MBB: Duke vs. Maryland Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[gw67]

I realize that many posters are probably looking past Saturday’s game with Maryland to the upcoming game with Wake next week. However, since I have seen the Terps play several times this year I decided to provide some thoughts on the Terps and Saturday’s matchup:

• This is not your typical Maryland team. Due to major weaknesses with their inside game, they start and generally play four perimeter players and an undersized center. For many years, Williams has used the flex offense and has played an inside-out game. Not so this year. They still use the flex in their half court offense but they lack the back-to-the-basket players needed to make it work. As a result, the half court offense often evolves into a mid-major jump shooting offense plus drives to the hoop by Bowie and Vasquez.
• Playing a mid-major jump shooting game would not be terrible if they had some shooters. Bowie is one of the most improved players in the ACC and is terrific driving to the hoop, however, he is shooting 28% from three and went over a month in the season without making a 3-point shot. Mosley is a good defensive player and rebounder from the guard position but his shooting range is about three feet. On top of this, Vasquez is in a shooting slump like Scheyer and Smith. In the last five games, he is 5 for 30 from three-point land.
• The Terps rely on their defense to turn the ball over and to get points off these turnovers. In two of the games they lost, they got large leads in the first half because of points off turnovers but eventually lost the lead when the other team adjusted to their press and began feeding the ball to the post for easy baskets and then making open threes when the Terps reacted and tried to provide help inside.
• Even with the above issues, they could easily be 15-3 at this stage of the season because they play as a team, share the ball and put forth a big effort on the defensive side of the ball and on the boards.
• A couple of strengths are ballhandling and foul shooting. They start three point guards and share the position during the game. They shoot 79% from the foul line although the shooting of some of the reserves is abysmal.
• Even though he is in a shooting slump, Vasquez has backed up his 2nd team All ACC selection last year with another good year. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals, and his A/TO is an excellent 1.8.
• Many of us worry about the wear and tear on Singler (6-8, 235) playing inside. Well, Milbourne at 6-7, 205 plays the same position and has battled against bigger players all year.

I see where Pomeroy picks the Devils by 18. That seems reasonable to me. I expect the Terps to play hard but their lack of size and the disparity in talent will be too great to keep it close, IMO. Perhaps some of the posters will get to see Williams, Pocius, Plumlee and even Czyz play a few more minutes than normal.

gw67

[roywhite]

Thanks for the preview, gw...

I fully expect the Terps to play hard and well against the Blue Devils; they nearly always do.

[jv001]

You did not mention Eric Hayes in your post. How is he playing this year. If I'm correct he avgd 10 pts per game last year. With Vasquez, Bowie and Hayes MD has 3 good guards. With the lack of inside players I can see why Gary is playing this kind of lineup. Once again thanks for the post. I have not seem them play this year. Go Duke!

[gw67]

jv001 – Per your question, Hayes starts and plays major minutes. He is averaging 10 ppg and has played well in their two conference wins. Last year he was hampered with an ankle injury for the last half of the season. His defensive play has improved and he, Vasquez and Mosley took turns shutting down Landesberg in the Virginia game. The other starter that I didn’t mention is Neal. He is about 6-6 and can’t jump (not a great combination for your center). Nevertheless he can hit an occasional three and is a good passer.

There are a couple of differences in their play that I didn’t mention. First, they don’t have a shot blocker. Generally, the Terps lead the conference in shots blocked per game. That is not the case this year. I expect Henderson, Scheyer and Singler to drive to the hoop often. In the past, the Terps strictly played man-to-man defense. They have played some zone since the conference games began.

gw67

[pfrduke]

• Playing a mid-major jump shooting game would not be terrible if they had some shooters. Bowie is one of the most improved players in the ACC and is terrific driving to the hoop, however, he is shooting 28% from three and went over a month in the season without making a 3-point shot. Mosley is a good defensive player and rebounder from the guard position but his shooting range is about three feet. On top of this, Vasquez is in a shooting slump like Scheyer and Smith. In the last five games, he is 5 for 30 from three-point land.

Following up on this point, Maryland is the worst shooting team in the ACC. They hit just 46.2% of their 2s and 31.8% of their 3s, good for 228th and 245th nationally, respectively.

