Through three games in the ACC we have seen Jon, G, and Kyle play quite a few minutes. I know some on this board are concerned about this...
Is Kyle okay since he isn't playing out of position and is bigger now?
Are the minutes actually just right for these three? Thoughts?
Here are the minutes in the 3 ACC games so far:
Kyle: 37, 34, 37
Jon: 34, 38, 34
G: 32, 34, 36
NOTE: PLEASE, do not make this about where every minute should go (Marty needs 2 more... give some to E-will, etc...)
Andre Dawkins -- 2011 Final Four MOP
I believe these are the type of minutes you're going to see from these 3 players the remainder of the season.
I understand we have depth this year, but as I've said before, it's not true depth, as all of our bench players give us defense, but no offensive. The exception being Paulus, who until yesterday, hasn't been much of a factor.
We just play so hard there has to be a way to shave some of these off....but would it truely make a difference? I remember a media person asking Battier (my father) about playing so many minutes and he responded with something along the lines of, "I'm 20 years old, I shouldn't get tired."
A bad idea? Maybe. A good idea? Probably not. But an idea nonetheless
Singler is in a different situation. K doesn't seem to like putting Zoubek and Thomas on the floor together and when you pair McClure with either of them, there is a severe lack of offense available from the post. I have also noticed in the last couple of games that Singler and McClure have been logging significant minutes together which means that Singler is back guarding the opponent's largest player.
Singler is bigger and stronger and I don't think you can discount another year of conditioning but if he keeps logging 35+ minutes per game with significant time spent at the 5, then I would be surprised if he didn't burn out by the end of the year.
In pre-conference play, Zoubek and Thomas were scoring threats, as opposed to contributing only rebounds and defense. In addition, Nolan was better able to run the team in OOC play-- he's still learning. As a result, in conference play, we have looked very similar to recent Duke teams-- relegated to finding open shots on the perimeter rather than carving up defenses or pounding the ball inside, and the "big 3" are the best we have for that style of offense, and the best 3 players we have at our disposal. They're going to have to play a lot of minutes for the foreseeable future.
Given the strides Z, LT and Nolan made in the off-season, and their resulting improvements in the first part of this season, I'm hoping they are just taking time to adjust to the higher-quality ACC competition, combined with the added difficulty of playing teams that know our system. This team needs time.
Ideally, Z and LT will continue to develop over the conference season so that they will start contributing in ACC play at the level they were in OOC play. Until they do, every game will be tight until late, and there won't be as many minutes for the bench guys. Specifically with regard to Singler, he's going to have to shoulder a lot of the post burden until he gets some help. Similarly, Nolan is a work in progress as a floor general, but I know he will "get it" at some point.
We didn't add any freshmen who were paradigm shifters, so it would have been optimistic to expect a totally different team this year from last. The improved early season play of the three players I mentioned gives us cause for optimism that by the end of the season, we'll have a more balanced attack, where our "big 3" won't have to play such heavy minutes. Optimism aside, if Z and LT don't develop the way we need them too, then Singler will wear down, and we can expect the same post-season success as recent years, but at least we have Kelly and Plumlee2 coming in next year. There's no reason to expect a different result if we field the same effective team as previous years.
I have some trouble with the "worn down" premise over the course of a season, considering these are young athletes in terrific shape. A couple days of rest should be enough for them to recover from any stretch of games, and I imagine K reduces practice intensity towards the end of the season so the guys are in top form.
I'm more inclined to buy into the "worn down" premise at the end of a game, but my non-statistical recollection is that FT and 3 point shooting has generally improved in the second half as guys got into rythme, rather than falling off due to fatigue.
Meanwhile, here are some numbers for you:
Jon Scheyer with 30-plus minutes this season: 16.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.6 spg, .451 FG%, .852 FT%, .436 3PT%
Jon Scheyer with less than 30 minutes this season: 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.9 spg, .407 FG%, .786 FT%, .292 3pt%
Doesn't look like big minutes are hurting him at all. In fact, they seem to help. If you go back and look, this is a trend through his career.
Kyle Singler with 30-plus minutes this season: 17.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.9 bpg, .450 FG%, .630 FT%, .340 3pt%
Kyle Singler with less than 30 minutes this season: 16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.9 spg, 0.7 bpg, .521 FG%, .780 FT%, .333 3pt%
Kyle's numbers look better in the low-minute games. Then again, we have to consider that those games came against weak opponents.
Gerald Henderson with 30-plus minutes this season: 19.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 spg, .549 FG%, .778 FT%, .727 3PT%
Gerald Henderson with less than 39 minutes this season: 11.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.2 bpg, .448 FG%, .821 FT%, .333 3PT%
Gerald's sample size is really small, but he's certainly not suffering.
From those numbers, we can conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty that logging heavy has not impacted performance in individual games. Maybe Kyle's shooting has suffered. Maybe. Then again, you'd expect everyone's shooting to suffer because presumably, guys are playing big minutes against better teams, who should be stronger defensively, etc.
Now, maybe your point is that playing those many minutes over the course of a season will lead to tired legs in March. We've argued that to death over the last few years. Someone will point to Singler's struggles down the stretch last year. I'll post Battier's 30-plus-minute stats in response. Someone will claim that J.J. wore down. I'll mention that Shelden played just as many minutes and, over the last two months of his senior season, averaged 20 ppg, 11.8 rpg. 4.0 bpg and shot .556 from the field and .730 from the line.
