3 "if's" that need to happen for 2009-2010

[Ignatius07]

1. 45-55
2. 25-75
3. 5-95

There is no way Boynton doesn't start if he comes to Duke. That kind of talent doesn't sit, especially when that player can't be stopped consistently from scoring.

Your first two estimates are legitimate guesses, but 5-95 that Boynton comes to Duke? You must have some information that nobody else on the planet has.

[dukestheheat]

houston dukie-

I do see both Henderson and Singler leaving after this year; that's not good news but we live in a different world now versus 'then'. The elite players don't stay in college anymore (usually).

dth.

[RainingThrees]

If Singler and Henderson leave it will hurt a little but we will be fine. Elliot will take over for Gerald and Singler's spot can go Mason Plumlee or someone from the 2010 class.

[whereinthehellami]

Your first two estimates are legitimate guesses, but 5-95 that Boynton comes to Duke? You must have some information that nobody else on the planet has.

Just my opinion after following recruiting for many a year and picking up bits and pieces from articles and quotes from the Boyntons. It would be nice to be wrong but i think the Kid has this one locked up.

[jv001]

This year's team wins it all and then everyone comes back to make it back to back titles. Well I can wish can't I?

[Classof06]

I still don't understand why people think Singler coming back is less likely than Henderson coming back. For starters, Henderson's a year older. Next, his game and style is much more NBA ready than Singler's. I'm still of the opinion that Singler is a four-year player. And that doesn't mean that he's not talented; it's about the way his skill set translates to the league. We've only seen Singler for a season and my opinion is certainly subject to change but as of now, he reminds me of a Duke player that plays 4 years then goes on to have a solid but not spectacular NBA career.

I personally do not expect Duke to seriously contend for a national title until 2009-10. As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong. Until we actually see the team, there's no way to know.

Getting Boynton would drastically increase Duke's chances in 09-10 but if he doesn't come then we'd need both KS and GH to return. That being said, if Henderson and Singler leave, I think that would mean Duke has the kind of season in 08-09 (FF, national championship) that I wouldn't bet on them having as of today.

[jimsumner]

"As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong."

I think two things have changed. One is experience. The 2007 team had one upperclassman in the rotation, a junior Nelson. Last year's team had two, Nelson and Paulus, with McClure and Pocius hampered by injuries. This year's team has Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, maybe Pocius. Much, much more experience.

The second should be a much stronger team inside. Start with a presumably healthier Zoubek and McClure, add the two freshman bigs, and finish with a stronger, more mature Singler, and I think you go from a team that struggled to survive inside to a team that may well be able to dominate inside.

You're right that pretty soon we can start speculating based on what we're actually seeing rather than what we think or hope we might see.

[COYS]

"As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong."

I think two things have changed. One is experience. The 2007 team had one upperclassman in the rotation, a junior Nelson. Last year's team had two, Nelson and Paulus, with McClure and Pocius hampered by injuries. This year's team has Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, maybe Pocius. Much, much more experience.

The second should be a much stronger team inside. Start with a presumably healthier Zoubek and McClure, add the two freshman bigs, and finish with a stronger, more mature Singler, and I think you go from a team that struggled to survive inside to a team that may well be able to dominate inside.

Jim, I agree wholeheartedly. I would also add that we can also hope for fewer injuries and other ailments. Not to make excuses and I know the team wouldn't make excuses, either, but Nolan wasn't the same after he strained his knee, Zoubek was hurt by injuries before the season started and then in the middle of the season, Henderson had his wrist injury, Thomas wasn't healthy, and then Demarcus had the flu during the first weekend of the tourney. Injuries are part of the game, but hopefully next year we'll have more luck. I still think we could've/should've beaten WVU, but if all of Jim's predictions come true and we're healthy, we won't look anything like the same team that lost in the first weekend come March.

[houstondukie]

I still don't understand why people think Singler coming back is less likely than Henderson coming back. For starters, Henderson's a year older. Next, his game and style is much more NBA ready than Singler's. I'm still of the opinion that Singler is a four-year player. And that doesn't mean that he's not talented; it's about the way his skill set translates to the league. We've only seen Singler for a season and my opinion is certainly subject to change but as of now, he reminds me of a Duke player that plays 4 years then goes on to have a solid but not spectacular NBA career.

I personally do not expect Duke to seriously contend for a national title until 2009-10. As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong. Until we actually see the team, there's no way to know.

Getting Boynton would drastically increase Duke's chances in 09-10 but if he doesn't come then we'd need both KS and GH to return. That being said, if Henderson and Singler leave, I think that would mean Duke has the kind of season in 08-09 (FF, national championship) that I wouldn't bet on them having as of today.

I completely agree. Singler is no rush to leave. He didn't even think about testing the NBA waters this past year.

Think about it? If Singler was thinking on leaving after this upcoming season, why wouldn't he at least put his name in this past year's draft and not sign w/ an agent.

Many college players these days are doing this in order to get a free evaluation by NBA scouts on things they need to work on. NCAA rules allows a player to do this only once, which means players have to use it strategically. In my opinion, Singler will test the waters after his sophomore season and ultimately leave after his junior season.

Predicting Henderson's and Boynton's decisions is much harder.

[Kedsy]

Think about it? If Singler was thinking on leaving after this upcoming season, why wouldn't he at least put his name in this past year's draft and not sign w/ an agent.

Because there's a limit to how many times you can test the waters and come back (and I'm pretty sure that limit is 1). If he did it after his freshman year then he wouldn't be able to test the waters after his sophomore year, which is the year where it will make more sense for him to try.

[houstondukie]

Because there's a limit to how many times you can test the waters and come back (and I'm pretty sure that limit is 1). If he did it after his freshman year then he wouldn't be able to test the waters after his sophomore year, which is the year where it will make more sense for him to try.

i know this. i said the same thing in my post.

[Kedsy]

i know this. i said the same thing in my post.

OK, yes, now that I re-read your post, I see it. My bad.

But I'm not sure I understand your assertion, then. For almost every kid who tests the waters, if the waters suggest the kid will go in the lottery the kid stays in. For a lot of kids, if it looks like first round they stay in. If you think Singler will test the waters after this year why don't you think he'll stay in the draft? Do you think his potential draft position won't be good enough? Do you believe he'll think he needs the scouts' opinions because K won't be able to tell him what he needs to work on? Why would he go through all that if he doesn't intend to bolt?