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  1. #221

    ...

    To be honest I don't want to act like i "know" what the coaching staff is thinking. I was surprised Duke stayed in with Kelly when we already had Mason and Hairston committed and landing him didn't scare either off. The staff very well might be trying to build more quality depth off the bench then they have in previous years...definitely not a bad thing...

  2. #222
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC
    The only problem I would have with Wall from what i've heard about him so far is his attitude.

    I have two friends (my age, Juniors) that played with him and watched him play at fivestar basketball camp this past summer.

    In his scrimmage, there was a no dunking rule.

    On the first possession, John Wall flies down the court and dunks over the man defending him just to show that he can.

    Of course he is immediately removed from the game.

    But he didn't care! He was putting on a show.

  3. #223
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Not conceeding anything to unc

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilCastDownfromDurham View Post
    We have much less talent in the backcourt and a successful blueprint from using multiple guards in a variety of ways. Calling this "overrecruiting" is ridiculous on its face and strike me as UNC talking points to try to knock Duke.
    I try not to conceed anything to unc. Our backcourt may be a little behind unc's but I don't agree its "much less talent". Lawson is playing great ytd, but the season is new. He still has time to blow up the chemistry at unc. Go Duke!

  4. Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I try not to conceed anything to unc. Our backcourt may be a little behind unc's but I don't agree its "much less talent". Lawson is playing great ytd, but the season is new. He still has time to blow up the chemistry at unc. Go Duke!
    Sorry, I was unclear. I meant less talent in terms of recruiting (fewer bodies) so more need to fill spots over the last few years. As of today I think backcourt talent is about even with Lawson/Drew a bit better than Nolan/Greg but Jon/Elliot a bit better than Ellington/Frasor.

    In terms of Wall's attitude, I know there are concerns. From what I've read he had major issues in the past shortly after all his family troubles, but a strong father-figure coach appears to have done wonders for him. For me, these issues will be answered if Wall comes because a) the staff (with Kelly's input) will have signed off on him and b) he will have committed to a stern disciplinarian like K, suggesting that he wants to put those issues behind him.

  5. #225
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Tim1515 View Post
    While I don't disagree with this for the most part...a lot of the difference is that UNC and Duke recruit differently. That being said. Lawson is/was a star recruit. Frasor and Drew were both 4* recruits if i remember and considered high quality backups. Green is much more of a SF and while Ginyard was pretty highly recruited it was obvious by the time Ellington came around that he would start.
    First of all, your statement about UNC and Duke recruiting efforts simply isn't true. We go after the exact same guys, especially since Roy has been there. We were after Brandon Wright, Marcus Ginayrd, Leslie McDonald, just to mention a few....

    This whole thread is getting tiresome. When I saw the topic pop up, I thought it might actually have some news regarding Wall...not the case, I guess.
    Last edited by Bob Green; 12-30-2008 at 03:41 PM. Reason: Fix quote tag

  6. Quote Originally Posted by Faison1 View Post
    First of all, your statement about UNC and Duke recruiting efforts simply isn't true. We go after the exact same guys, especially since Roy has been there. We were after Brandon Wright, Marcus Ginayrd, Leslie McDonald, just to mention a few....
    I think Tim was referring to quantity, not quality. For whatever reason, as of late, Ol' Roy has used more of a "shotgun approach" offering many, many recruits and looking to run 12-14 guys out for his fast-break style-game. K has tended to use the "sniper rifle" approach where he selects a few recruits and fields a team with fewer guys. Maybe that comes from necessity (academic for recruiting and recruiting failures for team size) but that has been the trend.

  7. #227
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    OK, sorry...maybe I flew off the handle a little too quick. My apologies to Tim.

  8. #228

    ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Faison1 View Post
    OK, sorry...maybe I flew off the handle a little too quick. My apologies to Tim.
    No problem...and thanks for the clarification DevilCastDownfromDurham...that's exactly what i was trying to say.

    I remember reading one a book about K early in his career. Early on he targeted a lot of guys (similar to Roy now) but really got burned on the recruiting trail. He decided to go to more of a "sniper rifle" approach and it landed him guys like Dawkins. He's followed that strategy for the most part ever since.

    Maybe recruiting has changed and it does seem like K is taking a slightly different approach (already having 3 guys locked up for 2010).

    That being said...K really pushes the "family" at Duke. It has some advantages...K is able to build a relationship with 1 guy and know he's the one they want. It makes Duke's offers to guys more meaningful. The downside is if he misses...there isn't usually a ready backup plan.

