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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Texas/NC

    Too Many Minutes... Again?

    Through three games in the ACC we have seen Jon, G, and Kyle play quite a few minutes. I know some on this board are concerned about this...

    Is Kyle okay since he isn't playing out of position and is bigger now?

    Are the minutes actually just right for these three? Thoughts?

    Here are the minutes in the 3 ACC games so far:

    Kyle: 37, 34, 37
    Jon: 34, 38, 34
    G: 32, 34, 36

    NOTE: PLEASE, do not make this about where every minute should go (Marty needs 2 more... give some to E-will, etc...)

  2. #2
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    Fayetteville, NC
    I believe these are the type of minutes you're going to see from these 3 players the remainder of the season.

    I understand we have depth this year, but as I've said before, it's not true depth, as all of our bench players give us defense, but no offensive. The exception being Paulus, who until yesterday, hasn't been much of a factor.

  3. #3
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    Wilmington, NC
    We just play so hard there has to be a way to shave some of these off....but would it truely make a difference? I remember a media person asking Battier (my father) about playing so many minutes and he responded with something along the lines of, "I'm 20 years old, I shouldn't get tired."
    I am the yellow king

  4. #4

    Just like the last couple years

    In pre-conference play, Zoubek and Thomas were scoring threats, as opposed to contributing only rebounds and defense. In addition, Nolan was better able to run the team in OOC play-- he's still learning. As a result, in conference play, we have looked very similar to recent Duke teams-- relegated to finding open shots on the perimeter rather than carving up defenses or pounding the ball inside, and the "big 3" are the best we have for that style of offense, and the best 3 players we have at our disposal. They're going to have to play a lot of minutes for the foreseeable future.

    Given the strides Z, LT and Nolan made in the off-season, and their resulting improvements in the first part of this season, I'm hoping they are just taking time to adjust to the higher-quality ACC competition, combined with the added difficulty of playing teams that know our system. This team needs time.

    Ideally, Z and LT will continue to develop over the conference season so that they will start contributing in ACC play at the level they were in OOC play. Until they do, every game will be tight until late, and there won't be as many minutes for the bench guys. Specifically with regard to Singler, he's going to have to shoulder a lot of the post burden until he gets some help. Similarly, Nolan is a work in progress as a floor general, but I know he will "get it" at some point.

    We didn't add any freshmen who were paradigm shifters, so it would have been optimistic to expect a totally different team this year from last. The improved early season play of the three players I mentioned gives us cause for optimism that by the end of the season, we'll have a more balanced attack, where our "big 3" won't have to play such heavy minutes. Optimism aside, if Z and LT don't develop the way we need them too, then Singler will wear down, and we can expect the same post-season success as recent years, but at least we have Kelly and Plumlee2 coming in next year. There's no reason to expect a different result if we field the same effective team as previous years.

  5. #5
    I have some trouble with the "worn down" premise over the course of a season, considering these are young athletes in terrific shape. A couple days of rest should be enough for them to recover from any stretch of games, and I imagine K reduces practice intensity towards the end of the season so the guys are in top form.

    I'm more inclined to buy into the "worn down" premise at the end of a game, but my non-statistical recollection is that FT and 3 point shooting has generally improved in the second half as guys got into rythme, rather than falling off due to fatigue.

  6. #6
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    Red Lion, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by Cavlaw View Post
    I have some trouble with the "worn down" premise over the course of a season, considering these are young athletes in terrific shape. A couple days of rest should be enough for them to recover from any stretch of games, and I imagine K reduces practice intensity towards the end of the season so the guys are in top form.

    I'm more inclined to buy into the "worn down" premise at the end of a game, but my non-statistical recollection is that FT and 3 point shooting has generally improved in the second half as guys got into rythme, rather than falling off due to fatigue.
    People need to realize that YES these kids can wear down. I know this personally because I played sports in college and, even though I was in superior shape, I would still get tired throughout the season. Now it was not basketball, but it was ice hockey which is just as, if not more tiring then basketball. You can take the athlete in the best shape in the world and he will still get worn down as you lean on him/her more and more.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by quickgtp View Post
    People need to realize that YES these kids can wear down. I know this personally because I played sports in college and, even though I was in superior shape, I would still get tired throughout the season. Now it was not basketball, but it was ice hockey which is just as, if not more tiring then basketball. You can take the athlete in the best shape in the world and he will still get worn down as you lean on him/her more and more.
    Hey, did you play at Duke? When did you play? I was on the Duke ice hockey team in 1981-82.

