Offense...where is it?

[Devils Rock]

This thread is hilarious. What I mean is not that it is utterly without merit, but I took a quick trip over to IC today and if you were to read the posts from the Tar Heel fans, you might not feel so disheartened by our sometimes suspect offensive prowess. Many of the 'holes are totally freaked out by how they are going to guard Duke. I saw post after post of holes fans who said things like "If Danny guards Gerald, then we've got no one available to guard Scheyer or Singler. I just don't think we have enough good defenders to handle all of Duke's weapons. Plus their D right now is brutal and they are probably going to shut us down. We're in trouble if we don't get Ginyard back soon!"

Bottom line is that we need to keep some perspective. I agree that this team has looked sketchy on offense at times. Even though the game was ugly as hell, I love the fact that we won on the road by 14 on a night when we couldn't hit the side of a barn. We also outrebounded a bigger team and that is something that would never have happened last year. And for everyone who says that this is the same team as the past two years there are two problems: 1) it's not and 2) even if it were, the players are older, stronger, in better health, more experienced and more savvy. I like this team and even when they've won ugly, they don't give me the heeby jeebies the way some of our past teams have. With the exception of the Michigan game, this team always feels like they know how to tough out a win and get the job done.

I am adding this addendum to the post b/c I just saw JimBD's post which beat mine to the press and I should acknowledge that his points about specific offensive issues are accurate in last night's game and I don't mean to imply that we could not benefit from better ball movement etc.

[RelativeWays]

I'm a little concerned on how we've looked offensively the last two games, granted FSU is a rough and tumble team, but GT sucks this year and there's no hiding that fact, only UVA is worse. Last night we looked suspiciously like another Duke team with a great defense but a terrible terrible offense that had a hard time finishing, the 06-07 team. We have a lot more talent than that team but it seems like we're still struggling to find a consistency when outside shots don't fall. We have time to work on it. Zoubs with 2 pts and LT with 0 is a bit disheartening though.

[pfrduke]

I think back to JJ and Sheldens senior year where they won so many games, but not by wide margins usually.

That team won 14 conference games. They won those games by an average of 11.8 points per game. 7 were by more than 10 points. In the non-conference season, they recorded victories by such margins as 53, 29, 31, 27, 33, and 34.

More to the point, there are very, very few matchups in conference play that we should expect to win by 20 or more. If we play UVA at home this year, that's one I would put in the 20+ category. It might be the only one. Expecting to win an ACC road game by 20 or more is silly. It can certainly happen (see Wake at BC), and it's great when it happens, but it really can't be expected.

[-jk]

I saw - I think on kenpom - that gatech was the lowest ranked team in the acc at 101. There's not a horrible team in the conference. Period.

Everyone in the acc is going to be tough this year. Especially a certain cellar-dweller down the road.

Cupcake season is over. Please accept it: it won't be easy from here. (Even if we've been handed a great break from that particular cellar dweller - heh!).

Enjoy the ride.

And get emotional; it's part of the fun. But please keep it constructive and friendly. Self-destruction is ugly. Fratricide is uglier. We don't like handing out citations or closing threads but we do have standards to maintain. And we will maintain them, come UNC or high water. (And just look at IC to get a feel for what shouldn't happen here.)

Thanks,

-jk

[norduck]

I'm a little concerned on how we've looked offensively the last two games, granted FSU is a rough and tumble team, but GT sucks this year and there's no hiding that fact, only UVA is worse. Last night we looked suspiciously like another Duke team with a great defense but a terrible terrible offense that had a hard time finishing, the 06-07 team. We have a lot more talent than that team but it seems like we're still struggling to find a consistency when outside shots don't fall. We have time to work on it. Zoubs with 2 pts and LT with 0 is a bit disheartening though.

Agree, and the free throws have started to clank again.

[Kedsy]

This thread is hilarious. What I mean is not that it is utterly without merit, but I took a quick trip over to IC today and if you were to read the posts from the Tar Heel fans, you might not feel so disheartened by our sometimes suspect offensive prowess. Many of the 'holes are totally freaked out by how they are going to guard Duke. I saw post after post of holes fans who said things like "If Danny guards Gerald, then we've got no one available to guard Scheyer or Singler. I just don't think we have enough good defenders to handle all of Duke's weapons. Plus their D right now is brutal and they are probably going to shut us down. We're in trouble if we don't get Ginyard back soon!"

