Guess our NCAA Seeding

[Udaman]

Back right before the Wake game, I posted that I thought we would finish 6-6 down the stretch, and could easily end up a 4 or 5 seed in the tourney. Boy the venom that came out.

It wasn't said because I thought we were bad...just because our schedule looked tough, and we had sort of beaten up on what was starting to look like not very good teams (see Purdue and Georgetown).

The problem with this team isn't depth (though I would love to see Plumlee and Pocius play more) - we go 7 1/2 deep, which is fine. It's that we can't stop dribble penetration, we take way too many threes, and we can't shoot very well, which tends to mean we have long stretches where we barely score. With 2:36 minutes to go in the first half, we had 37 points. With 12:41 to go in the game, we had 49. Scoring 12 points over a ten minute stretch is not going to cut it. Also, there are always moments in a game, where you look back and say, "If just this on thing hadn't happened, we would have won." Last night, there were 4 that happened in 1 minute and 20 seconds at the end of the first half. First Roche made a ridiculous 3 pointer. Then Rice made one as well. Then Smith missed a wide open 3 (badly), we got the rebound, it went right back to Smith and he missed another wide open 3 (even worse). If ANY of those four things don't happen, we win the game.

Alas, we did not. Now we have at St Johns, then home to Wake, at Maryland, at Va Tech, home to FSU, at UNC. It's all about seeding now. Thankfully, Wake keeps losing as well, so we could...maybe...still end up in Greensboro. But to do that, we pretty much have to go 5-1 down the stretch and win a game in the ACC tourney. Could happen. Probably won't.

Personally, I would be thrilled if we finished 4-2. And won at least one game in the ACC tourney. That puts us as a solid 3 seed. What we don't want is going 3-3 or worse, because then we lose the first round bye in the ACC tourney (bad), and we are looking at a 4 or 5 seed, having to face a likely tough 2nd round opponent, and then going up against UConn, Oklahoma or Pitt in the Sweet 16. Then again, I would take a Sweet 16 appearance...but finishing 5-7 down the stretch, plus an early loss in the ACC tourney would mean we have no confidence going into the tourney, and a sweet 16 appearance would be pretty tough to consider.

Oh well. At least we have St John's comin up. I didn't like it on our schedule earlier, but right now we need to smoke somebody in an easy win...and they will definitely provide that.

[Buckeye Devil]

I think a 4 seed is likely and reasonable given the overall resume' of Duke. That is assuming that there is no further deterioration and at least a 3-3 finish and 1 ACCT win. Anything worse means a 5/6 seed in my estimation. If Duke goes 4-2 and gets a couple of wins in the ACCT, then maybe a 3 seed. I was hoping for a 2 seed earlier but then reality hits and along with the realization that this not a marquee Duke team.

[dukestheheat]

3.

dth.

[HDB]

4 seed is looking most likely (which could include a dangerous first round opponent)

[Kfanarmy]

4to 5 seed unless they put some wins together...if they finish like they've played February they'll finish the season 4 and 8, unlikely but possible.

[brianl]

I'd rather see them go in as a 3 seed and stay close than be a 2 out West. They seem to struggle when playing west in March.

[ncexnyc]

Seed shmead. The seeding really doesn't mean squat. We've had high seeds the past few years and you've all seen what the outcome has been.

Either the team is or isn't playing well come the start of the tournament. You've got to win 6 games to take it all and somewhere along the line you have to play and beat some quality teams if you expect to advance.

[geraldsneighbor]

I think it is crucial for us to be playing our best ball in March. If it means we get a 4 seed, so be it. I think though having played as tough a schedule as anyone the committee will respect that. Lunardi has us as a 3 seed playing in Philly. Trips to Philly in the past have been great for us (and convenient for me). This team still has work to do starting with Thursday and specifically Sunday, but saying they will be a 5 seed is a little nuts in my opinion.

Our Current "Resume"
Key Wins:
at #9 Purdue, at Florida State, vs. #7 Xavier, vs. #13 Georgetown

Key Losses:
at #10 Clemson, vs. #3 UNC, at #6 Wake

RPI: 5
SOS: 8th (I believe)

Not that bad of a resume. We have as many question marks currently as Wake does. So, let's all take a deep breath.