    I think people are mixing two subjects. Sure, kids can get tired, for a variety of reasons. I don't think anybody's disputing that, nor (I assume) does anyone doubt that several Duke players have worn down in recent years, because the coaches and kids themselves have said so. What some people (including me) are taking issue with is the idea that the wearing down has anything to do with how many minutes the kids play in the games. As someone who played ice hockey then and who plays pickup basketball now, the idea that five extra minutes of game time, twice a week in January, can be responsible for fatigue in March seems ludicrous.

    What I think is we, as fans, don't see the practices; we don't see the kids in the locker room or (for the most part) on the campus. We can't say or measure why some of them have appeared to wear down in recent years so we latch onto one of the few (perhaps only) things we can objectively measure, which is minutes played per game. But just because we can measure it doesn't mean it's the cause of the problem.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by quickgtp View Post
    People need to realize that YES these kids can wear down. I know this personally because I played sports in college and, even though I was in superior shape, I would still get tired throughout the season. Now it was not basketball, but it was ice hockey which is just as, if not more tiring then basketball. You can take the athlete in the best shape in the world and he will still get worn down as you lean on him/her more and more.
    It's great that you were a D1 athlete, but you shouldn't assume you are the only one of these boards who was. Quite a few of us were.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cavlaw View Post
    It's great that you were a D1 athlete, but you shouldn't assume you are the only one of these boards who was. Quite a few of us were.
    What's the point of this post? You're attacking a strawman here. quickgtp did not assume that he's the only D-1 athlete on these boards. He responded to a post by you asserting that young athletes do not wear down over the course of the season. He responded with a personal experience that, in fact, young athletes can wear down over the course of the season. Your post was close to an absolute (young players don't wear down over the course of the season). His wasn't (young plays can wear down). He makes a valid point from personal experience that you failed to address.

    Where is the assumption on his part? With all due respect, your post--which does not address any of quickgtp's substance--looks like it was done simply to point out that you were a D-1 athlete (what substance is there in your response other than that?). So, in the words of a great poster here, "it's great that you were a D1 athlete". Perhaps you can drawn on that experience and provide a substantive response.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by rockymtn devil View Post
    What's the point of this post? You're attacking a strawman here. quickgtp did not assume that he's the only D-1 athlete on these boards. He responded to a post by you asserting that young athletes do not wear down over the course of the season. He responded with a personal experience that, in fact, young athletes can wear down over the course of the season. Your post was close to an absolute (young players don't wear down over the course of the season). His wasn't (young plays can wear down). He makes a valid point from personal experience that you failed to address.

    Where is the assumption on his part? With all due respect, your post--which does not address any of quickgtp's substance--looks like it was done simply to point out that you were a D-1 athlete (what substance is there in your response other than that?). So, in the words of a great poster here, "it's great that you were a D1 athlete". Perhaps you can drawn on that experience and provide a substantive response.
    I don't see any absolutes in my original post, though I'll grant it was assertive. "I have trouble with", "should be enough", "I imagine" and "I'm more inclined" were the phrases I used. I read quickgtp's post as more absolute than you did: "he will still get worn down".

    quickgtp's perspective as a former athlete is valuable. I did not intend to diminish that.

    The words he chose to begin his post after quoting me, though, "People need to realize" and "I know from personal experience", suggested to me that he was asserting that his perspective (that of a college athlete) was, so far, unique in this thread and so worthy of a certain authority. The point of my response was to note that other former athletes post here, as well.

    I don't see my response as particularly different than if I had bolted "I was an athlete in college, and based on my personal experience I have trouble with..." on to the beginning of my original post.

    If my response was too abrupt for your taste, well, I'm sorry about that. Again, I don't mean to diminish the value of quickgtp's experience, just to point out that a singular personal experience, while valuable, isn't authoritative simply because it comes from an athlete.

    Perhaps I was just overly sensitive to the wording of his first sentence "People need to realize" after he quoted me.

  11. #11
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    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    Through three games in the ACC we have seen Jon, G, and Kyle play quite a few minutes. I know some on this board are concerned about this...

