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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Aug 2008

    Best Case vs. Worst Case

    Quote Originally Posted by bludvlman View Post
    If Gerald and Kyle stay we will be the favorites to win it all. Then we should defenitely go after Wall b/c who cares if he is gone after 1 year if he helps bring a championship in that 1 year.
    Best Case: Gerald and Kyle BOTH return. In such a scenario, Duke is a top2-3 team. Off the top of my head, I don't really know who the other top teams are. A couple fo teams are "rebuilding" and depending on how that goes this year/who returns, I am not sure who the top squads are. UCLA might look good, Tenn has potential, WFU might be good. It is not inconcievable that UNC is Fantastic, but that assumes they only lose their seniors, but who here thinks that will happen?

    In such a scenario, Duke is fantastic. We have three definitely great perimeter players, and one potentially great perimeter players. We are unstoppable. A couple of very good forwards would barely play. Wall would join an already very crowded perimeter rotation, which could really jam up chemistry.

    I think this is unlikely, for a couple of reasons. I think Hendo may soon be regarded as the second best player in the ACC. Pro Scouts will regard him as the best prospect in the ACC, and one of the best in the nation. At 6-4, 205+ lbs, with freakish athleticism, he will look great. There are some ball handling issues, and some outside shooting issues, but those aren't huge concerns. It is not that he is bad at those things. He is not great at those things. At worst, he is adequate at those things, and his athleticism, and defensive prowess' will more than compensate for two areas where he will continue to steadily improve. I view Hendo as likely to leave. This year's draft is a wasteland. Hendo will shine like a beacon in the dark. He is a late lottery selection if the draft were held today. With a great year he could be top 5, and that won't improve with another year in school.

    Singler could leave. I view him as likely to stay. But he could leave. His draft positives are IQ and skills. His negatives, or questions, are size and athleticism. He is too small for PF (NBA) and too slow(?) for SF. Unless that has changed this summer. He put on weight and got stronger. If he has a great year, and showcases improved strength and NBA quickness in an NBA body, something could happen.

    I say this because of the Kelly pursuit. He plays a similiar game to Singler. K asked Kelly to wait until after the olympics. After Beijing, K comes back to Duke, spent a couple of days doing whatevs, and suddenly puts the full court press on Kelly, even though next years team would have featured both Plums, Singler, Thomas and Zoubs. Why put the press on for a kid in Kelly who duplicates what we currently or will have? I think K got back and saw what Singler had achieved, and realized that Singler could have the type of year where a NBA jump is a possibility.

    If we lose both Hendo and Singler I would be OK. Duke would have to make a FF run and be dominant during the ACC, losing only a couple of games and really making a race of it with UNC. Fine. Duke has a great year, we lose kids early. That is the reality of College ball.

    Should we keep both, Wall is superfluous. He helps probablly, but it creates a logjam at the guard. John has indicated he is waiting tills spring to see who needs him/best situation. If we keep both, John looks elsewhere. Where would he fit in? Do you think he supplants a Jr in Nolan Smith? Smith will play a lot at PG this year, and will have another summer, maybe on a national team somewhere, to hone his skills. He would already know the system, his teammates, and his league opponents. He would be darn hard to beat out. Heck, it might be hard to get quality minutes away from him. Scheyer would play, TONS, and Williams would get quality mins at both slots. With Hendo and Singler, and the other Fs down low, Scheyer would not play at SF for any meaningful time. Wall has a tough time cracking that rotation.

    Should Worst Case (losing both Hendo and Singler) occur Duke becomes attractive. We would have tons of potential weapons. He would play a lot, maybe, and help a team make another run in march. UNLESS, he waits and sees Smith become a legitimate star guard. In which case, he looks elsewhere cause Duke doesn't need his services.

    His decision will be based on the best situation for him. He would help, but is not a need situation. If Duke makes a run, which more and more unbiased media observers are predicition, we might need him. Should that happen, I think he would show up and do some damage. This recruitment will take a while so just sit back and enjoy.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    UNLESS, he waits and sees Smith become a legitimate star guard. In which case, he looks elsewhere cause Duke doesn't need his services.
    I agree with most of what you say, but these days the #1 recruit in the country doesn't look anywhere because a team doesn't need his services. He's made it known he's planning to be one and done. If a team won't play him, they won't recruit him. If they recruit him, it doesn't matter who's already on the team. Wherever he goes, this level of recruit is going to play.

    If Wall comes to Duke, it means Nolan will be playing combo guard and Jon will be playing some wing forward. They'll all play, but they won't play at Wall's expense. Unless he's significantly worse than advertised, in which case he won't be a one-and-done, anyway.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Didn't see the question on Kelly on the previous page until after the previous posting.

    I can't imagine Kelly even thinking of the NBA until after his junior year. His parents are Yale alums, his mother is an academic, he is a superb student at an expensive, academically elite private school.

