Zoubek, Plumlee, Thomas, McClure

[MB in MD]

Good post. I try to resist drawing too many inferences based on the last game. When I was in government and business, this was referred to as a "recency" problem (i.e., the "last" situation = the "next" situation).

Zoubek's plus/minus has been just great all season, and I wouldn't be so quick to write him off.

I agree with this. He clearly had matchup problems with GT, and he probably will in other games. But overall his trajectory is upward and he does a number of things that he doesn't get much credit for. Rebounding, for example. Even though he doesn't have the strong hands to come down with balls, he works hard to keep a lot of balls alive that end up in the hands of our guards. And I think our overall offense is a lot better when we run some of it through him, and give him the opportunity to pass out of the post.

[gumbomoop]

This thread, from its beginning, implicitly--and correctly, IMO--reminds us that K's "center-by-committee" has 4, not 3, members. Some posters hope MP1 gets more minutes, and he did well against G'town. All of us had, and still have, hopes that Z and LT will develop some consistency, real soon. By now almost all posters have good things to say about DMc, and I listed his sterling qualities just a few posts back in this thread.

But what to say about LT and Z that is analytical and constructively critical?

Well, several posters say, for lots of us, "We don't know what's going on with LT." SupaDave says, plausibly but not totally convincingly, that LT's "primary job is to create havoc." True, though it does seem at times that he creates havoc for himself, so that when, earlier in the year, he smoothly "slipped" a pick, took a nice pass, and scored a layup, that wasn't havoc but basic bball. His fierce running too often puts him out of any sensible rebounding position. His equally fierce defensive stance is at times effective, at other times just draws a meaningless foul out on the perimeter. I need to be persuaded that his havoc-style is good. [Well, no, what I need is irrelevant.] At one point in first half against G'town, either he received a nice pass or got an easy rebound for an easy lay-in, but instead of keeping the ball high and just dumping it into the basket from inches away, he brought it down to his waist (to get jumping momentum??), then was stripped by late-arriving defender, thus losing an easy 2 points. One simply gets the feeling that LT is so energetic as to be too-often erratic, that his energy inhibits, big time, his court awareness. Thus, posters phaedrus and arnie-still-king rightly puzzle at LT's ineffectiveness as rebounder; and I'm just wondering whether SupaDave's point about "havoc" has a big down side.

On Z, it appears he's clearly both much improved (getting healthy, yes) and still very inconsistent. His footwork is better, not yet good enough. He, too, brings ball down too often [I'm quite sure K/staff are constantly working on this, but bad habits are hard to break], and doesn't yet know how (?) to have strong hands. He's so often frustrated, as evidenced by his signature slapping of his hands together. We all feel for him; I mean it.

The 4-member-center-by-committee seems to be where we are just now. I assume K would prefer to know this far into the season whom he can count on at the 5, but beyond the solid 10-25 minutes he can get from DMc, all the others will do an acceptable job at times, not so well other times. It will be interesting to see if K is simply forced to start a new guy every 3 or 4 games from here on out, or whether DMc's solid play all season has won him the start long-term as well as more minutes. Many posters have wanted MP1 to get minutes and confidence; now we worry, I suspect, that Z's and LT's confidence might take a hit.

Even more, looming in the background, is the fear that, if neither the committee system works nor one guy emerges, that, egads, it's back to KS at the 5 for serious stretches. So let's predict that the 4-man-5, led by DMc (for now) will work tolerably well, thus supporting just enough the smoother workings of all the other cogs. If so, real Final 4 chance.

Btw, although both LT and DMc might very briefly relieve Singler at the 4, it seems to me that, mostly, G slips over to the 4 for the 3-4 minutes that KS sits.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

Lance to me seems like he does below average job of anticipating how the ball is going to come off the rim - he also doesn't do a good job boxing out and those notes don't make for a good rebound guy when combined.

I'm going to have to disagree with the Zoubek and the hands thing...

I agree McClure has been key. He is always focused and knows his roll and gets the job done. He's intense and never looks lost (ala lance and B) - even if he makes a bad decision or two.

Hopefully Plumee will continue to grow. He seems to be the only one of the four with the tools to become an all ACC kind of guy for us out of those four - unless Lance finds a new gear.

[RelativeWays]

If Zoubek and Lance are "weapons," then what do you call Scheyer, Singler, and Henderson?

Actually, I can kind of see Zoubek as that big menacing bazooka from Looney Tunes that when you press the trigger, it lets out a squeak and a piece of paper with the word "Bang" on it comes out of the barrel.

