Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
I completely disagree. When I was trying to pick a college, I had four very good, very different options, so good and so different I found it impossible to choose among them. I finally narrowed it down to two but I just couldn't pull the trigger. I wanted to flip a coin but I knew if I did I wouldn't trust a single coin flip (OK, let's make it two out of three, etc.), so I snuck into the computer room after school and wrote a program that would electronically flip a coin 10,000 times and then tell me which school won. In retrospect, I am really glad the program typed out "You are going to Duke," but my point is my inability to make up my mind was not because I didn't like any of the options but exactly the opposite: I loved them all, but none of them seemed head and shoulders better than the others.

And I imagine it's that much harder for someone like John Wall, who has so many famous and talented coaches all whispering in his ear about how wonderful it would be at their school. It doesn't surprise me he's having problems picking a school; to me, the real wonder is how so many top players find it so easy to decide.

Are you sure you simulated a fair coin? Or did you have a prior to skew the probabilities in Duke's favor?