often. It would probably require no upsets in smaller conference tournaments and all the other major bubble teams to lose early in their conference tournaments.

    As for your cry of "who would get in instead," what about Michigan? They have the same number of losses as Providence plus they have more victories over tournament teams (Duke, UCLA, Illinois, and Minnesota). Michigan's RPI and computer rankings are significantly better then Providence. I find it hard to make any argument for Providence over Michigan.

    You appear to be relying a lot upon Lunardi, who (in my opinion) is not all that great of a source. I think he does a lot of projecting of future games and when his projections are wrong his picks look insane. I am trying to look at where teams are RIGHT NOW and am saying that Providence is not in the tourney today. When I look at what they have remaining, I think they will need to beat Villanova on the road or they will need to win a pair of games in the BEast tournament or they will miss the dance. It could happen, but I sorta doubt it will.

    -Jason "we shall see..." Evans
    yes, i do rely on lunardi. besides being an uber dork, he lives and breathes ncaat seedings more than anyone else. he also has a very good track record (although not as good as he likes to think). you are incorrect in thinking that he does any projecting. he expressly DOESN'T project and seeds teams as if there were no more regular season games. with that being said, you are wrong to think that providence is out right now. they are in and lunardi's bracket on friday will reflect that (particularly with maryland losing tonight).

    michigan is very similar to providence and it's possible that both providence and michigan get added on friday. number of losses is irrelevant so i'm not sure why you cited it. if you are going to count a minnesota win as a plus, then you have to count 2 cincinnati wins as pluses as well. michigan's rpi and computer rankings are NOT significantly better than providence's -- (56 vs 71 rpi and 67 to 71 pomeroy). which "bad" losses of providence are you referring to? the one to 83 rpi northeastern? michigan's loss to 88 rpi iowa actually is worse. moreover, michigan is a pathetic 4-8 in their last 12 versus providence, which is 7-5 in their last 12. that difference is significant. i think that michigan and providence are very close and very well might be the last 2 in at this point with the losses of 3 of the 4 lunardi's last teams in.

    if providence beats rutgers, then it hardly has to beat villanova AND go to the big east semis. providence is going to come in the top 8 and get a first round bye. if providence wins its first BET game against a ND or Gtown, they are in and end of story even without beating villanova. if they lose that first game, it will get dicey and will depend a lot on what the other bubble teams do and if there are bad teams winning conference tournaments that take at large bids away. if they beat rutgers and villanova, they are in and the BET will just be for seeding. i don't think they will be villanova but you never know.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I only brought up Michigan's total losses compared to Providence because you did--

    michigan and ND have some nice wins but a lot more losses.
    I find it amusing that you think there is not much difference in an RPI of 56 and 71. 15 spots in the RPI is a very big deal. A major conference team with an RPI of 56 is fairly likely to make the dance. One with an RPI of 71 would historically be on the outside looking in. Caveat-- I am aware that RPI is only a small part of the calculation of a team's qualifications, but it does matter that teams with RPIs in the 70s very rarely make the dance.

    I also think it is worth noting that you cited RPI and KenPom but did not cite the other metric that many folks pay attention to, which is the Sagarin rankings. In those rankings, Michigan is #48 while Providence is #65... a difference of almost 20 spots.

    Bottom line-- you stated that as of yesterday you felt Michigan was out but Providence was in. I disagree and cite major gaps between the two teams in RPI and Sagarin. On all other counts they appear to be pretty much even, though I think Michigan's quality wins are more impressive because they came non-conference (always harder than against a conference rival that you know better and play every year, often twice or three times).

    The pity is that there is no way for us to find out who is right and who is wrong. Much basketball will be played between now and selection Sunday. Teams on the bubble will win and lose and that will move other teams onto and off of the bubble. Did Maryland move off the bubble tonight? Did Va Tech get back in? Did Notre Dame keep its hopes alive by not falling to a lousy Rutgers team? All these things affect teams like Providence and Michigan and others.

    We'll see how it turns out... it is fun to watch, that is for sure.

    -Jason "I do stick by my prediction that Prov needs to either beat Villanova or win 2 games in the BEast tourney" Evans

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    fwiw, jerry palm slapped up his bracket yesterday. unlike lunardi, his bracket attempts to predict what will happen in future games:

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...story/11233762

    he has providence has the 1st team not in and michigan not in and not in the top 4 of the last 4 out. his rankings look a little off because he can fall back on how he thinks x team will win or lose games in the future.

    also, michigan plays purdue tonight. if they win, i think they slide in because that will be another quality win to add to the resume.

Similar Threads

  1. Down Goes Pitt/Who is #1 Now
    By JDev in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 43
    Last Post: 01-19-2009, 03:43 PM
  2. Marquette vs. Providence
    By DukieBoy in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 01-18-2009, 02:02 PM
  3. Coach K to Providence...
    By 199716March in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 03-26-2008, 01:11 PM
  4. McClure vs Pitt
    By socaldukie in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 12-20-2007, 04:42 PM
  5. VCU/Pitt
    By Methodistman in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 03-17-2007, 08:40 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •