Originally Posted by
jyuwono
At the beginning of the season, I thought Duke was an Elite Eight team. As we piled up wins in dominating fashion -- with incredibly efficient offense and defense -- I thought we were a Final Four team. Now, I can see how we could lose a Sweet Sixteen match-up. It's not just because we lost to UNC or Clemson...but it's the realization that we rely so much on the jumpshot
Relative to other top teams, we do not have a consistent, high percentage way of generating offense. Some ways of getting a consistent offense: fast breaks, forcing turnovers (e.g. via press), dominant post player, or a player who can penetrate at will. We don't really have any of those. Our pressure D is great against teams with poor guards, but in the NCAA tournament we'll see teams with good guards. We don't have a dominant post player. Henderson and Smith have the ability to penetrate, but they hardly do. Bottom line, when our jumpshot is not falling, we struggle. I understand that if you can maintain a top tier defense, you can minimize the ups and downs of the jumpshot; but in the lose-and-you're-done nature of the NCAA tournament, where we will be playing against other good teams, our defense may not carry us far enough when we shoot horribly.
If you think about why UNC is a consensus preseason #1 and still considered by most with the best chance to win the whole thing, they have a lot of those factors: they use the fast break often; they have a dominant post player in Hansbrough (Thompson and Davis are also quite good); and they have a guard that can penetrate at will in Lawson. On top of those things they have several capable shooters. It's no wonder their offense is one of the best in the nation...their defense just has to be adequate for them to win games, and it's not hard to make that extra effort to step up your defense in big games.
If our jumpshots are falling, we can beat any team in the nation. And while I expect us to get at least to the Sweet Sixteen, every game after is going to be a jumpshot coin toss.