Reading the Tea Leaves on Patrick Patterson

[Uncle Drew]

I realize I probably shouldn't even question this with Patrick Patterson still considering Duke and the possibility he or a family member may read this. But what are your impressions of Patrick Patterson as a player. He's ranked 15th in the nation which has to mean he has some skills. But I watched him in an ESPN HS game a month or so back which turned out to be the OJ Mayo show. How has he done in open tournaments, and most importantly how is his rebounding? I'd love to see the guy go to Duke, especially if McRoberts goes pro. I just wonder exactly how good he is right now and how good he might possibly be down the road.

[chrisheery]

he is unreal. the perfect fit for duke. the type of player who will get his jersey retired and win a national championship (or two or three) and win player of the year a couple times. he will go on to be the number one overall pick. he is amazing.

patrick, you hear all that? see you in blue next year? yes?

[CMS2478]

he is unreal. the perfect fit for duke. the type of player who will get his jersey retired and win a national championship (or two or three) and win player of the year a couple times. he will go on to be the number one overall pick. he is amazing.

patrick, you hear all that? see you in blue next year? yes?

I'm thinking you are predicting the best case scenario, but hey "way to think positive." However, Patterson is really good from the vidoes I have seen and seeing him play in person a couple of times. I agree that Mayo took most of the spotlight, but he gets a lot of "garbage points" and plays defense and rebounds well. I think he is drawing comparisons to Elton Brand the way he is a beast down low. If and when he comes to Duke and works on his offensive game (since Mayo won't be there to ball-hog the whole time) he could be really special.

[dukeimac]

Patterson is a great talent. With Josh gone this guy will get a lot of playing time next year, and I think that is a good thing.

Patterson and the other freshman coming in should get a lot of playing time together and great things will happen with this crop of talent.

[evrdukie]

McRoberts wasn't necessarily the answer for Duke next year, but the climb back just got a lot steeper. Not good news.

[CMS2478]

McRoberts wasn't necessarily the answer for Duke next year, but the climb back just got a lot steeper. Not good news.

The only good part that could come from this might be that Duke looks more intriguing now that there is a starting spot available. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

For Patterson.........forgot that part.

[efudd]

If the coaches knew McBob was leaving, they have conveyed that to Patterson. Is it a bad sign that he has not signed/declared?

[dukerev]

It shouldn't be a good sign or a bad sign that PP hasn't declared (for Duke or anyone else). He said early on that he would cut his list down to 3 schools at the end of March and make his final decision in April. While McRoberts leaving Duke (early) is probably a factor in PP's decision, why would he immediately declare before he said he would? We'll just have to be patient with Patterson, the same way we were with Lance.

[Duke15304]

Patrick is very important so its hard to be patient, but i understand we will have to wait

[Dukefan4Life]

I have never seem PP play, but from what i hear he is a killer inside and rebounds very well! I would really like to see him play for us next season. with josh going pro, I dont like our chances with Z maning the middle next year on his own!

[arnie]

I've watched him play and he is a real beast. On local radio they were comparing him strongly to Shelden at this point in his career. He will be a tremendous help to the program if we can land him. He is NOT at all similar to other big men we have recruited in the past few years - he plays inside, can catch the ball and is very, very strong.

[Beezer7]

Is he explosive inside and does he have good hops?

[ikiru36]

Though others could likely share more insight, I have read a bit as well as seen Patterson play on TV a few times. As for recent Duke references, Boozer and Shelden most come to mind, though perhaps a notch below each in terms of clearly standing out as a dominant force. He's probably a bit more coordinated/mobile (like Boozer) but with long arms and good defensive timing (like Shelden). He has hops/reasonable explosiveness but there is legitimate reason why he's not a top 5 prospect. Basically, he's really good, but not a complete freak of nature (meaning that in a purely positive way, basketball-wise). He is pretty much consensus ranked between #10 and #15 in a solid HS class and is the #2 rated at the PF position. Importantly, he is also supposedly a good kid and excellent student.

He would, without a doubt, be an important player for the program as Brendan Wright and Kevin Love (I'm guessing) were the other players Duke potentially imagined playing the 'strong but skilled' PF position. This is a player-type which Duke has had excellent success in developing (Brand, Boozer, S. Williams) and which immediately earns a kid alot of minutes, so long as he has good hands.

All that being said, don't sleep on the potential development of Thomas and/or Zoubek this summer. They were the youngest players (age-wise) on our team this year and have a real opportunity to add some lean bulk which would immediately improve the solidly-skilled games they already possess and allow them the confidence while on the court to develop even further.