It's good to hear they are as obsessed with us as we are with them.

Personally I think this thread (as well as several others) is hilarious because it's hard to imagine a fan base being so negative about a 15-1 team that is #2 in the country.

[DukeCO2009]

Hilarious is quite a condescending word given the context of the thread. Confused, IMO, would be much more appropriate. Anyway, symantics aside, I think you're a little off-base with your comments. While some in this thread have indeed posted "negative" messages, I think you'll find that the majority of posts are quite well thought-out and constructive. People aren't complaining about the team being 15-1 and #2/3 in the nation--it's quite the contrary, in fact. Instead, we feel lucky that we are where we are; we see teams like Pittsburgh, carolina, Wake, and others, and worry how well we would match up with them. This concern is based off the notion that our offense has been struggling and that our defense has been carrying us to victories as of late.

While it's certainly nice to have half of Duke's game be among the best in the nation, it's equally worrying when a team like Elon or the Citadel drops more points on Davidson than Duke does. Teams are prone to lapses at both ends of the court every now and then--this much is obvious. If we were to play a high-scoring team like, say, Wake, a lot of us around here simply wonder whether we could survive an off-night on defense with our offense playing the way it is now. Granted, we've played against some tough defenses ourselves recently, but the mistakes we've been making have been fairly fundamental. They've been outlined pretty well in this thread, so I'll let you read up rather than re-hash them myself.

Are some posters being alarmist? Without a doubt they are. Others, though, are not just reacting to the Tech game. We've played poorly on the offensive end for four straight games now. I don't think it's time to hit the panic button, but certainly the DBR can indulge in some collective analysis, can't it?

[norduck]

Hilarious is quite a condescending word given the context of the thread. Confused, IMO, would be much more appropriate. Anyway, symantics aside, I think you're a little off-base with your comments. While some in this thread have indeed posted "negative" messages, I think you'll find that the majority of posts are quite well thought-out and constructive. People aren't complaining about the team being 15-1 and #2/3 in the nation--it's quite the contrary, in fact. Instead, we feel lucky that we are where we are; we see teams like Pittsburgh, carolina, Wake, and others, and worry how well we would match up with them. This concern is based off the notion that our offense has been struggling and that our defense has been carrying us to victories as of late.

While it's certainly nice to have half of Duke's game be among the best in the nation, it's equally worrying when a team like Elon or the Citadel drops more points on Davidson than Duke does. Teams are prone to lapses at both ends of the court every now and then--this much is obvious. If we were to play a high-scoring team like, say, Wake, a lot of us around here simply wonder whether we could survive an off-night on defense with our offense playing the way it is now. Granted, we've played against some tough defenses ourselves recently, but the mistakes we've been making have been fairly fundamental. They've been outlined pretty well in this thread, so I'll let you read up rather than re-hash them myself.

Are some posters being alarmist? Without a doubt they are. Others, though, are not just reacting to the Tech game. We've played poorly on the offensive end for four straight games now. I don't think it's time to hit the panic button, but certainly the DBR can indulge in some collective analysis, can't it?

Not an alarmist here. But March does happen!

[Bob Green]

Zoubek missed a couple of easy put backs lastnight,

Zoubek was 1-2 from the field so I don't think he "missed a couple of easy putbacks." The one shot he missed was blocked by Gani Lawal after Zoubek secured an offensive rebound.

[pfrduke]

While it's certainly nice to have half of Duke's game be among the best in the nation, it's equally worrying when a team like Elon or the Citadel drops more points on Davidson than Duke does.

It's a good thing neither Elon nor Citadel has scored more against Davidson than Duke did. Only Oklahoma and Purdue have put up better offensive efficiency numbers against Davidson than Duke (and only Oklahoma and Chattanooga (in an 85 possession game) scored more points in raw terms).

Don't just rely on raw points when games vary greatly in pace.

