Originally Posted by
DevilCastDownfromDurham
I've been a critic of the "sniper rifle" approach, and it's easy to be critical after a spectacular meltdown like the Deng/Hump/Liv fiasco; losing 3 signed top-5 players within a few months of each other would cripple any program.
That said, I think there are two factors that have made the sniper rifle approach look much worse and the shotgun approach look much better:
a) Hans significantly overachieving at the same time as Josh underperformed. If both of those guys lived up/down to their rankings I think Duke is ahead of UNC over the last 4 seasons.
b) We've basically been running the program with half (or less) of K since 2004. I don't regret the decision, it may pay dividends in the long run, and I totally understand why it would be a no-brainer for K. But the Olympics commitment left our recruiting, our team/player development, and our in-game stuff out to dry in a major way. Not having K around to meet kids and build those relationships hurt us. A lot. To strain a metaphor well beyond the breaking point, without his steady hand the sniper rifle just wasn't on target.
Getting back to Wall and next season, I think he's more of a need than some folks are suggesting. As of now we have 1 guy who can play the point next season, and he's a natural 2 trying to learn a new role. 30 minutes of Nolan with 10 of Jon wouldn't be terrible, but it wouldn't be great either.
As we saw when Jon took that role before, it really impacts the other aspects of your game. If we have any health issues we are sunk. We'll be in danger every time Nolan get 2 fouls in a half, which will really hurt his D. Another serviceable PG is, IMO, a need for us. And John Wall is much more than serviceable. He's clearly the best PG and arguably the best player in his class. He simply has vision and creative ability that no other guys on our roster have.
We'll be a very good team next year no matter what. We've got some good depth, a strong recruiting class, and, as hustondukie noted, K's a pretty good coach, especially when we have his full attention. I don't think we'll have any idea about Wall for several months, so this is all idle speculation, but I think our team makes a quantum leap if he decides to join the party.