[gumbomoop]

Rather than focus just on Duke's possible seed, I tend to think of our seed in the following larger context: generally, outside the top 4, which appear to be near-certain top seeds, I can imagine 10-12 teams vying for #2 & 3 seeds as the season winds down. Mich St, playing in a somewhat-down conference, "ought" to do well and secure a #2 seed, but they still have to visit Illinois and have home/away with Purdue. Marquette? Geez, they're fun to watch, but they visit Gtown, Louisville, and Pitt, and entertain UConn and Syracuse; so, can they survive and get a 3 seed? Louisville? Well, an easier end-schedule, so a likely 2-3 seed, but they're wildly inconsistent. Missouri? Don't know where they came from, but if they could beat either Kansas on road or Okla at home, they could sneak into a 2 seed. Amazing, and I'd be pleased if Duke were a 3 to Mo's 2 in some region. (Famous last words? So be it.)

ACC appears chaotic, with UNC a certain reg season winner, while #2-6 is up in air (2-8????) A 3-4-way tie for second at 10-6 is quite plausible. Clemson, despite their stumble at UVa, "should" grab second spot in conference (and probably an NCAA 2 seed) if they can win away at either FSU or Wake. But that's a big if, and, speaking of ifs, if the winner of Duke-Wake gets hot in its other remaining conf games, then that team could nip into the 2 spot, both conf and NCAA. As I and others have noted in other threads, however, Duke's "unbalanced" end-schedule is tough, tough. Boy, so is FSU's, so no way they'll end at 10-6. VaTech ends with 4 tough games, but they could get to 10-6 with a home win over Duke (arrggghhhh!) or UNC. And BC, by golly, could go 10-6 or even 11-5 (!!) if they play the way they played us and UNC. Amazing.

As to our ultimate prospects, we're anywhere from an NCAA #2-6, depending. I guess it's wildly optimistic to even hope we could still be a 2, so I'd definitely settle for a 3. At the depressing end, I'd prefer a 6 to a 5 seed, for the difference between a 1st-rd 11 or 12 is meaningless, between a 2d-rd 4 and 3 ditto; but there's a big diff between a Sweet 16 match-up against any of the possible 2's and any of the obvious 1's.

[Ben63]

I think it is crucial for us to be playing our best ball in March. If it means we get a 4 seed, so be it. I think though having played as tough a schedule as anyone the committee will respect that. Lunardi has us as a 3 seed playing in Philly. Trips to Philly in the past have been great for us (and convenient for me). This team still has work to do starting with Thursday and specifically Sunday, but saying they will be a 5 seed is a little nuts in my opinion.

Our Current "Resume"
Key Wins:
at #9 Purdue, at Florida State, vs. #7 Xavier, vs. #13 Georgetown

Key Losses:
at #10 Clemson, vs. #3 UNC, at #6 Wake

RPI: 5
SOS: 8th (I believe)

Not that bad of a resume. We have as many question marks currently as Wake does. So, let's all take a deep breath.

I think if the tournament started tomorrow we would be a #3 seed but our "stock" is falling fast. The main problem I see is not winning games against the 3 best teams in the ACC (UNC, Wake, Clemson.) We need to beat at least one of these teams and unfortunately, we don't play Clemson again. This means winning home to Wake or away to UNC, and both games will be difficult and there is a good possibility we lose both. Yes the wins against Xavier and Georgetown are nice, but Xavier is still in the A10 and GTown hasn't exactly been lighting up the Big East.

I honestly don't like where this season is going, but we definitely overachieved in December/January raising expectations way above a realistic level for this year's team. I think a Sweet 16 berth would be an excellent accomplishment and anything after that has to be seen as a bonus.

[shotrocksplitter]

beat wake and UNC and ans go 2-3 games deep in the ACC tourney and we're a 2 seed. None of the 3 and it's 4 or 5.

[The1Bluedevil]

The latest bracket on ESPN would be a nightmare draw for Duke.