Vasquez's shooting slump has actually gotten his 3pt% back to normal. He's never been a strong shooter (although he is a rather prolific one) - in 2007 from 3 he was 31-98 (.316), in 2008 he was 64-207 (.309), and thus far this year he's 31-101 (.307).

Also, Maryland being a jump-shooting team has also kept them off the free throw line. They're 306th in the country in FT Rate (measures frequency in getting to the line; free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts). This doubly hurts the Terps because they generally have excellent free throw shooters - their .789 at the line is 6th in the country and best in the ACC.

[Wander]

Vasquez will get an eight-topple double and Maryland will still lose by 20.

[JDev]

Maryland, Vasquez in particular, loves to play at Cameron, and Cameron's notoriously soft rims might help UM's shooting percentage. That being said, if Duke is playing defense at the same high level, the rims don't matter a bit. Duke is just a lot better and they might be playing for the number one ranking (whatever that is worth at this point in the season, but still a nice caveat).

[Virginian]

Let's not kid ourselves. Duke SHOULD win this by 20. But every time Md. plays us they play us strong. It is THE GAME for Md. Their game against Duke is the ONLY game they care about. They could lose 25 games in a season and never go to the NCAAs again, but will count it a successful season if they beat Duke once. Their standard, every-game chant is "(f-word) Duke." They use it every game and the entire game and are unbelievably proud of that fact.

They will come to play. Gary will have them primed with a white-hot hatred of Duke and all things Duke. If they beat us they will burn down half of College Park and turn over cars and assault police. If they lose they will burn down half of College Park and turn over cars and assault police.

They are the most ridiculous program with the stupidest fans and in all of Div. I basketball. But they will give us a game for sure, and they may very well win. You think NC State gave us a scare? You ain't seen nothing yet.

Mark my words.

[bjornolf]

I think they're tied for the most wins by a visiting team in Cameron over the last decade. They were saying on the radio here in DC this morning that they've won four, as has UNC. Since 2000, they have the same overall regular season record, 6-8, against us as UNC does, also the best of any team that plays Duke regularly. So never overlook the Terps when they're playing us.

[geraldsneighbor]

I think we should just follow Morgan St.'s game plan vs. MD.

[merry]

I realize that many posters are probably looking past Saturday’s game with Maryland to the upcoming game with Wake next week...

Uh, you're kidding, right? These "many posters" you refer to must be fans of very short memory! I think Maryland must hold the record, at least in this decade, for the ACC team that most often beats Duke when not favored to do so. Sure we "should" beat them but when has that ever meant anything?

As for Gary, I say we make him sweat!

[geraldsneighbor]

Uh, you're kidding, right? These "many posters" you refer to must be fans of very short memory! I think Maryland must hold the record, at least in this decade, for the ACC team that most often beats Duke when not favored to do so. Sure we "should" beat them but when has that ever meant anything?

As for Gary, I say we make him sweat!

Who sweats more..Gary or Seth Greenberg? I haven't seen anyone sweat that bad since Patrick Ewing retired.

[WeepingThomasHill]

I also live in DC and am have been able to see the Terps play a few times. This is not a good team. Unlike the past few seasons, Sweaty does not have several bigs that he can rotate in - his bigs have given us fits since the early part of this decade, from Lonny Baxter through Bambale "I have 10 Cars" Osby.

They don't match up well with us this year - Henderson and Singler, particularly. While in past years General Grevius has torched us with his helter-skelter knifing drives to the rim, Smith is just as quick and rangy and should slow him down. Dave Neal should be playing for Towson or UMBC, not logging major minutes in the ACC. Bowie and Milbourne are simply complementary players.

I like Duke to win by 15 or so - it should be more, but as others have noted, including Bornolf, Sweaty always gets his team up to play us - this is their National Championship. Unfortunately for Gary, it is in January.

[geraldsneighbor]

Here we go with the "Georgetown wasn't that good" talk.