    Is Kyle okay since he isn't playing out of position and is bigger now?

    Are the minutes actually just right for these three? Thoughts?

    Here are the minutes in the 3 ACC games so far:

    Kyle: 37, 34, 37
    Jon: 34, 38, 34
    G: 32, 34, 36

    NOTE: PLEASE, do not make this about where every minute should go (Marty needs 2 more... give some to E-will, etc...)
    I think that this is going to be a problem, especially for Singler. We have E-Will and Pocius who can and probably will spell Scheyer and Henderson at different points of the season and as Paulus get's more into a groove his minutes will go up. Plus Scheyer has played extended minutes for the past 2 years so his body should be fairly used to it.

    Singler is in a different situation. K doesn't seem to like putting Zoubek and Thomas on the floor together and when you pair McClure with either of them, there is a severe lack of offense available from the post. I have also noticed in the last couple of games that Singler and McClure have been logging significant minutes together which means that Singler is back guarding the opponent's largest player.

    Singler is bigger and stronger and I don't think you can discount another year of conditioning but if he keeps logging 35+ minutes per game with significant time spent at the 5, then I would be surprised if he didn't burn out by the end of the year.

  12. #12
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    Feb 2007

    Yawn

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    Through three games in the ACC we have seen Jon, G, and Kyle play quite a few minutes. I know some on this board are concerned about this...

    Is Kyle okay since he isn't playing out of position and is bigger now?

    Are the minutes actually just right for these three? Thoughts?

    Here are the minutes in the 3 ACC games so far:

    Kyle: 37, 34, 37
    Jon: 34, 38, 34
    G: 32, 34, 36

    NOTE: PLEASE, do not make this about where every minute should go (Marty needs 2 more... give some to E-will, etc...)
    Please demonstrate that playing 37 minutes instead of 32, or whatever, makes any difference whatsoever in performance. Please.

    Meanwhile, here are some numbers for you:
    Jon Scheyer with 30-plus minutes this season: 16.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.6 spg, .451 FG%, .852 FT%, .436 3PT%
    Jon Scheyer with less than 30 minutes this season: 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.9 spg, .407 FG%, .786 FT%, .292 3pt%
    Doesn't look like big minutes are hurting him at all. In fact, they seem to help. If you go back and look, this is a trend through his career.

    Kyle Singler with 30-plus minutes this season: 17.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.9 bpg, .450 FG%, .630 FT%, .340 3pt%
    Kyle Singler with less than 30 minutes this season: 16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.9 spg, 0.7 bpg, .521 FG%, .780 FT%, .333 3pt%
    Kyle's numbers look better in the low-minute games. Then again, we have to consider that those games came against weak opponents.

    Gerald Henderson with 30-plus minutes this season: 19.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 spg, .549 FG%, .778 FT%, .727 3PT%
    Gerald Henderson with less than 39 minutes this season: 11.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.2 bpg, .448 FG%, .821 FT%, .333 3PT%
    Gerald's sample size is really small, but he's certainly not suffering.

    From those numbers, we can conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty that logging heavy has not impacted performance in individual games. Maybe Kyle's shooting has suffered. Maybe. Then again, you'd expect everyone's shooting to suffer because presumably, guys are playing big minutes against better teams, who should be stronger defensively, etc.

    Now, maybe your point is that playing those many minutes over the course of a season will lead to tired legs in March. We've argued that to death over the last few years. Someone will point to Singler's struggles down the stretch last year. I'll post Battier's 30-plus-minute stats in response. Someone will claim that J.J. wore down. I'll mention that Shelden played just as many minutes and, over the last two months of his senior season, averaged 20 ppg, 11.8 rpg. 4.0 bpg and shot .556 from the field and .730 from the line.

    Then we'll have the same debate about how practices are far more tiring than games, and playing an extra 10 minutes of game time each week should not build up to some sort of critical fatigue level. And then we'll have the same argument three days later. Woohoo!

  13. #13
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    Sep 2008
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Please demonstrate that playing 37 minutes instead of 32, or whatever, makes any difference whatsoever in performance. Please.

    Meanwhile, here are some numbers for you:
    Jon Scheyer with 30-plus minutes this season: 16.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.6 spg, .451 FG%, .852 FT%, .436 3PT%
    Jon Scheyer with less than 30 minutes this season: 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.9 spg, .407 FG%, .786 FT%, .292 3pt%
    Doesn't look like big minutes are hurting him at all. In fact, they seem to help. If you go back and look, this is a trend through his career.