The other 'X' factor inside will be McClure who seemed to lose much of his explosiveness after his injury in the B.C. game. If he gets that back, while we wouldn't be huge with him in at the 4/5, we will already be very skilled and versatile, even without Patterson.

My general feeling is that without Patterson, unless Thomas or Zoubek make major strides (which they may), we'll be good-very good (limited mostly due to exploitable interior defense), but one more year away from being a likely Final Four contender. With Patterson, we'll have at least equivalent depth as UNC this year, and likely be a Top 8 team for most of the season (as we'll still be young), but a serious contender by February, 2008.

To me, either of these sound pretty good, but the latter is certainly preferable.

Go Lady Devils!!!! Go Duke!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!

[watzone]

I have seen a lot of people asking if PP was serious about Duke. Well, Duke has an in home visit just before the signing period starts. Duke is very much in this thing!

The relationship Duke has developed with the Pattersons is genuine. Sure, they made up some ground -- had to, but they are not about to back out of the race and keep in mind that Duke was welcomed by the Pattersons and have gotten to know them.

Duke offers PP a spot where he plays right away with a good supporting cast. UF and Billy D have done a good job of late, but the light is starting to dim and the reality is that if he was so certain he'd stay at UF, he would have announced it before the final four.

Then there are Duke fans that say he would have signed when McRobert's left, had he been serious. Uh, he has maintained all along that he would take the decision to the last minute and he will.

That said, be patient for Dukes sake. Don't over-speculate or create rumors unless you have some firm information. His camp does read the boards, and they pay attention to what is said.

So, please don't damage our efforts with comments like, I give up or don't care, or had he wanted to be a Devil he would have signed already.

It is not that simple folks! He wants to do the right thing and the longer it goes the better off Duke will be. Why? Because of what the Blue Devils have to offer.

Teams use neagtive recruiting tactics against Duke, but K stays away from that. In the end, his straight forward manner may just win Patrick over.

I don't think there is a single Duke fan here that can honestly say that Duke wouldn't be a great career choice for Patterson, especially with the pro track record, not to mention the many good citizens the school has produced.

As for his talent ... I have seen him play at least ten times, and I assure you he is a solid prospect. He is no Oden, but he is a player that can develop each and every year.

I think it comes down to this for Patrick ... do you want a friend or a mentor?

[vango]

GREAT post! Good to hear your perspective. Thanks!

[Channing]

Thanks Watzone - as always, your post regarding recruiting was well thought out and very insightful.

I have absolutely no sources whatsoever, but imo, the longer this goes on, the better change Duke has. The more PP weighs the pros and cons the better Duke looks (in my extremely biased opinion).


LGD!!!!!!!

[lavell12]

I agree that the longer he waits is better b/c it means he just wasn't waiting to see if Donovan was staying at Florida.

[mgtr]

Watzone-
Your insights are always worth reading and are useful. Keep it up!

[Gozza]

Thanks Watzone, that was a great post and everything you're saying makes a lot of sense. My question for you would be this: do you think that landing Patterson this year impacts getting Greg Monroe next year, and if so, would you willing to risk scaring off Monroe? I've been extremely impressed with what I've seen of Patterson's width, athleticism and rebounding, and I think he could make an immediate impact in the post where we will desperately need the help next year--but Monroe is ranked #1 in his class at Scout.com. Any thoughts?

[watzone]

Thanks Watzone, that was a great post and everything you're saying makes a lot of sense. My question for you would be this: do you think that landing Patterson this year impacts getting Greg Monroe next year, and if so, would you willing to risk scaring off Monroe? I've been extremely impressed with what I've seen of Patterson's width, athleticism and rebounding, and I think he could make an immediate impact in the post where we will desperately need the help next year--but Monroe is ranked #1 in his class at Scout.com. Any thoughts?

Absolutely not! Greg and Patrick are two very different players. Greg likes to float outside a lot and has a great handle (dribbling skills). Patrick is a true power player. The two complement each other, that is why Duke is after both of them. The staff doesn't hide that they are recruiting both when talking to them. A frontline of Patterson, Monroe, Thomas and Singler and King sounds pretty darn good.

Should Duke miss on Patrick, they will go hard for Drew Gordon, another power player.

The Blue Devils are very much in the selecting mode. They are going hard after players that fit their needs. In fact, I would say Duke is recruiting harder than ever.

A name to remember is Leslie McDonald, a player I mentioned in my premium section several months ago. He is 6-3 and very talented.

Monroe is a soft spoken young man with solid grades and willing to be a team player. His sister professed to being a Duke fan when I was interviewing her brother during an AAU event. It is clear to me that Duke is getting closer to championships than some seem to realize