I obviously have no inside information whatsoever, but the rumors were that Patterson was leaning toward Florida with Kentucky a second choice. Was he leaning toward Florida because he loved Gainsville or was it Billy Donovan?
As to Kentucky was it Tubby Smith or playing at Kentucky ?
If the answer to the above questions were the latter in both instances, then Donovan going to Kentucky , ( if that happens), would seem to seal the issue of where Patterson will wind up.
My sense of things, based on reading a lot (articles about his recruitment and Patrick's statements in particular) but no inside information whatsoever, is that he likes all 3 coaches (with, perhaps, a particular preference for Tubby), enjoyed the larger school feel at UF and UK, but is also a kid who values the Duke name, academically (not that UK, or UF in particular, aren't good schools).
Since his parents are apparently following him whereever, their location preference being an unknown is a likely mild X factor.
My best guess is that Donovan at Kentucky would be tough to beat (especially if he wins another NC), unless the Tubby relationship really sours Patrick(and his family) on the UK fans/administration. Nevertheless, the biggest thing in Duke's favor is that Patrick got to spend the week with our other 3 recruits and then plays again with N. Smith and K. Singler at the upcoming Nike summit. Hopefully, he sees how much fun (and what an opportunity) it'd be to play with those guys, and recognizes the value of being in a stable program rather than one in transition.
I'd love it if he came to Duke and I think he'd be a great fit, garnering solid minutes (and maximizing his NBA exposure). I also love Durham and hope that his folks would appreciate the family atmosphere of Duke Basketball.
While him coming to Duke, I believe, would be the best situation for him and for Duke next year, we'll be o.k. without him too. Unless you have some special knowledge re: Thomas or Zoubek being uncompetitive and lazy, they will work hard to improve their strength, size and skills this summer. As I've noted before, for whatever it's worth, they were particularly young Freshmen, so they likely have the most to gain from a summer's hard work.
Join us Patrick!, but in any event, Go Lance!, Go Brian!, Go Duke!, GTHCGTH!
Ok, call me a pessamistic fan, but at this point I am not very confident that we are going to land Patterson. Which in turn means that I am not very confident at all about next year in the paint. I think Lance will improve and McClure is good but too small and I think Z will be good his JR and SR year but next year will be the year he gets "thrown in there" and will be his developing year. All this assuming PP doesn't come. I don't think we win a national championship if he does come, but without him I think we could be in serious trouble in the post..............somebody please tell me I'm wrong!!!
Without Patteron - and maybe even with him - I think we need to try out a four guard line up, like Oregon this year or Villanova last year. We're going to have a fantastic backcourt, and I have a feeling losing McRoberts will end up being addition by subtraction in the long run.
Not quite sure why my post got moved? I was trying to get opinions on how we will be in the post next year with or without Patterson. The post wasn't to talk about whether we are getting him or not/how good he is
Does anyone have any idea on Patterson? Wasn't he supposed to narrow his list to 3 by now?
If we don't get him, I'd personally like to see him go to Wake. WVU won't use him, UK doesn't deserve him, UF has done enough winning for now, and I don't want to bring any happiness to the idiots at thesabre. I think at Wake he vaults them to a top 25 team next year, and after receiving the silver medal in a number of recruiting battles, it'd be nice to see them land a big time prospect.
CBS is reporting that WVU's Beilan to Michigan is a done deal. That is one possible suitor out the door (of the four possible suitors whom I believe to be serious). Without Beilan, WVU eats it, hard, and are too much of a gamble for PP.
Media outlets are begining to report that Billy D might take the money and run...to the League. They are saying that the Miami Heat, and the Memphis Grizz are going to throw redonkulous amounts of money at Billy D. He might listen because he is young enough, at 42, to take the money, and then come back to any college job he wants (probably in the NE) in a few years if it doesn't work out in the league.
Now, Donovan to KY probably kills us with PP. I think that would doom us, likewise with Billy D staying put at FL. I think this is what PP has been waiting for all year, to see what happens to his ideal programs.
Tubby was on shakey ground at KY, everyone knew that this year. Billy D was trying to repeat, and if he did (he did) then he might be a hot commodity and vacate the building.
Duke was a safe, stable, alternative where K was going to be, regardless. Good team, good coach, good program. But there is instant, practically guaranteed stardom at the other schools, which simply doesn't exist at Duke. Next year at FL or KY (or WVU) he was a surefire star coming in to replace depleted (FL) or untalented (KY) frontlines. Duke is a little less sure due to the unknown commodities of LT and BZ. If they improve over the Summer, PP's stardom is not a sure thing. At FL and KY, he can roll out of bed, start, and get the green light from day one.
But, PP doesn't want to play for a no name coach (FL) or renegade fan base (KY) if those teams are deprived of their current staffs. Billy D at FL or KY moots this point, but if the NBA comes calling, with 2 to 2.5x per year salary, Billy D might take it, and run. Then, Duke wins by default.
As an aside, please do not spout off about not wanting a kid who doesn't have Duke as his primary option. PP is smart, and he is doing what I think a lot of the Middle High Ranked Posts should and will do, much like LT.
PP is good, no doubt. But he is not big enough nor skilled enough to be a true superstar, regardless. If he comes into a situation where there is lesser talent or available minutes, then he can and will post solid to big numbers.