    Kyle Singler with 30-plus minutes this season: 17.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.9 bpg, .450 FG%, .630 FT%, .340 3pt%
    Kyle Singler with less than 30 minutes this season: 16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.9 spg, 0.7 bpg, .521 FG%, .780 FT%, .333 3pt%
    Kyle's numbers look better in the low-minute games. Then again, we have to consider that those games came against weak opponents.

    Gerald Henderson with 30-plus minutes this season: 19.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 spg, .549 FG%, .778 FT%, .727 3PT%
    Gerald Henderson with less than 39 minutes this season: 11.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.2 bpg, .448 FG%, .821 FT%, .333 3PT%
    Gerald's sample size is really small, but he's certainly not suffering.

    From those numbers, we can conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty that logging heavy has not impacted performance in individual games. Maybe Kyle's shooting has suffered. Maybe. Then again, you'd expect everyone's shooting to suffer because presumably, guys are playing big minutes against better teams, who should be stronger defensively, etc.

    Now, maybe your point is that playing those many minutes over the course of a season will lead to tired legs in March. We've argued that to death over the last few years. Someone will point to Singler's struggles down the stretch last year. I'll post Battier's 30-plus-minute stats in response. Someone will claim that J.J. wore down. I'll mention that Shelden played just as many minutes and, over the last two months of his senior season, averaged 20 ppg, 11.8 rpg. 4.0 bpg and shot .556 from the field and .730 from the line.

    Then we'll have the same debate about how practices are far more tiring than games, and playing an extra 10 minutes of game time each week should not build up to some sort of critical fatigue level. And then we'll have the same argument three days later. Woohoo!
    Thank you, Jumbo! I agree with every single word you said (except possibly the "39" which I assume was supposed to be "30," although I suppose "39" isn't really a word, anyway, is it?), and I'm getting quite tired of having this argument after every single game.

  14. #14
    I think that during the conference season, as the scouting becomes more accurate, opposing teams think they have ways to stop/guard/frustrate our players. We've seen it work in the first half of the past two games, when we've looked a bit tentative and not scored at will. By the second half, we've looked stronger than the opponents because we are settled into relentless defense and we wear them out. FSU in particular was completely gassed at the end of that game. They start losing their step, flailing around and we are lucky to always be ready to stick the dagger in on any mistakes. No other team can keep up on defending us because playing defense is boring and unexciting.

    But then again, sometimes the ball takes a while to warm up and bounce right for us!

  15. #15
    I'm going to guess that the ranking for record minutes played during a career goes as follows:

    1) Laettner
    2) Hurley
    3) Hill

    None of those guys ever looked worn down by the end of the year, except for Hurley's freshman year but we all know why that was.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilWolf View Post
    I'm going to guess that the ranking for record minutes played during a career goes as follows:

    1) Laettner
    2) Hurley
    3) Hill

    None of those guys ever looked worn down by the end of the year, except for Hurley's freshman year but we all know why that was.
    I think it's also safe to say that not every kid who dons a Duke uniform has the talent of a Laettner, Hurley, or Hill.

    So asking why minutes didn't effect these players like others isn't valid. Not all players are alike nor are all teams alike. Some have more depth with interchangeble parts and some don't.

  17. #17
    I think that a big difference between JJ/Kyle and Shane/Shel is that JJ and Kyle are the primary focus of opposing teams D; they face very intense pressure and relentless focus, and on top of that if JJ or Kyle doesn't score, we are doomed, whereas if Shel or Shane didn't score, they had guys who could pick up the slack and they were not the focus as much. Also, maybe the guys who Kyle and JJ are seeing against them are bigger or stronger or more athletic than they are, whereas Shel and Shane rarely saw guys bigger and stronger up against them? Are JJ and Kyle simply not in as good shape as the guys you mentioned? Do they play harder? Do they have to work harder for what they get? Clearly there is something going on there.

    Jumbo, let me ask this of you; JJ has spoken of being tired at the end of a few seasons, and Kyle spoke of it last season. Jay mentioned it during the last game, and plenty of other professional analysts have discussed it at length. If this is not an issue, why is are these people, who we assume know a bit about the game, bringing it up?