[Uncle Drew]

That team won 14 conference games. They won those games by an average of 11.8 points per game. 7 were by more than 10 points. In the non-conference season, they recorded victories by such margins as 53, 29, 31, 27, 33, and 34.

More to the point, there are very, very few matchups in conference play that we should expect to win by 20 or more. If we play UVA at home this year, that's one I would put in the 20+ category. It might be the only one. Expecting to win an ACC road game by 20 or more is silly. It can certainly happen (see Wake at BC), and it's great when it happens, but it really can't be expected.

I truly appreciate you taking the time to look up how many victories and the margin of victory for the games that season. But 11.8 points is by no means a blow out I don't think in anyones book. Meaning the starters were in until fairly late in the game, I would assume with over two minutes left. I hear a lot of Duke fans screaming Coach K needs to develop the bench more this and every season. The easiest way is to play bench players in clean up roles. But two or less minutes per game is not a lot of valuable in game experience.

The non conference victories for the most part come very early in the season. I have no doubts many bench players got plenty of minutes in those games. But when the action gets really heated in January and lasts for two straight months I'd be willing to bet those bench players played a lot less in that stretch.

I am not even suggesting the Georgia Tech game should have been a blow out like a lot of people, I just happened to bring it up after that game. So I understand people automatically assuming I'm screaming the sky is falling based on one game. I'm not. The GT game was an ACC foe on the road. Anything can happen and any win is a good win. But I will say I can think back to many games over the last five, six and seven years where Duke got a big lead and for lack of a better tem did not put that team away. We have all seen Duke get up 20+ points with the starters in the game and Duke go to waiting until 10-15 seconds on the shot clock to start their offense. Now granted when you're winning and winning by a wide margin you want the clock to run down as fast as possible. Me personally I see the shotclock as your enemy any time it gets 15 seconds or bellow.

Perhaps its the wrong philosophy for me to think if you are winning the race don't take your foot off the accelerator. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems logical to me. But I will say WHEN you ARE up by a wide margin what harm would it do to sub a few players, keep going full speed and let those players get some experience in game at full speed? I'm sorry, I know someone is going to tell me I don't have three national titles and a ton of COY awards under my belt. But I have seen that slow up game bite Duke in the butt several times. In my opinion it cost the 1986 team the title and let Maryland break their ACC tourney winning streak.

At any rate I ddn't mean to hijack the thread. Frankly the offense doesn't worry me as much as most people. It just seems like when shots are not falling this team tightens up on the defense that much more and so far (minus the second Michigan game) has gotten it done. Honestly it seems when Duke is having a good offensive night they don't seem to play as well on the defensive end. But we will get a lot of answers one way or another against Georgetown about a lot of questions regarding this team. A win, by any margin would be great. But a loss might let the players, coaches and fans know this teams true strengths and weaknesses. Frankly I just want a win to let Mr Monroe know he chose poorly. But if he has a monster game I don't EVEN want to start reading the threads if that happens.

[DukeCO2009]

It's a good thing neither Elon nor Citadel has scored more against Davidson than Duke did. Only Oklahoma and Purdue have put up better offensive efficiency numbers against Davidson than Duke (and only Oklahoma and Chattanooga (in an 85 possession game) scored more points in raw terms).

Don't just rely on raw points when games vary greatly in pace.

My mistake--was looking at Davidson's column instead of the opposition's. I was in a rush to get my post written before I headed out the door. Thanks for calling me on that.

In any event, I think there's certainly reason to believe that our offense has been sputtering a bit these past few games. Hopefully we'll play better on Saturday. We tend to play up to good competition and down to suspect competition, and Georgetown is certainly a good, if not very good team.

A win is always a win, but if a coach fails to analyze his wins with as much scrutiny as his does his losses, he'll sooner find himself on the sidelines of a local YMCA than he will in the Final Four. As I've said before, I think some of the criticism and negativity in this thread has been ever-so-slightly over the top, but I certainly do not feel that the team should be above constructive criticism simply because it continues to win games.

