My sense of things, based on reading a lot (articles about his recruitment and Patrick's statements in particular) but no inside information whatsoever, is that he likes all 3 coaches (with, perhaps, a particular preference for Tubby), enjoyed the larger school feel at UF and UK, but is also a kid who values the Duke name, academically (not that UK, or UF in particular, aren't good schools).
Since his parents are apparently following him whereever, their location preference being an unknown is a likely mild X factor.
My best guess is that Donovan at Kentucky would be tough to beat (especially if he wins another NC), unless the Tubby relationship really sours Patrick(and his family) on the UK fans/administration. Nevertheless, the biggest thing in Duke's favor is that Patrick got to spend the week with our other 3 recruits and then plays again with N. Smith and K. Singler at the upcoming Nike summit. Hopefully, he sees how much fun (and what an opportunity) it'd be to play with those guys, and recognizes the value of being in a stable program rather than one in transition.
I'd love it if he came to Duke and I think he'd be a great fit, garnering solid minutes (and maximizing his NBA exposure). I also love Durham and hope that his folks would appreciate the family atmosphere of Duke Basketball.
While him coming to Duke, I believe, would be the best situation for him and for Duke next year, we'll be o.k. without him too. Unless you have some special knowledge re: Thomas or Zoubek being uncompetitive and lazy, they will work hard to improve their strength, size and skills this summer. As I've noted before, for whatever it's worth, they were particularly young Freshmen, so they likely have the most to gain from a summer's hard work.
Join us Patrick!, but in any event, Go Lance!, Go Brian!, Go Duke!, GTHCGTH!