Ouch. Zoubs needs to be assertive and go up with authority. I've always thought that he goes up timid sometimes and gets blocked. I really felt he was making good progress but has been a non factor since the Davidson game. In all honesty I think part of it is the offense has zero confidence in him to score. The ball seldom comes to him in the post, if it does, its a quick pass out. Make Zoubek try to establish himself as an offense.

Out of all 4, Plumlee has the most upside...he's a freshman, and fairly mobile. I like that K let him play minutes against a physical Georgetown, I'd like to see him get more burn, I think he will improve the most.

[DukeDevilDeb]

... if you toss out 3 games in particular for LT in which he shot a combined 1-16, his FT% is actually respectable. The problem with LT is that you never know which one is going to show up, the one that finds an offensive niche and some flow, or the one that misses all 6 FTs.

I have watched Lance carefully this season and have noticed two distinct trajectories to his free throw shooting. In the games in which he has done well, his free throws follow an incredibly high arc and then descend into the basket. In the three game to which you refer above, Lance flattened out his free throws--and did miserably! I'm hoping that the coaches have noticed this and encouraged him to use the more successful approach, but as you said above, we never know which Lance is going to turn up.

This is a really, really good kid who could use some assistance in directing his passion and energy into basketball moves that would help the team (such as not bringing the ball down as he did against G'town). I know lots of bigs do this routinely and almost always suffer for it... why, oh why?

[speedevil2001]

There was a thread comparing the talents of Smith and Paulus, based on the importance of PG play to the team, an area that could certainly improve. Also, the 5 position on the team could improve as well and results have been subpar of late. My thought is to compare the four guys who have been given any real minutes this year.

Zoubek
A 7'1" guy who cedes jump balls to a 6"4" athlete. That tells you something about his own jumping ability. He has a pretty good handle on the ball and passes well but is little threat inside. He can rebound when the ball comes to him but is slow getting to rebounds that aren't near. One of his best assets is just size, since it appears to intimidate players who try to score inside. He is still foul prone and is probably not going over 20 minutes in any game.

Thomas
At 6'8" and with more strength this year I had expected his play to come along and he did have some games where he showed offensive ability. I think both his defense and rebounding have regressed, maybe because we have faced bigger frontcourts of late. He seems to overplay on defense, frequently picking up unnecessary fouls. I also don't see him rotating to provide help defense or boxing out. His rebounding numbers haven't been there either. He needs to turn things around or his minutes will steadily diminish.

McClure
At 6'6" and with good athletic ability he has been outstanding with his defense virtually all the year. With Thomas not coming through of late, he is the definite choice for coach K. Trur, he is not much of an offensive threat, but he does box out well and gets more rebounds than you would expect from a 6'6" guy.

Plumley
A 6'10' guy with much better mobility and jumping ability than Zoubek. I defer to coach K on what he sees regularly in practice, but given that neither Zoubek or Thomas are having outstanding seasons, there appears to be room to use his abilies for some part of every game. His offensive, back to the basket, game is not there yet, but the other alternatives have very little back to the basket capability either.

While we need better play from the 5 position, the bigger teams we have been playing have exposed our guys weaknesses. I would be interested in how others see things going forward.

zoubek...positives: big, tall, strong, space eater, block shots, rebounding, tapping the ball out, excellent free throw shooter, can make baskets at close range. negatives: weak lower body, lacks exposiveness, cant jump or dunk, brings the ball low when he has possion, slow latteral movement.

lance..positives: finishing around the basket, catching the pass, stronger than last 2 seasons, getting more confident. negatives: a true 4 in the duke system, but kyle plays that spot, not a great shooter, must improve rebounding for position, and help defense.

mcclure..positives: hustle, intangle senior leadership, rebounding for his size, knows his role, knows his abilites. negatives: limited abilities.

plumlee..positives: tall. negatives: inexperience.

[Kedsy]

In the pre-season I was a Zoubek detractor. I didn't think he was fast enough to play in Duke's Phoenix-style offense and didn't think he moved his feet quickly enough to play significant minutes on defense.

Well Duke doesn't play the D'Antoni offense any more, and Zoubek's defensive footwork has been adequate or better. At this point, despite his lack of scoring in the past few games I completely disagree with those who think he isn't Duke's best option in the post and that we have to find someone who can succeed there.

Z is playing solid defense, he's altering shots, and on offense someone has to guard him, which is really all we need from that position. Thomas and McClure generally don't have to be guarded, which leaves their man free to help defend Duke's true offensive threats. But if a defender leaves Zoubek alone, he'll score, which means Singler, Henderson, Scheyer, and Smith have to be guarded one on one, which gives us an advantage.

I'm happy to say I was wrong in the pre-season. Z is the answer.