    Virtually every athlete who comes to Duke pays lip service to the value of a Duke degree. Almost all mean it to a certain extent. But I think Kelly is on the side of the continuum occupied by Duke students who have never set foot on an athletic field a day in their lives. NBA or no NBA, he strikes me as a kid who isn't going to lightly give up a Duke education or a Duke degree.
    Mrs. Kelly actually never went to Yale.
    She was a volleyball player for Villanova, before transferring to Penn.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The Triangle
    Where is any evidence that John Wall is a bad student? Is there a link or somebody with his transcripts out there? It seems this is one of those assumptions which has garnered speed over the years. While there could have been a little tude back in the day, it hasn't seemed to be an issue in at least two years. In my talks with Wall, he has been honest and upfront if not articulate. When I looked more closely at grade accusations, they seem unfounded. That said, a heads up for the Crazies - he will visit (unofficial) and or take in the Lenoir Rhine game. That's as much as I feel comfortable saying. Well, other than this - he is being looked at but it's too early to imply but so much. I wouldn't get all wrapped up in it as some did Boynton. Enjoy the season and see what develops.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by watzone View Post
    Where is any evidence that John Wall is a bad student? Is there a link or somebody with his transcripts out there? It seems this is one of those assumptions which has garnered speed over the years.
    Yes, his GPA is 2.6. Also, he's taking SAT prep courses to reach the NCAA minimum. I'd say it's safe to say he's below the typical academic standards of most Duke b-ball players. However, this doesn't mean he wouldn't be able to handle Duke as there have been players in the past who have shown that they have the maturity to work hard to be able to perform academically at Duke even though they did not have great high school academic credentials (e.g. Dockery). I trust the coaches judgment.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/highschool...ory?id=3610222

    In 2006, Word of God was one of 25 schools that the NCAA refused to accept transcripts from in its crackdown of "diploma mills."

    Now free and clear, Word of God founder and pastor, Dr. Frank Summerfield, has upped the GPA requirement for athletes from the private school state recommended 2.0 to a 2.4.

    Wall holds down a 2.6.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The Triangle
    Okay, then it's confirmed. Still, Dockery had similar marks and graduated on time. With his Mom's sickness and a few other things I won't get into, well, those types of things have to factor in. How much has this kind of burden effected him?

  7. #67

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Gotham Devil,

    Thanks for the correction Re. Mrs. Kelly.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by watzone View Post
    Where is any evidence that John Wall is a bad student? Is there a link or somebody with his transcripts out there? ...
    Quote Originally Posted by gotham devil View Post
    This quote evokes concern and hope:

    ...Wall showed some interest in Duke this past summer and the coaching staff recently reached out to the people in his inner circle. Duke pulled his transcripts and was pleasantly surprised...
    Having an "inner circle" can imply an unhealthy influence, a la Iverson or Melo when they are on the east coast. I know some of our kids have had "inner circles" of family, friends and coaches that have been healthy, so we might want to leave it to the coaching staff to evaluate. If his inner circle is unhealthy, it might be best for Wall to get away.

    It also sounds like the Duke staff if doing its due diligence on Wall's academic abilities. I only remember one player in the last 20 years having real academic problems, so it may be that we can trust the staff on that score as well.

    So the situation is that we had been holding a scholarship for a top 10 combo guard for next year, and that scholarship is now available. We now find that there is some mutual interest with the #1 overall prospect who is a 6'4" guard, who also has an interest to stay in the area to be near his mother, and who will be visiting this weekend.

    I think we should be enthusiastic and make him feel welcome!

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    "I only remember one player in the last 20 years having real academic problems, so it may be that we can trust the staff on that score as well."

    In the last 20 years I can think of Joe Cook, Kenny Blakeney, Tony Moore, Ricky Price, Greg Newton, and Andre Sweet missing time because of academics.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    "I only remember one player in the last 20 years having real academic problems, so it may be that we can trust the staff on that score as well."

    In the last 20 years I can think of Joe Cook, Kenny Blakeney, Tony Moore, Ricky Price, Greg Newton, and Andre Sweet missing time because of academics.
    Didn't all but one end up with his degree within the prescribed time?

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Many people care. College sports is about so much more than winning championships. For starters it is about developing skills that allow people to succeed in life. I don't know John Wall and I am not inferring he is a bad guy, but if he comes to Duke he needs to come with the full understanding that he will be required to be a student-athlete. I'm sure Coach K and staff will explicitly explain this to him and if they are convinced I'm convinced.

    I would really like to see the NCAA allow high school stars to go straight to the NBA but require those who commit to college to stay three years.
    i agree, but what happens when the high school star does not get drafted.what happens to those players, also why wouldn't the top 100 players opt for the NBA just in case
    Last edited by Carlos; 11-03-2008 at 07:13 PM. Reason: fix quote tag

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I only remember one player in the last 20 years having real academic problems, so it may be that we can trust the staff on that score as well.
    Greg Newton didn't fail classes, classes failed Greg Newton.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Cook and Moore left the program without degrees. I'm pretty sure Cook never got his degree. Don't know about Moore.