    It's easy to look at UNC's approach and think Roy knows best. As stated by DevilCastDownfromDurham he uses a shotgun...and it has been very successful...but think about the luck. Using this approach he landed Lawson and Tyler...yet if one of the other players would've said yes first, they might not be at UNC...definitely some luck involved.

    You can also look at Mason and Kelly. There is no guarantee they will be better then the Wears...but UNC could've potentially landed both of them instead, had they not offered 20 guys.

    using this approach UNC will always have a ton of talent...probably more then Duke. They are less likely to be empty at a position like Duke has been inside. UNC will, however, miss on big time players because of this approach down the road and sometimes get locked into guys that get passed talent wise over a high school season.

  9. #229
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Wait, I thought we were worried because Duke was only going to have three wing players next year? Now we're overrecruiting? I'm so confused.
    That is still possible. If Henderson goes pro and Marty Pocius does not come back for his 5th season of eligibility, then Duke only has three guards on the roster for next year: Smith, Scheyer, and Williams.

    We're not overrecruiting in terms of quantity of players, but perhaps we are overrecruiting in terms of quality of player. Next year, we won't need John Wall but who wouldn't want him (assuming Coach K wants him too).

    Next years team, even without Henderson and Pocius, will be very good but if we want to be national championship caliber, we could use more depth at guard. However, the argument can be made that Singler is capable of playing the 3, which would also give more minutes to Plumnee and Kelly at the 4.

  10. #230
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Agree But!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim1515 View Post

    You can also look at Mason and Kelly. There is no guarantee they will be better then the Wears...but UNC could've potentially landed both of them instead, had they not offered 20 guys.

    using this approach UNC will always have a ton of talent...probably more then Duke. They are less likely to be empty at a position like Duke has been inside. UNC will, however, miss on big time players because of this approach down the road and sometimes get locked into guys that get passed talent wise over a high school season.
    Yes unc may get more talent, but we have Coach K and they have ole roy. I had rather have Coach K with his recruits than have roy with his. Go Duke!

  11. #231

    Question

    I'm a bit confused. I realize that John Wall is a phenomenal talent, but is this thread really going anywhere? I mean, in perfect honesty, I doubt he'll even come to Duke next year, as much as I'd love to have him here. From what I know, he's good enough to go straight to the pros after a year in college. He's giving Memphis a good look because their program does a good job developing star talent for immediate transition into the NBA (Derrick Rose), and their offensive game plan (fast paced, fast break/transition style offense) allows for flashy guys like Wall to really shine. Surely he knows all of this, and he also knows that the system here at Duke is probably not the best fit for his style of play. However, I have heard that he'd like to stay close to home because of his mother's health, which is why NC State is high on his radar too. Another option would be going to an up-and-coming program like Baylor, which would allow him to put up gaudy numbers right off the bat.

    So being realistic, do we actually have a decent shot at getting Wall at all? What incentives would he have to come here, if he's only planning to jump straight to the pros? Like we've said before, he's not even guaranteed to start, and he's probably heard (from Calipari, I'm sure) that he has the potential to be the next Derrick Rose at Memphis. I mean sure, there's Coach K here at Duke, but does it really matter if he's only going to stay for a year?

  12. #232
    Quote Originally Posted by TaiAdmiral View Post
    I'm a bit confused. I realize that John Wall is a phenomenal talent, but is this thread really going anywhere? I mean, in perfect honesty, I doubt he'll even come to Duke next year, as much as I'd love to have him here. From what I know, he's good enough to go straight to the pros after a year in college. He's giving Memphis a good look because their program does a good job developing star talent for immediate transition into the NBA (Derrick Rose), and their offensive game plan (fast paced, fast break/transition style offense) allows for flashy guys like Wall to really shine. Surely he knows all of this, and he also knows that the system here at Duke is probably not the best fit for his style of play. However, I have heard that he'd like to stay close to home because of his mother's health, which is why NC State is high on his radar too. Another option would be going to an up-and-coming program like Baylor, which would allow him to put up gaudy numbers right off the bat.

    So being realistic, do we actually have a decent shot at getting Wall at all? What incentives would he have to come here, if he's only planning to jump straight to the pros? Like we've said before, he's not even guaranteed to start, and he's probably heard (from Calipari, I'm sure) that he has the potential to be the next Derrick Rose at Memphis. I mean sure, there's Coach K here at Duke, but does it really matter if he's only going to stay for a year?
    He likes Memphis because of Rose being his idol.
    He likes Baylor and they got one of his handlers a job at the school
    He likes NC State and Duke because of being close to home.