[geraldsneighbor]

I'm not quite sure why everyone thinks we could be a 6 seed. You remember what we had to do to be a 6 seed? We had 10 losses. We were swept by MD, UNC, and really lacked any sort of signature win. I think our best non-conference win was against a down-Gonzaga team. Keep it all in perspective. Wake hasn't exactly been lighting it up, and we have them at HOME. Win that game, you can start getting the confidence back. Hell, maybe in the ACC tournament UNC gets upset by a Miami and we win the whole thing. Then were a 2 seed. It all ain't that bad, unless you want to look at it like its bad.

[eddiehaskell]

IMO, beat SJU, VT, Maryland, FSU and atleast 1 or 2 games in the ACC tournament and I think we could possibly sneak in as a 3 seed at 25-8. Obviously, throwing in a win over WFU or UNC would likely secure a 3 seed (and give a little hope of getting 2 seed).

On the other hand, loses to WFU, UNC, a split in the other 4 games and a 1st or 2nd round loss in the ACC tourney could leave us with a 6 seed.

[TwoDukeTattoos]

We could still land a 3-seed even if we suffer 2-3 more losses.

[whereinthehellami]

Also, there are always moments in a game, where you look back and say, "If just this on thing hadn't happened, we would have won." Last night, there were 4 that happened in 1 minute and 20 seconds at the end of the first half. First Roche made a ridiculous 3 pointer. Then Rice made one as well. Then Smith missed a wide open 3 (badly), we got the rebound, it went right back to Smith and he missed another wide open 3 (even worse). If ANY of those four things don't happen, we win the game.

We win the game? I don't know about that. I don't think we had the toughness to deny BC the win on that day. They wanted that game and it looked like to me they were going to win it.

I'll go with a 3 seed and a 2nd round exit.

[DU Band Prez 88]

The latest bracket on ESPN would be a nightmare draw for Duke.

Lunardi has us right now as #3 in Philly. I agree with the #3 as the most likely seeding. Let's just take the draw the way it is today. Win the first game, play the winner of Syracuse/BYU. Yes, it would potentially be a very tough 2nd game with either of these teams, or any winner of a 6/11 game for that matter, but I am just sticking with Duke to advance past the 2nd round this year.

Say it's Memphis in the round of 16. The potential "nightmare" then is another talented, quick guard plus an athletic team. I still like our guys against Memphis. Who has Memphis played this year out of their conference, besides Tennessee? I'd LOVE to see Duke up against UConn as the underdog in a regional final game, surrounded by hostile fans in Boston, with the potential to knock them off. Not saying it would happen, but I think would be a great game nonetheless.

All this is pure speculation, and anything can happen...

[Wander]

Say it's Memphis in the round of 16. The potential "nightmare" then is another talented, quick guard plus an athletic team. I still like our guys against Memphis. Who has Memphis played this year out of their conference, besides Tennessee?

If you want to win your bracket pools this year the best advice I can give you is pencil in Memphis to the Elite 8 or Final Four when everyone else has them upset in the 2nd round.

[quickgtp]

Wow, blows my mind that I tried posting a similar topic the other night and the mods kept moving it into the Duke/BC thread. Thank you for allowing this one to stay put.

IMO, we will finish 9-7 in the ACC with a second round exit in the ACC tourney. We then will be looking at a 4 out West or a 5 closer to home.

I hope I am way off....

[geraldsneighbor]

Wow, blows my mind that I tried posting a similar topic the other night and the mods kept moving it into the Duke/BC thread. Thank you for allowing this one to stay put.

IMO, we will finish 9-7 in the ACC with a second round exit in the ACC tourney. We then will be looking at a 4 out West or a 5 closer to home.

I hope I am way off....

You have us going 2-3 in the last 5 ACC games? Easy big guy.

Also, Memphis hasn't really had any quality wins outside of beating a slumping Gonzaga team in Spokane. I'd play zone against them and force them to hit 3's. That wouldn't be the worst match-up in the world.

I think we all know UConn is good, but Pitt proved getting Thabeet in foul trouble is the key. Plus, no Dyson hurts them. Obviously we don't have a Dajaun Blair to get us 23 boards, but maybe we can force some turnovers. We aren't as bad as everyone on here suddenly thinks.