Then we'll have the same debate about how practices are far more tiring than games, and playing an extra 10 minutes of game time each week should not build up to some sort of critical fatigue level. And then we'll have the same argument three days later. Woohoo!
I think that a big difference between JJ/Kyle and Shane/Shel is that JJ and Kyle are the primary focus of opposing teams D; they face very intense pressure and relentless focus, and on top of that if JJ or Kyle doesn't score, we are doomed, whereas if Shel or Shane didn't score, they had guys who could pick up the slack and they were not the focus as much. Also, maybe the guys who Kyle and JJ are seeing against them are bigger or stronger or more athletic than they are, whereas Shel and Shane rarely saw guys bigger and stronger up against them? Are JJ and Kyle simply not in as good shape as the guys you mentioned? Do they play harder? Do they have to work harder for what they get? Clearly there is something going on there.
Jumbo, let me ask this of you; JJ has spoken of being tired at the end of a few seasons, and Kyle spoke of it last season. Jay mentioned it during the last game, and plenty of other professional analysts have discussed it at length. If this is not an issue, why is are these people, who we assume know a bit about the game, bringing it up?
I know this is a bit of a dead horse, and I know that both "sides" of the "argument" wish we wouldn't have it (for very different reasons, maybe) but unfortunately over the last few years it seems to come up again and again, and not always just on forums, but sometimes from the lips of Duke players and former Duke players turned announcers
One note, as a former athlete; practice in no way, hope, or form holds a candle to real games, either in what is demanded of a person or in what you learn about a person.
I think that during the conference season, as the scouting becomes more accurate, opposing teams think they have ways to stop/guard/frustrate our players. We've seen it work in the first half of the past two games, when we've looked a bit tentative and not scored at will. By the second half, we've looked stronger than the opponents because we are settled into relentless defense and we wear them out. FSU in particular was completely gassed at the end of that game. They start losing their step, flailing around and we are lucky to always be ready to stick the dagger in on any mistakes. No other team can keep up on defending us because playing defense is boring and unexciting.
But then again, sometimes the ball takes a while to warm up and bounce right for us!
... and by the way, perhaps one of the hundreds of new posters around here have some unique perspectives on the matter. I keep posting on the same old topics, yet somehow one of the newbies always finds a way to add something interesting to the debate. You of all people should know this since every poster is a newer one to you
Andre Dawkins -- 2011 Final Four MOP
If you're arguing--as you appear to be--that fatigue was not the cause of JJ's March shooting struggles, what then was? Or, perhaps, you're arguing that some players are impacted by fatigue and some aren't. If that's the case, then I guess we have to wait and see in March if shots stop falling.
I'm going to guess that the ranking for record minutes played during a career goes as follows:
None of those guys ever looked worn down by the end of the year, except for Hurley's freshman year but we all know why that was.
It's not wether someone plays 37 or 32 minutes a game. I'm sorry but I always have to laugh when I see this argument. I mean really does anyone really think about what they're saying when they say it?
I think the more apt reasons are mental fatigue from a season worth of games. Many come into college better ready to handle this, heck some probably play more games before they get to college than they do. But nothing can prepare them for the rigors of college life and it's definately an adjustment. I believe that's where that phrase comes from. Doesn't it go something like the best thing about Freshman is they becomes Sophmores. And we usually see a huge improvement between those years.
The other fatigue probably comes from being the focus of a team. Having to do this or always do that on your own. It doesn't seem to be bothering Stephen Curry but apparently our players or more prone to it according to this board. In either case, the scoring load, the load to play inside, the ball handling load, no matter what you look at is better spread around than it was last year.
These kids play for Duke. I mean they're good. They're in shape. It's not a 3 or 4 minutes here a game. It's all that comes with playing for Duke that wears them down I would bet.
So asking why minutes didn't effect these players like others isn't valid. Not all players are alike nor are all teams alike. Some have more depth with interchangeble parts and some don't.
Also, I might agree with Hill and Hurley, but did Christian start his freshmen year? Where would we find the "minutes played" for Duke players anyway? I'd be curious about that.
freshman in 1988-1989.
He averaged 8.9 ppg,4.7 rpg, shot 72.3% from the floor and 72.7% from the foul line.
His minutes increased as a soph to 1135 in 38 games.
This info is published in the Duke basketball yearbooks.
Best regards and go,Duke!
Ah thanks so much! So can I ask, do you know if there is a place to see all-time minutes played? I am afraid I am at school, so a lot of websites are blocked here
And btw... that is some shooting percentage!
Ncaa consist of two half's. So the minutes are spread around equally. Some more than others. But I feel that as long as our primary players are out there producing assists, points and rebounds, steals and so on. There's no need to fear. Time is of the essence, And our "Soldiers" are out there getting the job done. With the time they are allotted. My one concern is that our "Depth" won't get enough time out on the court in time for the next several Big games we have approaching. the hoyas are going to be a factor to deal with and so will clemson and all the rest. But I have utmost faith in coach K and the team, win or lose. We will make it down the stretch into the March madness. Note: you will never read a doubtful word
written by this abroad "BlueDevil".
Charlie Board for complete ACC stats (1954-2002) - and the first place I usually look and a wonderful treasure - a great place to go and waste time looking up all the players of yore. Here's Hill , Hurley and Laettner. There's also and Duke Basketball Database.
Since 2002, there's the comprehensive database run by GoDuke.com. This latter site looks to be all you need, but since its interface isn't as familiar to me, I rarely use it if the info is on Charlie Board.
There are other sites, of course, like Duke Update and Duke Basketball Database, that have stats and links to other sites with stats in various formats.