Take carolina before the BC game, for instance. The team was undefeated, sure, but anyone who knew a damn thing about basketball knew that its defense was suspect at best. I'm 100% positive that no one here would have dismissed talk of roy & co's defensive woes simply because they had yet to lose a game. Without going through past threads, I would conjecture that, in fact, talk on the subject was encouraged: this was not baseless criticism, but discussion of a potentially fatal flaw. What happened next? I think it's safe to say that we all know.

The same goes for Duke. Much as carolina would be a nearly unstoppable force if roy could get his crew together on defense, so too would we be the odds-on favorite for the national title if we could perform more consistently on offense against solid competition. It's a fact that if we don't snap out of this funk, we're a fairly vulnerable team if our defense happens to lapse for a half. What's the problem with talking about this? So long as people are civil and thoughtful about things, I see no reason why discussing a four-game offensive skid should be off-limits or discouraged. Such behavior does not constitute being alarmist, nor does it show that someone is jumping to conclusions after one game. Four games, in my opinion, is a trend--a small trend, but a trend nonetheless.

[jv001]

While we do seem to dribble the paint off the floor at times. The offense is for the most part getting us good looks. We just aren't hitting the open shots. The only time that we seem not to get a good look is when we run the shot clock down and are forced to put up a contested shot. Even that doesn't happen when Jon has the ball in his hands. As long as our Big 3 continue to play well we will be ok. Jon will regain his shot and Gerald has really stepped up his play. I look for Greg to begin to hit his shots as well. The key is Zoubs and Thomas. If they can produce just a little offense we will be ok. Go Duke!

[MChambers]

we feel lucky that we are where we are; we see teams like Pittsburgh, carolina, Wake, and others, and worry how well we would match up with them.

If a problem is fixable, if a situation is such that you can do something about it, then there is no need to worry. If it's not fixable, then there is no help in worrying. There is no benefit in worrying whatsoever.

http://www.dalailama.com/page.54.htm

I suggest that we all enjoy watching Coach K fix Duke's problems! I have confidence in him. Of course, even if I didn't, I wouldn't be able to do anything about it.

[devildownunder]

This team does it with defense. There's nothing wrong with that. As we are constructed right now, we're one of the best teams in the country. If the offense comes around enough by the time March gets here, we may be THE BEST team and win it all. But even if that doesn't happen, let's not make the mistake of not appreciating this team. Not only for what it does, but also how it does it. Disruptive, destructive, suffocating defense that frustrates and wears down opponents.

That's a beautiful thing.

[Devilsfan]

Our defense is great. But sometimes our offense is down right offensive our fans. Where's JJ or Jwill when we need them. Maybe we can attract another great shooter soon?

[77devil]

Yeah. Honestly, this whole board needs to be shut down.

Maybe just a tad bit too much don't you think?

[DukeCO2009]

This team does it with defense. There's nothing wrong with that. As we are constructed right now, we're one of the best teams in the country. If the offense comes around enough by the time March gets here, we may be THE BEST team and win it all. But even if that doesn't happen, let's not make the mistake of not appreciating this team. Not only for what it does, but also how it does it. Disruptive, destructive, suffocating defense that frustrates and wears down opponents.

That's a beautiful thing.

This team does it with offense. There's nothing wrong with that. As we are constructed right now, we're one of the best teams in the country. If the defense comes around enough by the time March gets her, we may be THE BEST team and win it all. But even if that doesn't happen, let's not make the mistake of not appreciating this team. not only for what it does, but also for how it does it. Fast-paced, high-scoring, highlight reel offense that tires and wears down our opponents.

Signed,

Roy Williams and his Merry Men



Look, no one is failing to appreciate this team. We're just discussing as aspect of its play that could use a bit of improvement. Is our offense as bad as carolina's defense? No, but bashing the 'holes for playing on only one end of the floor while we're having our own struggles is akin to our entire fanbase sticking its collective head in the sand. Let's hope we play up to Georgetown in two minutes the same way we played up to Xavier a few weeks ago: let's turn defense into offense, rather than just playing stout D on its own. Go Duke!

PS: In case there's any confusion, I hate carolina with every bone in my body. I'm just trying to provide food for thought.
PPS: I have the damn flu, so it's TV for me this afternoon. FWIW, though, I've gotten a few texts from friends who have said it's absolutely rockin' in CIS today. Should be fun to watch.