    He himself stated that he'd like to be one and done. One thing he said he liked about Sidney Lowe was his understanding of the NBA (that was before Duke ever entered the picture). Obviously K now has some strong ties to the NBA also.

    If i had to guess...it comes down to Duke, Baylor and Memphis...with Baylor being the heavy favorite. The only way Wall comes to Duke is if he indeed did grow up a lot...or plans too...and hopes Duke's image will help his. He also knows Duke will get a ton of exposure.

  13. I've been a critic of the "sniper rifle" approach, and it's easy to be critical after a spectacular meltdown like the Deng/Hump/Liv fiasco; losing 3 signed top-5 players within a few months of each other would cripple any program.

    That said, I think there are two factors that have made the sniper rifle approach look much worse and the shotgun approach look much better:

    a) Hans significantly overachieving at the same time as Josh underperformed. If both of those guys lived up/down to their rankings I think Duke is ahead of UNC over the last 4 seasons.

    b) We've basically been running the program with half (or less) of K since 2004. I don't regret the decision, it may pay dividends in the long run, and I totally understand why it would be a no-brainer for K. But the Olympics commitment left our recruiting, our team/player development, and our in-game stuff out to dry in a major way. Not having K around to meet kids and build those relationships hurt us. A lot. To strain a metaphor well beyond the breaking point, without his steady hand the sniper rifle just wasn't on target.

    Getting back to Wall and next season, I think he's more of a need than some folks are suggesting. As of now we have 1 guy who can play the point next season, and he's a natural 2 trying to learn a new role. 30 minutes of Nolan with 10 of Jon wouldn't be terrible, but it wouldn't be great either.

    As we saw when Jon took that role before, it really impacts the other aspects of your game. If we have any health issues we are sunk. We'll be in danger every time Nolan get 2 fouls in a half, which will really hurt his D. Another serviceable PG is, IMO, a need for us. And John Wall is much more than serviceable. He's clearly the best PG and arguably the best player in his class. He simply has vision and creative ability that no other guys on our roster have.

    We'll be a very good team next year no matter what. We've got some good depth, a strong recruiting class, and, as hustondukie noted, K's a pretty good coach, especially when we have his full attention. I don't think we'll have any idea about Wall for several months, so this is all idle speculation, but I think our team makes a quantum leap if he decides to join the party.

  14. #234
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Here's why this is a silly conversation. There is very little chance that both G and Wall will be on the team next year. Even if you think Duke has a good shot at Wall (and he hasn't even been offered a scholarship yet), it's still well below a 50% chance. And I'd put the odds of G turning pro at greater than 50%. We should be so lucky to have the problem of figuring out who starts. Just having one of them on the team next year would be nice.
    I haven't really seen any draft projections (all be it December) having G top 20. Also, him and his dad should know, G has alot of room to improve and it is not like other kids who have to leave for the money. Gerald's dad isn't to bad off and is still very prominent in the basketball community (Sixers Post-Game Analyst in Philly) and should have enough of a grasp on the situation to know G would only benefit in staying for a senior year.

    Also, I really haven't seen anywhere but how long does Wall intend on staying. NBA Draft.net (I know, consider the source) but is the projected top-pick in 2010. I just don't know if it would be in our best interest to be so hung up over a 1 or 2 year player, when we have started to have success with 3 and 4 year players.

  15. #235
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilCastDownfromDurham View Post
    I've been a critic of the "sniper rifle" approach, and it's easy to be critical after a spectacular meltdown like the Deng/Hump/Liv fiasco; losing 3 signed top-5 players within a few months of each other would cripple any program.

    That said, I think there are two factors that have made the sniper rifle approach look much worse and the shotgun approach look much better:

    a) Hans significantly overachieving at the same time as Josh underperformed. If both of those guys lived up/down to their rankings I think Duke is ahead of UNC over the last 4 seasons.

    b) We've basically been running the program with half (or less) of K since 2004. I don't regret the decision, it may pay dividends in the long run, and I totally understand why it would be a no-brainer for K. But the Olympics commitment left our recruiting, our team/player development, and our in-game stuff out to dry in a major way. Not having K around to meet kids and build those relationships hurt us. A lot. To strain a metaphor well beyond the breaking point, without his steady hand the sniper rifle just wasn't on target.