    Sweet was held out the second semester of his only year at Duke and transferred to Seton Hall. I'm pretty sure Blakeney got his degree because he went into college coaching.

    The point wasn't whether these guys got degrees or not but whether they had academic trouble at Duke. As stated before, all were inactive at Duke because of academic problems.

    Moore was the most confusing and most frustrating. He stayed eligible at Duke for 3 1/2 seasons, finally got a starting nod as a senior and then flunked out.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Cook and Moore left the program without degrees. I'm pretty sure Cook never got his degree. Don't know about Moore.

    Sweet was held out the second semester of his only year at Duke and transferred to Seton Hall. I'm pretty sure Blakeney got his degree because he went into college coaching.

    The point wasn't whether these guys got degrees or not but whether they had academic trouble at Duke. As stated before, all were inactive at Duke because of academic problems.

    Moore was the most confusing and most frustrating. He stayed eligible at Duke for 3 1/2 seasons, finally got a starting nod as a senior and then flunked out.
    Whatever did become of Joe Cook?

    We do hang the 1994 NCAA Runner-up banner don't we? I thought we wouldn't do that if Blakeney, Moore and Newton hadn't achieved their degrees. My understanding is that Sweet did graduate at SH.

    My point is that having an academic "setback" doesn't mean that the kid wasn't Duke material. Overcoming these obstacles and getting a degree makes the kid a success in my mind. I think Blakeney would be an example of that.

    I don't see the staff bringing in a kid with no interest in academics, or a kid with no chance of succeeding academically at Duke.

    The worst scenario in my mind is a kid that blows off class after the first semester of his final season. If Wall is that kind of kid, please let's stay away. But it doesn't sound like he is that kind of kid, and it sounds like we won't take that kind of kid.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    This quote evokes concern and hope:



    Having an "inner circle" can imply an unhealthy influence, a la Iverson or Melo when they are on the east coast. I know some of our kids have had "inner circles" of family, friends and coaches that have been healthy, so we might want to leave it to the coaching staff to evaluate. If his inner circle is unhealthy, it might be best for Wall to get away.

    It also sounds like the Duke staff if doing its due diligence on Wall's academic abilities. I only remember one player in the last 20 years having real academic problems, so it may be that we can trust the staff on that score as well.

    So the situation is that we had been holding a scholarship for a top 10 combo guard for next year, and that scholarship is now available. We now find that there is some mutual interest with the #1 overall prospect who is a 6'4" guard, who also has an interest to stay in the area to be near his mother, and who will be visiting this weekend.

    I think we should be enthusiastic and make him feel welcome!
    1) There's nothing inherently pejorative in the phrase, "inner circle."

    2) The staff has more than earned the fan base's trust, with respect to the character of the young men they have attracted over the past 25+ years.

    3) If there were ever a time that the Crazies should be loud and creative for a recruit, it's when the staff is able to bring in the #1 recruit in the country for a game [still a big deal, even at a program like Duke] and he's got a name that one can work with.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Van Nuys, CA
    Wall knows Ryan Kelly which is a bonus. I would be elated if John Wall went to Duke. Its a positive if an average student can get exposed to an excellent academic environment. Its not like we are taking guys that may have trouble with the law like UCONN. And in fairness to Calhoun he has turned these troubled teens into better characters. If I was one of the students that had my property stolen, I wouldn't want Marcus Williams or AJ Price getting a second chance period.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by watzone View Post
    a heads up for the Crazies - he will visit (unofficial) and or take in the Lenoir Rhine game.
    Thanks Watzone. I know that this may not mean anything, but I think this is great news. When we get a player in Cameron there is always the possibility that they could agree that it is the greatest atmosphere it sports and that gives Duke a chance.

    I also just wanted to add a fact about John. His father passed away from "complications from cancer" when John was 8 years old. Here is a quote from the ESPN linked I posted earlier.
    --------------------------------------------
    "Then she told me that my dad died. It hit me pretty hard."

    The effects lasted for years.

    Fighting, trouble in school and backtalk were a weekly occurrence, according to Pulley.

    "You wouldn't believe it today, because he's completely different," Pulley says. "But John used to get into all types of mess."
    --------------------------------------------
    I'm not saying that it justifies any bad behavior but I really think that this kid is a great kid who has changed for the better (not that he was bad to begin with) and I would love to have him in our program.

    Now let's listen to Watzone and welcome him to Cameron when he comes!

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Minneapolis, MN
    we will be putting it in the cheer sheet and i will do my best to get a cheer started to welcome him to Cameron Indoor! Thanks watzone and others for letting us all know!

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The Triangle
    Just make sure he's in the stands for sure, in that schedules and such can change. I will try to confirm he's there for sure. FWIW, no offer has been made at this time.

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