What I am saying is that he is not great enough to know that he will play wherever he goes, no matter what. At UNC, with Hans, Stephenson, and Thompson, it is concievable that he would be the 4th best player. Same at KS, UCLA, etc.
PP is smart. For those bigs (6-7 to 6-9 in the 220 to 240 range) ranked from 15-75, they should wait until the year shakes out to decide where the will fit in best. These players can be key contributors, but rarely superstars, from day one in the right situation. PP will have to show that he can play D, rebound, and make some shots to play in the pros. He will actually have to produce, unlike a Brandon Wright who can do a little of that but get drafted on potential. PP will have to be substance rather than style, and he needs 2-3 years, or more, of steady play to highlight his strengths and get into the middle of the 1st round.
He is smart to wait this long, and his willingness to play it safe and suss out the best situation is just plain smart. Duke-smart, if you ask me. K can work with those kind of brains.
While I'm not in the 'we're in big trouble without Patterson' camp (though I think we'd be a great fit for each other), Donovan winning the N.C. makes him tough to turn down at either Kentucky or Florida (unless they all returned again at Florida which seems highly unlikely), though I hadn't yet considered the Donovan Pro jump which would increase our chances substantially.
I'm not thinking about that one yet unless I hear more about the possibility, because Donovan's personality seems a pretty good fit in College (certainly relative to Pitino, who ended up striking out anyways) so the money would have to double or triple his other opportunities to be worth the difficult transition to the NBA.
Anyways, we'll see, but in any eventuality, I like the kids we've got next year and look forward to seeing them develop, 'cause the potential is there!
Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Agree with the observations in the Patrick Yates post above and speculate on how Donovan's future affects Patterson's choice as folllows.
With Donovan being king of the hill at the moment, he presumably will not want just any NBA job. The 2 slots I have seen linked to Donovan are the Knicks and Heat, although I doubt he would go to New York while Isiah is still around.. Since the Heat presumably would not announce a new coach until after being eliminated from the playoffs, that would take Donovan into May or June to announce that move.
FWIW my guess is Patterson will follow Donovan if Billy stays at the NCAA level; the question is whether Patterson feels like waiting to see if Donovan is going to the NBA.
Any big men (by which I do not mean 6'9 215 lb players best suited for the 3 position) on the Duke recruiting horizon for 2008-09?
Drew Gordon and Greg Monroe are two bigs for next years SR class. Although they are both 6'9 are very talented players.
Drew Gordon is mainly a post player, with very good defensive skills. Has very quick ups, and a decent vertical. Great rebounder and shotblocker. Would fit in well at Duke as he excels at defense. Dont know too much about his offense.
Greg Monroe on the other hand has been deemed the next Lamar Odem, A tall forward that can do it all(Loul Deng?). I know he can step out and hit the 3, post up, mid range. I havent heard much about his defense.
I know Samardo Samuels has listed Duke as a top contender for his choice, but I havent heard if Duke is recruiting him or not. He seems like a decent player from what I have seen.
1. It increases our chances of getting Greg Monroe
2. It allows for our other bigs (Thomas, Zoubek) to develop; both of whom are four year guys while Patterson could be out in 2
3. It means more playing time for Lance, who people inside the program identified as a strong future leader. I think outside of your true college centers (which are very rare), Lance will be able to guard most bigs. I'm also still skeptical that Patterson will be a better player than Thomas next year.
That being said, we would't be going after Patterson if K didn't think he could improve our team, so I do hope we get him. But I'm not on pins and needles.
Regarding Greg Monroe: I could be off base, but from what I can tell Monroe is the much bigger fish to catch than Patterson. Does getting a player like PP significantly hurt our chances of snagging Greg Monroe? I know that he has said he has always been a Duke fan, but what are the chances he decides to come to Durham with a log jam of LT, BZ and McClure all on the squad?
I mean absolutely no disrespect to any current member of the Duke basketball team but I seriously doubt whether Greg Monroe would be dissauded from coming to Duke because David McClure is already here.
I think GM is good enough (or at least highly ranked/regarded enough) that he shouldn't be worried about playing time anywhere he goes. At least I hope that's his mentality.
If he comes to Duke and he is not good enough to get significant minutes ahead of PP, BZ and LT, then he should want to come to Duke so he can practice every day against that kind of talent and improve his skills.
That being said, if he comes to Duke (from the little I've seen and heard about him) I would expect him to be a day 1 starter
I'd agree Jim; in fact, I could see McClure being pushed out of playing time next season unless his offensive game improves significantly. Of course the x-factor is how much his play was affected by hurting his knee against BC.
My analysis of Patterson is that he could definitely be very helpful next year, but long term, I don't think his presence will significantly impact Duke's success. I say that because with a front line of Thomas, Zoubek, and King with Singler able to play some 4 as well, Patterson would help a lot.
But in 08 if we add Monroe, then frankly, Thomas, Zoubek, Monroe and King is good enough.
That said, does anyone know how the Monroe recruiting is going. So far, everything I've heard has sounded pretty good but I'd be interested if anyone had any info of more substance.
Finally, McClure's success at Duke depends on two things in my opinion. First of all, if his knee injury did affect him towards teh end of the year, he needs to fully recover from that to the defender/intangible guy he was at the start of the year. And secondly, the guy desparately needs to develop a reliable jump shot. If he can do that, then regardless of who we bring in, I can see McClure contributing. Maybe not as many minutes, but still, a decent amount of pt.