    Getting back to Wall and next season, I think he's more of a need than some folks are suggesting. As of now we have 1 guy who can play the point next season, and he's a natural 2 trying to learn a new role. 30 minutes of Nolan with 10 of Jon wouldn't be terrible, but it wouldn't be great either.

    As we saw when Jon took that role before, it really impacts the other aspects of your game. If we have any health issues we are sunk. We'll be in danger every time Nolan get 2 fouls in a half, which will really hurt his D. Another serviceable PG is, IMO, a need for us. And John Wall is much more than serviceable. He's clearly the best PG and arguably the best player in his class. He simply has vision and creative ability that no other guys on our roster have.

    We'll be a very good team next year no matter what. We've got some good depth, a strong recruiting class, and, as hustondukie noted, K's a pretty good coach, especially when we have his full attention. I don't think we'll have any idea about Wall for several months, so this is all idle speculation, but I think our team makes a quantum leap if he decides to join the party.

    Very good point. 2007 we saw Jon have to play more PG and that takes away from his offensive strengths. Hopefully by that point Nolan will have adjusted and he will be a PG, not just a kid learning to do it.

    I also wouldn't be stunned if Duke can't land Wall, they go to E-dub running the point in spots being that he is a combo guard, similar to what Nolan was when we got him.

  16. Quote Originally Posted by geraldsneighbor View Post
    Very good point. 2007 we saw Jon have to play more PG and that takes away from his offensive strengths. Hopefully by that point Nolan will have adjusted and he will be a PG, not just a kid learning to do it.

    I also wouldn't be stunned if Duke can't land Wall, they go to E-dub running the point in spots being that he is a combo guard, similar to what Nolan was when we got him.
    We may do that, but I'm not sure Email is ready for any serious time at the PG spot. I love his rebounding and scoring and I'm afraid we'll do more harm to that than we'd like.

    I think Duke has more going for Wall than just location. We've on national TV all season, we put guys in the NBA as well or better than anyone in the nation, we have one of the top hospitals in the nation for his mom, and I think it would be great for his development and his rep. He'd also be stepping into a situation where he could be the starting PG for a strong title favorite. Baylor, State, etc don't have most of those things.

    Time will tell, Knight is still an amazing PG in his own right (although I'm getting pretty gun shy about going up against Billy D after losing our entire class to him this year). Obviously we'll be alright no matter what he, or any specific recruit decides. But let's not play it off like Wall is some luxury recruit that wouldn't give us anything we don't already have.

  17. #237
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Let's hope a new scope was under the sniper's tree at Christmas. He may need it to bag a prize buck like Wall.

  18. #238

    VT game

    John Wall attended the VT game last night. I sat in the grad student section and he sat right behind the bench. After the game, Carawell appeared to be taking him towards the locker room area. Does anyone have any inside information as to whether we offered him a scholarship last night or further details?

  19. Here's a possible scenario...

    1. The 2009 draft is one of the weakest in years, with no outstanding freshmen and few outstanding upperclassmen.

    2. Duke wins the national championship (squashing UNC in the final game of course!).

    3. Four players (Kyle, Jon, Gerald and Nolan) averaged double digits in a dominating display of basketball worthy of a champion.

    4. All of a sudden people are talking about Duke players the way they did Rose, Curry and Kansas players last year when they put on a show in the NCAA tournament.

    In the above scenario, who is at risk of leaving early? If Gerald lives up to our preseason hopes, we can just about mark him as gone. Will Kyle stay if he is a certain top 10 pick? Heck, will Jon or Nolan stay? Especially if Gerald and Kyle leave?

    As long as Wall can be a good fit in terms of skills and chemistry, we should try our best to get him, because if the worst case scenario happens and four of our five starters (not to mention Greg, David and possibly Marty) leave we would be in big trouble.

    While I acknowledge that this is not a likely scenario, it is certainly a plausible one.

  20. #240
    Quote Originally Posted by jyuwono View Post
    In the above scenario, who is at risk of leaving early? If Gerald lives up to our preseason hopes, we can just about mark him as gone. Will Kyle stay if he is a certain top 10 pick? Heck, will Jon or Nolan stay? Especially if Gerald and Kyle leave?

    While I acknowledge that this is not a likely scenario, it is certainly a plausible one.
    Sorry, but I don't think the idea that either Jon or Nolan will leave early gets anywhere close to plausible. There's no chance of it.

    That said, I agree with your point that we should heavily recruit Wall.

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