The bubble is really becoming interesting. You tell me the difference between teams like Syracuse, West Virginia, Illinois, San Diego State, Purdue, Stanford, USC, Alabama, Florida State, Clemson and Texas Tech, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They are all about even. Yet 5-6 of them are getting in, and the rest are not. Wouldn’t want to be on the committee, that’s for sure.

With 65 spots to fill, there look to be 16 conferences that will only get one bid. They are:

America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Metro Athletic, Mid American, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Southwestern, Sunbelt.

That leaves 49 open spaces. Here are the current locks:

ACC (6): (UNC, Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia)
Atlantic 10 (1): Conference Champion – Xavier?
Big East (6): (Pittsburgh, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame)
Big Ten (4): (Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State)
Big 12 (3): (Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas)
Colonial Athletic (1): Conf Champion (VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel, Hofstra
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon League (1): Butler??
Missouri Valley (1): Southern Illinois
Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, Oregon
SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southern (1): Davidson or Appalachian State
West Coast (1): Conference Champion – Gonzaga?
WAC (1): Nevada

That is 38 more spots, that leaves 11 spaces left. By my count on the bubble you have:

ACC (3) – Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
Big East (2) –West Virginia, Syracuse
Big Ten (3) - Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Big 12 (3) : Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Colonial Athletic (1): Either VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel, Hofstra
Miss Valley (2): Missouri State, Creighton
Mountain West (1) San Diego State
Pac 10 (2): Stanford, USC
SEC (2) : Alabama, Georgia,
Southern (1): Davidson or Appalachian State

That is 20 spaces. So 9 of them won’t get in. It is tight. One the outside looking in right now I think is Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Michigan, Kansas State, Missouri State, San Diego State, Oklahoma State and Georgia. But all of this is subject to change, of course. Also, if teams like Butler, Nevada, Memphis and Xavier lose in their tourneys, the bubble gets smaller.

Final note about Winthrop. The tightness listed above really hurts them. They play their tournament on their home court. If they lose, it will be to a team with a sub 150 RPI, and before that they will only play teams worse than that (which will also hurt their RPI). Bottom line – they must win their tournament, IMHO.


P.S. Awesome new Board