[MB in MD]

Let's not kid ourselves. Duke SHOULD win this by 20. But every time Md. plays us they play us strong. It is THE GAME for Md. Their game against Duke is the ONLY game they care about. They could lose 25 games in a season and never go to the NCAAs again, but will count it a successful season if they beat Duke once. Their standard, every-game chant is "(f-word) Duke." They use it every game and the entire game and are unbelievably proud of that fact.

They will come to play. Gary will have them primed with a white-hot hatred of Duke and all things Duke. If they beat us they will burn down half of College Park and turn over cars and assault police. If they lose they will burn down half of College Park and turn over cars and assault police.

They are the most ridiculous program with the stupidest fans and in all of Div. I basketball. But they will give us a game for sure, and they may very well win. You think NC State gave us a scare? You ain't seen nothing yet.

Mark my words.

Living up here in Terpland and having to deal with Maryland fans day in and day out I would have to say I agree with almost everything in this post. Except that if MD loses they won't burn down College Park this time. Maryland fans are as somber as I have ever seen them, and have much less energy than in most years in anticipation of the Duke matchup. Maybe that will change when Duke comes up here to play them, but right now none of the fans I've talked to is even thinking about an upset in Cameron.

Having said that, the fans aren't the players, and they are still an emotional lot, especially Vasquez, who everyone here says is both Maryland's best player and worst player. If we don't play with emotion, we can be had.

[dukestheheat]

gw-

That is an excellent synopsis and thank you for your work on this. I do indeed detest the fanbase at Maryland so I hope we win by 30 points.

dukestheheat

[merry]

Dave Neal should be playing for Towson or UMBC, not logging major minutes in the ACC. Bowie and Milbourne are simply complementary players.

Pretty sure you just guaranteed that at least one of these guys will have a career game on Saturday.

[WeepingThomasHill]

If we can't defend Dave Neal on Saturday, we have bigger problems...

On the other hand, we should be very afraid of Jin Kim, who is poised for a breakout game.

[gw67]

Some additional thoughts on Terps:

• DBR did not link this morning’s Post article on game- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...53.html?sub=AR
• IMO, Vasquez is not providing locker room material (as if Coach K needs it) when he says CIS is his house. He loves playing in front of a great crowd whether at home or on the road.
• Regarding the comment that Neal should be playing at Towson. He was told when he accepted the scholarship that he probably wouldn’t play much during his career. To his credit, he has lost some weight, gotten in better shape and has fulfilled a need this year. He gives them good effort every game and doesn’t make many mental or physical mistakes.
• Hayes, Milbourne and Bowie are complimentary players much like Smith, Paulus, McClure and Thomas. All three are ACC quality players.
• Jin-Soo Kim gets fewer minutes than Williams of Duke but, like Williams, I see a bright future for Kim. Offensively, he has the makings of the whole package. Defensively, he needs to get stronger and get more experience playing against better competition than he faced in high school.
• With regard to Maryland fans, it is often a mistake to paint with too wide a brush. I agree that many are idiots. I don’t visit their site as often as I once did because several of their posters are ignorant and mean spirited toward their own players. However, living in the area, I work with, live by, socialize with and play golf with Maryland alums who are good folks. I even married one although she stopped following basketball when Lefty was pushed out.
• Lastly, Williams has done a good job coaching this year’s team. I doubt that any coach in the ACC could have gotten more out of them. Before the season started, I expected about 15 wins if a couple of the big men didn’t step up (they haven’t). It appears that 18-19 wins may be possible. My Maryland buddies don’t think that he is in trouble unless the team unravels.

gw67

[Virginian]

There is constant talk around D.C. that Gary Williams is on his way out. It has even surfaced in the local papers.

The knock on him is NOT that he can't coach. The complaint (correct or not) is that he cannot or will not recruit. The naysayers point out that it doesn't matter whether he can coach or not (he can) if he can't get the players needed to beat UNC, Duke, Clemson, etc. His one great team that went to two final fours and won a national championship is seen as a fluke recruiting success.

All this may be unfair, but if Maryland keeps missing the NCAAs and continues to be a second-tier team in the ACC (even with its once-a-season win over UNC or Duke), Gary's not going to survive much longer. At least that's the conventional wisdom.

Personally, if Md. is going to continue to be a mediocre team I'm happy to see Williams hang in there.