    I know this is a bit of a dead horse, and I know that both "sides" of the "argument" wish we wouldn't have it (for very different reasons, maybe) but unfortunately over the last few years it seems to come up again and again, and not always just on forums, but sometimes from the lips of Duke players and former Duke players turned announcers

    One note, as a former athlete; practice in no way, hope, or form holds a candle to real games, either in what is demanded of a person or in what you learn about a person.

  18. #18
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    Texas/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Please demonstrate that playing 37 minutes instead of 32, or whatever, makes any difference whatsoever in performance. Please.

    Meanwhile, here are some numbers for you:
    Jon Scheyer with 30-plus minutes this season: 16.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.6 spg, .451 FG%, .852 FT%, .436 3PT%
    Jon Scheyer with less than 30 minutes this season: 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.9 spg, .407 FG%, .786 FT%, .292 3pt%
    Doesn't look like big minutes are hurting him at all. In fact, they seem to help. If you go back and look, this is a trend through his career.

    Kyle Singler with 30-plus minutes this season: 17.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.9 bpg, .450 FG%, .630 FT%, .340 3pt%
    Kyle Singler with less than 30 minutes this season: 16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.9 spg, 0.7 bpg, .521 FG%, .780 FT%, .333 3pt%
    Kyle's numbers look better in the low-minute games. Then again, we have to consider that those games came against weak opponents.

    Gerald Henderson with 30-plus minutes this season: 19.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 spg, .549 FG%, .778 FT%, .727 3PT%
    Gerald Henderson with less than 39 minutes this season: 11.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.2 bpg, .448 FG%, .821 FT%, .333 3PT%
    Gerald's sample size is really small, but he's certainly not suffering.

    From those numbers, we can conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty that logging heavy has not impacted performance in individual games. Maybe Kyle's shooting has suffered. Maybe. Then again, you'd expect everyone's shooting to suffer because presumably, guys are playing big minutes against better teams, who should be stronger defensively, etc.

    Now, maybe your point is that playing those many minutes over the course of a season will lead to tired legs in March. We've argued that to death over the last few years. Someone will point to Singler's struggles down the stretch last year. I'll post Battier's 30-plus-minute stats in response. Someone will claim that J.J. wore down. I'll mention that Shelden played just as many minutes and, over the last two months of his senior season, averaged 20 ppg, 11.8 rpg. 4.0 bpg and shot .556 from the field and .730 from the line.

    Then we'll have the same debate about how practices are far more tiring than games, and playing an extra 10 minutes of game time each week should not build up to some sort of critical fatigue level. And then we'll have the same argument three days later. Woohoo!
    Please read my post again, and tell me how I supported the position that the extra minutes have any effect whatsoever. Please. I was simply asking for opinions on the matter since I have noticed that a number of posters have started to gripe about the issue. Spit your vitriole in a different direction Jumbo. I actually remain undecided and tend to believe that emotional stress has more of an effect than minutes played, but really I am just looking for somebody to convince me one way or another.

    ... and by the way, perhaps one of the hundreds of new posters around here have some unique perspectives on the matter. I keep posting on the same old topics, yet somehow one of the newbies always finds a way to add something interesting to the debate. You of all people should know this since every poster is a newer one to you

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueintheFace View Post
    Please read my post again, and tell me how I supported the position that the extra minutes have any effect whatsoever. Please. I was simply asking for opinions on the matter since I have noticed that a number of posters have started to gripe about the issue. Spit your vitriole in a different direction Jumbo. I actually remain undecided and tend to believe that emotional stress has more of an effect than minutes played, but really I am just looking for somebody to convince me one way or another.

    ... and by the way, perhaps one of the hundreds of new posters around here have some unique perspectives on the matter. I keep posting on the same old topics, yet somehow one of the newbies always finds a way to add something interesting to the debate. You of all people should know this since every poster is a newer one to you
    Vitriol. My post. I'm not sure that word means what you think it does.
    Was I slightly sarcastic in a couple of spots? Sure. Vitriolic? Not even close.

  20. #20
    Okay, I might be stupid, but is there a way to find top minutes played at Duke? I couldn't find it at GoDuke or Charlie, unless you go through each career individually... anyone know of a place of the top, or should I really look?

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